Core Viewpoint - The President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bostic, indicates that there is room and time to observe how tariff policies evolve, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - A single interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected by the end of 2025 [1] - Inflation remains a risk factor that could influence future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official BOSTIC stated there is no urgency to cut interest rates and expects prices to rise, indicating there is room and time to observe how tariff policies evolve [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - BOSTIC's comments suggest a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts, reflecting confidence in potential price increases in the economy [1] Tariff Policy - The statement highlights the importance of monitoring the evolution of tariff policies, which may impact economic conditions and inflation [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：目前没有必要降息，预计今年晚些时候将有一次幅度25个基点的降息。 ...

金十数据6月24日讯，荷兰国际银行分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中称，如果美联储主席鲍威尔在 今晚22点向国会作证时暗示进一步降息，美元可能进一步下跌。他说，在美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼支持最 早在7月份降息之后，鲍威尔暗示降息的风险有所增加。市场可能会把鲍威尔在降息问题上谨慎态度的 任何变化，视为特朗普要求降息的压力已"突破美联储独立性盾牌"的迹象。这可能会导致美元大幅贬 值。 荷兰国际银行：如果鲍威尔暗示降息，美元可能进一步下跌 ...

隔夜，现货黄金尾盘转跌，最终收跌0.11%，收报于3367.56美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金维持跌势，最高跌近50美元，目前在3321美元附近徘徊。 美联储7月降息？ 隔夜，美股三大股指全线收涨，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别涨0.89%、0.94%、0.96%。 消息面上，美联储官员的最新表态释放重磅信号。 与此同时，特朗普政府也持续向美联储施压。 美东时间6月23日，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，美国总统特朗普和沃勒在推动降息方面是正确的，并补充说，美联储没有理由不降息。 在此之前，特朗普再次敦促美联储降息，基准利率应该至少降低2个百分点。 接下来，投资者们将重点关注鲍威尔的报告证词。 北京时间周二22:00，美联储主席鲍威尔将在众议院金融服务委员会发表半年度货币政策报告证词。 展望未来，所有人的目光都集中在美联储主席鲍威尔周二开始的为期两天的国会证词上，以寻找有关下一次降息时机的新线索。 隔夜，美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼表示，只要通胀压力保持温和，她将支持在7月的下一次政策会议上降息。 鲍曼在布拉格的一次演讲中指出，继另一位美联储官员之后，她也认为特朗普施加的关税可能对价格产 ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管理委员会委员弗朗索瓦·维勒鲁瓦·德加洛在接受专访时重申，欧洲央行 仍保留未来半年内启动降息的政策空间。这位法国央行行长指出，当前市场评估显示通胀预期整体保持 温和态势，若这一趋势得以延续，未来六个货币政策周期内进一步放宽货币条件存在合理预期。 维勒鲁瓦特别强调，近期欧元对主要货币的大幅升值客观上形成了对国际油价上涨的对冲效应。他判断 欧元区经济运行已回归常态化轨道，但明确区分了中性利率与终端利率两个关键概念："虽然两者在特 定条件下可能数值趋同，但从政策逻辑本质而言，中性利率代表既不刺激也不收缩经济的理论平衡点， 而终端利率则是加息周期的最终政策锚点，二者在政策框架中承担不同功能定位。" 谈及外部风险因素，维勒鲁瓦将中东地缘政治局势列为"新的重大不确定性"，认为该地区局势演变存在 双向波动可能。针对能源市场波动，他表示欧洲央行正密切监测国际油价走势，但强调"单纯油价变动 不足以触发政策响应"，只有当能源价格波动通过二次效应传导至核心通胀，并引发通胀预期脱锚风险 时，货币政策调整才会纳入决策考量。 对于欧美贸易关系潜在变化，维勒鲁瓦评估认为，若贸易紧张局势出现实质性升级，将通过抑制 ...

