韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）收涨0.1%，报5224.36点。Kospi指数本周上涨4.7%，1月份累计上涨 24.0%，创1998年12月以来最大单月涨幅。 韩国股市综合股价指数周五上涨，全球人工智能（AI）热潮推动的涨势未见减弱迹象，尽管美国总统 特朗普再度发出关税威胁。据韩联社报道，在特朗普本周早些时候通过社交媒体发文称将再次提高对韩 关税后，美韩两国在首日面对面会谈中未达成任何结论。美国财政部在半年度汇率报告评估中指出，韩 元近期贬值与韩国强劲的经济基本面不符。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit recently decreased to a 16-year low, but this improvement is misleading as the trade gap remains near historically high levels [1] Group 1 - The trade deficit fell a few months ago, reaching a low not seen in 16 years [1] - Despite the recent decrease, the U.S. continues to experience a trade gap that is close to historically high levels [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit increased in November, indicating a rebound in international trade flows amid ongoing economic adjustments to tariffs and financial volatility from the Trump administration [1] Trade Deficit Analysis - The Commerce Department reported a notable increase in the trade deficit for November, reflecting the complexities in trade dynamics influenced by recent policy changes [1]

同时，报告指出投资分布不均的问题进一步加剧。这种分化不仅体现在地域层面，行业差异也越发明显——半导体与数据中心 成为外资流入的热门领域，而传统制造业的投资则持续缩减。更值得警惕的是，地缘政治冲突导致全球供应链重构加速，部分 国家推行的政策正在重塑跨国企业在海外市场的投资决策逻辑。 分布失衡 去年流入发展中经济体的FDI总额下滑2%。 联合国贸发会议（UNCTAD）最新发布的《全球投资趋势监测报告》（下称"报告"）显示，2025年全球外国直接投资（FDI）增 长14%，达到1.6万亿美元，结束连续两年低迷状态。 在全球投资流动复苏之际，有超1400亿美元的增幅源自全球金融中心的资金流动。若剔除来自英国、卢森堡、瑞士、爱尔兰等 金融中转中心的资金，去年实际外国直接投资增幅仅约5%，这表明基础投资的复苏态势依旧疲软。 报告分析称，FDI在全球的流动热潮主要得益于跨国企业通过金融中心进行内部资金调拨、税务结构安排、并购资金过账等，并 不对应实体投资。上述资金在流动的同时，项目并没有落地，增长更多的是资金路径的变化，不是新增工厂、基础设施或项目 投资。 截至去年第三季度的数据显示，构成FDI的主要投资类型——绿地投资（ ...

华尔街见闻 2026-01-29 09:22发布于广东华尔街见闻官方账号 鲍威尔记者会要点： 1、 货币政策： 鲍威尔表示，加息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设。 2、 通胀： 通胀风险已经在一定程度上消退。至2025年12月，已经有12个月的核心PCE通胀率达到3%。通胀偏 高，在一定程度上体现出关税推高商品价格的影响。通胀预期体现出对2%目标有信心，长期通胀预期与目标保 持一致。还无法预先宣布抗击通胀取得胜利。 3、就业： 就业风险已经在一定程度上消退。失业率在一定程度上出现企稳迹象。在经历了逐步走软之后，劳动 力市场可能趋于稳定。招聘、职位空缺、薪资增速几乎都没有变化。 4、关税： 关税的大部分影响已经传导至经济，预计关税通胀将在2026年年中消退。如果我们看到关税影响的峰 值，表明我们可以放宽政策。 5、美元走软： 不予置评。并没有看到数据表明投资者对冲美元风险。不要过度解读贵金属释放的宏观信息。 6、 财政 ：美国债务路径毫无疑问是不可持续的。 7、 AI与科技： 短期内可能会看到人工智能（AI）消除就业岗位/AI导致岗位被淘汰。 8、 鲍威尔的去留与美联储独立性： 对于5月份主席任期届满之后的去留 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates after three consecutive rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy moving forward [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, following three prior rate cuts [1] - The next potential rate cut will depend on economic conditions, particularly regarding tariffs and their impact on prices [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the impact of tariffs on goods prices is expected to peak and then decline, which could allow for a relaxation of monetary policy [1] - The anticipated economic conditions suggest that if tariffs do not increase significantly, there may be room for policy easing later this year [1]

