Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to Maersk's slight reduction in the price increase, the deterioration of the Middle - East situation, and the lack of significant progress in Sino - US talks, the shipping market has high uncertainty. The market is in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3]. - In the short - term, when the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions at high prices. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Market Data - **SCFIS and NCFI Indexes**: On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period, and for the US - West route was 2908.68 points, up 33.1%. On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period, and for the European route was 1299.58 points, down 0.64%, and for the US - West route was 1586.05 points, down 28.91% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI Indexes**: On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49%, and for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1342.46 points, up 8.0%, for the European route was 1578.60 points, up 6.0%, and for the US - West route was 1256.91 points, up 14.8% [2]. - **Futures Market**: On June 20, the main contract 2508 closed at 1890, down 6.99%, with a trading volume of 68,900 lots and an open interest of 46,000 lots, an increase of 3393 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply and Demand and Price Trends**: Although liner companies announced price increases for early July, Maersk slightly reduced the increase due to the lack of significant changes in market supply and demand. The deterioration of the Middle - East situation has increased market uncertainties, leading to a weak and volatile market [3]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, slightly higher than expected; the service PMI was 48.9, lower than expected. The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high, and the service PMI was also at a two - month high [2]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: When the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions at high prices. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000. For the 2510 contract, if trying long positions, set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rates are stronger than the long - term ones. It is necessary to pay attention to the court's ruling, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. 3.4 Other Information - **Contract Adjustments**: The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 is adjusted to 16%. The company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Iran condemned the US's "barbaric military aggression" against its nuclear facilities and launched a new round of missile attacks on Israel, using the "Khyber" missile for the first time [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The outcome of the Israel-Iran conflict depends on the damage to Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's level of retaliation. Market expectations are reflected in the rise of Middle - East stock markets on June 22 [8]. - PVC has short - term fluctuations and long - term downward pressure due to high production, high inventory, and uncertain export prospects [9][11][12]. - Stock index futures have a short - term consolidation but a medium - term bullish trend. There are opportunities to buy on dips [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Israel - Iran Conflict - After the US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran launched a "retaliatory attack". The US is ready for dialogue on June 23. The conflict's development will affect the market [8][25]. - On June 22, Middle - East stock markets opened higher, with the Israeli TA - 125 index rising 1% and the TA - 35 benchmark index rising 1.2% [8]. 3.2 PVC - PVC has a short - term shock, but the trend is under pressure. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term. The export demand can only relieve the pressure temporarily, and the overall drive is downward [9][11][12]. - In the future, there will be more capacity put into production, with an expected 1.1 million tons in June - July. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July, and the domestic demand related to real estate is weak [11]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures - The short - term trend is related to the Israel - Iran situation. The medium - term trend is positive due to policy support, low interest rates, and capital market system reforms. There are opportunities to buy on dips [13]. 3.4 Other Commodities 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical risks have increased. Silver: Continuing to rise [16][20]. 3.4.2 Base Metals - Copper: The strengthening of LME copper spot prices supports the price [16][26]. - Aluminum: Waiting for the inventory inflection point. Alumina: Narrow - range fluctuations. Aluminum alloy: Range - bound fluctuations [16][29]. - Zinc: Supply surplus may become apparent, and the price is under pressure [16][32]. - Lead: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating [16][35]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak expectations [16][38]. - Nickel: The future expectation of the nickel ore end is loose, restricting the upward elasticity of the smelting end. Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both marginally weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [16][43]. 3.4.3 Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate lithium: As the delivery month approaches, attention should be paid to the willingness to accept warehouse receipts [16][50]. - Industrial silicon: Limited upside space, suitable for short - selling on rallies. Polysilicon: Continue to short [16][52]. - Iron ore: Expectations are volatile, and prices are range - bound [16][55]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Wide - range fluctuations [16][57][58]. - Ferrosilicon: Fluctuates widely due to sector sentiment resonance. Silicomanganese: Fluctuates widely with firm ore quotes [16][61]. - Coke and coking coal: Fluctuate widely with an increase in hot metal production [16][65][66]. - Steam coal: Demand needs to be released, and prices fluctuate widely [16][70].

棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 中东冲突范围扩大 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨188收于4115林吉特/吨，涨幅 4.79%；棕榈油09合约涨396收于8536元/吨，涨幅4.86%； 豆油09合约涨370收于8156元/吨，涨幅4.75%；菜油09合 约涨416收于9726元/吨，涨幅4.47%；CBOT美豆油主连涨 3.85收 ...

2025年06月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治有所升级 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：等待库存拐点 | 6 | | 氧化铝：窄幅震荡 | 6 | | 铝合金：区间震荡 | 6 | | 锌：供应过剩或渐显，偏承压 | 8 | | 铅：供需双弱，震荡运行 | 9 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 10 | | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 12 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 23 日 黄金：地缘政治有所升级 白银：继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3359.90, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.47% to 10005.03 [2][3] - The overall market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6531.38 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.03 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.25 [3] Financial Insights - The report indicates that the overall A-share market is experiencing a downward trend, with the total market turnover reaching 1091.74 billion, a decrease of 189.15 billion from the previous trading day [7] - The TTM PE ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.64, which is in the 31.7% historical percentile, while the TTM PE for the ChiNext Index is significantly higher at 30.38, in the 10.15% historical percentile [7] Industry Dynamics - The pet food export value in May increased by 12.81% month-on-month, indicating a positive trend in the pet food sector [48] - The Chinese gaming market saw a recovery in May, with a total revenue of 28.051 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.86% [41] - The engineering machinery export maintained a robust growth rate, with a total export value of 50.24 billion in May, up 8.51% year-on-year [44] Company Highlights - Petty Co. reported a GMV of over 38 million during the 618 shopping festival, marking a 52% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in both new and returning customer segments [55] - Chongde Technology has entered a strategic partnership with GE Vernova, securing an order worth 7 million for synchronous phase camera bearings, which will be delivered by February 2026 [57] - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted, aiming to raise 1.2 billion for the production of high-temperature superconducting materials [54]

