今日周五(8月22日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9229一线下方，今日开盘于9187元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂报 9209元/千克，上涨0.55%，最高触及9254元/千克，最低下探9187元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走 势。 美联储正站在一个关键的十字路口。一方面，劳动力市场放缓的迹象和特朗普的降息压力要求货币政策更宽松；另一 方面，通胀率仍高于目标，且服务业通胀的上升为降息敲响了警钟。博斯蒂克、施密德、古尔斯比和柯林斯的不同表 态反映了美联储内部对经济前景的分歧：是优先抗击通胀，还是适度宽松以支持经济增长？这一问题不仅关乎美国经 济，也将对全球市场产生深远影响。 杰克逊霍尔研讨会为美联储提供了一个重要舞台，鲍威尔的讲话可能为市场提供方向感。然而，无论美联储最终选择 何种路径，政策的连续性和稳定性都将是关键。正如博斯蒂克所言，反复无常的政策可能动摇公众对美联储的信心， 而施密德和古尔斯比的谨慎态度则提醒我们，通胀的"最后一公里"往往最为艰难。柯林斯的开放态度则为市场保留了 一线希望，降息的可能性并未完全消失。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银周四走出上涨空间，当前收高至9270，趋势力度 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar is strengthening, with expectations for a strong weekly performance ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which may influence recent monetary policy direction [1] - Following a surprisingly weak July employment report and significant downward revisions to May and June hiring data, market participants have reassessed their expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 75% probability now estimated for a 25 basis point cut in September, down from 92% a week prior [1] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed a cautious stance regarding the likelihood of a rate cut next month, which sets the stage for Powell's upcoming remarks at the Jackson Hole conference [1] Group 2 - The euro has reached its lowest level since August 6, trading at 1.1583 USD, down 0.8% for the week, although it remains up 12% year-to-date [2] - The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six currencies, is reported at 98.75, up 0.9% for the week, ending a two-week decline [2] - The Japanese yen has fallen to 148.63 against the dollar, with expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October due to core inflation remaining above the 2% target [2]

今日周五（8月22日)亚盘时，黄金价格在3334美元附近徘徊，维持上一交易日的跌势，因俄乌和谈的前 景冲淡了市场的避险情绪。然而，双方在"合法性"和"关键问题"上存在巨大分歧，和谈之路必定漫长且 反复。任何谈判遇阻的消息都可能随时再次点燃避险情绪，为金价提供支撑。鲍威尔潜在继任者布拉德 呼吁今年降息100个基点，并在2026年进一步降息。 【要闻速递】 在美联储的政策动态备受关注之际，其潜在继任者布拉德积极发声，主张今年实施100个基点的降息举 措，且计划于2026年继续推进进一步降息。 摘要今日周五（8月22日)亚盘时，黄金价格在3334美元附近徘徊，维持上一交易日的跌势，因俄乌和谈 的前景冲淡了市场的避险情绪。然而，双方在"合法性"和"关键问题"上存在巨大分歧，和谈之路必定漫 长且反复。任何谈判遇阻的消息都可能随时再次点燃避险情绪，为金价提供支撑。 周三披露的美联储7月会议纪要表明，政策制定者们对当前的劳动力市场及通胀状况表达了深切担忧。 不过，多数官员认为当下并非降息的合适时机。 该会议纪要还深刻揭示了美联储内部成员之间存在的显著分歧。其中，潜在继任者布拉德坚定呼吁今年 降息100个基点，并规划在202 ...

委员会表示，在本月稍早决定降息时"考虑到了汇率波动、经济活动的疲软以及全球贸易政策变化可能 带来的影响"。 周五（8月22日）亚洲时段，美元兑墨西哥比索震荡走跌，截至发稿前美元兑墨西哥比索汇率报 18.7497，跌幅0.02，墨西哥央行周四公布的会议记录显示，该央行表示将考虑进一步下调指标利率，大 多数成员认为，经济低迷和劳动力市场降温表明通胀将继续降温。 央行在决策会议记录报告中说，"未来管理委员会将考虑进一步下调指标利率，"会议记录表明了墨西哥 央行8月7日决定将利率下调25个基点至2022年中期以来低点7.75%的理由。 大多数管理委员会成员表示，他们预计通胀率将继续下降，并提到劳动力市场疲软以及墨西哥比索相对 于2024年下半年更加坚挺的表现。 墨西哥央行正面临着双重挑战，既要设法抑制通胀，又要通过降息来刺激经济增长。墨西哥总统希恩鲍 姆（Claudia Sheinbaum）表示支持央行的降息措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is stabilizing at a high level, currently reported at 98.67, with a slight increase of 0.01%. However, there are indications that the dollar may weaken further as the Federal Reserve appears ready to restart interest rate cuts despite persistent inflation [1]. Group 1 - Recent rebound in the dollar is attributed to accelerated business activity and a significant increase in manufacturing orders, which reached an 18-month high, offsetting some weak employment data and reinforcing the dollar's safe-haven status [1]. - Concerns over disappointing July non-farm payroll data and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to market expectations for quicker and larger rate cuts, creating fertile ground for dollar depreciation amid rising inflation [1]. Group 2 - Technically, the dollar index faced resistance below 98.70 and found support above 98.15, suggesting a potential for an upward trend after a short-term decline. If the index stabilizes above 98.30 today, the upward target could be between 98.80 and 99.00 [1]. - Short-term resistance levels for the dollar index are identified at 98.75-98.80, with significant resistance at 98.95-99.00. Conversely, short-term support is noted at 98.30-98.35, with important support at 98.00-98.05 [1].