Monetary Policy - Interest rate hikes are not a fundamental assumption for the next steps [2][11] - The current policy stance is at the high end of the neutral rate range, and it is difficult to indicate that the policy is significantly restrictive [11][28] Inflation - Inflation risks have somewhat dissipated, with core PCE inflation expected to reach 3% by December 2025 [2] - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.9% over the past 12 months, while the core PCE index rose by 4.3% [10] - The high inflation levels are largely attributed to tariff impacts, which are expected to peak and then decline by mid-2026 [3][31] Employment - Employment risks are stabilizing, with the unemployment rate showing signs of stabilization at around 4.4% [10][11] - Job growth has been low, averaging only about 22,000 new jobs per month recently, reflecting a slowdown in labor supply growth [10][19] Tariffs - The majority of the tariff impacts have been transmitted to the economy, with expectations that tariff-induced inflation will dissipate by mid-2026 [3][31] - If the peak impact of tariffs is observed, it may signal a potential easing of monetary policy [3][31] AI and Technology - Short-term impacts of AI may lead to job losses, but the long-term effects remain uncertain [14][61] - The deployment of AI is being closely monitored for its potential effects on the labor market and overall economy [62] Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as crucial for effective monetary policy, and there is a strong commitment to maintaining this independence [52][51] - The legal case involving Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is considered potentially one of the most significant in the Fed's history [10][52] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is expected to have a solid foundation entering 2026, with consumer spending showing resilience and business investment continuing to grow [8][57] - Recent government shutdowns may have temporarily affected economic activity, but these impacts are expected to reverse as the government resumes operations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the impact of higher tariffs on consumer prices is nearing completion, with expectations that the influence on goods prices will peak and then decline, provided no significant new tariff increases are initiated [1] Group 1 - Powell emphasized that tariffs are viewed as a one-time price increase rather than a channel for sustained inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) and India have reached a significant free trade agreement (FTA) aimed at countering the impact of U.S. tariffs, creating a trade zone covering 20 billion people and accounting for 25% of global GDP and one-third of global trade [1][2]. Trade Agreement Details - The FTA will eliminate or reduce tariffs on over 90% of EU goods exported to India, significantly improving market access for EU products [1][6]. - Key tariff reductions include a decrease in India's automotive tariffs from 110% to 10%, and reductions in machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals tariffs [1][6]. - The agreement is expected to save EU exporters up to €4 billion annually in tariffs and double EU exports to India [6][10]. Historical Context - The negotiations for the FTA have spanned approximately 20 years, with significant interruptions due to a lack of political urgency from both sides [2][4]. - Recent geopolitical pressures, particularly from U.S. tariffs, have accelerated the urgency for both parties to finalize the agreement [4][5]. Economic Implications - India is currently the EU's ninth-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade projected to reach $136 billion in the 2024-2025 fiscal year, showing a trade surplus for India of approximately $16 billion [2][6]. - The FTA is seen as a strategic move for both the EU and India to diversify their trade relationships and reduce dependency on the U.S. market [7][12]. Challenges Ahead - Despite the agreement, there are concerns regarding the balance of benefits, with some analysts suggesting it may favor the EU more than India [10][11]. - Potential barriers include India's complex regulatory environment and the need for compliance with EU standards, which may hinder the effectiveness of the FTA [11][12].

记者丨 赖镇桃 编辑丨李莹亮 （资料图） 面对美国掀起的关税风暴，欧盟和印度决定"抱团取暖"。 据央视新闻，当地时间1月27日， 印欧领导人在新德里举行会晤。印度总理莫迪宣布，印度和 欧盟达成自由贸易协定，并表示该协议覆盖全球GDP的25%和全球贸易额的三分之一。 双方都对自贸协定给予了极高的定调。欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇称，这项协 定将创建一个覆盖20亿人口的自由贸易区，是"有史以来最大的贸易协定"。印度和欧盟都形 容，这份协定是"所有协定之母"。 欧盟委员会称，欧盟超过90%的商品出口关税将被取消或降低，印度给予欧盟的关税减免将大 幅改善欧盟出口产品的市场准入。例如，高达110%的汽车关税将逐步降至10%，44%的机械 关税、22%的化学品关税和11%的药品关税也将基本取消。 很长时间以来，印度有强烈的保护主义倾向，为保护本土产业将不少国际品牌拒之门外，尤其 是汽车产业，基本是塔塔汽车、马恒达这些本土车企的天下。连马斯克一直和印度拉扯也打不 下来的汽车关税，如今印度却难得对欧盟松口，这种转变为何发生？ 这份"史上最大贸易协 定"，可在多大程度抵御美国关税的逆风？ 关税阴影下的自贸协定 "我是 ...