Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history [1] - The shutdown began on October 1, 2023, due to disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over healthcare and welfare spending, resulting in the Senate failing to pass a temporary funding bill before the fiscal year ended [1] - Since 1980, there have been 15 instances of federal government shutdowns, with the majority lasting only 1 to 3 days, but recent years have seen multiple shutdown crises [1] Economic Impact - The ongoing shutdown is exerting continuous pressure on sectors such as aviation, food, and healthcare [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the prolonged shutdown could reduce the annualized GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter of this year, with an estimated economic output loss of $7 billion to $14 billion that may not be recoverable [1]

换资前言： 投资市场，是风险与收益的博弈，小止损博取大利润是投资的魅力，投资者不要仅看到收益，而忽视掉 风险；实质上，成功的交易者，更应注重的是风险，钱是赚不完的，而本金却是有限的，所以只有在保 证有限的本金为前提，才能去博取利润，收益于风险是并存的，可以说投资的成功取决于对风险的控制 上面，风险控制的越小，成功的几率也就越大！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三（11月5日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3936.59美元/盎司。周二现货黄金震荡下跌 1.7%，收报3931.78美元/盎司，美联储官员内部分歧加大，市场对美联储12月降息预期降温，帮助美元 指数升破100关口，刷新逾三个月高点，对金价打压明显。不过，美国股市泡沫隐忧与美国政府史上最 长停摆仍给金价提供避险支撑。短期内，黄金空头略占上风，金价短线面临进一步回调风险，但若周三 ADP民间就业数据爆冷，金价或迎来戏剧性反转。美国联邦政府停摆已进入第35天，追平历史纪录。 官方经济数据的缺失使市场更加依赖ADP等民间机构发布的就业报告。投资者正仔细分析美联储官员 的言论，以寻找货币政策方向的线索。 此次金价下跌的 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the initial signs of thawing in the political deadlock that led to a partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government, with bipartisan congressional leaders expressing cautious optimism about breaking the stalemate [1] - The ongoing deadlock has lasted for 34 days since the new fiscal year began on October 1, resulting in a freeze of approximately $1.7 trillion in discretionary government funding, affecting various federal programs and services [1] Group 1: Political Dynamics - Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed optimism about ending the government shutdown, indicating that they are "close to an 'exit'" [1] - Senator Dick Durbin acknowledged progress but highlighted that the core issue remains the healthcare cost problem, which must be addressed in any final agreement [1][3] - Senator Susan Collins noted that both sides' staff have made progress, but she cautioned that the situation is still fragile and could collapse again [2] Group 2: Key Issues - The main obstacle in negotiations is the impending expiration of U.S. health insurance subsidies, which Democrats have linked to government funding, making it a central issue in the talks [3] - The ongoing shutdown has directly impacted low-income families, with food stamp benefits expiring or being partially funded, increasing the urgency for a compromise [3] Group 3: Compromise Efforts - A bipartisan group of moderate House members has proposed a compromise plan to extend tax credits under the Affordable Care Act for two years while setting new income thresholds for those at the eligibility limit [4] - This proposal represents a new attempt to break the political deadlock, as previous non-public meetings among Senate members have not yielded results [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market may continue to experience wide - range fluctuations. The tariff policy narrative is uncertain, and the ongoing US government shutdown and central bank gold - buying expectations provide bottom support for gold prices. However, the strengthening of the US dollar and long - term yields pose potential pressure on gold prices. The weakening of the interest - rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar may hinder the upward movement of gold prices. If the narrative of the end of the US government shutdown heats up, it may also suppress the upward expectation of gold prices. It is recommended to adopt an interval - band trading strategy. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is 890 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 915.58 yuan/gram, down 7 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11238 yuan/kilogram, down 217 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 144602 hands, down 6771 hands; those of Shanghai Silver are 257090 hands, down 4377 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 101888 hands, down 2567 hands; those of Shanghai Silver are 93370 hands, down 192 hands [3] 3.2现货市场 - The warehouse - receipt quantity of gold is 87816 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 665610 kilograms, up 6759 kilograms. The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 916 yuan/gram, down 1.5 yuan; the spot price of silver is 11343 yuan/kilogram, down 7 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 0.42 yuan/gram, up 5.5 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 