Group 1 - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is highly anticipated, as it will directly influence the short-term fate of small-cap stocks [1][3] - If Powell signals a dovish stance and hints at a rate cut in September, small-cap stocks may experience a significant rebound; conversely, a cautious or hawkish tone could lead to selling pressure [3][4] - Approximately 60% of companies in the Russell 2000 index face debt maturities within the next two years, with an average financing cost 320 basis points higher than the five-year Treasury yield [3] Group 2 - The current market is grappling with the state of the U.S. economy, as July non-farm payrolls showed only 114,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 175,000, while the ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 46.8 [4] - The Russell 2000 index has rebounded 12% since its July low, outperforming the S&P 500's 8% increase, with the highest-weighted sectors being financials (17%), industrials (15%), and healthcare (14%) [4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the U.S. economy enters a mild recession in 2025, small-cap earnings could contract by 15%-20%, compared to 8%-10% for large companies [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is currently balancing inflation control with economic growth, as the core PCE price index year-over-year increase remains at 2.7%, still above the 2% target [5] - Regardless of whether Powell hints at a rate cut, the volatility of the Russell 2000 index is expected to remain high until a true turning point in interest rates is reached [5]

今日周五(8月22日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9229一线上方，今日开盘于9187元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂报 9246元/千克，上涨0.95%，最高触及9254元/千克，最低下探9187元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走 势。 【要闻速递】 周四，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，仍预计今年仅降息一次，但承认经济不确定性大，政策需单向推进以维持公 信力。他指出当前利率"略微限制性"，经济增长相对温和，但明年可能反弹。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则强调无急于降息必要，通胀更接近3%而非2%，需警惕降息对通胀预期的负面影响。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比对降息持谨慎态度，担心服务业通胀上升并非关税所致，而波士顿联储主席柯林斯则暗示对9 月降息持开放态度，预计通胀年底前继续上升后在2026年回落。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也认为现在不是降息时机，通胀问题持续。 这些观点的碰撞反映出美联储面临的困境：劳动力市场放缓vs.通胀压力上升，加上特朗普政府的关税政策和对美联储 的压力（如调查理事库克），让政策路径更难预测。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银周四走出上涨空间，当前收高至9270，趋势力度明显，周五可以继续持 ...

Group 1 - Growth stocks in the US have experienced a sell-off, indicating market tension ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole [1] - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that small-cap stocks may see significant volatility following Powell's comments on monetary policy, with the Russell 2000 index being a key focus [1] - A dovish speech from Powell could trigger a rebound in small-cap stocks, while a more hawkish stance may lead to short-term declines as the market adjusts its rate cut pricing [1] Group 2 - There is uncertainty regarding whether the US economy is heading towards a recession, with differing opinions from economic experts [2] - Small-cap stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates and refinancing risks, and their performance may be positively impacted by rate cuts if macroeconomic data remains stable [2] - The fate of small-cap companies largely depends on Powell's upcoming speech, highlighting the importance of his comments for market sentiment [2]

Hot News - From January to July, the cumulative total electricity consumption of the whole society was 5,863.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. Among them, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5,470.3 billion kWh [1] - On August 18, 2025, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Xie Feng met with Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations. They exchanged views on China-US relations and economic and trade cooperation. Ambassador Xie introduced China's efforts to build a new development pattern and promote high-level opening-up and stated China's principles and positions on developing China-US relations [1] - Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a top candidate for the next Fed chair, called for a 100-basis-point interest rate cut this year and further cuts in 2026. He believes the current interest rate is a bit high and that a cut of about 100 basis points by 2026 could start at the September meeting, with further actions possible this year [1][4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week recorded the largest increase in nearly three months, indicating an increase in layoffs and further signs of a weakening labor market. For the week ending August 16, the seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the largest increase since the end of May [2] Key Concerns - The night - time trading performance focuses on coking coal, styrene, caustic soda, corn, and urea [3] - In terms of sector performance, non-metallic building materials rose 2.84%, precious metals 26.16%, oilseeds 12.70%, non - ferrous metals 21.82%, soft commodities 2.62%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 14.41%, energy 3.29%, chemicals 11.83%, grains 1.26%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.07% [3] Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, steel and minerals, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind comprehensive commodities, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.13 | 5.54 | 12.51 | | | SSE 50 | 0.53 | 3.10 | 6.61 | | | CSI 300 | 0.39 | 5.21 | 8.98 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.36 | 7.67 | 17.09 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.40 | 0.49 | 8.31 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.24 | 1.34 | 25.15 | | | German DAX | 0.07 | 0.95 | 22.02 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.65 | 3.75 | 6.81 | | | UK FTSE 100 | 0.23 | 1.93 | 13.90 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.06 | - 0.45 | - 0.85 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.06 | - 0.26 | - 1.02 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.00 | - 0.03 | - 0.63 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | - 1.26 | - 0.24 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.26 | - 8.26 | - 11.71 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.25 | 1.50 | 27.24 | | | LME Copper | 0.04 | 1.22 | 10.74 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.93 | - 2.27 | 12.99 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.42 | - 1.40 | - 9.06 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 6.16 | - 9.57 | [6] Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premiums of stock indices [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral due to carbon - neutral policies controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market, along with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral state with a spot price of 20690 and a basis of 100, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons, also neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving downwards, a neutral signal. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a slightly bullish tendency. In the long run, carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real - estate market remains weak, and short - term macro sentiment is volatile; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 20690, basis is 100, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons; neutral [2]. - Disk: Closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving downwards; neutral [2]. - Main Positions: Main net long positions, long positions decreasing; slightly bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices in the long run, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, and the aluminum price will oscillate [2]. b. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. c. Daily Summary - Spot Prices: Shanghai's yesterday's spot price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70690, down 450; today's Yangtze River's was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 699 to 70798 tons; LME inventory decreased by 425 to 74750 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 to 136300 tons [4]. d. Supply - Demand Balance | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.61 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.31 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [22]