Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in spot gold prices following the release of non-farm payroll data, with gold rising by $38 within 15 minutes to reach $3,340 per ounce [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a notable decline, dropping over 100 points to a low of 99.11 [1]

美元指数DXY失守99，日内跌幅1.02%。 美元指数 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. 2 to 7-year Treasury yields fell by at least 10 basis points following the release of the July non-farm payroll report [1] - Spot gold prices increased by approximately $30, currently reported at $3,334.34 per ounce [1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by about 100 points, now at 99.23 [1] Currency Movements - Non-U.S. currencies experienced a broad rally, with the euro rising nearly 1% against the dollar [1] - The British pound appreciated by 0.45% against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar increased by 0.6% against the dollar [1]

期货市场暗示，交易员认为美联储在9月会议上降息25个基点的可能性为75%。 美国7月非农就业人数增加7.3万人，预估为增加10.4万人，前值为增加14.7万人。数据创9个月以来新 低。 非农数据公布后，美元指数DXY短线下挫约40点，现报99.79。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index has decreased by over 40 points, currently at 99.78 [1] - US stock futures have slightly declined, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down by 1.1% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has decreased, currently at 4.395% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold has increased by approximately $15, currently priced at $3303.62 per ounce [1]

美元指数升至两个月高点100.171。 美元指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting recent exchange rate movements and the factors influencing these changes [1][3][6]. Exchange Rate Movements - On August 1, the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was reported at 7.1496, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous day [1]. - Both onshore and offshore yuan depreciated against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.2034 and the offshore rate at 7.2136, reflecting daily declines of 0.06% and 0.05% respectively [3][7]. - The yuan's exchange rate reached a two-month low, with a continuous decline over five days leading to a 0.38% drop in July [7]. Factors Influencing Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) officials indicated that the yuan's exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including economic growth, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The PBOC emphasized that it does not seek to devalue the yuan for competitive advantages and aims to maintain a stable exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [10][11]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the yuan to stabilize at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of the year, supported by improving domestic economic conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [10][12]. - The article notes that foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets are expected to continue, providing support for the yuan's stability [11][12]. Industry Impacts - The article outlines the potential impacts of yuan fluctuations on various industries, indicating that a stronger yuan could benefit import-dependent sectors while posing challenges for traditional export-oriented industries [14]. - Specific sectors such as textiles, aviation, and high-tech equipment may see advantages from a stronger yuan, while traditional foreign trade sectors may face difficulties [14].

来源 ：华北新闻网 7月31日，VT Markets团队发布最新研究报告，对近期全球贸易进展和美联储政策进行了深入解读。报 告指出，美国总统特朗普推动的关税政策近期取得了显著进展，全球主要贸易伙伴纷纷在8月1日关税截 止日前达成协议框架，其中包括日本、欧盟和韩国。然而，尽管在贸易谈判中取得了丰厚成果，特朗普 的另一项经济目标——美联储降息，却未能如愿。美联储主席鲍威尔的态度冷淡，进一步削弱了市场对 降息的预期，这也对美元指数产生了直接影响。 关税谈判进展超预期 日本欧盟天价协议换和平 日本作为首个与美国达成协议的世界前五大经济体，提出通过增加对美国的投资以及开放美国汽车和农 产品市场的方式，换取关税下调。7月22日，特朗普宣布，日本将对美国进行5500亿美元的投资，并允 许美国出口更多的汽车和农产品。紧随其后，欧盟和美国于7月27日达成协议。根据协议，欧盟将对美 国进行6000亿美元的投资，并购买价值7500亿美元的美国能源产品（未来3年每年2500亿）。7月30日， 韩国也与美国达成类似协议，承诺进行3500亿美元的投资，并购买价值1000亿美元的能源产品，加上全 面开放贸易。 这些丰厚的协议条件使得特朗普 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the ICE US cotton dropped 0.41% to 67.22 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF509 decreased 1.27% to 13,650 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 26,391 lots to 349,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,213 yuan per ton, down 130 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,325 yuan per ton, down 145 yuan. The market is expected to be volatile. The 09 contract has strong support at the previous low, and the 01 contract is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [2]. - For sugar, consulting firm StoneX lowered its forecast for sugar production in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's central - south region to 40.16 million tons, a reduction of 1.64 million tons from the May forecast. The expected total cane crush is 598.8 million tons, a 3.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season. Domestic sugar prices are down, and the market is expected to be volatile, with future import pressure gradually emerging [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: International market: After the macro super - week, the Fed's July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. Powell's speech reduced market bets on a September rate cut, and the US dollar index approached 100. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. Domestic market: The Zhengzhou cotton market continues to shift, with the 09 contract reducing positions and declining, and the 9 - 1 spread widening. The 09 contract's open interest has returned to the average level in recent years, and the net long positions of the main players have decreased. The 09 contract has strong support at the previous low, and the 01 contract is weakly stable in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: StoneX's report shows a reduction in Brazil's sugar production forecast due to heavy rainfall in June. Domestic sugar prices are down, and the main contract is shifting positions. The market is returning to fundamentals, and future import pressure is emerging [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is - 190, down 40; the main contract basis is 1,675, down 40. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,213 yuan per ton, down 130, and the national spot price is 15,325 yuan per ton, down 145 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 140, up 10; the main contract basis is 262, down 9. The Nanning spot price is 6,030 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,055 yuan per ton, down 20 [3]. 3. Market Information - On July 31, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,055, down 101 from the previous trading day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are provided. The yarn comprehensive load remained flat at 49.3, and the yarn inventory rose to 29.6. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained flat at 47.8, and the inventory rose to 33.5 [4]. - On July 31, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,520, down 226 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Charts for cotton include the main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [7][9][10][11][12]. - Charts for sugar include the main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17].

| 国内现货 | 国际现货 | 黄金实物 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | 银行 回收 | | | | | 品牌 | | | 价格(元/克) 日涨跌幅 | | | 周大福 | | | 998 | 0.00% | | 老凤祥 | | | 995 | -0.70% | | 周六福 | | | 978 | 0.00% | | 周生生 | | | 991 | -1.00% | | 六福珠宝 | | | 998 | 0.00% | | 我是章 | | | 998 | 0.00% | | 老庙 | | | | 992 = - 0.70% | 截至8月1日8时30分，国际现货黄金已跌破3300美元/盎司，报3289.26美元/盎司。 国内金饰现价也普遍跌至1000元/克下方。 据央视财经此前报道，市场对美联储降息预期遇冷，美元指数延续上涨势头，国际金价周四承压下跌。 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3348.6美元，跌幅为0.13%。今年7月，因美国政府 关税威胁，国际金价一度涨回每盎司3400美元关口上方。此后，随着美国政府陆续与主要贸易伙伴达成 协 ...