鲍威尔听证会前夕，特朗普再度向鲍威尔施压，呼吁美联储大幅降息！ 周二，特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称： "太晚先生"美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔今天将在国会解释他为什么拒绝降低利率。欧洲已经 降息了10次，而我们为零次。 没有通胀，经济繁荣——我们应该至少降低2到3个百分点。每年将为美国节省8000亿美元。 如果日后形势转差，那就加息。 持续更新中 此前文章提及，周二、周三美联储主席鲍威尔将踏上国会山，直面议员质询。他此行将捍卫一项关键决 策：在贸易摩擦阴云和经济放缓隐忧中，美联储为何坚持按兵不动，暂缓降息步伐？一场围绕货币政策 走向的辩论即将在国会展开。 值得一提的是，美联储内部分歧也在持续加大，继美联储理事沃勒表态支持7月降息后，另一位理事鲍 曼昨晚指出，若通胀压力保持受控，她将支持最早在7月下调利率。 "美联储通讯社"Timiraos指出，鲍曼之前高度关注通胀担忧，她的最新表态是一个有意义的转变。 对于特朗普的施压行为，Nick Timiraos称，特朗普升级了他对美联储的攻击，令美联储在应对关税带来 的物价上涨与经济增长放缓风险时陷入双输的局面。特朗普尖锐的攻击，反映出在未能就经济面临的风 险 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in July if inflation pressures remain moderate, as indicated by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman [3][4] - Bowman's comments align with those of another Fed official, suggesting a shift in focus towards potential labor market weakness [3] - Current data shows that Trump's tariffs have had minimal impact on inflation, allowing for a more favorable environment for a rate cut [3][4] Group 2 - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, with a 23% probability of a rate cut at that meeting and a 78% probability for September [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's potential retaliation against U.S. military facilities, is causing market fluctuations but has not significantly impacted oil prices [6][8] - Despite rising geopolitical risks, analysts believe that the global oil supply remains sufficient, which helps to manage the associated risks [8][9]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for an interest rate cut as early as July, arguing that action should not wait until the job market collapses [2][3] - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some officials emphasizing the need to maintain anti-inflation measures [3][5] - Political pressure is mounting on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with former President Trump criticizing him and suggesting potential changes in leadership [4][5] Group 2 - Economic indicators present a complex situation: core PCE inflation has dropped to a two-year low of 2.1%, but the Fed predicts a rebound to 3.1% by year-end [5] - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, yet there are signs of job reductions and an increase in long-term unemployment claims [5] - Businesses are hesitant to invest due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, leading to a "low hiring, low firing" scenario [5]

General Information - Report Date: June 24, 2025 [2][6][14] - Report Provider: Guotai Junan Futures [2] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has been agreed upon, which will have a significant impact on the prices of commodities such as crude oil and precious metals [7][24][30][32][35][39] - Crude oil prices have dropped significantly due to the geopolitical cooling, and the upward trend may end, but short - term positives may limit the decline speed [8][9] - Different commodities have different trends, such as silver continuing to rise, copper being supported by inventory reduction, etc. [16][25] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Geopolitical cooling led to a sharp drop in prices, with both Brent and WTI falling below $70/barrel, a cumulative decline of over 10% from the previous high [8] - The upward trend may end, and the market may shift from an upward trend to a wide - range shock and then a downward trend. It is recommended to clear long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [8][9] Gold and Silver - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire situation. Gold trend strength is - 1 [16][23] - Silver: Continuing to rise. Silver trend strength is - 1 [16][23] Copper - Inventory reduction supports the price. Copper trend strength is 1 [16][25][27] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: Waiting for direction selection, trend strength is 0 [16][28][30] - Alumina: Range - bound, trend strength is 0 [16][28][30] - Aluminum Alloy: Under pressure, trend strength is 0 [16][28][30] Zinc - Short - term reduction in positions leads to an upward movement, trend strength is 0 [16][31][32] Lead - Medium - term is relatively strong, trend strength is 0 [16][34][35] Tin - Tight current situation but weak expectations, trend strength is 0 [16][37][40] Stainless Steel and Nickel - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weakly marginal, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel trend strength is 0 [16][42][45] - Nickel: The expectation of the distal nickel ore end is loose, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity. Nickel trend strength is 0 [16][42][45] Carbonate Lithium - Weakly oscillating, and the warehouse receipt reduction continues. Carbonate lithium trend strength is 0 [16][46][48] Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon: The idea is mainly to short on rallies. Polysilicon trend strength is - 1 [16][50][52] - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to the changes in warehouse receipts. Industrial silicon trend strength is 0 [16][50][52] Iron Ore - Expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating within a range. Iron ore trend strength is 0 [16][53] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation. Rebar trend strength is 0 [16][55][58] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Wide - range oscillation. Hot - rolled coil trend strength is 0 [16][56][58] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: Plate sentiment resonance, wide - range oscillation. Ferrosilicon trend strength is 0 [16][59][61] - Silicomanganese: Ore quotes are firm, wide - range oscillation. Silicomanganese trend strength is 0 [16][59][61] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, wide - range oscillation. Coke trend strength is 0 [16][62][64] - Coking Coal: Wide - range oscillation. Coking coal trend strength is 0 [16][62][64] Steam Coal - Demand is yet to be released, wide - range oscillation. Steam coal trend strength is 0 [16][66][69]