Core Insights - The sentiment among customers has improved over the past six months, with indications that they are addressing tariffs and feeling more comfortable [1] - There are signs of increased utilization among middle market customers, particularly in distribution and asset-based lending (ABL) [1] - The new tax bill is expected to provide more certainty, potentially leading to economic growth and increased loan growth [1]

据蒙古央行消息，2025年上半年，蒙银行业总资产同比增长15%，新增商业贷 款增长19%，其中本币图格里克存款增长15%。上半年，蒙经济增长5.6%，农 业复苏贡献显著，但矿业低迷拖累贸易和运输业，出口规模减少，汇率承压。 矿产品税收下降12.3%，导致预算收入下滑，赤字达7580亿图格里克（约2.1亿 美元）。 （原标题：2025年上半年蒙古银行业总资产同比增长15%） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth faces challenges such as rising steel inventory pressure and weakening power plant daily consumption [1][4]. - Inflation shows that the rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient, and oil prices have significantly declined [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure 3.1.1 Production: Weakening Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has weakened marginally. On September 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 869,000 tons, a 5.8% decrease from September 2. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19 [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has significantly declined. On September 5, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.4%, a 2.8 - percentage - point decrease from August 29; the capacity utilization rate was 85.8%, a 4.2 - percentage - point decrease from August 29. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.8% on September 5, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from August 29 [4][14]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On September 4, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 59.8%, a 4.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 28; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 67.5%, a 5.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28. The operating rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise. On September 4, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.3%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28, and the operating rate of downstream weaving machines was 62.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from August 28 [4][16]. 3.1.2 Demand: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has turned positive month - on - month. From September 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 196,000 square meters, an 11.2% increase from the same period in August, a 15.4% increase from the same period in September last year, a 20.3% decrease from the same period in September 2023, and a 38.7% decrease from the same period in September 2022. After the Shenzhen property market new policy was released on September 5, the market activity increased [4][22]. - The retail trend of the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][25]. - Steel prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 1.2%, 0.8%, 2.1%, and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2. However, the steel inventory pressure has increased. On September 5, the inventory of five major steel products was 1.0777 million tons, a 313,000 - ton increase from August 29 [4][30]. - Cement prices continue to decline. On September 9, the national cement price index fell 1.0% compared with September 2. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell 3.4% and 4.9% respectively, weaker than the national average [4][30]. - Glass prices have rebounded. On September 9, the active glass futures contract price was 1,199 yuan per ton, a 5.0% increase from September 2 [4][36]. - The container shipping freight index has weakly stabilized. On September 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% compared with August 29, and the SCFI index fell 0.04% [4][38]. 3.2 Inflation: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices - The rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient. On September 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.9 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% increase from September 2. The month - on - month decline has narrowed [4][45]. - The agricultural product price index has steadily rebounded. On September 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.8% compared with September 2. By variety, eggs (up 3.4%) > vegetables (up 2.2%) > chicken (up 0.6%) > fruits (up 0.4%) > pork (up 0.3%) > beef (up 0.3%) > mutton (down 0.3%) [4][49]. 3.2.2 PPI: Significant Decline in Oil Prices - Oil prices have significantly declined. On September 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 66.9 and 62.6 US dollars per barrel, a 3.7% and 4.5% decrease respectively compared with September 9. Major oil - producing countries have decided to increase production, intensifying concerns about oversupply [4][52]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2 [4][55]. - The domestic commodity index has declined month - on - month. On September 9, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.2% compared with September 2, and the CRB index fell 0.7% [4][56].

Core Insights - The report from the State Council indicates that economic growth and other indicators have progressed smoothly this year, with positive developments in employment, consumption, foreign trade, and residents' income [1][2] Economic Performance - The macroeconomic policies have been more proactive and effective in the first half of the year, leading to an all-around expansion of domestic demand and optimization of industrial development [1] - The report highlights that while the overall economic operation is stable, external shocks and internal risks are increasingly intertwined, raising the complexity and uncertainty of China's development environment [1] Policy Recommendations - The report outlines nine key areas for economic work in the second half of the year, including the implementation of central government policies, releasing domestic demand potential, and promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] - It emphasizes the need for continuous reform and opening up, risk prevention in key areas, and comprehensive promotion of regional coordinated development and urban-rural integration [1] Consumer and Employment Focus - To boost domestic demand, the report suggests implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, removing restrictive measures, and introducing several measures to expand service consumption [2] - In terms of improving livelihoods, the report advocates for stabilizing employment and increasing income through policies like enhanced social security subsidies and large-scale vocational skills training [2]

