智通财经APP获悉，由于加息预期升温以及对财政状况的担忧，日本国债收益率近期持续走高。日本10年期国债收益率在12月8日一度飙升 至1.97%，创下自2007年以6月来的最高水平;对政策敏感的日本2年期国债收益率则在12月10日一度飙升至1.075%，创下2007年7月以来的最 高水平。截至发稿，日本10年期国债收益率报1.928%，日本2年期国债收益率报1.057%。 日本央行本月加息已基本就绪。一系列最新的经济数据、薪资增长有望再次稳健增长以及要求日本央行维持低利率的政治压力有所减弱为日 本央行的加息前景提供了支撑。 上周有报道指出，知情人士透露，日本央行已准备在本月晚些时候的政策会议上加息25个基点，将基准利率上调25个基点至0.75%——这将 是1995年以来的最高政策利率水平，前提是在此期间经济或金融市场没有发生重大冲击。知情人士称，日本央行还将表示，如果其经济展望 得以实现，将继续加息，同时对最终会将利率推高到什么程度保持谨慎。 值得一提的是，以倡导货币宽松著称的日本首相高市早苗近期对日元的过度疲软提出了警告。日本反对党加大了攻击力度，称高市早苗所 谓"负责任积极主动的财政政策"是长期利率上升和日 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - International silver prices have surpassed $60 per ounce, reaching a historical high, driven by increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this week [1][3] - Silver futures for March delivery closed at $60.84 per ounce, with prices continuing to rise in Asian trading, hovering around $61.2 per ounce [1] - Year-to-date, silver spot prices have increased by over 110% [1] Group 2: Gold Market Overview - COMEX gold futures for February delivery saw a slight increase, closing at $4,236.2 per ounce, with a year-to-date rise of approximately 60% [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Rate Expectations - A recent CNBC survey indicates that 87% of respondents expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, with a median forecast suggesting two dissenting votes among Fed officials [5] - If the Fed proceeds with a 25 basis point cut this week, it would mark a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year, contributing to a cumulative decrease of 175 basis points over the past two years [7][9] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Labor Market - Analysts suggest that the significant reduction of 175 basis points indicates a shift from a tight monetary policy to a more neutral stance, which may influence future rate paths [9] - There are differing opinions on whether the Fed will initiate a deeper easing cycle than currently anticipated, with some analysts highlighting the labor market as a key focus for the Fed [13][15]

Group 1: Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is gradually approaching its inflation target and suggests that interest rate hikes will not be limited to just one instance, signaling a potential policy shift later this month [1][6] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stated that the central bank will continue to slowly adjust monetary easing until a sustained 2% inflation target is achieved and policy rates return to natural levels [1][6] - Ueda's comments imply that even if the central bank raises rates this month, the normalization process of monetary policy will continue [1][6] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicated that there is "ample room" for further rate cuts, but rising inflation could change this outlook [2][7] - Hassett mentioned that if data supports it, he believes there is enough space for significant rate cuts, potentially exceeding 25 basis points [2][7] - He cautioned that if inflation rises from 2.5% to 4%, rate cuts would not be appropriate [2][7] Group 3: Market Reactions and Currency Movements - Gold prices experienced slight gains, trading around 4205, supported by short covering and ongoing expectations of Fed rate cuts, although hawkish signals from the Fed limited upward movement [3][8] - The Australian dollar rose to a 12-week high at approximately 0.6630, driven by Fed rate cut expectations and hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia [4][9] - The USD/JPY pair reached a 10-day high at around 156.60, supported by expectations of a hawkish Fed, although Ueda's comments on potential rate hikes limited further gains [5][10]

日本银行总裁植田和男在众议院预算委员会上答辩（12月9日） 日银总裁植田和男9日表示："将从促进市场形成稳定利率的角度出发，灵活实施增加国债购买额等操 作"，欧美市场参与者认为"这与货币政策正常化背道而驰"，作出了抛售日元的反应…… 市场上认为"日本政府最终可能被迫进行实质性日元买入干预"的声音越来越多。新加坡星展集团控股公 司（DBS GroupHoldings）本周发布的最新汇率展望报告指出，虽然预计美国持续降息会导致美元走 弱，但"仅就美元兑日元汇率而言，美国的货币宽松政策是美元走弱的必要条件，却并非充分条件"。报 告总结称："如果日本的财政风险等因素未能阻碍日本央行的政策正常化，日本国债收益率未能实现有 序上行，则日元会下跌，最终极有可能引发日元买入干预"。 如果日元贬值态势加剧，日元兑欧元及澳元的下跌行情也将扩大到日元兑美元汇率，从而抵消"美元走 弱"的效果。9日，日元兑欧元汇率一度跌至1欧元兑182.5~182.9日元区间，刷新历史最低值，日元兑澳 元汇率也一度触及1澳元兑104.0~104.5日元区间，创下今年新低。日银总裁植田和男关于增加国债操作 的言论给外汇市场带来了巨大影响。 日经QUIC ...