105 yuan/kilogram, up 210 yuan [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 1041.78 tons, up 2.58 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15189.82 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver are 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 35.96%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 26.96%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 25.83%, down 0.59%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 25.83%, down 0.59% [3] 3.5 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways. A Fed governor called for more aggressive interest - rate cuts, saying that the Fed's policy is too tight. Another Fed governor said that each Fed meeting is real - time for monetary policy, and the Fed's dual - mandate risks have increased. The US October ISM manufacturing index was 48.7, remaining below the boom - bust line, and the tariff policy still suppresses the manufacturing outlook [3]

随着美国东部时间进入11月4日，美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第35天，追平美国史上最长"停摆"纪录。在过去的30多 天里，美国民主、共和两党僵持不下，在国会参议院的13次投票中均未能通过共和党提出的一项临时拨款法案。 据悉，国会参议院还将于当地时间今天（11月4日）举行第14轮投票。美国总统特朗普11月3日再次呼吁国会共和 党领袖修改参议院规则、取消"冗长辩论"机制（即阻挠议事）以结束政府"停摆"，但这一要求在共和党内部遭到 强烈反对。 受此轮美国政府"停摆"影响，美国民航、食品、医疗等领域面临持续压力。美国国会预算办公室日前表示，根据 联邦政府"停摆"持续时间的长短，预计今年四季度美国实际国内生产总值的年增长率将下降一至两个百分点。这 意味着"停摆"持续4周，美国经济将损失70亿美元；持续6周，损失将上升至110亿美元；持续8周，损失则将高达 140亿美元。 △资料图 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government is showing initial signs of thawing after a month-long political deadlock, with bipartisan senior lawmakers expressing cautious optimism about breaking the impasse, which alleviates market concerns regarding U.S. economic and political stability [1][2] - The deadlock has led to a partial government shutdown affecting approximately $1.7 trillion in discretionary spending, which constitutes one-third of the annual federal budget, impacting thousands of federal employees and essential services [1][3] Group 1: Political Dynamics - Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed optimism about ending the government shutdown, indicating that they are "close to an exit," marking a significant shift in tone after weeks of stalemate [1][2] - Senator Dick Durbin acknowledged progress but highlighted that the core issue remains the healthcare cost problem, indicating that any final agreement must address Democratic concerns regarding healthcare subsidies [1][3] Group 2: Key Issues - The primary obstacle in negotiations is the impending expiration of U.S. health insurance subsidies, which Democrats have linked to government funding, making it a central issue in the discussions [3] - The ongoing shutdown has directly impacted low-income families, with food stamp benefits expiring or being partially funded, increasing the urgency for a compromise [3] Group 3: Compromise Efforts - A bipartisan group of moderate lawmakers is attempting to find a breakthrough, proposing a compromise plan that suggests extending tax credits under the Affordable Care Act for two years while setting new income thresholds for those at the eligibility limit [4] - Despite sporadic private meetings among Senate bipartisan groups since October 1, no significant progress has been made until the recent proposal from the House moderates, representing a new attempt to resolve the political deadlock [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing short-term pressure due to diverging Federal Reserve policies and a government shutdown, while long-term support factors remain intact, indicating a pause in the upward trend rather than a collapse [2][3]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Short-term pressures are primarily caused by increasing divisions within the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from nearly 100% to 65.3% after Powell's comments [2]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a halt in key economic data releases, pushing the dollar index to a three-month high and suppressing gold prices [2]. - Additional negative factors include China's termination of tax exemptions for certain gold retailers, which weakens physical demand, and a surge in U.S. corporate bond issuance that diverts funds and raises U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Long-term Support Logic - Key factors such as global geopolitical risks, rising inflation, and central bank gold purchases have not changed, suggesting that the recent pause in gold price increases is temporary [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, after reaching 4381 in mid-October, gold faced significant pullback, but the pace of decline is slowing, indicating a potential for stabilization [5]. - In the four-hour chart, gold initially dipped before recovering, with key resistance levels identified at 4030/4031 and 4046, while support is noted at 3962 [7].

