市场终于跌了…不过市场跌不多，现在的买盘还是很强！板块之间的变化会比大盘的变化更多一些，机会也一样更多些。 我们对于本次股市出现短暂下跌，是乐观且期待的，因为这样，短暂的机会才会出现。但是我们还在等待的趋势性机会，可能还是不会有。 在今天这次的展望里，我们会给出对于目前市场上的几个主流资产的观点看法。 大家好，我是老丁 看一下本周整体的大盘情况，本周上证指数下跌0.51%，创业板指下跌1.66%，恒生科技指数下跌2.03%，恒生指数下跌1.52%，纳斯达克上涨0.72%（截止 周五盘前）。 现在市场上最值得关注的就是，茅台为首的白酒下跌，寒武纪为首的芯片阴跌，泡泡玛特为首的新消费回调，还有地缘政治带来的原油上涨。（因为所属 不同市场，我们会在下文详细表述这些） 这也是在下周如果要看机会需要着重关注的地方。其实这种机会，都是点状的，目前市场上没有发现趋势性机会….由此，我们也只能在暂时捉不到大鱼 的时候，也看看小鱼，哪怕不参与，验证一下观点也好。 刚过去的这一周，美联储公布了利率决议，表示不降息。现在利率还是维持在高位…根据历史经验，当美联储过去有过大的货币政策，居民和企业都大幅 借贷，然后后续货币政策从宽松又 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are in a weak adjustment due to tight raw materials and weak demand. For nickel, it is expected to be adjusted at a low level, and for stainless steel, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see for nickel. For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a small position [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Nickel** - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 1.37% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 118,280 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroscopically, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Fundamentally, the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines recovered, but the port inventory of domestic nickel ore decreased. The high raw material price and the downward trend of nickel price led some non - integrated smelters to cut production. The demand of new energy vehicles increased, but the proportion was small. Recently, supply and demand were both weak, domestic inventory decreased, and overseas inventory remained stable. Technically, the short - selling power weakened, and it was expected to be adjusted at a low level [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Stainless Steel** - This week, stainless steel fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 0.36% and an amplitude of 1.20%. The closing price of the main contract was 12,505 yuan/ton [7]. - The implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippines planned to implement a nickel ore export ban. The cost support of raw materials weakened. Steel mills maintained normal production, but the supply pressure still existed. Entering the traditional off - season, the downstream was cautious. The domestic inventory removal was not good. Technically, it was expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a small position [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement** - This week, the futures prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel declined. As of June 20, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the whole country was 925 yuan/nickel, a decrease of 15 yuan/nickel from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 118,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,640 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - **Basis Situation** - This week, the basis of Shanghai nickel was low, and the basis of stainless steel was high. As of June 20, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,625 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,345 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,450 yuan/ton, and the basis was 945 yuan/ton [17]. - **Price Ratio** - This week, the ratio of nickel to stainless steel fluctuated, and the ratio of tin to nickel increased. As of June 20, the price ratio of nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.46, a decrease of 0.1 from last week; the price ratio of tin to nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.2 yuan/ton, the same as last week [22]. - **Net Buying Volume of the Top 20** - This week, the net buying volume of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel increased, and that in stainless steel also increased. As of June 20, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 16,361 lots, a decrease of 7,310 lots from June 16, 2025. The net position of the top 20 in stainless steel was 653 lots, a decrease of 5,027 lots from June 16, 2025 [31]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Production Profit** - The port inventory of nickel ore increased, and the production profit of electrowinning nickel shrank. As of June 20, the national nickel ore inventory in major ports was 739,240 tons, an increase of 2.41% from last week. The production profit of electrowinning nickel was - 1,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,025 yuan/ton from last week [34][35]. - **Production and Import and Export of Electrolytic Nickel** - The production of domestic electrolytic nickel increased, and the import and export volume increased significantly. In April 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [39]. - **Inventory in Exchanges** - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the LME nickel inventory remained stable. As of June 20, the LME nickel inventory was 21,669 tons, a decrease of 1,473 tons from last week. The inventory of Shanghai nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,304 tons, a decrease of 1,651 tons from last week [41][45]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export** - The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased steadily, and the export volume rebounded. In May 2025, the total production of stainless steel crude steel was 3.4629 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%. Among them, the production of 400 - series was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.44%; the production of 300 - series was 1.7847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17%; the production of 200 - series was 976,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.58%. In May 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [49]. - **Inventory in Key Regions** - The destocking of 300 - series stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi was not good. As of June 20, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 329,227 tons, an increase of 322 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 596,595 tons, an increase of 8,635 tons from last week [53]. - **Stainless Steel Production Profit** - As of June 20, the production profit of stainless steel was 102 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - **Related Industries' Demand** - The real estate industry recovered slowly, and the home appliance industry was at the end of the peak season. From January to May 2025, the new construction area of houses was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.8%; the completed area of houses was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; the real estate development investment was 362.3384 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. In May 2025, the air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.48%; the household refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.72%; the household washing machine production was 9.412 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%; the freezer production was 2.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [59]. - The automobile industry performed well, and the machinery industry improved steadily. In May 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 2.649 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7%; the sales volume was 2.686 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In May 2025, the excavator production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%; the production of large and medium - sized tractors was 24,616 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16.64%; the production of small tractors was 11,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [64].

