多元资产配置

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坚持多元资产配置 关注确定性因素
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-04-27 21:02
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term stability in pension investments, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to asset allocation to withstand market volatility and achieve steady growth over time [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The fundamental principle of pension investment is to ensure "long-term cannot lose," which requires a focus on multi-asset allocation to reduce volatility and enhance the holding experience [2][3]. - Pension investments should be planned with a long-term perspective, typically over 5 to 10 years, balancing long-term returns with short-term fluctuations [2][3]. - The investment framework involves in-depth research on the historical performance of various asset classes and their underlying drivers to identify sustainable investment opportunities [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - Approximately 50% of the portfolio is allocated to bond assets as a base, with smaller allocations to gold and equities, allowing for flexibility based on market conditions [3][4]. - Emphasis is placed on controlling volatility within the investment framework, adhering to a risk parity approach between stocks and bonds, and avoiding participation in bubble assets [3][4]. - The strategy aims to diversify risk by combining different asset classes that perform differently in various market environments [3][4]. Group 3: Fund Selection Criteria - The selection of funds is based on three main criteria: the fund manager's experience through market cycles, clarity of the fund's return sources, and recent performance evaluated through quantitative models [4][5]. - A focus on funds with stable long-term performance and clear revenue sources is prioritized, while avoiding strategies that dilute investment effectiveness [4][5]. - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of proven methodologies over a mix of various strategies, which can lead to inefficiencies [4][5]. Group 4: Equity Investment Approach - The equity investment strategy has evolved from a purely mathematical approach to incorporating market realities, recognizing the influence of market sentiment on short-term price movements [5][6]. - The focus is on identifying "cleanly valued" assets driven by fundamentals rather than market emotions, often found in mature and less popular industries [5][6]. - The investment approach avoids high-difficulty scenarios, concentrating on sectors and companies that are well understood and have stable cash flows [5][6]. Group 5: Team and Platform Support - The success of the pension FOF management is supported by a diverse team with expertise in quantitative analysis, macro research, and fund evaluation, creating a collaborative advantage [7][8]. - The team structure allows for specialized roles, ensuring comprehensive research and analysis for effective asset allocation [7][8]. - The platform's competitive edge includes a robust fixed-income team and a wide range of index products, which help reduce costs and enhance investment strategies [8][9].
两种穿越周期的投资方法论
雪球· 2025-04-24 07:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, contrasting the volatility in the U.S. stock market with the relatively stable A-share market, suggesting that investors should adopt long-term strategies like "timed dollar-cost averaging" and "diversified asset allocation" to navigate market uncertainties [4][5]. Group 1: Timed Dollar-Cost Averaging - The concept of "timed dollar-cost averaging" is a localized adaptation of Benjamin Graham's "dollar-cost averaging," focusing on investing in quality assets with long-term appreciation potential [7][9]. - Quality assets are defined by their long-term value growth expectations and clear valuation benchmarks, with examples including high-dividend stocks and reasonably priced growth stocks [9][10]. - The banking sector in the A-share market is highlighted as a suitable investment direction due to its long-term intrinsic value and stable valuation benchmarks [10][13]. Group 2: Diversified Asset Allocation - Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy" emphasizes the importance of asset allocation based on macroeconomic indicators, categorizing economic conditions into four states and recommending asset classes that perform well in each [16][20]. - The strategy involves creating sub-portfolios for each economic state and then combining them into a larger portfolio, ensuring equal risk contribution from each sub-portfolio [20][21]. - In the A-share market, high-dividend stocks can be seen as having bond-like characteristics, while cyclical stocks are linked to commodity prices, allowing investors to find suitable targets across different economic phases [21][22]. Group 3: Conclusion - Both "timed dollar-cost averaging" and "diversified asset allocation" emphasize the importance of long-term asset preservation and growth, while minimizing short-term speculative trading [31][32]. - The article advocates for simple, clear, and effective investment strategies that can help ordinary investors navigate the complexities of market cycles [32][33].