日本央行行长植田和男表示，央行正逐步接近实现通胀目标，并暗示加息步伐不会仅限于一次，这为本月晚些时候可能实施的政策转向释放了明 确信号。 植田和男在周二接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，"我们正接近持续性的2%通胀"。他同时指出，央行将持续缓慢调整货币宽松程度，直至实现 持续性2%通胀目标，且政策利率回到自然利率水平。 此番表态推高了市场对12月19日政策会议加息的预期。据华尔街见闻此前文章，植田和男9日在国会答询时表示，"如果经济前景实现，将进行加 息"，但"不对利率具体细节发表评论"。基于隔夜掉期交易，投资者目前预计加息25基点的概率约为88%。若央行将利率上调至0.75%，这将是日 本自1995年以来的最高借贷成本水平。 植田和男的讲话令日元短暂走强，兑美元汇率一度升破156关口，随后有所回落。 | 概览 | 图表 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 m | 5m | 15m | | 30m | 1H | 4H ...

而从实际情况来看，日本央行的货币政策路径暂时并未受到高市早苗政府经济政策的影响。今年以来， 一直在加息问题上保持谨慎态度的日本央行，从10月开始就已逐步显露出更加"鹰"派的姿态。 当地时间12月8日，日本内阁府最新发布的数据显示，今年第三季度日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）按 年率计算萎缩2.3%，降幅超过预测的2%的水平，同时相较于初步统计结果进一步下滑。在11月发布的 初步统计报告中，日本第三季度实际GDP按年率计算下降1.8%。 具体而言，日本第三季度实际GDP降幅扩大，主要是受到美国关税政策不确定性风险下企业设备投资下 降的影响。在初步统计中，企业设备投资环比增长1%。而在修正值中，企业设备投资由涨转跌，环比 下降0.2%。此外，公共投资也由涨转跌，从初步统计的环比增长0.1%下调至下降1.1%。 日本第三季度经济萎缩幅度超预期，这或将在一定程度上给高市早苗政府的大规模经济刺激计划提供了 支撑。11月21日，日本政府正式在内阁会议上批准了一项规模达21.3万亿日元的经济刺激方案。该方案 包括17.7万亿日元的一般账户支出、2.7万亿日元的减税措施以及9000亿日元的专项账户支出。 值得注意的是，尽管日本 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】公开数据显示，针对日本国债的抛售正在持续加速。东京债券市场上，日本新 发10年期国债收益率上升至1.970%，为2007年6月以来高水平；20年期国债收益率升至2.95%，创历史 新高。 时事通信社发文称，由于预计日本银行（BOJ）下周将加息，国债承受压力。日本银行行长上田康夫 （Kazuo Ueda）则在12月1日表示，12月18日至19日的会议中，他们将权衡提高政策利率的利弊，并作 出适当的决定。 华泰证券近日发布研报认为，日本在通胀高企、即将推出新一轮财政刺激的背景下，如果日央行继续推 后加息，通胀和利率"失锚"的风险更大。目前，鉴于日央真实利率转负已达4年、日本央行货币政策公 信力大幅下降，长期国债利率波动均在所难免，利率易涨难跌，而利率波动可能殃及汇率和权益资产定 价。 研报还提到，如果日央行更快地推进货币政策正常化，将有助提高日本宏观政策的公信力，稳定通胀预 期，降低长端国债所隐含的风险溢价，反而有助于部分对冲财政刺激所带来的收益率上行压力。 ...

