唯一能够保持比特币在六月不下跌，只有稳定币法案的通过，可能会造成短期内的上涨。短期想要有大资金的补充，只能靠法案效应的影响，老崔的预估， 六月通过的难度较大，只能看七月能否落地。如果在六月没有实质性资金的补充，大概率还出现以回调为主的行情。而距离舆论效应最接近的反转可能性， 就是老美降息的议会，但也太过于遥远，已经接近六月的中下旬，17-19附近，中途如若没有资金的补充，可能会以回调为主，阴跌将会持续发生。与大家 明确一点，今年不可能出现熊市，一定要不要选择以空为主，后期一旦一单空单做损，不及时撤离很可能会将各位手中的筹码消耗一空。最简单的视角，今 年币圈的大事件，几乎都是自区块链形成以来汇聚资金最多的一次，无论是稳定币发行之后会流入何种市场，还是降息之后的大资金选择，以太都会占据一 定席位，今年确实是最有希望创下历史新高的一次。 天下熙熙，皆为利来；天下攘攘，皆为利往！大家好，我是你们的朋友老崔，专注数字货币行情分析，争取为广大币友传递最有价值的币市信息，欢迎各位 币友的关注与点赞，拒绝任何市场烟雾弹！ 很久没有与大家分析行情走势，今日讲解一下近期的走势，对后期做一个简单的预测。由于五月的走势，似乎让大家提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share chip sector is experiencing strong growth, with significant inflows into the Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF, indicating sustained investor confidence in the high-growth chip sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF (588750) saw a volume increase of 1.52%, attracting over 14 million yuan in the last trading day, with total inflows exceeding 120 million yuan in the past 20 days [1]. - The Shanghai Sci-Tech Chip Index (000685) rose by 1.55%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as SiRuPu (688536) up 7.04% and Lanqi Technology (688008) up 6.33% [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The global semiconductor market is entering an upward cycle, with a projected sales growth rate of 17% in 2024, and a 15.1% year-on-year increase in net profit for the chip sector in Q1 2025 [3][4]. - The rapid advancement of AI is expected to drive a second growth curve for the chip industry, with major internet companies planning to invest an average of 110 to 120 billion yuan annually in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years [4]. Group 3: Domestic Development - The need for domestic innovation in Electronic Design Automation (EDA) is becoming increasingly urgent due to overseas export restrictions on AI chips and EDA software, with domestic market penetration currently below 20% [3]. - The Chinese semiconductor industry is expected to see a significant increase in wafer fabrication capacity, with 32 new fabs planned by the end of 2024, focusing on mature processes [5].