Group 1: Market Reactions to Geopolitical Tensions - The announcement of airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities by President Trump has increased uncertainty in capital markets, with investors awaiting potential market movements [1] - Oil prices have risen approximately 10% over the past week, with Brent crude futures up 18% since June 10, reaching a high of $79.04 per barrel [3] - The rental prices for large oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz have more than doubled due to concerns over navigation risks, with rates for supertankers rising from under $20,000 to nearly $48,000 per day [3] Group 2: Economic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations - Morgan Stanley predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, international oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with Oxford University estimating prices could rise to around $130 per barrel under severe conditions [3] - The U.S. is expected to experience increased inflation pressure, with estimates suggesting that every $10 increase in oil prices could raise inflation by 0.3%-0.4% [4] Group 3: Shifts in Energy Imports and Market Dynamics - Europe has increased its imports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S., reducing reliance on the Middle East, while diesel and aviation fuel premiums in Europe have surged to 15-month highs [4] - The U.S. is less affected by these tensions as an energy net exporter, but faces economic slowdown and rising inflation pressures [4] Group 4: Investment Trends and Market Sentiment - Despite predictions of gold prices potentially rising to $4,000 per ounce, gold prices have actually decreased by 2% since the onset of the conflict [4] - There has been a significant outflow from U.S. stock funds, with a net outflow of $18.43 billion, marking the largest weekly outflow in three months [5] - Central banks are shifting their focus from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, with gold currently making up only 3.5% of their reserves [5]

当地时间6月22日，美国总统特朗普宣称美军"成功打击"并"彻底清除"伊朗三处核设施，中东紧张局势 再次升级。作为应对手段之一，伊朗议会认为应关闭承接全球约三分之一海运原油贸易的霍尔木兹海 峡，不过，此举尚待伊朗最高国家安全委员会批准。分析认为，全球大宗商品市场和金融市场都将受到 较大冲击。 数据显示，自一周前以色列对伊朗发动袭击以来，国际原油价格已经上涨了约10%，6月的涨幅超过 20%。 自1988年两伊战争结束后，霍尔木兹海峡一直保持畅通状态。如今，全球约三分之一海运原油贸易通过 霍尔木兹海峡进行。 中信证券同样认为，避险情绪往往在开战前夕就开始催化黄金价格，开战后价格走势出现两种模式。第 一，对于开战前存在市场预期的冲突，金价往往在开战首日冲高回落。第二，对于开战前缺乏市场预期 的冲突，金价在开战后十天左右达到短期高点，待战局明朗后阶段性回落。拉长时间来看，随着美国转 向战略收缩、国际局势不稳定性上升，地缘因素对黄金存在长期持续催化。 股市方面，中东多个国家股市在周日如期开盘。其中，沙特证券交易所主要股票指数TASI指数冲高回 落。截至记者发稿，该指数下跌0.29%。该指数今年整体表现欠佳，年初至今跌幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent military actions between the US and Iran have escalated tensions in the region, with significant implications for global oil prices and economic stability. Group 1: Military Actions and Responses - Over 125 US aircraft, including B-2 stealth bombers, were involved in the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, indicating a serious military commitment from the US [1] - Iran launched a retaliatory strike using 40 missiles against multiple targets in Israel, including Ben Gurion International Airport and biological research facilities, showcasing Iran's military capabilities [3][4] - Iranian officials have condemned the US actions as a violation of international law and have threatened further military responses, including potential attacks on US military bases in the region [6][9][10] Group 2: Economic Implications - The conflict has raised concerns about the security of oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport, with about 20% of the world's oil supply passing through this route [2][15] - Brent crude oil prices have already increased by nearly 10% since the outbreak of the conflict, with expectations of further price hikes as markets reopen [2][15] - Analysts suggest that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could surge above $130 per barrel, significantly impacting global economic growth and inflation [16] Group 3: Regional Reactions - The Houthis in Yemen have vowed to resume attacks on US vessels in the Red Sea in response to the US military actions against Iran, indicating a broader regional conflict [12][13] - The UK and Greece have advised their shipping industries to reassess routes through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz due to heightened threats, reflecting the global shipping industry's concerns [2]

土耳其外交部：土耳其对美国打击伊朗可能产生的影响深表关切。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to an increase in gold prices due to its safe-haven appeal, while the strong performance of the US dollar has exerted pressure on gold prices [5][23] - The basic metals sector is experiencing mixed trends, with copper prices remaining stable amid weak domestic demand, while aluminum prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and inventory reductions [4][18][19] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are supported by safe-haven buying, but face pressure from a strong dollar [5][23] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for various metals, with specific recommendations for companies in the sector [14][22] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices are fluctuating within a high range, with domestic consumption weakening and inventory levels increasing [12][13] - Aluminum: Prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing inventory reductions, with current prices at 20,490 CNY/ton [18][19] - Precious Metals: Gold prices have risen to an average of 786.42 CNY/gram, while silver prices have also seen a slight increase [5][23] 2. Minor Metals - Tungsten: Prices are mixed, with some products seeing slight increases while overall market activity remains subdued [6][56] - Rare Earths: Prices for light and heavy rare earths have increased, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [7] 3. Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao in the aluminum sector, as well as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Lingnan in the precious metals sector [14][22]