（来源：领盛Optivest） 基本面总结： 1．日本央行预计对未来加息采取"建设性模糊"策略 日本央行预计将在未来加息路径上采取"建设性模糊"策略。报道称，行长植田和男近期就中性利率估计发出了较以往更清晰的指引信号。目前，日本央行 评估名义中性利率位于1%至2.5%的区间。鉴于市场已几乎完全定价日本央行将在12月将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，部分市场参与者据此推测，日本 央行可能会上调中性利率估计，以释放未来仍有继续加息空间的信号。 尽管市场产生此类预期，多名前日本央行官员认为，央行不太可能公布明确的中性利率数字。前日本央行首席经济学家龟田诚策表示，在高度不确定性 下，央行更倾向于通过"建设性模糊"方式保留政策灵活性，而非给出可能束缚自身的具体数字。他预计植田和男最多会指示中性利率在宽幅区间内的大致 位置。 前日本央行官员、现任摩根大通日本首席经济学家藤田彩子预计，日本央行将强调1%仅为预估区间的下限，并暗示实际中性利率可能更高。但她同时指 出，央行仍会表示无法确知中性利率的真实水平，并可能希望市场将其定价在1.5%左右，从而实现预期管理。 报道称，在主要央行中，日本央行并非唯一对披露中性利率细节保 ...

据知情人士透露，日本央行已准备在本月晚些时候的政策会议上加息，前提是在此期间经济或金融市场没有发生重大冲击。知情人士称，日本央行还将表 示，如果其经济展望得以实现，将继续加息，同时对最终会将利率推高到什么程度保持谨慎。受此消息提振，日元走强。截至发稿，日元兑美元汇率涨 0.36%，至1美元兑154.58日元。 知情人士补充称，日本央行在做出最终政策决定前，将继续仔细筛选最新数据和信息，直到最后一刻。美联储将于下周公布的利率决议以及关于美国利率前 景的任何信号都可能影响市场及日元。 知情人士表示，日本央行官员们认为，在本月政策会议上将基准利率上调25个基点至0.75%的可能性很高。若日本央行届时如期加息，将使日本的政策利率 升至1995年以来的最高水平。隔夜互换指数显示，交易员认为日币央行本月加息的可能性约为90%。而在一周前，这一概率还不到60%。 与此同时，市场的关注点在于，日本央行将如何积极地暗示进一步加息。知情人士表示，随着美国关税影响更加明朗，以及企业利润持续高企为企业提供了 提高工资的余地，日本央行官员们评估认为，他们的经济展望实现的可能性有所增加。知情人士称，日本央行可能会暗示需要审查经济对每次加 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.12%, S&P futures by 0.09%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.03% [1] - Major European stock indices are also up, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index increasing by 0.45%, FTSE 100 by 0.11%, CAC 40 by 0.43%, and DAX 30 by 0.78% [1] - WTI crude oil is up by 0.56%, priced at $59.28 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up by 0.48%, priced at $62.97 per barrel [1] Economic News - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, but there is significant disagreement among analysts regarding the timeline for future rate cuts, particularly into 2026 [1] - The House Speaker Johnson has reversed his stance on a stock trading ban for lawmakers, citing concerns that it could hinder election campaigns [1] - Fitch Ratings indicates that the Japanese yen has potential for appreciation as the Bank of Japan continues to normalize its monetary policy [1] - The UK energy regulator plans to allocate £28 billion for investments in the stability, security, and resilience of energy networks [1] - The EU has announced a complete ban on imports of Russian natural gas by autumn 2027, although Hungary has expressed refusal to comply [1] - The Bank of Japan is assessing the neutral interest rate level, with the governor stating that policy rates will remain accommodative [1] Company News - Anthropic has announced its first public acquisition, purchasing the JavaScript runtime project Bun and its team, which will continue to develop and maintain Bun as an open-source project [1] - Meta may face an antitrust investigation from the EU due to its use of artificial intelligence in WhatsApp [1] - Apple's design chief Alan Dye has left for Meta, continuing a trend of executive departures from Apple [1] - TikTok is investing $37.7 billion to establish its first large data center in Brazil [1] - OpenAI founder Altman plans to establish a rocket company to compete with Elon Musk's SpaceX [1] - Micron Technology has announced its exit from the consumer memory business to focus on AI chip production [1] Economic Data - The number of layoffs reported by US Challenger companies in November was 71,321, down from 153,074 in the previous month [1] - Japan's auction of 30-year government bonds saw a subscription rate of 4.04, the highest since 2019 [1]