另据美国政府3日表示，在法官裁决要求食品援助计划继续实施后，美国联邦食品救济项目"补充营 养援助计划"将获得部分资金。一份法庭文件显示，美国农业部将动用应急资金，部分支付11月份的"补 充营养援助计划"食品福利金。作为美国社会保障体系的重要组成部分，该项目覆盖全美总人口约八分 之一。 央广网北京11月4日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，美国航空协会3 日表示，自10月1日美政府"停摆"以来，由于空中交通管制人员配备问题，已有超过320万名美国航空旅 客受到航班延误或取消的影响。 美国航空协会表示，10月份延误的航班中，有16%是由于人员配备问题引发的，仅10月31日一天， 就有超过30万旅客受到影响，这是自政府"停摆"开始以来受影响最严重的一天。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment and potential decline, with a need for clearer fundamental signals to determine future trends [1][5]. Market Performance - On November 3, gold opened at $3990.81 per ounce, reached a low of $3962.57, and fluctuated between $3995 and $4030, closing at $4001.34, marking a slight decline of $2.25 or 0.056% from the previous close [1]. - The price has retraced over 11% from its historical high on October 20 but has since reduced the monthly decline to around 8%, reflecting a typical "high-level breathing" phase [5]. Influencing Factors - Increased speculative selling pressure due to rising gold tax costs and political negotiations in the U.S. contributed to the initial decline in gold prices [3]. - The market is currently awaiting key economic data releases, including the ADP employment report and ISM PMI, which are expected to influence gold prices depending on whether they meet or fall short of market expectations [3]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a potential downward trend, with expectations of a drop to $3800 or even $3700 unless the price can close above $4100 [5]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold has encountered resistance at previous trend lines, and the current support level is near the 10-week moving average, with a potential rebound if it breaks above the 5-week moving average [7]. Short-term Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold remains focused on range trading, with expectations of continued volatility until the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and the release of non-farm payroll data [3][5]. - Key support levels to watch are $3970 and $3940, while resistance levels are at $4015 and $4030 [9].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant disconnect between economic growth and consumer confidence, indicating structural issues in the economy [6][8][24] - It discusses the implications of recent economic data, including GDP growth, employment figures, and asset price movements, suggesting a shift in capital towards tangible assets [10][12][22] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for Q3 remains at 3.9%, but the consumer confidence index has dropped to 53.6, marking a five-month low [6] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1, while the services PMI is at the critical threshold of 50.0 [7] Employment Situation - The unemployment rate is estimated at approximately 4.34%, with ADP data showing a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in September [9][14] - Historical patterns indicate that when private employment turns negative while GDP remains positive, at least one economic indicator is misaligned with reality [9] Asset Movements - Gold prices have surpassed $4,003, reflecting a year-to-date increase of about 45%, while the dollar index has decreased by approximately 10% since the beginning of the year [10] - Bitcoin is hovering around $110,000, with a concentration of short positions in the market [11] Market Signals - The article suggests that capital is moving from paper assets to physical safe havens, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [12] - The Federal Reserve's probability of a rate cut in December is estimated at 69.8%, amidst a backdrop of significant economic uncertainty [18] Future Observations - Key upcoming data points include the ISM manufacturing data, ADP employment figures, and services PMI, which will be critical in assessing economic health [22] - If manufacturing PMI remains below 50 and ADP job growth is under 50, the likelihood of a recession could increase significantly [22] Broader Implications - The article notes that past government shutdowns have led to stock market rebounds, but the current debt situation is concerning, with projections of federal debt reaching $38 trillion by 2025 [20] - The impact of artificial intelligence on productivity is noted, but it is suggested that this may be masking underlying weaknesses in the manufacturing sector [21]