Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a significant operation of 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repos starting from June 6, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking a shift in its usual announcement timing from the end of the month to the beginning [1][4][6] Group 1: Operation Details - The buyout reverse repo operation will be conducted with a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - This tool, introduced in October 2024, aims to enhance liquidity management and cross-period adjustment capabilities within one year [1][5] - The PBOC has conducted multiple buyout reverse repo operations up to early June 2025, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1] Group 2: Reasons for the Operation - The operation is primarily aimed at countering liquidity pressure, as 1.2 trillion yuan of reverse repos will mature in June [3][4] - It also serves to strengthen expectation management and policy transparency, with the PBOC breaking the convention of announcing operations at the end of the month [4][6] - The move is seen as a response to the high volume of interbank certificates of deposit maturing in June, which is expected to reach 4.2 trillion yuan, the highest monthly record [4][9] Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The announcement is expected to stabilize market expectations and maintain a reasonable liquidity level in the banking system [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the buyout reverse repo will complement the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) as a channel for medium to long-term liquidity [5][9] - The PBOC's actions are viewed as part of a broader strategy to support credit growth to the real economy and manage liquidity effectively [5][9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a significant liquidity injection through a 10 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation, marking a departure from its usual end-of-month announcements, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining liquidity in the banking system [1][2]. Group 1: Announcement Details - On June 5, 2025, the PBOC released a notice about a 10 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for June 6, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1]. - This operation is part of a new monetary policy tool introduced in October 2024, allowing the PBOC to actively lend funds by purchasing bonds from primary dealers [2]. - The announcement is the first of its kind, as the PBOC typically discloses such operations at the end of the month [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - The early announcement is believed to be a response to the high volume of bank interbank certificates maturing, which helps maintain a stable liquidity environment and control market expectations [2][3]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at encouraging banks to increase credit to the real economy and support government bond issuance, reinforcing the ongoing process of credit easing [3]. Group 3: Future Operations - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue using a combination of buyout reverse repos, medium-term lending facilities (MLF), and other liquidity management tools to ensure a stable liquidity environment [4][5]. - The buyout reverse repo tool complements existing liquidity tools by filling the gap for operations with terms ranging from 1 month to 1 year, thus enhancing the overall liquidity management framework [4].

Group 1 - The central bank's early announcement of large-scale reverse repurchase operations is aimed at maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system and stabilizing market expectations, especially in light of the high volume of interbank certificates of deposit maturing in June 2025, which is projected to reach 4.2 trillion yuan [1][2] - The central bank's policy focus is on encouraging banks to increase credit supply to the real economy and support government bond issuance, with the use of medium-term liquidity tools signaling a commitment to "wide credit" [2] - The central bank has made its monetary policy operations more transparent by disclosing data on various tools used, including reserve requirements and market operations, which enhances communication with the market [3] Group 2 - In May, the central bank released long-term funds of 1 trillion yuan through a reserve requirement cut, with net MLF injections of 375 billion yuan, alleviating liquidity pressure from government bond issuances [4] - The pressure from government bond issuance in June is expected to be lower than in May, and MLF is likely to continue net injections as total tools may pause for additional increments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a significant operation of 1 trillion yuan in reverse repos to enhance market liquidity and stabilize financial markets, breaking the traditional end-of-month announcement pattern [1][2]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On June 6, the PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a 3-month term, following the maturity of 500 billion yuan in 3-month and 700 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos in June [1]. - The early announcement of the reverse repo operation is intended to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, especially as the demand for funds typically increases in June [2][3]. - The PBOC's move to implement reverse repos is seen as a response to the high volume of bank interbank certificates maturing, aiming to control fluctuations in the money market [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The current high level of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) interest rate has led to a decrease in financial institutions' demand for MLF, prompting the PBOC to use reverse repos as a substitute to lower funding costs [3]. - It is anticipated that the PBOC will continue to reduce the scale of MLF operations, with a consistent decline in its balance [4]. - The PBOC is expected to utilize various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to ensure sustained liquidity in the banking system, which is crucial for enhancing credit availability for enterprises and households [4][5].