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中金:“十五五”景气延续 AIDC助推全球电力超级周期
智通财经网· 2025-12-16 01:24
智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,电网和工控行业2025年整体表现稳健向上,提示投资者重点关注 结构性机遇。电网方面,国内电网投资景气延续,特高压项目自下半年进入核准招标加速期,该行认为 电网是新能源投资的后周期,仍有较大的投资缺口有待补齐,看好电网投资景气延续。工控方面,周期 整体不变,目前仍处于内生修复阶段,展望明年该行认为需求有望持续稳增。此外,该行重点提示关注 AIDC、出海两大高弹性投资方向。 中金主要观点如下: 电网:"十五五"景气度延续 该行认为,在负荷增长、煤电/核电退役、风光占比提升的大背景下,全球多地区缺电风险抬升,全球 迎来电力投资大周期。今年以来中国变压器出口高增,该行持续看好中国电力设备企业海外布局加码, 盈利弹性释放;燃气轮机、SOFC产业链迎来出海突破机遇。 风险 电网投资不及预期;宏观经济波动;新兴行业发展节奏不及预期;国际贸易政策变化和汇率波动风险。 该行预计"十五五"期间全国电网工程投资额年均增速有望达5%以上,看好1)特高压建设有望在风光大 基地及水电外送需求下保持高强度,2)主网投资维持高位;3)配网投资长期看好智能化升级改造方向。 工控:整体需求稳健,仍然看好结构性 ...
中金公司:中金公司:关注电网和工控行业结构性机遇
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 00:19
中金公司指出,电网和工控行业2025年整体表现稳健向上,提示投资者重点关注结构性机遇。电网方 面,国内电网投资景气延续,特高压项目自下半年进入核准招标加速期,我们认为电网是新能源投资的 后周期,仍有较大的投资缺口有待补齐,看好电网投资景气延续。工控方面,周期整体不变,目前仍处 于内生修复阶段,展望明年我们认为需求有望持续稳增。此外,我们重点提示关注AIDC、出海两大高 弹性投资方向。 (本文来自第一财经) ...
中金公司:关注AIDC、出海两大高弹性投资方向
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-16 00:06
每经AI快讯,中金公司指出,电网和工控行业2025年整体表现稳健向上,提示投资者重点关注结构性 机遇。电网方面,国内电网投资景气延续,特高压项目自下半年进入核准招标加速期,我们认为电网是 新能源投资的后周期,仍有较大的投资缺口有待补齐,看好电网投资景气延续。工控方面,周期整体不 变,目前仍处于内生修复阶段,展望明年我们认为需求有望持续稳增。此外,我们重点提示关注 AIDC、出海两大高弹性投资方向。 ...
中金公司:关注电网和工控行业结构性机遇
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 23:57
中金公司指出,电网和工控行业2025年整体表现稳健向上,提示投资者重点关注结构性机遇。电网方 面,国内电网投资景气延续,特高压项目自下半年进入核准招标加速期,我们认为电网是新能源投资的 后周期,仍有较大的投资缺口有待补齐,看好电网投资景气延续。工控方面,周期整体不变,目前仍处 于内生修复阶段,展望明年我们认为需求有望持续稳增。此外,我们重点提示关注AIDC、出海两大高 弹性投资方向。 (文章来源:第一财经) ...
史上首个国家顺差突破万亿美元,中国登顶后正重塑全球工业版图阶梯
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 18:19
Core Insights - China's trade surplus has historically surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, reaching $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of the year [1][5] - The trade surplus is primarily driven by Chinese companies aggressively expanding into overseas markets across various industries [6][7] - The current domestic consumption market is weak, prompting a reliance on export markets to sustain production [9][11] Group 1: Trade Surplus Growth - In 2023, China maintained a trade surplus of $608 billion, leading globally, with the figure approaching $992.2 billion as of 2024 [4] - The significant growth in trade surplus is attributed to the expansion of Chinese enterprises into international markets, which has become a core strategy across all sectors [6][8] - The ongoing expansion of production capacity and rising inventory levels are linked to insufficient domestic demand [10][11] Group 2: Industrial Strategy - China's industrial development strategy differs from traditional models, opting for simultaneous advancement across all industrial levels rather than a step-by-step approach [12][13] - The country has established a comprehensive industrial ecosystem, dominating various sectors from basic manufacturing to advanced technology [13][15] - Other countries face challenges entering these industries due to China's established scale, efficiency, and innovation [14][16] Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - The traditional "flying geese" model of industrial transfer is outdated, as China occupies multiple key positions in the global market [20][21] - Emerging economies struggle to replicate China's industrial success due to the complexity and scale of its manufacturing capabilities [22][45] - China's ability to adapt its production and supply chains in response to international trade barriers has been demonstrated, particularly in the face of U.S. tariffs [59][60] Group 4: Internal Challenges - The increasing trade surplus highlights a growing internal challenge regarding the sustainability of relying on foreign markets for economic stability [61][63] - The need to enhance domestic consumption is critical, as the current economic model heavily depends on exports [62][66] - Future economic strategies must balance domestic development with international trade dynamics, acknowledging the complexities of global economic relations [64][68]
非药行业2026年度投资策略:复苏中前行,聚焦出海、创新
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 14:59
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the healthcare sector [14] Core Insights - The non-pharmaceutical sector is facing performance pressure in 2025 due to price reductions from centralized procurement, medical insurance cost control, and the closure of retail pharmacies. However, companies are leveraging overseas expansion and innovation to achieve growth [4][9] - For 2026, the domestic fundamentals are expected to improve, with companies seeking new growth points primarily through overseas expansion and innovation, particularly in insulin and medical devices [9] - The report highlights that the insulin market is stabilizing post-centralized procurement, with significant overseas opportunities for leading companies like Mindray Medical and Ganli Pharmaceutical [10][24] - The