| 2日晚间，比特币突然震荡加剧，盘中一度跌破110000美元。截至发稿，比特币微涨，不过，以太坊等加密货币纷纷小跌，狗狗币跌1%。 | | --- | | | Ranking | Symbol | Price | Price (24h%) | Funding Rate | Volume (24h) | Volume (24h9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 | 1 | B BTC | $110200 | +0.08% | 0.0066% | $63.31B | +23.90% | | 47 | 2 | ETH | $3873.46 | -0.02% | 0.0069% | $48.05B | +29.97% | | 公 | 3 | SOL | $186.27 | +0.02% | 0.0047% | $12.07B | +22.77% | | 4 | 4 | XRP | $2.5162 | +0.62% | 0.0034% | $4.20B | +33.78% | | 4 | 5 | НУРЕ | $42.247 | -2.7 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 32nd day, exacerbating crises in the livelihood sector, particularly affecting low-income individuals due to halted relief programs and rising healthcare costs [2] - The delay in payments for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has left millions without food assistance, leading to increased queues at food distribution points across the country [3][4] - The shutdown has also impacted the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), which serves 5.9 million households, leaving many low-income families facing a cold winter without heating [10][12] Group 1: Impact on Low-Income Families - The interruption of SNAP has resulted in a significant increase in the number of people seeking food assistance, with reports of queues being three to four times longer than usual in areas like the Bronx and Atlanta [4][5] - Many families, already struggling with inflation, are further burdened by the inability to receive paychecks due to the shutdown, particularly affecting federal employees and their families [5][7] - The urgency for Congress to resolve the shutdown is growing, as rising healthcare costs are leading to public discontent, prompting warnings from the Democratic Party about the need for action [9] Group 2: Energy Assistance Challenges - The LIHEAP, which is crucial for helping low-income families pay for heating and utility costs, is facing delays in funding due to the government shutdown, with some states already announcing postponements [12][14] - The potential delay in energy assistance could extend into January, creating uncertainty about how states will manage their plans and distribute funds once available [14] - The executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors' Association highlighted that the delays in energy assistance and other critical benefits could push many families living on the edge of poverty into deeper hardship [16]

越南那边西贡珠宝的金条报出下调，跌幅大约0.81%，每两钱换算成美元大概是5595美元，金饰也跟着掉了些价，买家看到便宜货就动手，原本握着现金的 人开始分散进场。 国际金价在回落后又短暂反弹到每盎司大约4009美元上下，4000美元成了摆在人眼前的一道坎，跌破了会触发止损或者恐慌性抛售，不跌破又像有把看不见 的手在拉着价格。 与此美联储在10月29日宣布降息25个基点，把联邦基金利率目标区间调到3.75%到4.00%，这是今年9月以来的第二次降息，也是自2024年9月以来的第五次 降息，市场立刻有了新的话题和筹码。 美联储这样降息是因为经济数据不算好，增速放缓，就业增长也松了口，通胀还在高位，决策层觉得得放点水以稳住局面，所以在信息并不完全的背景下做 了这步棋，恰好碰上了金价的波动期。 标题写在前头，金价跌了引得买家跑出洞穴，美联储又在2025年10月29日降息，4000美元那道坎还能守住吗，这篇文章把来龙去脉掰给你听清楚，不掺概念 题也不摆大道理，只说发生了啥和谁在动。 金价先是一路往上冲到历史高位，大家都腿软觉得赚到了，然后在10月下旬突然向下回落，许多人在观望里憋不住开始买入，市场上瞬间热闹起来，地方金 ...