两种穿越周期的投资方法论
雪球· 2025-04-24 07:53
以下文章来源于楚团长聊聊天 ,作者楚团长 楚团长聊聊天 . 春来不是赚钱天,夏日炎炎正好眠。秋来蚊虫冬又冷,揣好钱包待明年。 长按即可参与 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 楚团长扯投资 来源:雪球 说来也是好笑 , 特朗普2021年创立Truth Social ( 真实社交 ) 平台的初衷 , 是因为其他主流平台承受 不住他的 " 胡言乱语 " , 选择对其账号进行封禁 。 但当站在关税阴云波澜诡谲的当下 , 本该贡献 " 真 相 " 的Truth Social平台 , 反而在特朗普的高强度观点输出下 , 批量制造了大量真伪难辨 、 朝令夕改的 矛盾内容 …… 如何应对特朗普对 " 真实Truth " 一词的重新解构 ? 至少美股尚未找到答案 , 否则美股各大权重指数也不 会在最近两周 , 创出动辄±10%的宽幅波动 。 反观A股 , 由于宏观政策路径相对清晰 , 同时中央汇金等 " 类平准基金 " 平滑市场波动的意愿较为强烈 , 所以A股投资者最近两周并未遭遇惊涛骇浪式的高波动冲击 , 反而可以在流动性充裕的背景下 , 寻找一 些可能的交易性机会 ...
美国紧盯中国美债抛售,没想中国增持黄金,美元霸权地位岌岌可危
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-23 09:38
你说这局谁整谁?美国盯着咱们抛美债看得紧紧的,结果咱们悄悄地在背后搬砖——增持黄金了!这招让人措手不及,美元霸权的"铁饭碗"明显开始松动, 局势比你想得复杂多了。 别光盯着数字,咱得认真掂量掂量:2024年头几个月,中国美债是卖了点,但手里依然紧握7843亿美债。听起来咋样?像是握着一张"王炸",别看表面好像 松手了,其实随时能发力,折腾对手。就好比麻将桌上说要放炮,关键时刻又把牌握死,这套路太让华尔街坐立不安了。 最有意思的是——这不止是美债的问题。咱老早就开始悄悄囤黄金了,到3月末,黄金储备已经猛增到7370万盎司,连续五个月没停手。这动作有多重要? 相当于给人民币加了个超级保险,再怎么美元折腾,咱经济的"安全带"系得死死的。 ——"屯的黄金放哪都没用,哪有实体安全才算数。" 你别小看这步棋,黄金可不是随便囤囤那么简单,这背后折射的,是一场深远的金融角力。美国那帮人一面闹美债抛售一面狂推加息,结果自己债务成本跟 坐火箭一样上蹿下跳。利率高了,谁还敢买?美国自己踏进了"债务怪圈",加息越多,负担越重。咱们增持黄金,不光稳经济,还引得不少国家盯上这招, 全球对美元信心开始变脸。这哪是动摇霸权?简直像是给美元" ...
“降费降佣”推动财富管理行业深度洗牌 买方转型仍有难题待解 ——专访巴蜀养基场公众号联合主理人万幸
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-04-21 12:24
本报记者 罗辑 成都报道 近日,受"关税风暴"冲击,全球资产价格剧烈波动,黄金、美债、A股等大类资产词条频上"热搜",居 民对财富管理的关注迅速攀升。 事实上,随着我国经济发展,居民财富持续积累,财富管理行业迅速成长。然而,面对不确定性激增的 全球经济、政治环境、居民越发多元的个性化财富管理需求,以及监管加码、降费降佣的政策环境,财 富管理行业过去的"卖方模式"已难以为继,深层次变革悄然发生。这其中,以独立客观立场提供专业服 务的买方投顾,成为了破解行业同质化竞争、重塑行业格局的重要"推手"。 在此背景下,《中国经营报》记者专访巴蜀养基场公众号联合主理人万幸。作为有着7年公募基金从业 经历,并从事7年以上理财经理教育的财富管理行业参与者、一线观察者,万幸站在最贴近市场的角 度,解析当前行业转型的阵痛、困局和趋势,在财富管理行业悄然洗牌、格局激变的当下,谋求转型期 的"破局之道"。 《中国经营报》:4月以来,全球资产价格剧烈波动。在这个特殊的时点,你如何看待财富管理行业的 挑战和机遇? 回到问题本身,近期全球资产价格剧烈波动,主要是美国总统特朗普"对等关税"政策引发全球经济、政 治不确定性攀升所致。这背后反映的 ...