You did warn about the tax on banks which is up for discussion in the UK. What what would happen if they do put more of the onus on you. They they have a they have a tough fiscal situation. Yeah, they absolutely have a difficult fiscal situation and they've got to make choices about taxation and spending.I'm very confident that this government will make the right choices to foster growth which is what that economy needs. Now one part to that and attempting it's if I can use big words it's a fasile and facio ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **A-share market** in China, highlighting recent trends in investor sentiment and market performance amid potential government interventions and economic indicators. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Sentiment Decline**: A-share investor sentiment has decreased significantly, with the weighted MSASI dropping by **32 percentage points** to **126%** and the simple MSASI to **121%** compared to the previous cutoff date of August 28 [2][6][11]. 2. **Market Correction**: Reports of government measures to cool market sentiment have led to a notable market correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index down **1.3%**, CSI 300 Index down **2.1%**, and ChiNext index down **4.2%** on September 4 [4][11]. 3. **Turnover Trends**: Daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and Northbound fell by **26%** (to **RMB 658 billion**), **25%** (to **RMB 2,366 billion**), and **17%** (to **RMB 166 billion**), respectively, indicating reduced trading activity [2][11]. 4. **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading recorded net inflows of **US$ 2.3 billion** from August 28 to September 3, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching **US$ 128.1 billion** and **US$ 3.4 billion**, respectively [3][11]. 5. **Earnings Misses**: The A-share market has seen a moderate miss in earnings, with a slight deterioration compared to Q1 results, indicating potential challenges in corporate fundamentals [11][12]. Additional Important Insights 1. **PMI Indicators**: August PMIs showed a continued growth slowdown, with construction PMI dropping to a record low of **49.1** and manufacturing PMI for consumer goods at **49.2**, reflecting weakening economic conditions [11]. 2. **Government Policy Impact**: The upcoming **15th Five-Year Plan** to be announced in mid-October is expected to be a critical checkpoint for assessing the need for structural reforms to support economic stability [11]. 3. **Monitoring Signposts**: Investors are advised to monitor key indicators such as onshore bond yields, policy catalysts focusing on consumption and social benefits, earnings trajectories, and potential government interventions to stabilize the market [11]. Conclusion - The A-share market is currently facing challenges due to declining investor sentiment, market corrections, and economic indicators suggesting a slowdown. The effectiveness of government interventions and upcoming policy announcements will be crucial in determining the market's trajectory in the near future.

阿塞拜疆"Minval"网8月20日报道，惠誉评级近日发表报告称，阿塞拜疆 与亚美尼亚签署的框架和平协议是朝着达成全面协议迈出的积极一步，降低了 再次发生军事冲突的风险。该框架协议短期内不会影响对两国评级，但中期内 或为贸易增长带来机遇。 （原标题：惠誉评级认为阿亚签署框架和平协议将促进贸易和经济增长） ...

7 月份的零售销售数据推迟了两周才公布，原因是英国国家统计局表示需要"进一步保证质量"。零售分 析师和经济学家对官方支出数据的准确性提出了质疑，他们指出这些数据未能适应季节性变化，也未能 跟上TikTok等社交媒体平台购物热潮的步伐。 这些数据意味着，英国人仍对消费持谨慎态度。消费约占经济的三分之二，工党无法承受消费者保持谨 慎的后果。在借贷成本上升、英国预算责任办公室可能下调生产率预期的背景下，英国政府正在努力重 振经济增长，以避免在即将到来的预算案中大幅增税。 据报道，英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯周三宣布将于11月26日公布年度预算案。经济学家估计，她可能 需要提高税收或削减开支高达510亿英镑(680亿美元)，以填补公共财政的黑洞，并恢复目前略低于100 亿英镑的财政缓冲。 智通财经APP获悉，英国国家统计局周五公布的数据显示，英国7月季调后零售销售额环比增长0.6%， 好于市场预期的0.2%，6月份增幅从0.9%下修至0.3%。尽管7月零售销售额好于预期，但截至7月的三个 月里零售销售额仍出现下滑，表明消费者的谨慎态度继续阻碍工党政府的经济增长计划。 ...

据荷兰中央统计局公布，2024年，荷兰经济规模较2014年增长21.2%，人口增长了6.7%，人均GDP增长 13.6%，达到6.2万欧元，人均实际个人消费增长10.2%。2024年，欧盟经济较2014年增长17.7%，总人口 增长1.6%，人均GDP增长15.8%，人均实际个人消费增长13.3%。因此，荷兰十年的经济增长速度快于 人口增长速度，且高于欧盟平均水平，人均物质生活水平得到了提升。 ...

该机构表示，按现价计算，2025年第二季度的GDP达到105亿欧元。尽管这是自2024年第二季度以 来首次实现增长，但2025年第二季度的经济增长仍"温和"。经季节性和工作日调整后的GDP较 2025年 第一季度环比增长0.6%，同比增长0.5%。 （原标题：爱沙尼亚2025年第二季度经济增长0.9%） 据爱沙尼亚统计局报告显示，爱沙尼亚2025年第二季度国内生产总值同比增长0.9%，这是爱沙尼 亚一年来首次实现正增长的季度。 ...