10月30日凌晨，美联储的联邦公开市场委员会刚结束两天的会，把联邦基金利率目标区间往下调了25个基点，现在到3.75%到4.00%了。 这已经是他们今年第二次降息，9月刚开了降息的头，这就跟着续上了第二次。 本来市场还等着从鲍威尔嘴里听到点"接下来继续宽松"的准话，结果这位美联储主席一开口就兜头浇了盆冷水。 他在会后声明里明明白白说："12月会议会不会降息，可不是必然的事儿。" 这话一出来，之前笃定12月还能接着降的人，心里立马就没底了。 从2022年启动缩表到现在，美联储的资产负债表规模变化还挺明显。 本来峰值快到9万亿美元了，现在降到了大概7.2万亿美元，算下来缩了有1.8万亿美元。 这三年缩表就是在"收回之前放出去的水"，现在突然停了，其实是给市场松口气，银行间的流动性能缓一缓，短期借钱的成本也不容易忽上忽下了。 缩表会不会一直搞下去，后来发现鲍威尔早在10月14号就透过风，说缩表可能快结束了，当时他就提了句"有些迹象显示流动性越来越紧"，现在看来那时候 就有谱了。 不过这次降息最让人意外的，是美联储内部居然吵起来了。 12个投票的委员里，10个人支持降25个基点，这算多数，但剩下俩意见差得老远。 美联 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, closing at approximately $4024.18 per ounce after a sharp recovery from an initial drop to $3915, marking a daily increase of about 2.4%, the largest since the recent peak on October 20 [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.0% has contributed to the renewed interest in gold, as low interest rates and economic uncertainty create a favorable environment for non-yielding assets [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.38% to 99.51, with a peak of 99.72, the highest since August 1, yet this strength did not suppress safe-haven buying in gold, indicating heightened market sensitivity to uncertainty [1] Trade Developments - President Trump announced a reduction of tariffs on China from 57% to 47% in exchange for increased purchases of U.S. soybeans and enhanced cooperation on rare earth exports, which briefly boosted the stock market before a quick retreat [2] - The overall sentiment remains cautious as the trade agreement appears to be more of a temporary truce rather than a comprehensive resolution, contributing to mixed market reactions [2] Market Sentiment - The combination of the Fed's rate cut, uncertainty surrounding the December meeting, and the lack of substantial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has created a complex environment that favors gold while pressuring stock markets [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.99%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.57%, reflecting the negative impact of these factors on equity markets [1] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are facing potential short-term pullback risks, with the $3900 level being a critical support point that traders should monitor [4] - The price action has shown a struggle to maintain levels above $4030, indicating a possible consolidation phase around $4010, with traders advised to watch for resistance near $4020/4045 and support at $3985/3920 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillatory phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. Under the background of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. - For bonds, the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - The precious metals (gold and silver) are under short - term pressure due to the hawkish remarks of Fed Chairman Powell, but factors such as the decline in market risk appetite and the ongoing US government shutdown still support their prices, and they are expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, and tin are all expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors such as macro - environment, production, and supply - demand conditions [1]. - For black metals, the prices of steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coil) and related products (such as iron ore, glass, and soda ash) also show oscillatory trends, affected by factors like production, inventory, and macro - sentiment [1]. - For agricultural products, the prices of palm oil, soybean, cotton, sugar, and other products have different trends, influenced by factors such as production, demand, and seasonal factors [1]. - For energy and chemical products, various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, rubber, and chemical fibers have different price trends, affected by factors such as OPEC+ production policy, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand relationship [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term oscillatory, with support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Short - term oscillatory, pressured by hawkish Fed remarks but supported by other factors [1]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Price回调, but limited downward space [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillatory due to limited industrial drivers and digested macro - benefits [1]. - **Alumina**: Fundamentally weak, with increasing production and inventory, and the cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term high - level oscillatory, affected by macro - sentiment and market conditions [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated oscillatory, with high - inventory pressure, and long - term surplus pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillatory, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Medium - and long - term, attention should be paid to buying on dips opportunities [1]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Concerned about upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Concerned about upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month with upward opportunities, but overall pressured by supply and inventory [1]. - **Glass**: Price downward space is limited in the short - term, and price fluctuations are strengthened [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Bullish, but the breakthrough is uncertain [1]. - **Coke**: Industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the disk rises [1]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Currently pressured by high inventory, waiting for the production - reduction and inventory - removal cycle [1]. - **Soybean**: Domestic soybean has low valuation, and the disk is expected to rebound to repair the crushing margin, but the rebound height is limited [1]. - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton demand has great uncertainty, and the disk is under pressure but with limited downward space [1]. - **Sugar**: Seasonally strong in the short - term, but limited rebound space after the new sugar is on the market [1]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ may maintain a small increase in production in November, and the short - term geopolitical speculation cools down [1]. - **Rubber (Natural and Synthetic)**: Different trends, affected by factors such as cost, supply, and market atmosphere [1]. - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA price is affected by "anti - involution" policy and device conditions, and short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by factors such as crude oil and coal prices, and polyester demand [1]. - **Benzene and Related Products**: Affected by factors such as benzene price, device operation, and profit [1]. - **Plastics (PE, PP, PVC)**: Different trends, affected by factors such as maintenance, supply, and demand [1]. - **Caustic Soda and LPG**: Affected by