“这是一次历史性机会!”关税突袭,基金经理如何应“战”?
券商中国· 2025-04-13 23:17
截至4月13日,距离特朗普亮出"对等关税"牌已经过去了11天,在此期间,全球资本市场集体巨震,但 A股在随后的交易日里迅速回温,走出了波澜壮阔的反弹曲线。 面对市场的巨幅波动,基金经理们打响了一场"黄金坑"战役,有人坚信"这是一次历史性机会",有人直言"波 动既是压力测试,也是超额收益的潜在来源",而"V型"反转的资本市场,也正在用真金白银印证"波动不是风 险,而是机会"的投资哲学。 "这是一次历史性机会" 时间回到一周前,受美国所谓"对等关税"事件影响,清明假期期间,海外市场接连巨震,即使A股并未开盘, 各大论坛却氤氲着焦虑的情绪。 一方认为,在经过清明假期的发酵后,恐慌正在全球市场蔓延,特别是在黄金、美债等避险资产也接连下跌的 情况下,一旦恐慌情绪引发踩踏效应,那么市场将会形成负反馈,杠杆资金的强平潮甚至可能导致流动性危 机。 另一方则认为,虽然短期不确定性下市场难免出现波动,但国内政策空间充足,且资金对潜在的刺激政策仍抱 有期待,若市场持续下行,政策资金或加速进场,市场可能呈现先抑后扬的走势。 "看着同事们在讨论各种可能性,我放空了一会儿,然后坚定了一个想法——这是一次历史性机会。"这家公募 主投科技的 ...
投资组合的改进路径,也是投资者的成长旅程
雪球· 2025-04-01 08:29
以下文章来源于府库 ,作者府库 府库 . 规划投资理财,温暖幸福生活 长按即可参与 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 府库 来源:雪球 在上周,看到兴证全球投顾做的一个调研报告,是与资产配置有关的,为了调研投资者对于多元资产配置的 认知和需求发起了,一共收到了5000多份问卷,针对调研结果,发布了这个报告。 看看这份"免费的午餐",大家觉得味道如何? 01 对资产配置的认可 从调研结果来看,大家觉得自己对于资产配置并不是一个非常了解的状态,但接近一半的人对于多元资产配 置的理念非常认可。同时在另外一张数据表中,有73.97%的人对于多元资产配置可以分散和降低风险的意义 是非常认同的。 认同分散和降低风险的价值,并认可多元资产配置,且基于当前的了解下,形成的投资组合是怎样的呢? 02 多元资产的投资占比 从大家投资的海外金融资产占比中,能看到接近60%的投资者海外金融资产占比小于10%,只有10.48%的投 资者在海外金融资产的占比超过10%,从另外一个数据中,也有不少投资者在组合中没有配置黄金。 这个和我自己过往的感受很类似,我在很多年前就知道资产配 ...
刚刚,利好来了!这些板块上涨概率超80%!
