Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is experiencing significant growth, with over 1,300 new key emission units added, leading to an increase in total greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 3 billion tons, now covering over 60% of the national CO2 emissions [1] - As of August 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market reached 696 million tons, with a total transaction value of 47.826 billion yuan [1] - The market is becoming more active, with a 44% increase in daily trading volume compared to the previous compliance cycle, and a total transaction value of 18 billion yuan in 2024, the highest since the market's inception [2] Market Activity - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries has led to 1,277 new trading accounts being opened by key emission units as of August 2025 [2] - The trading willingness among key emission units has increased, with total buy and sell orders in the market rising by 232% year-on-year [2] - The average closing price of carbon credits was 69.30 yuan per ton as of August 2025, maintaining a reasonable range despite a global decline in carbon prices [2] Green Transition - The carbon market has played a crucial role in reducing carbon intensity in the power sector, which decreased by 10.8% from 2018 to 2024 [3] - A total of 564 key emission units in the power sector have achieved surplus quotas, amounting to 58.25 million tons, translating to approximately 4 billion yuan in revenue based on the average closing price [3] Policy Support - The central government has issued a comprehensive policy document aimed at advancing the national carbon market, with goals to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 and establish a robust trading system by 2030 [4] - The People's Bank of China is enhancing the green finance system to support the transition to a low-carbon economy [4] Data Governance - The establishment of a refined management process is seen as a key indicator of the maturity of the carbon market's data governance system [5] - Recommendations include developing cross-border carbon trading management measures to support international trading [5]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 401.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan due to 418.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term maturities increased across the board, with the 7-day Shibor leading the rise [1][2] - The weighted average rates for various repo products also saw increases, particularly in the 7-day category, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [5] Shibor Summary - Overnight Shibor rose by 2.10 basis points to 1.4340% [3] - 7-day Shibor increased by 12.80 basis points to 1.5900% [3] - 14-day Shibor went up by 8.90 basis points to 1.6560% [3] Repo Market Summary - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 increased by 2.3 basis points and 3.5 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes decreasing significantly [5] - DR007 and R007 saw larger increases of 11.1 basis points and 18.5 basis points, respectively, with notable reductions in transaction volumes [5] - DR014 and R014 had smaller increases in rates but experienced an increase in transaction volumes [5] Money Market Conditions - The money market showed a tight condition in the morning, with overnight transactions around 1.55%, shifting to a more relaxed state by the afternoon [9] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was active, with 85 certificates issued totaling approximately 133.99 billion yuan [9] Bond Market Summary - The bond market saw rising rates across various maturities, with overall trading sentiment being moderate [10] - Specific increases included a 6 basis point rise for 1-month bonds and a 1.5 basis point rise for 6-month bonds compared to the previous day [10] Future Operations - The People's Bank of China plans to conduct a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on September 25, 2025, with a one-year term [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively developing carbon accounting standards for financial institutions and revising guidelines for sustainable information disclosure to enhance the carbon market and support the country's dual carbon goals [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The carbon market is seen as a crucial foundation for establishing carbon pricing, which can effectively guide resource allocation [1]. - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of financial sector participation in carbon market development to enhance trading activity and improve pricing efficiency [1]. - The PBOC is committed to supporting the healthy development of the carbon market as part of its financial management responsibilities [1]. Group 2: Sustainable Financial Standards - The PBOC, in collaboration with regulatory bodies, has established a unified directory for green financial products to standardize definitions [2]. - The PBOC is leading the development of transformation financial standards for key industries and encouraging pilot projects to support low-carbon transitions in high-emission sectors [2]. - A multilateral sustainable finance classification directory has been jointly released by China, the EU, and Singapore to promote cross-border green finance [2]. Group 3: Financial Institutions and Green Products - The PBOC is enhancing green finance statistics and evaluations for financial