Group 1 - Wall Street expects a significant rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be announced, but believes the stock market will not experience major fluctuations due to the focus on employment data [1] - Options traders anticipate only a 0.7% movement in the S&P 500 index post-CPI report, which is lower than the average actual volatility of 0.9% over the past year [1] - The current market tension revolves around interpreting Federal Reserve interest rate trends, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting and potential further cuts in October and December [1][2] Group 2 - Economists predict a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core CPI for August, with a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] - If the core CPI rises between 0.3% and 0.35%, the S&P 500 index could fluctuate between a decline of 0.25% and an increase of 0.5% [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecasts a 3% annualized growth rate for Q3, indicating strong economic performance despite a slight decrease from Q2 [2] Group 3 - An increase in the Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index, which measures whether economic indicators exceed expectations, is typically a positive signal for the stock market [3] - However, strong economic data could complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation control goals, potentially leading to prolonged high interest rates [3] - The labor market remains a critical variable, with potential interest rate cuts in October suggesting continued pressure on employment data [3]

Employment and Inflation Outlook - The upcoming FOMC meeting in September will be influenced by the recalibration of non-farm payroll data and August inflation figures[2] - The BLS will adjust non-farm employment data based on the QCEW, which covers 97% of businesses, providing a more accurate employment picture[2] - A significant downward revision of 818,000 jobs in March 2024 was noted, marking the second-largest adjustment since 1979, which may lead to a 50bps rate cut in September 2024[2] Inflation Data Expectations - Analysts expect August CPI to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with core CPI also expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month[4] - The impact of tariffs on core CPI is anticipated to manifest gradually, with a moderate effect expected on inflation[4] Market Reactions and Predictions - The recent cooling of U.S. employment data has led to a strong market expectation for a rate cut in September, with a baseline prediction of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year[3] - Gold prices surged to over $3,600 per ounce, driven by falling U.S. Treasury yields and increased risk aversion due to fiscal concerns in the Eurozone[3] Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 48.7, slightly below expectations, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52, indicating mixed economic signals[3] - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.324%[3] GDP Forecasts - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a 3.0% growth for Q3 2025, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates a 2.1% growth for the same period[3]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded mostly lower, with the Dow Jones falling more than 100 points, down 0.30% to 45,481.66, while the NASDAQ rose 0.03% to 21,714.31 and the S&P 500 dropped 0.19% to 6,489.56 [1] - Financial stocks fell by 1.3% on Friday [2] Employment Data - The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, a significant decrease from July's 79,000 and below the expected 75,000 [3][8] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from 4.2%, aligning with forecasts [3][10] - Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, cooling from July's 3.9% [3][10] Commodity Market - Oil prices decreased by 2.3% to $62.03, while gold prices increased by 1% to $3,643.70 [5] - Silver rose by 0.7% to $41.695, and copper increased by 0.1% to $4.5620 [5] European Market - European shares showed mixed results, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 slipping 0.1% and Spain's IBEX 35 Index falling 0.2% [6] Asian Market - Asian markets closed mostly higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 1.03%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 1.43%, and China's Shanghai Composite rising 1.24% [7] Company Performance - Hour Loop Inc shares surged 118% to $4.12, while Pineapple Financial Inc shares rose 71% to $6.98 after closing a $100 million private placement [9] - Peraso Inc shares increased by 58% to $1.29 following an enhanced acquisition bid from Mobix Labs [9] - Youxin Technology Ltd shares dropped 60% to $0.12 after announcing a $6.0 million public offering [9] - Innovation Beverage Group Ltd shares fell 31% to $0.38, and 707 Cayman Holdings Ltd shares decreased by 34% to $0.28 [9]

Core Points - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as crucial for the economy, with Stephen Miran asserting that he was not pressured to support interest rate cuts during his confirmation hearing [1][2][3] - Miran plans to temporarily step down from his role as a senior economic advisor to Trump if confirmed as a Fed governor, which raises concerns about the potential conflict of interest and the independence of the Fed [4][5][6] - Miran has faced scrutiny regarding his past proposals that could increase presidential power over the Fed, including the ability to dismiss Fed officials, which he claims is part of a broader system of checks and balances [6][10] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Independence - Miran stated that the independence of the Federal Reserve is "vital" for the U.S. economy and that he agrees with the need for the Fed to remain independent from political influence [2][3] - He acknowledged that while Trump selected him based on his policy views, he would act independently if confirmed [2][6] Confirmation Hearing Dynamics - Concerns were raised by Senate Banking Committee members about Miran's ability to maintain the Fed's independence, especially given his close ties to the Trump administration [1][5] - Miran's temporary leave from his White House role during his tenure as a Fed governor was criticized as potentially undermining the Fed's independence [5][6] Regulatory and Economic Policy Views - Miran expressed the need for a comprehensive review of regulatory costs and benefits, particularly regarding capital requirements under Basel III [3] - He criticized the Fed's focus on climate change as a sign of political influence and stated he would resist any actions that exceed the Fed's core responsibilities [3][6] Employment Data and Economic Impact - Miran commented on the quality of employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), suggesting it has deteriorated over time, although he did not confirm any allegations of data manipulation [7][8] - He maintained that tariffs have not significantly impacted inflation, despite concerns raised by other senators [9] Interest Rate Policy and Market Reactions - Miran predicted that the bond market would not resist potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, indicating a belief in the market's adaptability to changes in monetary policy [10]

