对此，笔者直接回应，不要惊慌。 星标 ★ IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 "怎么回事。"10月13日，投资者小叶看到A股的开盘，顿时有些惊慌。 沪指开盘大跌100点，直奔3800点，深创两指同样大幅低开。 张力制图 A股恐慌性开盘的一个重要原因就是股民担心中美贸易战再次开打。稍早美国总统特朗普表示，从11月1日起，对中国产品征收100%关税，并对 所有关键软件实施出口管制。 如何看待这些消息对A股的影响？笔者以为，在此时刻，作为投资者，一定要冷静，并对当前的市场做出比较全面的分析，不然会手足无措，应 对错误，造成不必要的损失。 从现实的角度来看，今天A股开盘就可以看出，特朗普的系列言行，确实造成了A股大幅度波动，这个不必讳言。天下苦特朗普久也。从第一任 期，到再次上任，世界各国就一直受其"美国优先"战略困扰。为了"美国优先"，"让美国再次伟大"，特朗普对世界各国动不动就极限施压、还经 常言而无信。不客气地说，特朗普扰乱了当前的国际贸易和经济秩序，为世界经济的稳定发展增加了更多不确定性因素。 中国也很难独善其身。经过数十年改革开放，中国经济实力突飞猛进，综合国力持续增强，然而和平崛起却被美西方视为威胁和压力， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

Report Summary 1. Core View - Short - term, contract 001 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic bean meal inventory. Later, attention should be paid to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [7]. 2. Summary by Related Content Supply - Affected by less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated 2025/26 US soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre by USDA still has room for downward adjustment. The recent less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to the harvest, but the USDA crop growth report is delayed due to the US government shutdown. As of October 5, the US soybean harvest progress is 38%. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 4, the sowing rate is 8.2%, higher than 5.1% last year and close to the five - year average of 9.4%. In October, domestic soybean inventory is expected to start decreasing, but the domestic bean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the bean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is uncertain [6]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Bean meal has high cost - performance and high feed addition ratio, and the downstream spot trading is good [7]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level. This week, the bean meal inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased and is at a high level, while the bean meal inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [7]. Macro and Policy - The Ministry of Transport announced that starting from October 14, a special ship selection fee will be charged for US ships, which is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump announced that starting from November 1, 2025, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Chinese imported goods, escalating the Sino - US trade tension [7]. 3. Data Summary Basis Data - On October 10, the basis of 43% bean meal spot in Dalian was 108, in Tianjin was 78 (up 17), in Rizhao was 8 (down 3), in Zhangjiagang was - 2 (down 3), in Dongguan was - 2 (up 7), in Zhanjiang was 38, and in Fangcheng was 18 (down 3). The basis of rapeseed meal spot at noon was 186, and MJ - 5 was 168 (down 16) [4]. Spread Data - The spot spread of bean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 320 (down 10), and the spread of the main contract was 27 [5]. Other Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium in 2025, the domestic soybean inventory, oil mill bean meal inventory, feed enterprise bean meal inventory days, oil mill startup rate, and soybean crushing volume data are presented in the form of charts, but specific data values are not clearly summarized in the text [5].

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the US-China trade war has transitioned from tariff disputes to a more systemic and long-term confrontation, impacting various industries, particularly the medical device sector [2][6]. Group 1: Policy Signals - The US government has initiated a "medical device import safety investigation," which is expected to create new systemic risks for the medical device industry [4][8]. - The focus has shifted from tariffs to national security and supply chain stability, with medical devices now being viewed as tools in economic policy and diplomatic negotiations [9][16]. - The introduction of non-tariff barriers is increasing regulatory pressure on manufacturers, affecting product pricing and procurement processes [9][14]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The US medical health sector, including medical devices, has underperformed the broader market, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 5% as of September 2025 [10]. - The industry's structural anxieties are reflected in stock volatility, driven by long investment cycles and high R&D costs, leading to short-term capital outflows [10][13]. - The expectation of policy-driven valuation fluctuations is becoming a new norm, where companies' competitiveness will depend on their ability to navigate global policy frameworks [10][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain Risks - The medical device industry's core challenge is not just manufacturing capability but the stability of manufacturing processes [11]. - A decline in the US manufacturing PMI to 49.1 in September 2025 indicates a contraction, which will impact upstream suppliers and increase hidden costs for medical device manufacturers [11][12]. - The shift from low-cost manufacturing to a model prioritizing stability and control is reshaping the global supply chain dynamics [11][12]. Group 4: Structural Reassessment - The high regulatory nature of the medical device industry has led to a reassessment of its stability and defensive characteristics [12]. - The trend of "de-risking" is replacing "decoupling," indicating a move towards diversified supply chains to mitigate single risk exposure [12][17]. - The global production model is transitioning from cost optimization to risk minimization, marking a significant structural change driven by the trade war [12][17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for further US import restrictions on medical devices could disrupt extensive US-China material and OEM collaborations [15]. - The medical device industry is becoming a strategic focal point in the economic and security landscape, with implications for both domestic and international market dynamics [16][17]. - The long-term competition will increasingly hinge on technology and standards, with countries and companies that master certification systems and supply stability redefining competitive boundaries [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the conflicting signals from the Trump administration regarding trade tariffs on China, indicating a potential strategy of using threats to gain leverage in negotiations [1][2][6] - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China was quickly followed by a clarification from U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, suggesting a lack of readiness for a full-blown trade war, which reflects an internal shift in the White House's stance [1][2] - The U.S. has been employing a mix of pressure tactics, including sanctions and tariffs on various sectors, to create a tense atmosphere while still signaling a willingness to negotiate [2][4] Group 2 - In response to the U.S. tariffs, China implemented a series of targeted countermeasures, including export controls on rare earths and investigations into U.S. chip companies, indicating a well-prepared strategy to counter U.S. actions [4][6] - The timing of China's countermeasures suggests that they anticipated Trump's actions and were ready to respond effectively, highlighting the strength and precision of their strategy [4][6] - The future of U.S.