factors such as production plans, inventory, and international market conditions [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - With the gradual alleviation of unfavorable factors from trade frictions, stock indices may return to an upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited due to policy support and abundant macro - liquidity. It is advisable to go long on stock indices when opportunities arise [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - The initial consensus between China and the US has improved market risk appetite, suppressing precious - metal prices. However, the upcoming Fed rate cut and the ongoing US government shutdown will still support the gold price. Short - term gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The significant decline in the London lease rate has led to the shock adjustment of silver [1] - The recent improvement in macro sentiment and the limited industrial - side drive have led to the slightly stronger and volatile operation of aluminum prices [1] - In the context of continued production profits, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing. The weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price, and recent attention should be paid to cost support [1] - The recent strengthening of the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread has increased the risk of a short squeeze, strengthening the expectation of zinc exports and driving up the domestic zinc price. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain high - level volatility [1] - The alleviation of Sino - US trade frictions has lifted market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Sino - US high - level meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The Fed rate cut will boost the non - ferrous sector. The implementation of Indonesia's RKAB new policy requires attention to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter, and be vigilant against mine - end disturbances [1] - The alleviation of Sino - US trade frictions has increased market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Sino - US high - level meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The stainless - steel futures are expected to rebound in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies in the medium and long term [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment and the rebound of the semiconductor sector have led to the short - term strong and volatile operation of tin prices under the influence of macro sentiment. Medium - and long - term, opportunities to go long on dips are recommended [1] - The Southwest's industrial - silicon production is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. Polysilicon production is expected to decline in November, and the market sentiment has faded due to the long - term non - implementation of the anti - involution policy [1] - The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. Although the supply - side production schedule has increased, the overall demand is large [1] - The industrial drive of rebar and hot - rolled coils is unclear, and their futures valuations are low. Directional trading is not recommended [1] - Near - month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1] - The direct demand for ferromanganese - silicon is good, but the supply is high, and the inventory is at a high level, so the price is under pressure and fluctuating [1] - The supply and demand of glass are supported, and short - term sentiment is dominant. The price decline is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening [1] - Following glass, the supply of soda - ash is in excess, and the price is under pressure [1] - Supported by supply - side positive news and strong fundamentals, coking coal is challenging the previous high of the "anti - involution" trade, but the inconsistency of supply and demand among black - sector varieties may not have changed, and there are signs of stagflation in thermal coal in recent days. Whether coking - coal futures can break through successfully is highly uncertain, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Similar to coking coal, the coke futures are at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling some spot on rallies [1] - Indonesia's expected implementation of B50 next year provides support. Currently, the high inventory in Malaysia in September and the expected inventory accumulation in October are pressuring the palm - oil futures. It is advisable to wait and see for the production - area's production cut and inventory reduction cycle [1] - With the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting, the negotiation result may bring new guidance. Currently, with the expected reduction of raw - material supply in the fourth quarter and the oil mills' expected reduction of operating rates to support prices, the expected inventory reduction of soybean oil supports the futures. With multiple factors intertwined and a lack of new drivers, it is advisable to wait and see [1] - The expected improvement in Sino - Canadian relations is pressuring the rapeseed - oil futures. Domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed - oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading [1] - The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton - spinning capacity and the reduction of spinning profits have led to great uncertainty in the new - year's cotton demand. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downside space is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure due to the record - high production [1] - Typhoons around the National Day have had an adverse impact on sugar - cane harvesting and production in South China. There is seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the expected supply increase after the new - sugar listing will limit the rebound space [1] - The corn inventory in the north and south ports is low, and the short - term supply from production areas has decreased, so the price in the north port is firm. The futures and spot prices are expected to face selling pressure later, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out, but the expected high enthusiasm of traders to build inventories will limit the downside space [1] - Under the expectation of Sino - US negotiations, the US futures market has risen strongly. With high policy uncertainty, domestic short - selling funds have reduced positions to avoid risks. The domestic purchase - ship profit is still poor, and the domestic futures valuation is low. The futures price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policies and South American weather [1] - The trading logic of pulp is related to the old - warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under pressure, and a November - January reverse spread is recommended [1] - The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - The live - hog spot price has stabilized recently due to secondary fattening and increased slaughter volume with the cooling weather. Although the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, changes in the slaughter volume and weight need to be awaited, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1] - OPEC+ may continue to maintain a small - scale production increase in November, short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China has softened [1] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent and follows crude oil. The expected "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient [1] - The raw - material cost of natural rubber provides strong support, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1] - The decline in crude oil prices has weakened the cost support of butadiene for synthetic rubber. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, and the high - level production and inventory have not been the main constraints, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1] - The news of the PTA industry's planned "anti - involution" policy has pushed up the PTA price. Overseas device failures and the decline in the operating rate of some domestic reforming devices, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene - glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and there has been no significant decline in domestic demand [1] - The news of the PTA industry's planned "anti - involution" policy has pushed up the PTA price, and the basis of short - fiber has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1] - The Asian benzene price remains weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming devices have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US remains closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the styrene device maintenance has gradually increased, and the crude - oil price has continued to decline [1] - The export sentiment of urea has eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, so the upside space is limited, but there is support from the anti - involution policy and the cost side [1] - The center of the crude - oil market price has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand has slowly increased, and the PE price is fluctuating slightly stronger [1] - The maintenance support for PP is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price is returning to fundamentals and fluctuating weakly [1] - The PVC futures price is returning to fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the futures price is fluctuating weakly [1] - There are many planned alumina projects in Guangxi, the subsequent maintenance concentration will decline, and the warehouse - receipt digestion is difficult, with the high - concentration caustic - soda price in an inverted state [1] - The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices are weakening, the PG futures price has repaired its valuation, but the C3/C4 spot prices are still under pressure, and the domestic fundamentals are continuously loose [1] - The container - shipping European line is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm. The freight rate is approaching the full - cost line, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Indices - With the alleviation of trade - friction factors and policy support, stock indices may rise, and it is advisable to go long on dips [1] Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Precious Metals - Gold is affected by both market - sentiment suppression and fundamental support, and short - term gold prices are expected to fluctuate. Silver is adjusting due to the decline in the London lease rate [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to remain strong, aluminum prices are fluctuating slightly stronger, alumina fundamentals are weak, zinc prices are expected to remain high and volatile, and nickel prices are affected by supply and macro factors. The industry is also affected by Sino - US relations and Indonesian policies [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils lack clear industrial drive, iron - ore near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, ferromanganese - silicon is under supply - side pressure, glass is supported by supply and demand, soda - ash follows glass, coking coal and coke face uncertainties in supply - demand consistency [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by international policies, inventory, and Sino - foreign relations. Cotton demand is uncertain, sugar has short - term seasonal support, and corn prices are affected by inventory and supply - demand expectations [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, PTA, ethylene - glycol, short - fiber, benzene, urea, PE, PP, PVC, alumina, and SLPG are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and raw - material prices [1] Others - Container - shipping European - line freight rates are expected to stop falling and stabilize, pulp trading is related to old warehouse receipts, logs' spot price is firm, live - hog prices are expected to fluctuate, and the market sentiment of various commodities is affected by Sino - US relations and international policies [1]

当地时间10月29日，美联储宣布降息25个基点。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔当日在新闻发布会上表示， 美联储将继续根据最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡来确定适当的货币政策立场。针对12月 的政策走向，本次委员会会议的讨论中存在着截然不同的看法。12月是否进一步降息远未成定局。 鲍威尔指出，美国政府"停摆"将"对经济活动造成影响"。此外，鲍威尔提到，很大一部分美国消费者仍 然对通货膨胀"感到非常不满"。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会发表声明说，现有指标显示，经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张，今 年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鉴于风险平衡 变化，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 当前，美国联邦政府持续"停摆"导致多项官方经济数据发布推迟。美联储主席鲍威尔此前曾表示，美联 储有自己的联系人和数据来源，以监测美国经济健康状况。 美联储再度降息25个基点 美国联邦储备委员会29日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是 ...

10 月议息：降息外的宽松信号 2025 年 10 月 29 日 [Table_Author] ➢ 通胀数据回落为 10 月降息铺平道路，但降息之外的政策宽松信号更值得关 注——政府停摆引发的经济扰动以及缩表终止时点的临近，正成为本次会议的关 键观察点。一方面，10 月以来持续的政府关门放大了短期就业市场的扰动和经 济下行压力，可能成为影响鲍威尔判断后续降息节奏的重要考量因素；另一方面， 美国流动性压力加速累积，美联储或借本次会议释放暂停缩表的信号，为市场注 入流动性支撑。"降息+暂停缩表"的双向宽松可能成为推动短期流动性拐点的关 键因素，对资产端形成利好支撑。 ➢ 具体来看， 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：shaoxiang@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn ➢ 通胀的不及预期使得美联储 10 月降息几乎"板上钉钉"。9 月以来就业市场 风险进一步加剧，虽然缺少官方数据支撑，但 ADP 等 ...

黄金方面：最近一段时间在全球最大的两个经济体贸易前景明显改善的情况下，避险情绪在一定程度上 有所降温，导致黄金价格有所回落。 不过当下，美国参议院第13次否决临时拨款法案，美国特朗普政府依旧处于停摆当中，后续仍然存在较 大的不确定性。另一方面，以色列方面表示，哈马斯违反停火协议，下令空袭加沙，哈马斯否认违反协 议并且在空袭后推迟移交人质，地缘摩擦的不确定性仍将为金价提供支撑。 特朗普再度炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔不是无能就是坏，表示其将在几个月离职，暗示特朗普仍然在给美联 储压力，试图令后者降息。 来源：智昇财论 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储10月降息25个基点的概率为99.5%，几乎完全定价今晚降息；同 时美联储12月累计降息50个基点的概率为91.6%，暗示今年美联储还将降息两次。 技术面：日线上，近期行情整体维持高位震荡，短期有望延续调整行情。指标上看，行情处于62日均线 上方运行，暗示美元指数短期维持坚挺的概率比较大。日内关注下方98.73一线支撑情况。 纳指方面：日线上，近期行情表现非常强势，连续多个交易日上行且收阳线，短期有望延续强势行情。 指标上看，20日和62日均线呈现多头排列，多头仍然占 ...