铜是全球消费量第三大的金属，仅次于铁和铝。根据美国地质调查局的数据，美国大约有一半的铜依赖进口，其中大部分来自智利。 隔夜，美股三大指数一度跳水下跌，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌0.38%，标普500指数跌0.12%，纳斯达克指数涨0.15%。 消息面上，关税迎密集进展。 隔夜，现货黄金市场遭遇了"黑色星期三"，现货黄金价格单日下跌超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元，创下6月30日以来新低。今日欧市盘中，黄金 小幅上涨，目前在3310元附近徘徊。 降息预期大变脸！ 首先是，特朗普宣布8月1日起对进口半成品铜等产品征收50%关税。 当地时间7月30日，美国白宫表示，美国总统特朗普签署了一项公告，宣布对几类进口铜产品征收关税。 公告显示，将自8月1日起对进口半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器和电气元件）普遍 征收50%的关税。 当天，在白宫宣布这一关税后，纽约铜价下跌逾18%。 其次是，特朗普称美国将对韩国征收15%关税。 当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普发文称，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。根据协议，韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元，用于 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The Fed maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the July FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations. There were internal disagreements, with two governors voting against and favoring an immediate rate cut, but Powell's hawkish remarks at the press conference reduced the rate - cut expectation. The Fed may wait for employment data to weaken before cutting rates [2]. - Before the FOMC meeting, US economic data was robust, driving up US Treasury yields and strengthening the US dollar. After the meeting, financial conditions tightened, and the US stock market turned down, showing some "mild stagflation" pressure [6]. - The probability of the first rate cut within the year occurring in the fourth quarter has increased, subject to inflation, employment data, and the Fed's decision - making mechanism. The Fed is likely to wait and see based on inflation and employment data [2][9]. FOMC Statement - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Two governors, Bowman and Waller, voted against, increasing the easing expectation to some extent, but Powell's hawkish speech later reduced the rate - cut expectation [2]. - The Fed noted that economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, with high uncertainty, a low unemployment rate, and a robust jobs market [2]. Powell's Press Conference - Powell considered the current interest rate to be at a moderately restrictive level. Inflation is slightly above 2%, the labor market is robust, and the Fed has not decided on a September rate cut, waiting for more data [3]. - Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influence, stating that it makes decisions based on data [3]. Market Performance - Before the FOMC meeting, multiple economic data showed a robust US economy, with the 7 - month ADP employment increasing by 104,000 (higher than the expected 75,000), and the Q2 real GDP annualized year - on - year growth at 3% (higher than the expected 2.4% and the previous value of - 0.5%). However, consumer spending cooled, and there was "mild stagflation" pressure [6]. - After the meeting, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.79bp to 3.95%, the 10 - year yield rose 4.77bp to 4.37%, the US dollar index strengthened, and US stocks turned down [7]. Outlook for Policy Path - By the September FOMC meeting, economic data may not support a rate cut. The probability of the first rate cut within the year occurring in the fourth quarter has increased [9]. - From the inflation perspective, the Fed needs to see the peak of the inflation pulse caused by tariffs pass. The inflation effect of tariffs is slower than expected, and inflation is expected to rise rapidly in the third quarter [9]. - In terms of employment, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before the unemployment rate approaches 4.5%. Currently, the labor market supply - demand balance is maintained, and the probability of the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% or higher before September is low [9]. - The Fed's decision - making mechanism shows that although two governors supported a rate cut in July, Powell led the majority to maintain a relatively tight stance and a data - driven model, and the Fed's independence is well - defended [10]. Asset Allocation Views - US Treasuries: Due to tariff impacts and Fed policy expectations, short - term risks of US Treasuries may rise slightly in the third quarter, while long - term bonds may be relatively stable. It is recommended to buy 10 - year US Treasuries at a yield of around 4.5% [11]. - US Stocks: After hitting record highs, the US stock market may face short - term volatility due to inflation, Fed's tight - stance, and tariff impacts on corporate earnings. It is advisable to hedge short - term risks by increasing volatility [11]. - US Dollar: With trade partners' concessions on tariffs, the "de - dollarization" concern has eased. The US dollar may stage a rebound in the third quarter, and attention should be paid to its impact on the foreign exchange market and domestic monetary policies [12].

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with no guidance on a potential rate cut in September [1] - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, primarily due to reduced consumer spending and weak exports, although business investment, particularly in equipment and intangible assets, has increased [3] - The housing market remains weak, with a long-term shortage in housing supply and insufficient construction rates [3] Employment Market - Powell expressed an optimistic view on the labor market, noting that the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth is still outpacing inflation, providing support for consumption and economic stability [4] - There are no clear signs of weakness in the job market, which contributes to the Fed's reluctance to rush into rate cuts [4] Inflation Concerns - Powell stated that the process of bringing inflation back to the 2% target is more than halfway complete, with service inflation slowing but goods inflation rising [6] - As of June, the overall PCE price index increased by 2.5% over the past 12 months, while core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.7% [6] - Tariffs are identified as a new variable affecting inflation, with some goods becoming more expensive due to tariffs, leading to a slight increase in market inflation expectations [6] Tariff Details - Powell elaborated on tariffs, indicating that their impact on prices is slower than previously anticipated, and the current inflation data reflects only the beginning of tariff-induced inflation [7] - He emphasized the challenge of isolating the effects of tariffs from overall price changes, as prices are a composite result [7] - The Fed aims to ensure that price increases due to tariffs do not evolve into persistent inflation, balancing the timing of their actions to avoid unnecessary harm to the job market [7] Future Guidance - The Fed has not provided strong signals for the market, neither committing to a September rate cut nor closing the door on future cuts, opting instead to observe incoming data [10] - Powell highlighted the importance of upcoming data releases in determining the Fed's next steps, including inflation trends, the ongoing impact of tariffs, and labor market resilience [10] - The market is advised to remain patient and await clearer signals before making assumptions about potential rate cuts [10]

