Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electricity sector [4] Core Views - The electricity sector is experiencing differentiated growth in thermal power, significant improvement in hydropower, and pressure on green energy [3][6] - The overall performance of the electricity sector is expected to continue growing, supported by falling fuel costs and potential recovery in electricity demand [3][6] Summary by Sections Market Review - In Q1 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 2.38 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The industrial power generation decreased by 0.3% year-on-year [10] - The generation from thermal, hydropower, nuclear, solar, and wind sources changed by -4.7%, +5.9%, +12.8%, +19.5%, and +9.3% respectively [10] - Coal prices have significantly decreased, with the Q1 average price for North Port Q5500 at 733 RMB/ton, down 19.2% year-on-year [18] Performance Overview - In 2024, thermal power companies achieved a net profit of 646 billion RMB, up 31.91% year-on-year, while hydropower companies reported a net profit of 563 billion RMB, up 17.31% [2] - In Q1 2025, the electricity sector's total revenue was 464.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.96% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 7.83% year-on-year to 50.7 billion RMB [3][27] Fund Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the proportion of active funds in the electricity and public utilities sector decreased to 1.37%, down 0.55 percentage points from Q4 2024 [32] - The combined holdings of both active and index funds in the sector stood at 2.02% in Q1 2025, reflecting a downward trend [32][33] Investment Recommendations - Focus on thermal power companies with strong profitability and low electricity price risks, such as Huadian International and Huaneng International [6] - Long-term investment potential is seen in hydropower and nuclear power assets due to their high dividend yields and stable performance [6] - Attention is also recommended for green energy sectors as trading and consumption issues are expected to improve [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Views - The company continues to expand its green energy segment, showcasing a high dividend yield that reflects its investment value [1]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.944 billion yuan, up 14.04% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 7.337 billion yuan, down 9.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, down 12.82% year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company completed a total power generation of 586.23 billion kWh, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, with coal power generation at 416.05 billion kWh, up 3.5% [1]. - The coal power segment's fuel cost was 8.931 billion yuan, with a corresponding cost per kWh of 0.278 yuan, a decrease of 0.019 yuan per kWh year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for coal power improved by 4.89 percentage points to 15.57% in 2024 [1]. Growth and Expansion - The company has made significant progress in its green energy projects, including the commissioning of a 600,000 kW offshore wind power project in Hainan and obtaining construction indicators for additional wind and solar projects [3]. - By the end of 2024, the installed capacity for wind and solar power reached 2.825 million kW and 2.441 million kW, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 18.36% and 14.53% [1]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.45 yuan per share in 2024, totaling 2.202 billion yuan, which represents 55.84% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [3]. - The current dividend yield stands at 5.1% as of April 30, 2025 [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 projects net profits of 4.024 billion yuan, 4.239 billion yuan, and 4.370 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82 yuan, 0.87 yuan, and 0.89 yuan [4]. - The report indicates a stable fundamental outlook for the company, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 11 for 2025 and 10 for 2026 and 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 29.717 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.13%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.81% to 6.111 billion yuan [1][2] - The company aims to focus on the expansion of green energy, particularly wind and solar power, despite facing challenges from declining electricity prices [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.717 billion yuan, up 12.13% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.111 billion yuan, down 14.81% [1][2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.628 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.47% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.447 billion yuan, an increase of 1.16% [1] Capacity and Generation - By the end of 2024, the company's installed capacity reached 47.9614 million kilowatts, with