天天基金网· 2025-03-27 11:33
摘要 1、今天,A股成功收红,半导体板块回暖,中药、医疗等板块涨幅居前。 2、刚刚,央行指出将根据国内外经济金融形势择机降准降息。外资集体看好,后市会怎么走? 3、即将迎来的"四月决断"会如何演绎?复盘历史,这些板块在4月上涨概率超过80%! 真话白话说财经,理财不说违心话 --这是第1325 篇白话财经- - 在昨晚美股大跌的背景下,A股港股走出了独立行情,集体收涨。 但是仅有不足1.2万亿的成交额让今天的A股有些"食之无味"了。 (图片来源:东方财富APP,统计截至2025/3/27,不作投资推荐) 分析人士认为,随着国内宏观调控、促增长政策持续落地推进,A股短期调整后将重拾升势,风格将进入再平衡阶段。 A股回暖,两大利好来袭! 对于今天市场的回暖,分析人士认为,主要有两大原因。 一个,是在外围不确定性下,外资集体看好中国市场。 昨晚,特朗普宣布对所有进口汽车征收25%关税,引发美股市场回调。 分析人士认为,由于美联储缩表还在持续,全球资产现在似乎都处于一个存量博弈的状态,在美股表现出色的时候,中国资产往往相对落后,反之亦然。 而外资集体唱多中国股市,也超出了预期,让市场情绪开始回暖。 高盛在最新的报告中 ...
雪球基金入选中国基金报2025年指数生态圈英华典型案例
雪球· 2025-03-27 07:52
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth and recognition of Xueqiu Fund as a leading independent fund sales platform in China, emphasizing its commitment to promoting high-quality index investment and asset allocation solutions for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xueqiu Fund, established in 2016, focuses on providing diversified fund products and asset allocation solutions to meet varying risk-return needs of investors [1]. - The company has experienced rapid growth in user and asset retention, with non-money market fund scale reaching 38.6 billion and stock index fund retention scale at 12.7 billion by the second half of 2024 [1]. - Xueqiu Fund ranks sixth among 100 independent fund sales institutions in terms of equity fund retention scale and stock index fund retention scale [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Tools - Over the past three years, Xueqiu Fund has seen steady growth in index fund sales and scale, with an increasing proportion of index funds within non-money market funds [2]. - The platform promotes a long-term investment strategy centered around index funds and multi-asset allocation, leveraging its community influence [2]. - Xueqiu Fund collaborates with mainstream fund advisory institutions to provide specialized index advisory strategies, utilizing index funds as foundational investment tools [2]. - The company has developed unique investment tools, such as index valuation tools and systematic investment simulators, to help investors optimize costs and reduce volatility [2]. Group 3: Industry Impact - Xueqiu Fund aims to establish index funds as a significant tool for inclusive finance, contributing to the healthy development of the fund industry and index funds [2]. - The company maintains a "buy-side" perspective, continuously optimizing products and services to enhance investor experience [2].
中泰资管天团 | 唐军:希望像桥水那样在“回报流”上做真正的配置
中泰证券资管· 2025-02-27 10:13
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy, highlighting the performance of various asset classes, particularly gold and equities, in the current market environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - COMEX gold ranked second in 2024 with a return of 27.65%, closely trailing the Nasdaq index [2]. - The asset allocation strategy of fund manager Tang Jun has evolved, with gold being a significant holding, peaking at nearly 18% mid-2024, but later decreasing to 13.71% by the end of Q4 2024 [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Tang Jun's investment approach is characterized by a "top-down" strategy that emphasizes low correlation among underlying assets, distinguishing it from traditional FOF managers [8][10]. - He focuses on the concept of "return streams," which involves optimizing risk and enhancing portfolio performance by reducing correlation among assets [10][65]. Group 3: Macro and Micro Analysis - The macroeconomic factors influencing asset allocation include monetary policy and credit expansion, which have become more significant than traditional economic cycles [44][46]. - Tang Jun's framework for asset allocation is structured into three levels: macroeconomic drivers, expectation differences, and low-correlation return streams [106]. Group 4: Tactical Adjustments - Tactical adjustments in asset allocation are made based on market conditions, with a focus on maintaining a disciplined approach to risk management [51][88]. - The strategy includes a dynamic adjustment of asset weights based on macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment, such as the performance of small-cap stocks and the behavior of retail investors [37][39]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic asset allocation will depend on credit expansion, while international considerations will focus on U.S. fiscal policies and their impact on inflation and risk assets [101][103].