focus on innovation in traditional Chinese medicine and medical devices is expected to create alpha opportunities for individual stocks [9][11] Summary by Sections Non-Pharmaceutical Sector - The non-pharmaceutical sector is under pressure but has opportunities through overseas expansion and innovation. Insulin and medical devices are key areas for long-term growth [4][9] - Companies like Mindray Medical and Ganli Pharmaceutical are beginning to realize overseas revenue, indicating a significant long-term market potential [9] Biopharmaceuticals - The report prioritizes insulin, with ongoing attention to blood products and vaccines. The insulin market is stabilizing, and companies are focusing on innovation and business development [10][24] - The report notes that the insulin market in developed countries is valued at $13.2 billion, with significant growth potential in emerging markets [24] Traditional Chinese Medicine - The focus is on innovation and the basic drug catalog, which is crucial for accelerating drug sales and enhancing market presence [11][12] - The report anticipates a recovery in performance due to early flu outbreaks and emphasizes the importance of retail pharmacy sales [11] Medical Devices - The report indicates that the medical device sector is at a turning point, with overseas revenue for leading companies expected to exceed 50% in 2025 [12] - The report suggests focusing on low-value consumables and in vitro diagnostics as key growth areas [12] Vaccines - The vaccine sector is currently facing challenges, with price reductions and low demand impacting sales. However, there are ongoing developments in innovative vaccines that warrant attention [39][40] - The report highlights the importance of tracking clinical progress and market performance of major vaccine candidates [40]
瞭望 | 国产创新药井喷背后
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 09:30
Core Insights - The Chinese innovative drug industry has transitioned from "importing and imitating" to "innovative output" with a significant increase in the number of approved innovative drugs and a growing focus on international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The number of approved innovative drugs in China has increased significantly, with 48 new drugs expected to be approved in 2024, more than five times the number in 2018, and a total of 63 approved as of October this year [1]. - The number of new drugs under research in China ranks second globally, indicating a robust pipeline for future innovations [1]. - The "outbound" model for Chinese innovative drugs is evolving from primarily external licensing to a more diversified approach that includes "borrowing, buying, and building" [2][7]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The rapid growth in innovative drugs is attributed to long-term commitment to research and development, competitive pressures, and supportive policies that have accelerated the drug approval process [3][4]. - The approval process for new drugs has significantly shortened, with the time from clinical application to market approval reduced from several years to approximately 60 working days under current policies [4]. - The integration of innovative drugs into insurance coverage has also accelerated, with the time from approval to inclusion in the insurance catalog reduced from around five years to about one year [4]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The expiration of patents for major products from leading multinational pharmaceutical companies by 2030 presents an opportunity for Chinese innovative drugs, particularly in oncology and immunotherapy [5]. - The overseas market for innovative drugs offers significantly higher returns, with some products priced up to ten times higher than in the domestic market [5][8]. - The establishment of new companies overseas for the development and commercialization of innovative drugs is becoming a common strategy among Chinese firms, allowing them to share in future capital gains [8]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The use of artificial intelligence in drug discovery is enhancing the efficiency of research, allowing companies to screen vast databases of compounds in a fraction of the time previously required [5][6]. - The expectation for the innovation cycle in drug development is changing, with the traditional "three tens" law (one billion dollars, ten years, and a ten percent success rate) being challenged by new technologies and methodologies [6]. Group 5: Supportive Policies and Ecosystem - Local governments are increasingly focusing on building supportive ecosystems for the biopharmaceutical industry, with initiatives aimed at funding, talent cultivation, and technological advancement [9]. - The establishment of comprehensive support policies is crucial for fostering innovation and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the industry [11].