wind power at 22.432 million kilowatts (up 15.5%) and solar power at 24.2657 million kilowatts (up 22.5%) [2] - The total electricity generation for 2024 was 71.952 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 30.40% year-on-year, with wind power generation at 45.173 billion kilowatt-hours (up 15.96%) and solar power generation at 25.401 billion kilowatt-hours (up 65.44%) [2] Profitability Forecast - Due to significant declines in grid electricity prices, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 7.044 billion yuan and 7.234 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.25 yuan for 2025 and 0.26 yuan for 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17 for 2025 and 16 for 2027 [3][5] Strategic Focus - The company is strategically shifting its focus towards its core business by divesting from hydroelectric operations, which has resulted in significant non-recurring gains [3] - The company has a substantial pipeline of projects, with 12.1982 million kilowatts of newly approved capacity and 16.4385 million kilowatts of projects under construction planned for the future [3]

丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨龙源电力（001289.SZ） [Table_Title] 偏弱来风限制业绩表现，内生外延保障长期成长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受偏弱来风影响，一季度公司风电平均利用小时同比下降 55 小时，但新能源装机保持快速扩 张，剔除火电剥离因素，一季度发电量同比增长 8.81%。公司一季度营业收入同比减少 19.00%， 营收的偏弱表现主因系火电资产的剥离影响。随着新能源项目的持续投产，折旧摊销等成本同 比增加，新能源成本增加幅度大于售电收入的增加，新能源板块毛利率预计有所下滑。在火电 业务剥离、新能源经营承压的共同影响下，公司 2025 年一季度实现归母净利润 19.02 亿元， 同比减少 22.07%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 邬博华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 SFC：BQK482 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of green electricity and green certificate markets is essential for promoting a green and low-carbon energy structure, stimulating market vitality, guiding green consumption, and facilitating the green transformation of the economy and society [1][2]. Group 1: Green Electricity and Green Certificate Market Development - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have issued guidelines to promote the high-quality development of the green electricity certificate market, focusing on stabilizing supply, stimulating demand, and improving mechanisms [1]. - The transition from passive compliance to active choice in green electricity consumption is encouraged, aiming to create a virtuous ecosystem where enterprises actively consume green electricity and collaborate across the supply chain [1]. Group 2: Mechanisms and Incentives - A combination of mandatory and voluntary green certificate consumption mechanisms is proposed, targeting high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries to enhance green electricity consumption [2]. - The establishment of a tiered green electricity consumption ratio is suggested, with support for companies exceeding their consumption targets through government purchases, subsidies, and tax incentives [1][2]. Group 3: Integration with Carbon Markets - The integration of green electricity and certificates with carbon markets and sustainable disclosure standards is emphasized, providing diverse pathways for achieving carbon neutrality [2]. - Companies are encouraged to include green certificate purchases in their ESG reports and to disclose their green electricity consumption progress [2]. Group 4: Financial Support for Green Electricity Consumption - The development of supply chain financial products based on green electricity consumption is advocated, including green electricity receivables financing and credit loans [3]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to offer preferential loan terms and establish green electricity consumption interest subsidy loans for qualifying enterprises [3]. Group 5: International Standards and Cooperation - Accelerating alignment with international green certificate standards is crucial, with a focus on enhancing the recognition of "Chinese green certificates" in global markets [4]. - The establishment of international green supply chain alliances is encouraged to set unified emission reduction goals and certification standards, facilitating collaborative carbon reduction efforts [4].

当前新能源发电行业正处于政策逐步明朗化阶段。随着 136 号文的实施，未来 新增项目的机制电量和电价情况将更加清晰。国家对于绿电消纳问题提出了解 • 福建省投资集团启动永泰抽蓄项目 51%股权的注入程序，未来平海湾三期 等优质资产也在持续开发中。这些资产的注入将推动中闽能源长期利润中 枢迈上新台阶。 • 中闽能源作为福建省内核心海风运营平台，拥有丰富且优质的海风资源。 福建省海风资源是国内最优质的绿电资源之一，目前电价逐步回归合理区 间，整体资产价值回升显著。 决方案，这将提高绿电板块长期投资回报的确定性，并推动整个行业进入更加 理性的状态，从而改善供需关系。此外，一些细节上的边际改善，如现金流改 善、国补发放加速，也值得期待。这些政策变化为新能源发电行业的发展提供 了良好的环境，有助于提升项目回报率。 中闽能源 20250428 摘要 • 中闽能源海上风电项目利用小时数和发电效率突出，直配项目电价较高， 保证了投资收益率。控股股东福建省投资开发集团承诺注入平海湾三期等 资产，增强公司成长性和盈利能力。 • 新能源发电行业政策逐步明朗化，136 号文的实施将使新增项目机制电量 和电价更加清晰。