从去年年底博通市值突破万亿美元后，就一直想聊一聊博通，准备后面把博通这家公司的业务好好 梳理一下，今天这篇文章，我们根据博通在5月30日举办的投资者网络研讨会的内容，先简单聊一聊 博通。 博通的Tomahawk 6 3nm芯片组已准备好在2025年下半年量产。这款芯片不仅是全球最复杂、性能最 高的交换芯片，支持102Tbps吞吐量，还采用了博通顶尖的200Gbps SERDES I/O技术。Tomahawk 6 不仅支持传统横向扩展，还扩展到新的纵向扩展用例，满足通用云、AI/机器学习和企业数据中心等 多种网络工作负载需求。这使得博通在竞争中始终保持1-2步的领先优势。 在AI芯片和网络半导体领域，博通有着无可撼动的领先地位。AI芯片主要分为两个大类，一个是 GPU，当然就是英伟达是绝对的龙头，另一类就是ASIC，也就是AI专用芯片，像Google和亚马逊的 AI芯片都是跟博通合作开发的；除了AI芯片，博通的网络芯片也是业内的龙头。 根据最新报告，博通预计2025财年AI相关总收入将达到190亿至200亿美元，同比增长超60%，完全 符合其三年目标市场规模（SAM）复合年增长率60-65%的预期。这不仅彰显了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rumors regarding South Korean equipment manufacturers, specifically Hanmi Semiconductor, halting the supply of critical TCB equipment for China's HBM production, highlighting the geopolitical tensions affecting the semiconductor industry [1][4]. Group 1: HBM Technology and Equipment - HBM chips have gained significant popularity due to their high memory bandwidth and capacity, essential for AI model training and inference [2]. - The TCB equipment plays a crucial role in the production of HBM chips by aligning and welding DRAM chips to substrates with micron-level precision [2][3]. - Hanmi Semiconductor has become a leader in the TCB equipment market, supported by SK Hynix's investment and collaboration since 2017 [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. has been exerting pressure on South Korea to restrict the supply of semiconductor equipment to China, particularly targeting HBM technology [4][5]. - Chinese companies like Huawei and Biren Technology face procurement restrictions for HBM from South Korean suppliers, impacting their AI chip development [4]. Group 3: Impact and Alternatives - Despite the potential supply disruptions, Chinese companies have been stockpiling HBM equipment, with reports indicating that Hefei Changxin's inventory could last until 2027 [5]. - Other global suppliers, including Japanese and Singaporean companies, can provide similar TCB equipment, offering alternatives to Chinese manufacturers [5]. - Domestic Chinese companies, such as Plascent, are developing their own TCB equipment, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing [5]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The article suggests that advancements in HBM4 technology may favor Chinese manufacturers, as they have already begun exploring mixed bonding techniques necessary for achieving high yields [5]. - Longjiang Storage is highlighted as a key player in this development, having previously adopted complex architectures to avoid patent conflicts, positioning itself ahead of competitors [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating significant profit growth in the upcoming years [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $44.062 billion for FY26Q1, representing a year-over-year increase of 69% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%. The GAAP gross margin was 60.5%, impacted by a $4.5 billion inventory impairment loss related to H20. Excluding this loss, the Non-GAAP gross margin was 71.3% [2]. - The company expects FY26Q2 revenue to be around $45 billion, accounting for an $8 billion revenue loss due to H20's ban on sales. The projected GAAP and Non-GAAP gross margins for FY26Q2 are 71.8% and 72.0%, respectively [2]. - The data center business continues to grow rapidly, driven by increased demand for inference computing power and the rollout of Blackwell GPUs. In FY26Q1, the data center segment generated $39.112 billion in revenue, a 73% increase year-over-year [2][3]. - The gaming segment achieved $3.763 billion in revenue for FY26Q1, up 42% year-over-year, primarily due to customers shifting to purchase RTX5090 and RTX6000 series graphics cards amid limited supply of data center GPUs [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - FY26Q1 revenue: $44.062 billion, YoY +69%, QoQ +12% - GAAP net profit: $18.775 billion, YoY +26%, QoQ -15% - Non-GAAP net profit: $19.894 billion, YoY +31%, QoQ -10% [2]. Business Segments - Data Center Revenue: $39.112 billion, YoY +73% - Gaming Revenue: $3.763 billion, YoY +42% - Professional Imaging Revenue: $0.509 billion, YoY +19% - Automotive Revenue: $0.567 billion, YoY +72% - OEM Revenue: $0.111 billion, YoY +42% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected GAAP net profits for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are $108.208 billion, $135.340 billion, and $152.762 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 48.5%, 25.1%, and 12.9% [4].

Core Viewpoint - Synopsys has received formal approval from the FTC for its $34 billion acquisition of Ansys, marking a significant consolidation in the EDA software industry [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Synopsys plans to sell its optical and photonic software tools business to Keysight Technologies as part of the acquisition agreement [1]. - Ansys will also divest a power analysis product to Keysight [1]. - The acquisition was initially announced in early 2024 and has undergone global antitrust scrutiny, pending approval from China [1][6]. Group 2: Market Impact - The acquisition is considered a "century acquisition" in the EDA software sector, significantly enhancing Synopsys's market position against its main competitor, Cadence Design Systems [2]. - By acquiring Ansys, Synopsys aims to strengthen its capabilities in chip design simulation, particularly in system-level and integrated simulation tools [2]. - This move is expected to better serve major clients like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, addressing complex design requirements in emerging technologies such as 6G, next-gen AI chip architectures, and quantum computing [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Client Base - Synopsys's recent financial results and strong outlook indicate growing demand for its EDA software, driven by major tech companies accelerating AI chip development [3]. - Key clients include top semiconductor firms like Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple, as well as cloud computing giants like Amazon and Microsoft [3]. - Synopsys's tools are crucial for semiconductor manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung, aiding in optimizing chip design and accelerating new process node development [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The agreement with the FTC reflects a shift towards resolving merger cases through settlements rather than litigation, contrasting with the Biden administration's previous stance [4]. - The FTC plans to release new guidelines on how it will evaluate merger settlements [4]. - The acquisition's approval process is complicated by geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding U.S. restrictions on technology sales to China [6].