institutions, creating tools to support carbon reduction [3]. - In Shanghai, pilot projects are underway to expand carbon reduction support tools, focusing on clean energy and environmental protection [3]. - As of the second quarter of this year, over 1.38 trillion yuan in carbon reduction loans have been issued, with the national green loan balance reaching 42.4 trillion yuan and green bond balance exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan, positioning China as a global leader in these metrics [3]. Group 4: Climate Risk Assessment - The PBOC has conducted climate-related financial risk assessments and stress tests for 24 banks and certain industries to inform macro-prudential policies [3]. - Accurate carbon pricing is deemed essential for optimizing risk scenario designs and better assessing climate-related risks [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The PBOC aims to continuously improve the green financial system and support the carbon market's healthy development through market-oriented measures, contributing to the dual carbon goals and the construction of a beautiful China [3].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has made significant progress over the past four years, becoming a key mechanism for carbon pricing and promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1] Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has outlined plans to accelerate the construction of a unified national carbon market, improve the institutional framework, and expand market coverage [1][2] - The first central document on carbon market development was released, setting clear goals and tasks for the market's advancement by 2027 and 2030 [2][3] Group 2: Key Goals and Tasks - By 2027, the carbon emissions trading market aims to cover major industrial sectors, with a focus on total quota control for stable emission industries [2][3] - The voluntary emission reduction trading market will achieve full coverage in key areas, supporting low-carbon technologies [2][3] Group 3: Market Expansion and Performance - The carbon market has expanded its industry coverage, adding over 1,300 new key emission units, which increases the controlled greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 3 billion tons [4] - The trading volume in 2024 reached a historical high, with an average daily transaction volume up by about 44% compared to the previous compliance cycle [5] Group 4: Data Quality and Management - The Ministry emphasizes data quality as crucial for carbon market construction, implementing a three-tier review mechanism and utilizing big data and blockchain for enhanced regulatory efficiency [6] - The number of non-compliant greenhouse gas emission reports decreased by about 24% year-on-year, indicating improved data quality management [6] Group 5: Impact on Emission Reduction - The carbon market has contributed to a 10.8% reduction in carbon emission intensity in the power sector compared to 2018, highlighting its role in guiding corporate emission reduction strategies [7]

在上海举行的2025年中国碳市场大会上，中国人民银行副行长陆磊在主旨演讲中表示，从全球碳市场发 展经验来看，金融部门参与碳市场建设有助于活跃碳市场交易，提高碳定价效率，防范价格过度波动风 险。陆磊表示，目前，人民银行正在制定金融机构碳核算标准，修订金融机构可持续信息披露指南，强 化金融机构有序开展碳核算并披露可持续信息要求。（上证报） ...

Core Insights - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has seen significant growth, with a cumulative trading volume of nearly 700 million tons and a transaction value of approximately 48 billion RMB as of the end of August 2023, marking a record high for annual transaction value since the market's inception in 2021 [1] - The market's trading activity is increasing, with a 43.55% rise in average daily trading volume compared to the previous compliance cycle, resulting in a total trading volume of 18.9 million tons and a total transaction value of 18.114 billion RMB in 2024, the highest since the market started [1] - The carbon intensity of electricity generation in China decreased by 10.8% in 2024 compared to 2018, highlighting the significant role of the carbon market in achieving emissions reductions [1] Market Expansion - In March 2025, the State Council approved the inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries into the national carbon emissions trading market, expanding the market's coverage [1] - This expansion added over 1,300 new key emission units, increasing the proportion of carbon dioxide emissions covered by the market to over 60% of the national total [1] Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market was launched as a significant policy tool to support China's "dual carbon" goals, with the first batch of newly registered certified voluntary emission reductions starting trading in March 2025 [2] - As of the end of August 2023, the voluntary emission reduction market recorded a cumulative trading volume of 2.7061 million tons and a transaction value of 229 million RMB, with transaction prices frequently exceeding 100 RMB per ton [2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to steadily expand the coverage of the carbon market, enrich trading varieties and methods, and enhance international cooperation in the carbon market sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a significant step in the development of China's carbon market, establishing a clear roadmap and enhancing its strategic position in national climate governance [1] Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market is identified as a crucial