Wind数据显示，下周央行公开市场将有6685亿元逆回购到期，其中下周一至下周五分别到期1223亿元、1173亿元、1898亿元、1186亿元、1205亿元。此 外，下周一将有4000亿元182天期买断式逆回购到期、800亿元国库现金定存到期。 华福证券研报认为，央行或仍将在现有框架内维持资金的相对宽松，对于年末因素的扰动也有望加大调控力度，DR001在月初突破1.3%后中枢可能略有回 落，但大概率仍将在1.35%附近，年末资金分层可能有所扩大，但仍有望维持在近年来的偏低水平。 今年以来，央行主要通过买断式逆回购和MLF操作进行中长期流动性供给。同时，央行在10月和11月连续开展公开市场国债买卖操作向市场注入长期流动 性。 据中国人民银行网站消息，央行12月12日公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，将于12月15日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元买断 式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，进一步丰富央行货币政策工具箱，央行在2024年10月启用公开市场买断式逆回购操作工具。操作对象为公开市场业务一级 交易商，原则上每月开展一次操作，期限不超过1年。 （观察 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant volatility, with retail investors aggressively buying while institutional investors were quietly reducing their positions, raising questions about the sustainability of the recent market rally [1][7]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Signals - The State Council emphasized the need for impactful policies and reforms to stimulate economic growth, indicating a commitment to maintaining economic momentum [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on sectors like infrastructure, new energy, and high technology, which are likely to benefit from government support [3]. - Financial regulatory bodies collectively stressed the importance of market stability, with the central bank injecting liquidity through a 900 billion MLF operation [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - There is a notable divergence between retail and institutional investor behavior, with retail investors betting on short-term gains while institutions remain cautious, leading to a net sell-off by active funds [7]. - The recent U.S. CPI data suggests potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could influence A-share market dynamics, although foreign investment remains hesitant [9][10]. - The current market environment is characterized by a tug-of-war between policy support and institutional caution, indicating a complex trading landscape for investors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27, aiming to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will implement a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method for the MLF operation [1] - In October, the central bank has also conducted a net injection of 400 billion yuan through reverse repos, leading to a total net liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan for the month, consistent with the previous month [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Over the past five months, there has been a continuous net injection of medium-term liquidity, with a significant increase in the net injection scale over the last three months [1] - The expected net financing of government bonds in October is projected to reach one trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Regulatory and Policy Signals - Regulatory authorities are encouraging financial institutions to increase credit issuance [1] - The PBOC's ongoing implementation of net liquidity injections signals a sustained commitment to quantitative monetary policy tools [1] - The central bank aims to ensure liquidity is ample, reduce overall financing costs, support consumption, expand effective investment, and stabilize the financial market [1]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation scheduled for October 27, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] Group 1 - The operation will be conducted using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method [1] - The term of the MLF operation will be one year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a 600 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a continued supportive monetary policy stance amid high levels of net liquidity injection [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On September 25, 2025, the PBOC will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased MLF net injection [1]. - In September, the total net liquidity injection reached 600 billion yuan, consistent with August levels, due to 300 billion yuan in MLF maturity and an additional 300 billion yuan in reverse repos [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The sustained net liquidity injection is attributed to three main factors: the peak period of government bond issuance, regulatory encouragement for financial institutions to increase credit supply, and the need to stabilize market expectations amid rising medium- to long-term interest rates [2]. - The PBOC's actions reflect a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to facilitate government bond issuance and meet credit demands from enterprises and households [1][2]. - Expectations for the fourth quarter include further implementation of quantitative monetary policy tools, potential reserve requirement ratio cuts, and continued use of reverse repos and MLF operations to ensure stable liquidity in the market [2].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 401.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan due to 418.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term maturities increased across the board, with the 7-day Shibor leading the rise [1][2] - The weighted average rates for various repo products also saw increases, particularly in the 7-day category, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [5] Shibor Summary - Overnight Shibor rose by 2.10 basis points to 1.4340% [3] - 7-day Shibor increased by 12.80 basis points to 1.5900% [3] - 14-day Shibor went up by 8.90 basis points to 1.6560% [3] Repo Market Summary - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 increased by 2.3 basis points and 3.5 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes decreasing significantly [5] - DR007 and R007 saw larger increases of 11.1 basis points and 18.5 basis points, respectively, with notable reductions in transaction volumes [5] - DR014 and R014 had smaller increases in rates but experienced an increase in transaction volumes [5] Money Market Conditions - The money market showed a tight condition in the morning, with overnight transactions around 1.55%, shifting to a more relaxed state by the afternoon [9] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was active, with 85 certificates issued totaling approximately 133.99 billion yuan [9] Bond Market Summary - The bond market saw rising rates across various maturities, with overall trading sentiment being moderate [10] - Specific increases included a 6 basis point rise for 1-month bonds and a 1.5 basis point rise for 6-month bonds compared to the previous day [10] Future Operations - The People's Bank of China plans to conduct a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on September 25, 2025, with a one-year term [12]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation on August 25, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] - In August, 300 billion MLF matured, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion [2] - Year-to-date, the central bank has injected a total of 3,350 billion through MLF operations, with 2,889 billion maturing, leading to a net injection of 461 billion [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 154.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 90 billion yuan after 64.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The overnight Shibor decreased by 4.40 basis points to 1.4650%, while the 7-day Shibor fell by 2.60 basis points to 1.5230%, and the 14-day Shibor dropped by 0.90 basis points to 1.6560% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term rates continued to decline, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates down by 3.2 basis points and 1.7 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates decreased by 0.5 basis points and 1.1 basis points [4] Group 2 - The money market rates on May 22 showed a balanced funding situation, with overnight rates fluctuating between 1.55% and 1.60% during the day, indicating a tight but stable liquidity environment [9] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was active, with 73 certificates issued on May 21, totaling 45.11 billion yuan [9] - The primary market for certificates of deposit saw a positive trading sentiment, with slight increases in yields across various maturities, reflecting a stable market environment [10] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China announced a planned 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a one-year term, indicating ongoing monetary policy support [12] - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank emphasized the need to support equity investment institutions among the three types of issuers of sci-tech bonds, highlighting the focus on experienced and top-ranked institutions [12]