-China relations hinges on finding cooperative spaces amidst competition, with a call for more balanced negotiations rather than a continuation of a hegemonic approach [7][9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（10.9-10.10） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 2 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 785 | 790 | 5 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 820 | 824 | 4 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -10.71 | -28.76 | -18.05 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities, influenced by factors such as trade frictions, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Trade frictions between the US and China, especially Trump's tariff statements, have a significant impact on market risk preferences, asset prices, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Geopolitical events like the situation in the Middle East also affect relevant markets. Each sector has its own unique supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and strict export controls on software, which makes the gold price rise and increases market uncertainty. The short - term gold price is expected to be strong, but there are also factors such as profit - taking and liquidity shocks [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's softened stance on tariffs reduces the risk of the US - China trade war, and the market risk preference rebounds. The short - term US dollar index is expected to fluctuate [14][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The intensification of tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations lead to a decline in market risk preference. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of subsequent negotiations. If the two sides' attitudes ease, it may be a good buying opportunity [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions puts pressure on the short - term risk preference of A - shares. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait for the progress of Sino - US relations [20][21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 4090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the new regulations on fund fees are not considered, the treasury bond futures are expected to gradually strengthen. After the implementation of the new regulations, there may be opportunities to buy at low prices [23][24][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Coastal power groups release procurement demand for imported steam coal in November, but the cost of traders is high. The short - term price rebound cannot change the seasonal weakness of coal prices from October to November [26][27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - BHP accepts RMB settlement for iron ore trade. Although there is short - term support, the pressure on the demand side should be noted due to the weakening terminal demand [28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased. Due to the new tariff statement by Trump, the oil market is expected to open lower this week. After the market stabilizes, long positions can be considered [29][30]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Domestic sugar production and sales data show that the destocking of old sugar slows down. The short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Affected by weather and Sino - US trade frictions, the picking progress of Xinjiang cotton slows down, and the upper space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition of new cotton and Sino - US relations [39][40]. 3.2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of steel products increases during the holiday, and the actual pressure on finished products exists. The steel price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the near future. It is recommended to operate lightly and short on rebounds [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The proportion of drought - affected areas in US soybean production areas increases, and the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans is good. The Sino - US trade war escalates, and the futures price is expected to show a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US relations and the situation of Brazilian new crops [45][46][48]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of new - season corn is weak. The corn market will enter the stage of production - area pricing. It is recommended to hold short positions and not enter long positions prematurely [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of corn starch enterprises increases. The spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink in the long - term, and the futures price difference may fluctuate at a low level [52]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - Jujube is in the transition period between old and new production seasons. The market will focus on the speculation of the opening price, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price game and acquisition progress in the production area [55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The resources of some copper mines increase. The short - term copper price is under pressure, but the medium - term expectation is good. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [56][58][59]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ford delays purchasing lithium metal. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is supported, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the reverse spread [60][61]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The discount of LME lead increases, and the domestic social inventory of lead decreases. The short - term price of Shanghai lead may fluctuate upward. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to delivery risks [62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreases, and the 0 - 3 spread strengthens. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads for arbitrage [64][65]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology obtains capital injection. The spot price of polysilicon may be stable. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and pay attention to the reverse spread [66][70]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon project in Angola is put into operation. The fundamental contradiction of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is recommended to go long on dips with caution [71][72]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia adjusts the RKAB approval system. The global nickel inventory increases, but the nickel price has support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long at low prices at the beginning of the week [73][75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price rises slightly. The investment fund's long position increases. The carbon price is expected to fluctuate strongly [77][79]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreases. The short - term oil price may be greatly affected by macro factors [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price falls. The short - term PX price is expected to adjust weakly [82][84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rises locally. It is necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing [85][87]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price moves down. The short - term PTA price is expected to adjust weakly [88][90]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to fluctuate weakly [91][92]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder price is sorted out narrowly. It is necessary to pay attention to macro changes [93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory reduces production. The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and the processing fee is under pressure [95]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price is stable. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply disturbances [96][98]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [99][100]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China will charge additional fees for US ships. The container freight rate index fluctuates. It is recommended to trade with a volatile mindset and pay attention to long and short opportunities [101][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - After the holiday, polyolefins experienced significant inventory accumulation, leading to price pressure and a weak trend. The decline in crude oil prices weakened the cost support for polyethylene, and the commissioning of new plants increased supply pressure, driving the downward trend of polyolefins. For PE, the supply is expected to increase significantly, while the downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is also weakening. For PP, it is affected by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, with a supply increase expected and weak demand, and the cost support is also weak [3]. - The recommended strategies are to cautiously short - hedge L, expect PP to fluctuate weakly; conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05; and short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 7037 yuan/ton (-40), and that of the PP main contract was 6722 yuan/ton (-23). The LL spot price in North China was 7000 yuan/ton (+0), in East China was 7100 yuan/ton (-10), and the PP spot price in East China was 6670 yuan/ton (-10). The LL basis in North China was -37 yuan/ton (+40), in East China was 73 yuan/ton (+10), and the PP basis in East China was -42 yuan/ton (-47) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate was 83.9% (+1.9%), and the PP operating rate was 77.7% (+1.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit was 542.8 yuan/ton (+157.6), the PP oil - based production profit was -127.2 yuan/ton (+157.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit was -99.0 yuan/ton (-270.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit was 10.8 yuan/ton (+52.2), the PP import profit was -547.8 yuan/ton (-73.5), and the PP export profit was 17.5 US dollars/ton (+9.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 35.6% (+2.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.9% (+0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.3% (+0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.7% (+0.5%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers accumulated significantly. The decline in crude oil weakened the cost support, and the commissioning of new plants increased supply pressure. The supply is expected to increase with the commissioning of a 500,000 - ton LDPE plant and the restart of previously shut - down plants, along with concentrated arrivals of imported resources. The downstream demand in October was less than expected, and the cost support was weakened due to the OPEC+ production increase [3]. - **PP**: After the holiday, the decline of PP was obvious, affected by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. The supply is expected to increase as multiple plants restarted, and the PDH plant profit recovered. The demand was less than expected during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the cost support was weak [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L; expect PP to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Inter - period**: Conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4]. - **Inter - commodity**: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

农产品周报 | 2025-10-12 关税战再次升级，板块跟随宏观波动 国内方面， 受9月下旬及国庆假期期间降温降雨影响，棉花采摘较预期有所推迟，采摘进度已近1/4，但前期籽棉 水分偏高，轧花厂严控超水籽棉。棉农基本顺价交售，随着近期籽棉水分降低，机采棉收购价涨至6.1-6.2元/公斤 左右。 市场分析 宏观方面，中美贸易战在2025年10月再度升级，双方采取强硬措施互相施压：美国威胁自11月1日起对中国商品加 征100%额外关税，中国则实施稀土出口管制、对美船舶征收特别港务费等措施。国际方面，美国联邦政府已停摆 超一周，受此影响本周美棉生长周报、出口装运以及USDA月报等数据均暂停发布。由于此前USDA对于中国等增 产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶 段性供应压力增加，而美棉出口签约表现不佳，需求端压力仍存。中长期需关注美棉减产预期的落地情况以及美 棉出口目标的实现情况。国内方面，棉花去库速度持续偏快，商业库存降至同期低位。不过节前籽棉已经陆续开 秤，轧花厂收购心态较为谨慎，前期抢收预期落空，籽棉收购价在6.0-6.2元/公斤左右，整体套保压力 ...