mechanism for achieving the "dual carbon" goals, with an emphasis on expanding industry coverage, improving quota allocation, and enhancing market mechanisms [1] - The document outlines a transition from intensity-based quota allocation to total control, prioritizing industries with relatively stable carbon emissions for total quota control by 2027 [2][3] Quota Allocation System - The quota allocation system is central to the carbon trading market, and its effectiveness directly impacts market fairness and efficiency [2] - The current system uses intensity-based allocation, which, while reducing the burden on companies, lacks sufficient constraints for carbon reduction [2] - The shift to total control aims to balance emission reduction targets with economic costs and industry differences [3] Information Disclosure and Transparency - The restructuring of carbon emission accounting and information disclosure is essential for connecting mandatory and voluntary reduction markets, addressing data quality issues, and enhancing carbon price signaling [1][6] - The "Opinions" propose improvements to the information disclosure system, requiring timely public reporting of emissions, compliance, and trading information from key market participants [7] - Current limitations in data disclosure and standardization hinder comparability and transparency, which could affect market efficiency [6][7] Financial Market Opportunities - The introduction of financial institutions and non-compliance entities into the carbon market is expected to enhance liquidity and pricing efficiency through diverse financial products and risk management tools [8][10] - The "Opinions" encourage the development of green financial products related to carbon emissions, aiming to establish a comprehensive carbon pricing mechanism [8][9] - The emphasis on cautious development highlights the importance of risk management in the expansion of financial instruments like futures and options [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - CEA prices continue to decline, and market activity has significantly decreased [4] - It is recommended that companies with a carbon quota gap make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] - The depletion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, and signs of a reversal may appear in Q3 [5] - From September, carbon prices may be under pressure as key emitters release their mandatory circulation allowances. By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and the release of allowances nears completion, carbon prices may start to rise [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: Prices are falling. There are 19.3 tons available for listing and 10.0 tons for bulk trading. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 65.00 yuan/ton, 61.50 yuan/ton, 60.91 yuan/ton, 54.55 yuan/ton, and 55.12 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter two showing declines of -1.71% and -0.68%. The total trading volume of CEA23 is 4.96 tons, and that of CEA24 is 24.36 tons [5][7] - CCER: The volume of listed agreement transactions is 2.93 tons, with an average transaction price of 78.14 yuan/ton, a 2.80% increase. The transaction amount is 228.94 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 298.55 million tons [5][9] Strategies - It is advised that companies with a carbon quota gap make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] - The depletion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, and signs of a reversal may appear in Q3 [5] Core Logic - From September, as key emitters gradually formulate trading plans based on their approved allowances, the accelerated release of mandatory circulation allowances may put pressure on carbon prices [6] - By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, the upward momentum may accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [6]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Guangzhou Carbon Emission Trading Center, Shenzhen Green Exchange, and Macau International Carbon Emission Trading Exchange to promote the development of the carbon market and green finance ecosystem in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1] Group 1 - The four exchanges will explore cooperation opportunities in the carbon market and green finance sectors [1] - The collaboration aims to enhance experience exchange and knowledge sharing among relevant institutions and personnel [1] - The initiative is expected to improve professional capabilities in carbon market operations and green finance [1] - The partnership will contribute to the deepening development of the regional carbon market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Guangzhou Carbon Emission Trading Center, Shenzhen Green Exchange, and Macau International Carbon Emission Trading Exchange to promote the development of the carbon market and green finance ecosystem in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1] Group 1 - The four exchanges will explore cooperation opportunities in the carbon market and green finance sectors [1] - The collaboration aims to enhance experience exchange and knowledge sharing among the institutions involved [1] - The initiative is expected to improve the professional capabilities of relevant institutions and personnel in carbon market operations and green finance [1] - The partnership will contribute to the deepening development of the regional carbon market [1]