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 6, 2024, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking a significant monetary policy tool introduction [1] - The reverse repurchase operation will be conducted using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price levels, with eligible collateral including government bonds, local government bonds, financial bonds, and corporate credit bonds [1] - Since October 2024, the PBOC has conducted reverse repurchase operations for eight consecutive months, with operation sizes ranging from several hundred billion to over 1 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The early announcement of a large-scale reverse repurchase operation by the PBOC is seen as a response to the high volume of bank interbank certificates maturing in recent months, aimed at stabilizing market expectations and maintaining liquidity [2] - In June, there are 500 billion yuan of 3-month and 700 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing, indicating that the PBOC's actions are part of a broader strategy to support credit growth and government bond issuance [2] - The timing of the reverse repurchase operation is intended to help financial institutions manage their liquidity needs effectively, especially during a month typically characterized by high credit demand [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan after offsetting 125 billion yuan of maturing loans [1] - This marks the third consecutive month of increased MLF operations, with net injections of 200 billion yuan in March, 500 billion yuan in April, and 375 billion yuan in May, indicating a consistent monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy [1][2] - The continuous MLF operations, alongside recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, reflect a "combination punch" approach by the PBOC to enhance liquidity in the market and support economic stability [1][2] Group 2 - The acceleration of government bond supply and the upcoming maturity of 9 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 1.25 trillion yuan in MLF highlight the need for ongoing liquidity support from the PBOC [2] - The PBOC's strategy includes a structural optimization of liquidity tools, as evidenced by the reduction of reverse repos alongside increased MLF, which aims to stabilize short-term funding while meeting banks' medium-term liquidity needs [2][3] - The large net injection of liquidity in May is expected to support credit expansion and social financing growth, leading to a potential "wide credit" phase as policy effects become more apparent [3]

Report Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and daily moving average, the report predicts the trend of various futures on May 23, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will likely have wide - range fluctuations; gold, silver, copper, aluminum, alumina, glass, soda ash, and PVC futures will likely have weak fluctuations; zinc, PTA, and methanol futures will likely have strong fluctuations; iron ore and crude oil futures will likely have wide - range fluctuations; and rebar and hot - rolled coil futures will likely fluctuate and consolidate [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On May 23, 2025, IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2509 and the thirty - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 on May 23, 2025, are likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with corresponding resistance and support levels [2][32][36]. - **Commodity Futures** - **Weak Fluctuation**: Gold (AU2508), silver (AG2508), copper (CU2506), aluminum (AL2507), alumina (AO2509), glass (FG509), soda ash (SA509), and PVC (V2509) futures are expected to have weak fluctuations on May 23, 2025, with support and resistance levels given [2][3][4]. - **Strong Fluctuation**: Zinc (ZN2507), PTA (TA509), and methanol (MA509) futures are expected to have strong fluctuations on May 23, 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels [3][4][5]. - **Wide - Range Fluctuation**: Iron ore (I2509) and crude oil (SC2507) futures are likely to have wide - range fluctuations on May 23, 2025, with specific support and resistance levels [4][77][88]. - **Fluctuation and Consolidation**: Rebar (RB2510) and hot - rolled coil (HC2510) futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate on May 23, 2025, with resistance and support levels provided [3][69][75]. Macro News and Trading Tips - The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23, 2025, with a net investment of 375 billion yuan in May, which is expected to lead to a broad - credit process [5]. - Multiple measures are being taken in China to support the construction of a science - and - technology financial system, including the development of science - and - technology insurance policies and the issuance of over 250 billion yuan of science - and - technology innovation bonds [5]. - The US Trump administration's tax - cut bill has passed the House of Representatives and is awaiting Senate review, which plans to cut taxes by over 4 trillion US dollars and increase the debt ceiling by 4 trillion US dollars [6]. - The Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize around 10% [7]. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On May 22, 2025, international precious - metal futures generally closed lower, and international oil prices weakened. Most London base metals closed lower [9]. - OPEC+ is discussing a third consecutive production increase in July, but no final agreement has been reached [10]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading fees for alumina and natural - rubber futures contracts starting from May 26, 2025 [10]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On May 22, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures showed different trends, with weakening short - term rebound momentum and increasing downward pressure in general [11][12][13]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 22, 2025, the ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2509 had weakening short - term rebound momentum and slightly increasing downward pressure. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract remained flat, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat [32]. - **Commodity Futures**: On May 22, 2025, various commodity futures showed different trends, with some having weakening short - term rebound momentum and increasing downward pressure, while others had short - term upward or downward trends [38][44][51].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 500 billion MLF operation with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 3.75 trillion MLF in May, supporting new credit and social financing growth [2] - The U.S. tax reform plan passed the House with a slight majority, aiming to reduce taxes by over 4 trillion USD over ten years and increase the debt ceiling by 4 trillion USD [2] - Xiaomi launched three new products featuring its self-developed chips and introduced its first SUV model, the Xiaomi YU7, which will be launched in July [2] Group 2 - BYD's monthly sales in Europe surpassed Tesla for the first time, with a 169% year-on-year increase in electric vehicle registrations [3] - The Chinese government is implementing measures to accelerate the development of a technology finance system, including supporting technology insurance and issuing innovation bonds [4] - China's direct foreign investment from January to April reached 57.54 billion USD, a 7.5% year-on-year increase [4] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is optimizing the environment for domestic listings of technology companies and will implement a more flexible new stock issuance mechanism [5] - The A-share market saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.22% at 3380.19 points [5] - Hong Kong's stock indices experienced a significant pullback, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 1.19% [5] Group 4 - Lenovo reported a 23% year-on-year increase in revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter, reaching 16.984 billion USD, with all main business segments achieving double-digit growth [6] - The MSCI announced that CATL's H-shares will be included in the MSCI Global Standard Index starting June 2 [6] Group 5 - The National Energy Administration reported that China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.49 billion kilowatts by the end of April, a 15.9% year-on-year increase [9] - The Beijing humanoid robot innovation center released the world's first standard for humanoid robot intelligence classification [9] - The China Automotive Engineering Society published a group standard for all-solid-state batteries, clarifying definitions and testing methods [9] Group 6 - The top 100 real estate companies in China have seen a 13% decrease in total land reserve value, amounting to 25.23 trillion CNY by the end of 2024 [10] - In May, China's retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles are estimated to be around 1.85 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [10] Group 7 - Apple plans to launch smart glasses by the end of 2026, while halting the development of a smart watch with built-in camera capabilities [11] - OpenAI announced plans to build the world's largest AI data center in Abu Dhabi, with a total capacity of 5GW [11] Group 8 - The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating Google's agreement with Character.AI for potential antitrust violations [12] - Walmart plans to lay off approximately 1,500 employees to reduce costs amid supply chain challenges [12] Group 9 - The Federal Reserve's Waller indicated that if tariffs stabilize at around 10%, interest rate cuts may occur in late 2025 [13] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3 in May, while the services PMI also reached a two-month high [13] Group 10 - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.2 in May, but the services PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48.9, indicating economic contraction [15] - Japan's core machinery orders saw a significant year-on-year increase of 13% in March, raising expectations for further interest rate hikes [15]

"当前外部环境仍面临很大不确定性，国内稳增长政策还不能松劲。"王青判断，综合当月降准及央行各 类中期流动性管理工具操作，5月中长期流动性将处于大额净投放状态。这将为后期新投放信贷、新增 社融提供重要支撑，接下来将出现一个宽信用过程，存量社融和M2增速有望持续走高。 责编:史健 | 审校:张翼鹏 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 首先，4月以来外部环境波动加剧，国内实施超常规逆周期调节。其中，5月7日央行等部门推出包括降 息降准在内的一揽子金融政策措施，全面加大金融对实体经济的支持力度。5月降准后MLF继续大额加 量续作，显示数量型政策工具在持续发力。这在保持银行体系流动性处于充裕状态的同时，会进一步增 加银行的信贷投放能力，更好满足企业和居民的融资需求，增加实体经济信贷融资的可获得性。 其次，5月MLF大额加量续作，也可能意味着本月买断式逆回购将再度缩量续作，以满足商业银行对央 行融资工具需求的结构性调整。4月MLF加量续作5000亿元，当月买断式逆回购缩量5000亿元。由此， 需要结合月末央行公布的买断式逆回购操作规模，判断5月整体中期流动性投放情况。考虑到5月降准落 地，预计本月中期流动性整体投放或出现小幅 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion MLF operation on May 23, with a net injection of 3750 billion MLF for May, indicating a continuous increase in liquidity support for the economy [2][3] - The acceleration of government bond supply and the upcoming maturity of 900 billion reverse repos and 125 billion MLF highlight the liquidity management challenges faced by the PBOC [2][3] - Analysts expect that despite a slight reduction in mid-term liquidity due to the recent rate cuts, the overall liquidity will remain in a net injection state, supporting new credit and social financing growth [4] Group 2 - The interbank market liquidity is currently ample, with short-term funding rates generally declining, indicating a trend towards a more relaxed funding environment [3] - The structural adjustment in the demand for PBOC financing tools suggests that the reverse repo operations may decrease in scale to accommodate the banks' needs [3] - The ongoing uncertainties in the external environment and the need for domestic growth stabilization imply that the PBOC will continue to implement supportive monetary policies [4]