来源：星岛记事 美国联储局维持利率于4.25至4.5厘不变，连续5次会议按兵不动，香港金管局亦维持基本利率4.75厘不 变。汇丰银行今日（31日）宣布，最优惠利率（P）将维持不变，保留在目前5.25%的水平。对上一次 汇丰调整最优惠利率则在于2024年12月20日，当时减息12.5点子。同时，汇丰给予港元储蓄存款户口的 利率将会维持不变。 中国银行（香港）有限公司宣布，港元最优惠利率及活期储蓄存款利率维持不变，分别为年利率 5.25厘 及 0.25厘；渣打银行（香港）有限公司亦宣布，港元最优惠贷款利率维持不变于年息5.5厘，港元储蓄 户口利率亦维持不变。 金管局："弱方兑换保证"或再度被触发 香港方面，货币及金融市场保持有序运作。港元供应在5月初强劲资金流入后保持充裕，其后市场对港 元需求有所减少，套息交易令港汇走弱。6月底以来，港汇数度触发"弱方兑换保证"，而最近一次是在 今晨纽约交易时段触发。港元流动性逐渐缩减，港元拆息从低位温和上升，但仍显著低于美息。目前港 美息差对套息交易仍具吸引力，因此令港汇继续贴近7.85水平，但与此同时，近日股票相关的港元资金 需求甚殷，为港汇提供一定支持。往后视乎港元资金供求 ...

Group 1 - The article reports an incident where two Chinese citizens were severely injured by four unidentified assailants in Chiyoda, Tokyo, prompting the Chinese Embassy in Japan to demand immediate action from Japanese authorities to apprehend the suspects and ensure the safety of Chinese nationals in Japan [1] - The Chinese Embassy has raised concerns about rising xenophobic sentiments in Japan and has formally requested the Japanese Foreign Ministry to take measures to protect the safety and legal rights of Chinese citizens [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Embassy advises Chinese citizens and tourists in Japan to enhance their safety awareness and remain vigilant [2] - Recommendations include staying alert to surroundings, avoiding areas with high crime rates, and adhering to local laws and regulations [3] - In case of emergencies, individuals are encouraged to report to local police and contact the Chinese Embassy or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for assistance [3] Group 3 - The article provides emergency contact numbers for various services in Japan, including police, fire, and consular assistance [4]

格隆汇7月31日｜港股市场铜概念股集体下跌，其中，中国大冶有色金属跌超6%，江西铜业(600362)股 份跌超3%，兴业合金、中国黄金国际、中国金属利用跌超2%，五矿资源跌近2%。消息面上，美国总统 特朗普意外宣布，对铜加征新关税中，美国期铜大泻两成，创史上最大单日跌幅。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 最新价 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00661 | 中国大冶有色金属 | -6.45% | 0.058 | 10.38亿 | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | -3.85% | 15.980 | 553.34亿 | | 00505 | 兴业台等 | -2.94% | 0.990 | 8.91亿 | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | -2.65% | 7.7 ...

在8月1日关税最后期限仅剩不到24小时之际，全球贸易谈判进入白热化阶段。美国多个主要贸易伙伴的代表团正云集华盛 顿，与特朗普政府展开最后的激烈磋商。据央视新闻，当地时间7月15日，美国总统特朗普称关税征收将于8月1日开始。 白宫的最新动态加剧了紧迫感。据媒体31日援引一位白宫官员证实，特朗普计划在周四签署新的行政命令，对未能达成协 议的国家征收更高的关税。特朗普30日通过社交媒体平台称： "8月1日的最后期限就是8月1日的最后期限——它立场坚定，不会延长。" 与此同时，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称将从8月1日起对印度输美商品征收25%的关税，高于对亚洲其他几个国家征收的 15%至20%的区间。特朗普还威胁将因印度从俄罗斯购买能源而施加额外惩罚。一系列令人眼花缭乱的操作让局势更加复 杂。 尽管外交斡旋异常紧张，美国市场目前反应平淡，标普500指数触及历史新高。然而，部分华尔街机构警告称，市场可能过 于自满，低估了贸易政策转向对经济和市场的潜在冲击。 媒体援引一位白宫官员已证实，特朗普将在周四午夜前签署新的行政命令，以确定最终的关税税率。此举旨在避免关税自 动恢复到4月份首次宣布的原始水平。目前尚不清楚特朗普是会举行 ...

Core Points - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, effective August 1 [2] - The tariffs are part of Trump's ongoing trade policy, which has previously targeted various goods including steel [2][4] - Mexico, as the third-largest exporter of copper products to the U.S., is expected to face significant economic impacts from these tariffs [5][7] Impact on Mexico - The tariffs are projected to result in approximately $1 billion in losses for Mexico annually, as it exported $976 million worth of copper products to the U.S. in 2024 [7] - In the first five months of 2025, Mexico's copper product exports to the U.S. increased by 12% compared to the same period last year, generating $419 million in revenue [8] - The tariffs may also lead to increased competition among domestic U.S. traders, affecting the overall market dynamics [9]

想要评估关税对经济的影响程度。 从硬数据来看，目前尚未发现关税带来的重大影响。 植田和男：坚持要在自己任期内处理ETF事宜并非明智之举。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：预计今年下半年关税将产生一定程度的负面影响。 ...