#报告 渣打：警惕美国失业率与新增就业数据的误导。 https://t.co/J5w0A7qhQWNone (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The upcoming week is significant for the stock market due to the release of major employment reports, including Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and private-sector payrolls from ADP [1][2] - Weekly Jobless Claims have shown consistency, currently around 230K, with longer-term claims remaining above 1.94 million for 12 consecutive weeks [3] - The Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to show modest job growth of +75K new jobs, which is similar to the previous month's report [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in response to lower job numbers, indicating that even a surprise increase in job growth would not alter their plans [6] - The S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports for August are anticipated, with S&P expected to remain at 53.3 and ISM expected to rise to 48.5% [7] - Pre-market futures are declining, with major indexes falling below levels from five workdays ago, and bond yields have surged, indicating market volatility [8]

Economic Overview - Pre-market futures are improving following the release of major economic numbers, despite a drawback in EU markets due to rising unemployment and inflation in Germany [1] - U.S. indexes are experiencing volatility, with the small-cap Russell 2000 showing gains while other major indexes remain in the red [1] PCE and Inflation Metrics - July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures were in-line with expectations, indicating no threat to the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut for the September Fed meeting [2] - Personal Income for July increased by 0.4%, the strongest since April, while Personal Spending rose by 0.5%, marking the highest increase since March [3] - The headline PCE Index showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, the lowest since May, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, consistent with the previous month [4] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, indicating stability in inflation metrics [5] Employment Data - July's non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, surpassing the downwardly revised four-month average of 54,000, but significantly lower than the previous year's average of 122,000 [8] - The Fed's focus appears to be shifting from inflation to employment concerns, as weakening employment data is influencing the outlook for interest rates [9] Trade and Inventory Data - Advanced Trade in Goods for July showed a disappointing deficit of $103 billion, more than $10 billion lower than anticipated [10] - Advanced Retail Inventories and Wholesale Inventories both reported a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, indicating stable inventory levels in the current tariff environment [11] Market Expectations - The upcoming week will feature new jobs reports, including July JOLTS numbers and private-sector payrolls from ADP, with the significant BLS non-farm payrolls report expected next week [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The Fed Chair Powell's indication of a September interest rate cut due to easing employment supply - demand, along with Trump's pressure and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions when prices decline [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Gold and Silver Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 28, 2025, the closing price was 779.86 yuan/gram, up 2.24 yuan from the previous day and 8.23 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 30,942, and open interest was 2,396 [2]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9,182 yuan/ten - grams on August 28, 2025, with a trading volume of 475,098 and an open interest change of - 25,366 [2]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,392.20, with a trading volume of 151,643 and an open interest of 336,177. Inventory was 200,824.48 fine ounces [2]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 39.71, trading volume was 54,907, and open interest was 62,636. Inventory was 517,194,775.47 fine ounces [2]. Important Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate was revised up to 3.3%, and the PCE price index was 2.5%. Last week, the initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000, and the continued claims dropped to 1,954,000, both lower than expected [2]. - **Central Bank Policies**: - The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with possible further cuts in the next three to six months [2]. - The European Central Bank may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [2]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [2]. - The Bank of Japan may start to reduce quarterly treasury bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026 and has an expectation of raising interest rates by the end of 2025 [2]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around $3,200 - $3,300 and the resistance level around $3,450 - $3,500. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 800 - 810. For London silver, focus on the support level around $34 - $36 and the resistance level around $37 - $40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, citing potential economic weakness and manageable inflation as key factors influencing this decision [3][5]. Group 1: Rate Cut Support - Waller advocates for an immediate rate cut, suggesting that the FOMC should act quickly given the current economic indicators [3][6]. - He believes that if the upcoming non-farm payroll report shows significant economic weakness while inflation remains controlled, his stance on the necessity of a rate cut may change [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The July non-farm payroll report showed only a 73,000 increase in jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, raising concerns about the labor market [5]. - The downward revision of 258,000 jobs in the previous two months has heightened worries regarding employment [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Waller's comments and the recent employment data have opened the door for a potential rate cut in September, despite ongoing inflation concerns [5]. - The consensus among Fed officials appears to be fracturing, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [6]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Waller anticipates further rate cuts in the next three to six months, contingent on forthcoming economic data [4]. - He emphasizes that the risks in the labor market are accumulating, which necessitates a reassessment of monetary policy [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations on August 25, starting with a decline to around 3359 before rebounding and fluctuating between 3371 and 3362 during the European session, ultimately closing with a small bearish candle [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4 basis points to 3.728% and the 10-year yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 4.271%, which may create competitive pressure on gold [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium indicated rising risks in the U.S. labor market and persistent inflation pressures, leading to an increase in the probability of a September rate cut to 84% from 61.9% a month ago, which initially supported gold prices [2] - The upcoming PCE data is crucial, with expectations for the core inflation rate to rise to 2.9% by the end of 2023; results above expectations could challenge the urgency for rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [2][3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to further influence the Fed's policy direction, with signs of weakening in the U.S. labor market, as indicated by a decline in new single-family home sales [2] - A combination of rising PCE inflation and weak non-farm employment data could lead the Fed to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, which may create mixed signals for gold [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold has entered a high-level consolidation phase since peaking at 3500 in April, with a triangular convergence pattern indicating a balance of forces in the market [5] - The current support and resistance levels for gold are identified at 3320 (support) and 3416-3426 (resistance), with a focus on maintaining positions within this range until a clear breakout occurs [5][6] Group 5: Key Levels and Trading Strategy - The short-term moving averages are showing upward momentum, suggesting a potential for bullish movement if prices remain above the support zone of 3357-3347 [6] - The four-hour analysis indicates that the key levels to watch are 3409 (resistance) and 3311 (support), with a breakout above 3409 signaling further upward movement [8]