1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, with a package of measures including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy rate, and an increase in the intensity of structural monetary policy tools, aiming to stabilize the economy and improve short - term credit conditions [2][3] - Stabilizing the stock and real estate markets is an important focus of financial policies. Measures such as reducing housing provident fund loan interest rates and optimizing capital - market - supporting monetary policy tools are taken. For bond market investors, the convertible bond allocation position can be appropriately increased [4] - After the "double - cut" policy, the short - end bond interest rate is more likely to decline, while the long - end bond interest rate's trend is more differentiated. Currently, the bond market risk is not high, and the certainty of medium - and short - end interest rates is higher [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Implementation of Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts, and Monetary Policy Easing to Stabilize the Economy - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market, and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy rate, driving the LPR to decline by about 0.1 percentage points [2] - Due to the negative impact of the US tariff policy on China's exports and the decline of the manufacturing PMI in April, the central bank increases the intensity of structural monetary policy tools, such as increasing the re - loan quota for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by 300 billion yuan, setting up a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan", and increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small businesses by 300 billion yuan. The "double - cut" policy is expected to improve short - term credit conditions [3] 3.2. Stabilizing the Stock and Real Estate Markets as Key Focuses of Financial Policies - The central bank governor proposes to cut the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points and merge the 50 - billion - yuan securities - fund - insurance company swap facility and the 30 - billion - yuan stock repurchase and increase re - loan into an 80 - billion - yuan total quota [4] - The CSRC chairman emphasizes serving new - quality productivity and promoting long - term funds to enter the market, while the head of the financial regulatory agency aims to introduce real - estate financing systems and expand the scope of long - term insurance fund investment pilots [4] - Stabilizing the stock market is important for confidence and property income. Increasing long - term funds and creating capital - market - supporting monetary policy tools can reduce stock market tail risks and support the stock market in the long run. Bond market investors can appropriately increase convertible bond positions. Reducing housing provident fund and LPR rates can lower housing purchase costs, and the improvement of real - estate sales needs to be observed [4] 3.3. Empirical Laws of Bond Market Trends after "Double - Cuts" in History - Since 2020, there have been two "double - cuts", in 2020 and 2024, and the rest occurred before 2016. After "double - cuts", the short - end interest rate is more likely to decline, while the long - end interest rate's trend is more differentiated. For example, after the "double - cut" on September 24, 2024, the long - end interest rate increased due to improved risk appetite and strengthened real - estate and fiscal policies [5][6] 3.4. Outlook on the Bond Market after the Implementation of Monetary Easing Measures - On May 7, the bond market showed a differentiated trend, with short - end interest rates falling and 10 - year and 30 - year government bond interest rates rising. After the "double - cut", the risk of a continuous rise in long - end interest rates is low. The bond market is not expected to repeat the situation after the "double - cut" on September 24, 2024. The current bond market risk is not high, and the certainty of medium - and short - end interest rates is higher. If the long - end interest rate rebounds, it can be considered for layout [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is still in a bull market despite perceptions to the contrary, as indicated by the current credit cycle phase [2][3][5] - The current phase is identified as "tight monetary + loose credit," which has been ongoing for three years, leading to a bull market in bonds and a potential for stock market growth [5][6] - Evidence of a shift towards a loose credit cycle includes government policies aimed at increasing liquidity in the economy, such as lowering consumer loan rates and facilitating low-interest loans for technology companies [6][7] Group 2 - The bull market does not imply that all stocks will rise uniformly; historical examples show that even in bullish conditions, a significant percentage of stocks can decline [9] - Institutions have better access to information and resources compared to retail investors, making their stock selections more reliable [9][11] - Monitoring institutional trading behavior is crucial for identifying potential investment opportunities, as active institutional inventory data correlates with stock price performance [11]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a narrow range of consolidation on April 28, with bank stocks strengthening, as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank reached historical highs during the session [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2% to 3288.41 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.62% and 0.65% respectively, with the CSI A500 down by 0.25% [1] - A-share trading volume was 1.08 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - As of April 28, 2025, a total of 4706 listed companies in A-shares had disclosed their Q1 reports, with 2121 companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for approximately 45.07% [1] - Dongwu Securities analyzed that the medium-term outlook for China's monetary policy is leaning towards "loose monetary" [1] - The People's Bank of China implemented an excess renewal of MLF in April, signaling liquidity adjustment and potentially paving the way for "moderate easing" [1] Group 3 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry balanced allocation and leading selection, covering all sub-sectors [2] - The fund utilizes a cyclical sampling method to maintain dynamic balance, closely tracking changes in China's economic structure, and integrating value and growth attributes [2] - This approach aims to help investors smooth out style-switching volatility and achieve one-click allocation of core A-share assets [2]

分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-04-28 研究所 政治局会议明确以国内政策的确定性对冲外部不确定性。存在增 量的要点主要是：创设新的结构性货币政策工具，提及设立服务消费 与养老再贷款；设立新型政策性金融工具，用途是支持科技创新、扩 大消费、稳定外贸等；加大高品质住房供给；持续稳定和活跃资本市 场。所以，会议并未提到前期市场预期的财政政策的总量扩容，以加 快政策的落地实施为主，增量信息需要关注政策性金融工具等，以往 这一工具主要针对投资需求，并且历史上的"宽信用"效果较好，本 次针对科技、消费和外贸等发力。 MLF 操作和关键会议之后，债市对于货币宽松的想象空间反而缩 小了。MLF 和买断式回购可能对降准有替代作用，但其并未具备降准 在总量货币政策中的鲜明信号意义。会议之后，对于货币政策，依然 是降准可以期待，降息比较遥远的状态，对于债券交易而言，似乎与 会议前变化不大。 流动性维持稳定，短端不再调整，已经是后续想象中较为不错的 情况。银行负债和流动性内生环境的修复仍在继 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - In February, M2 growth remained stable, M1 growth declined, social financing growth rebounded, and credit growth decreased. The demand for financing remains robust despite low new home sales, with replacement bonds and corporate loans substituting for each other [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the government bond net financing is strong, indicating that the demand for real economy financing is not weak. In January and February, a total of 854.2 billion yuan of replacement bonds were issued, contributing significantly to the increase in government bonds [3][16]. - The social financing pulse is showing signs of bottoming out and recovering, with M1 and corporate profits expected to trend upward. The report highlights the importance of monitoring M1, corporate profits, and price levels as key variables for economic recovery [3][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Events - The People's Bank of China released financial statistics for February 2025 on March 14, 2025 [8]. 2. Loans: Replacement Bonds and Corporate Loans Substituting Each Other - In January and February, the new RMB loans amounted to 6.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 230 billion yuan. The structure of loans shows a decrease in short-term loans for residents and a steady demand for medium to long-term loans [10][11]. 3. Social Financing: Strong Government Bond Net Financing, Real Economy Financing Demand Not Weak - The new social financing in January and February reached 9.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.32 trillion yuan. The report indicates that the strong net financing of government bonds is a major contributor to this increase [16][17]. 4. Deposits: M1 Growth Short-term Focus on Debt Reduction, Medium-term Focus on Prices - In January and February, new RMB deposits increased by 8.74 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in resident deposits. The report suggests that M1 growth will depend on debt reduction measures and the activity level of the real economy [22][23]. 5. Bond Market: Loose Credit May Drive Interest Rates Up, Favorable for Bond Allocation - The report discusses the government's intention to implement loose monetary policy as a means to achieve loose credit, which may lead to increased bond market supply and rising interest rates, benefiting bond allocation [27][29].

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In February, the social financing scale increased by 2.23 trillion RMB, which is 737.4 billion RMB more year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.2%[4] - New RMB loans added in February were 650.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 326.7 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate loans increased by 1.04 trillion RMB in February, a year-on-year decrease of 540 billion RMB[3] Group 2: Household and Corporate Loan Performance - Household loans showed a net decrease of 389.1 billion RMB, which is a reduction of 201.6 billion RMB compared to the previous year[3] - The performance of short-term household loans was better than that of medium and long-term loans, with short-term loans decreasing by 2.74 billion RMB[3] - Corporate medium and long-term loans saw a decrease of 750 billion RMB year-on-year, attributed to accelerated debt replacement and slow recovery post-Spring Festival[3] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rate remained stable at 7% in February, while M1 growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1%[5] - The increase in non-bank deposits was 2.8 trillion RMB, which is 1.7 trillion RMB more year-on-year[5] - The necessity to boost demand is highlighted, with potential for structural interest rate cuts and increased personal consumption loan issuance[5]