2025 年 6 月 20 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 原油、燃料油、PTA 期货将偏强震 荡 黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃期货将震荡整理 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏弱震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3778 和 3794 点，支撑位 3751 和 3724 点；IH2509 阻力位 2623 和 2632 点，支撑位 2605 和 2590 点；IC2509 阻力位 5520 和 5572 点，支撑位 5455 和 5403 点；IM2509 阻力位 5816 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 国债期货周报 期债震荡走强，长短分化明显 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管： 1、6月18日，2025年陆家嘴论坛开幕式上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布八项重磅金融开放举措，包括 设立银行间市场交易报告库、同证监会研究推进人民币外汇期货交易等。2、6月18日，中国证监会发布公告称，经商中 国人民银行、国家外汇局，将从2025年10月9日起允许合格境外投资者参与场内ETF期权交易，交易目的限于套期保值。 3.金融监管总局会同上海市人民政府联合印发《关于支持上海国际金融中心建设行动方案》。 基本面：1、国内:1）5月经济数据偏弱，工增小幅回落，社零超预期回升，固投规模持续收敛，失业率环比改善；2） 出口前置的拉动作用持续弱化，5月出口同比增长4.8%，较前值回落3.3个百分点；3）5月金融数据小幅超预期，财政持 续发力，政府债有力支撑社融，但企业信贷需求走弱，经济内生动能仍待提振。 海外： ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The voting ratio was 6:3, with members including Dingra, Ramsden, and Taylor supporting a rate cut [1] - The outlook for interest rates suggests a gradual and cautious approach, with Governor Bailey indicating rates will "gradually decline" [1] Group 2 - The second quarter GDP is projected to grow approximately 0.25% quarter-on-quarter, an increase from the previous forecast of 0.1% [1] - The mid-term CPI path risks are seen as two-sided, with significant wage slowdown expected for the remainder of the year [1] - CPI is anticipated to peak at 3.7% in September, remaining below 3.5% for the rest of the year [1] Group 3 - Preliminary analysis indicates that the impact of tariffs on global GDP may be smaller than previously expected in May [1] - Recent global developments did not significantly influence the decision to maintain interest rates in June [1] Group 4 - The GBP/USD exchange rate experienced a short-term decline, with traders increasing bets on an 80% probability of a rate cut in August [1] - There are expectations for an additional 50 basis points cut by the central bank within the year [1]

智通财经APP获悉，英国央行以比预期更分裂的投票结果将利率维持在4.25%不变。政策制定者在日益 紧张的地缘政治背景下，权衡了英国疲软的就业市场和低迷的经济增长。这一决定使得8月可能降息25 个基点的预期升温。 自预算案发布以来，英国就业人数已减少逾25万 交易员加大了对进一步降息的押注，完全消化了2025年再降息两次、每次25个基点的预期。这一重新定 价导致英镑和英国国债收益率下滑，10年期国债收益率从之前的4.53%降至约4.52%。周四英镑兑美元 下跌0.1%，至1.341美元。 道明证券高级欧洲和英国利率策略师普贾·库姆拉在彭博电视上表示："8月降息似乎已成定局。"她预计 在下次会议前将看到薪资和通胀数据逐步下降，但鉴于英国央行坚持"渐进且谨慎"的做法，她警告称不 太可能像欧洲央行那样连续降息。 英国央行九人货币政策委员会中，六名成员投票支持维持利率不变，而外部委员斯瓦蒂·丁格拉、艾伦· 泰勒以及副行长戴夫·拉姆斯登则倾向于立即降息25个基点。 会议纪要显示，随着就业市场持续疲软，委员会"预计今年剩余时间薪资增长将显著放缓"。纪要释放鸽 派信号称，"劳动力市场出现了一些更明显的反通胀压力迹象"。委员会 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions to Geopolitical Tensions - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.99% following Iran's missile launches towards Israel, marking a significant market reaction to escalating tensions [1] - Since the conflict began on the 13th, Iran has launched over 400 ballistic missiles and more than 1000 drones at Israel, resulting in 24 Israeli deaths and over 500 injuries [2] - Analysts warn that if the U.S. does not continue to support Israel's defense systems, they may only last about 10 more days against Iranian attacks [2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Policies and Market Impact - The Trump administration is advancing a new round of tariffs, including a significant expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, which could impact various sectors including pharmaceuticals [4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with officials predicting worsening inflation in the coming months, indicating no immediate plans for rate cuts [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Shandong Gold reported a 36.81% increase in revenue to 25.935 billion yuan and a 46.62% increase in net profit to 1.026 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating strong profitability [10] - The company plans to produce no less than 50 tons of gold in 2025, having already achieved 24% of its annual target in the first quarter [10][11] - The company is progressing on its mining projects, including the San Shan Island gold mine, which has received a mining license for 4.95 million tons per year [11] Group 4: Industry Developments - Beijing's government has introduced measures to support the gaming and esports industry, including financial rewards for game development and innovation [8][9]

英国央行利率决议公布后，英国国债期货上涨约10个点。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England maintained interest rates as expected, but the voting showed a slightly dovish stance, leading to a short-term decline of the GBP/USD to 1.36 [1] - The 4H indicator in the monitoring tool indicates that the strongest resistance level is significantly above at 1.3499, with multiple strong resistance levels before reaching this point, suggesting a challenging rebound [1] - Overall, the market trend remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face considerable obstacles [1]

提醒：北京时间19:00，英国央行将公布利率决议。 ...