绿电消纳解决方案 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" and is maintained [12] Core Insights - The heavy stockholding ratio of public funds in the utility sector decreased to 0.96% in Q1 2025, down 0.37 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a continued decline in allocation [2][6] - Despite the overall decline in holdings, certain companies, particularly in the thermal power sector, have seen an increase in investment due to favorable pricing in their operational regions [2][7] - The report emphasizes a shift towards alpha-focused investments over beta, highlighting the importance of risk-reward ratios in the green energy sector [2][9] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Overview - In Q1 2025, the public fund's heavy stockholding ratio in the utility sector was 0.96%, with a historical percentile of 37.7% and an underweight ratio of -2.03% [19][20] - The electricity sector's holding ratio was 0.94%, with thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and renewable energy holding ratios at 40.83%, 47.12%, 3.27%, and 8.71% respectively [20] Thermal Power - The thermal power sector saw a decline in overall holdings, with major companies like China Huadian International becoming a consensus target for investment due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and better pricing [7][26] - The decline in holdings is attributed to adjustments in long-term contract prices and a shift in market style favoring more aggressive assets [26][27] Hydropower - Hydropower holdings continued to decrease, but core assets like Yangtze Power maintained high valuations, with attractive dividend yields compared to government bonds [8][35] - The sector's valuation has become appealing after adjustments since Q3 2024, with significant dividend value highlighted [35] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector's holdings decreased, but leading companies like Longyuan Power and Zhongmin Energy saw increased investments, reflecting a focus on high-reward opportunities [9][43] - The report suggests that the sector is poised for a rebound as supportive policies for green energy consumption become clearer [43] Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector's holdings dropped significantly due to concerns over profit expectations linked to falling electricity prices, but the long-term value remains intact as new production cycles begin [10][27]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 电力 迎峰度夏将至，重视煤价后置下的火电机会 本周行情回顾：本周（4.21-4.25）上证指数报收 3,295.06 点，上涨 0.56%， 沪深 300 指数报收 3786.99 点，上涨 0.38%。中信电力及公用事业指数 报收 2894.72 点，上涨 2.06%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.68pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 8 位。 本周行业观点： 投资建议：电力公司业绩陆续发布，基本面支撑与市场风格共振，重视电 力投资机会布局。迎峰度夏将至，本周煤价下跌至 665 元/吨附近，成本 超预期下跌支撑度电盈利改善，重视火电超额机会，建议关注重点火电标 的：华电国际、皖能电力、浙能电力、华能国际、建投能源；以及火电改 造设备龙头：青达环保。推荐布局低估绿电板块，推荐优先关注低估港股 绿电以及风电运营商，建议关注新天绿色能源（H）、龙源电力（H）、中 闽能源、福能股份。把握水核防御，水电板块，建议关注长江电力、国投 电力、川投能源、华能水电；核电板块，建议关注中国核电和中国广核。 风险提示：原料价格超预 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 电力 迎峰度夏将至，重视煤价后置下的火电机会 本周行情回顾：本周（4.21-4.25）上证指数报收 3,295.06 点，上涨 0.56%， 沪深 300 指数报收 3786.99 点，上涨 0.38%。中信电力及公用事业指数 报收 2894.72 点，上涨 2.06%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.68pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 8 位。 本周行业观点： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 电力 沪深300 作者 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 分析师 高紫明 执业证书编号：S0680524100001 邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com 投资建议：电力公司业绩陆续发布，基本面支撑与市场风格共振，重视电 力投资机会布局。迎峰度夏将至，本周煤价下跌至 665 元/吨附近，成本 超预期下跌支撑度电盈利改善，重视火电超额机会，建议关注重点火电标 的 ...

Core Viewpoint - 京能电力 announced a distribution plan for the fiscal year 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling approximately 803 million yuan, which represents 46.62% of its net profit and a dividend yield of 3.54% based on the average trading price for the year [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, 京能电力 reported total revenue of 35.428 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.54%. The net profit reached 1.723 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 95.52%. The basic earnings per share were 0.23 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 6.84% [2]. Historical Distribution Overview - Since its listing, 京能电力 has implemented a total of 24 cash distributions. The most recent distribution plan for 2024 is compared to previous years, showing a consistent trend in dividend payments, with the 2023 distribution being 1.05 yuan per 10 shares and the 2022 distribution being 1.2 yuan per 10 shares [1][2]. Market Activity - The stock experienced a net inflow of 18.79 million yuan from major funds today, with a total net inflow of 40.48 million yuan over the past five days [3]. - The latest margin financing balance for the stock is 309 million yuan, which has decreased by 1.95 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 0.63% [4]. Industry Comparison - In the public utility sector, 京能电力's cash distribution of 803.34 million yuan ranks it among the top companies, with 新奥股份 leading at 6.327 billion yuan, followed by 中国广核 and 华能国际 with distributions of 4.797 billion yuan and 4.238 billion yuan, respectively [4].