大制造中观策略行业周报:周期反转、成长崛起、军工反转、海外崛起-20251215
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-12-15 07:27
Group 1: Core Insights - The report aims to summarize important deep reports, significant commentary, and marginal changes within the large manufacturing sector [1] - Key companies highlighted include Yokogawa Precision, Zhejiang Rongtai, Shanghai Yanpu, and Sany Heavy Industry among others [2][3] Group 2: Industry Performance - As of December 12, 2025, the best-performing indices in the last week were: Communication (+6.27%), National Defense and Military Industry (+2.8%), and Electronics (+2.63%) [4][19] - Within the large manufacturing sector, the top three indices were: Industrial Gases (+4.62%), ChiNext Index (+2.74%), and Semiconductor Index (+2.68%) [4][22] Group 3: Company Analysis - Yindu Co., Ltd. - Yindu Co., Ltd. is a leading player in commercial kitchen equipment, with a revenue CAGR of 10.6% from 2017 to 2024, growing from 1.36 billion to 2.75 billion [7] - The global commercial kitchen equipment market is projected to grow from $37.4 billion in 2024 to $54.35 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 4.8% [8] - The company has a strong overseas presence, with 93% of its revenue coming from international markets in the first half of 2025 [8] Group 4: Company Analysis - Shuanghuan Transmission - Shuanghuan Transmission has achieved a remarkable CAGR of 112% in net profit from 2020 to 2024, driven by its three main business segments: gears, smart actuators, and reducers [9] - The gear business is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% from 2024 to 2027, benefiting from the trend of electric vehicles [9] - The company is expanding its global footprint with production facilities in Hungary and Vietnam, which are expected to enhance its growth prospects [9] Group 5: Company Analysis - Western Superconducting Technologies - Western Superconducting Technologies is focusing on high-performance superconducting materials and has established a joint venture for nuclear fusion supply [10] - The company is the only global producer of NbTi superconducting wire and has a production capacity of 2,000 kilometers per year [10] - The high-end titanium alloy business is a stable revenue source, contributing 87% of revenue in the first half of 2025, with applications in aerospace and deep-sea technology [12]
增量政策或将出台,中证A500ETF(159338)近20日净流入超22亿元,资金抢筹A股核心资产
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-15 07:05
消息面上,12月13日,2025—2026中国经济年会在中国国际经济交流中心举办,中央财办分管日常 工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀在会上表示,2025年我国主要经济指标表现好于预期,经济总量预 计达到140万亿元左右。2026年将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策,要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集 成效应,推动经济稳中向好。 中国银河证券表示,12月中央经济工作会议召开,为明年经济工作指明了初步方向,A股投资重点 关注以下领域:(1) 科技创新主题 :作为"十五五"开局之年,顺应国家战略、具备真实技术壁垒的科 技企业将是A股投资的重要主线。(2) "反内卷"主题 :深入整治"内卷式"竞争,政策效果将持续体 现,以促进行业业绩改善,提升相关板块中长期投资价值。(3) 大消费主题 :大消费板块目前估值处 于历史中低水平,政策利好有望促进业绩与估值双击。(4) 金融板块 :金融机构将加力支持扩大内 需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。(5) 地产链 :随着地产政策加快落地,止跌企稳预期有望得 到强化,给投资者信心提供支撑。(6) 出海主题 :对外开放政策支持下,出海趋势将带动企业盈利空 间进一步打开。 把握A股机遇,或可 ...
传媒互联网数据月报:港美股披露3Q业绩,年末娱乐景气度提升-20251214
CICC· 2025-12-14 08:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry, with specific stock recommendations across various segments [5][8]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a slight rebound in November, with the advertising segment gaining traction due to AI applications, while other segments showed minor fluctuations. The demand for entertainment is expected to rise towards the end of the year, suggesting potential opportunities in niche segments [3][4]. - Key trends for 2026 include a supportive policy environment fostering resilient growth, with a focus on AI applications, overseas expansion of Chinese content, and the revaluation of IP value driven by upgraded demand [3][4]. - The report highlights strong Q3 performance in Hong Kong and US stocks, particularly in gaming and social media sectors, with notable revenue growth from Tencent and Kuaishou [3][4][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The media index rose by 1.69% in November, contrasting with a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.67%. Sub-sectors showed varied performance, with digital media up by 1.76% and advertising marketing up by 9.68% [2][11]. - The gaming sector saw a record high in the issuance of domestic game licenses in November, with 178 games approved, indicating a robust supply side [20]. Company Performance - Tencent Music reported a revenue of 8,463 million, exceeding expectations, while iQIYI's performance was in line with forecasts at 6,682 million [18]. - Kuaishou's revenue reached 35,554 million, meeting expectations, driven by advancements in AI technology [18]. Valuation and Recommendations - The report maintains target prices and ratings for covered companies, recommending stocks such as Century Huatong, Mango Excellent Media, and Kuaishou for A-shares, and Tencent Music and iQIYI for Hong Kong and US stocks [5][8]. - Specific stock recommendations include Century Huatong (target price 26.50), Kuaishou (target price 89.00), and iQIYI (target price 2.50), all rated as "Outperform" [5][8].