Core Viewpoint - AMD benefits from a newly signed AI chip agreement in the Middle East and successfully withstands price competition from Intel, leading HSBC to upgrade its investment rating on AMD [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Stock Performance - The easing of the US-China tariff war and the AI chip supply agreement signed by Saudi Arabia have prompted a reassessment of AMD's stock price, despite limited or unquantifiable impacts on earnings [1]. - Since the US-China decision to pause tariffs for 90 days on May 12, AMD's stock has risen by 7%, with the annual price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio increasing to 29 times [1]. - HSBC raised AMD's P/E target from 20 times to 26 times and adjusted the 2026 revenue forecast for AMD's GPU from $6.6 billion to $7.7 billion, primarily due to a 15% increase in the deployment of advanced packaging technology "CoWoS" [1]. Group 2: Competitive Position and Future Outlook - HSBC has become more optimistic about AMD's client segment, believing the company can successfully fend off Intel's competition and expand its market share [2]. - Initially, HSBC expected Intel to engage in price competition to regain market share, but this did not have a significant impact as AMD's pricing was already competitive, and its advanced CPUs made its product line more attractive [2]. - As a result, HSBC upgraded AMD's investment rating from "reduce" to "hold" and raised the target price from $75 to $100 [2]. - AMD's stock rose by 3.85% to $114.56 on the 27th, with the year-to-date decline narrowing to 5.16% [2]. - AMD signed a $10 billion contract with Saudi AI company Humain to build AI infrastructure over the next five years, which is seen as a positive development that could help AMD and Nvidia mitigate the impact of US export controls [2].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is facing significant challenges due to U.S. export restrictions, prompting the company to develop a lower-priced AI chip specifically for the Chinese market to regain lost market share [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Impact - Nvidia's market share in China has plummeted from 95% before 2022 to 50% due to U.S. export restrictions [8]. - The company has seen a direct financial impact, with a write-off of $5.5 billion in inventory and a loss of $15 billion in potential sales due to the H20 chip ban [10]. Group 2: New Chip Development - The new AI chip, priced between $6,500 and $8,000, is based on the RTX Pro 6000D and utilizes traditional GDDR7 memory, avoiding advanced packaging technologies from TSMC [4][5]. - Nvidia plans to start mass production of this new chip in June and aims to release another chip in September, indicating a strategic push to recover market presence [5]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Nvidia has previously customized GPUs for the Chinese market twice, and this new chip marks the third attempt to adapt to the changing regulatory environment [7]. - The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, has expressed concerns that continued U.S. restrictions may drive more Chinese customers to seek domestic alternatives [9].

Core Viewpoint - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang represents a significant strategic move in the semiconductor and computing power sectors, aiming to create a comprehensive domestic supply chain for AI chips and computing services, potentially positioning itself as a Chinese equivalent to global giants like Intel and NVIDIA [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Value of the Merger - The merger forms a complete "chip design - server manufacturing - computing service" closed-loop industry chain, which is crucial for the domestic substitution process [1]. - The combined entity will enhance scale effects and technological synergy, directly competing with international leaders, thereby improving bargaining power in the global market [1]. - This merger is the first major asset restructuring case following the revision of the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," likely encouraging more mergers in the hard technology sector [2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Trends - The semiconductor equipment ETF (SH561980) and cloud computing ETF (SZ159890) saw significant inflows, indicating strong market interest in these sectors following the merger announcement [4]. - The global cloud computing market is projected to exceed $600 billion by 2025, with the Chinese market expected to surpass 1 trillion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 36% [4]. - The rise of domestic large models like DeepSeek is expected to exponentially increase the demand for computing power, transitioning from linear to exponential growth [4][5].

编辑：芯智讯-浪客剑 5月25日消息，据路透社报道，英伟达即将针对中国市场推出一款新的AI芯片，其价格将远低于之前的 H20 型号，大约只有其一半，预计最早将于今年6月开始量产，7月进入中国市场。 知情人士称，这款新的专供中国市场的GPU将会是基于英伟达的服务器级图形处理器RTX Pro 6000D来 进行构建，采用传统的GDDR7显存，而不是HBM3e，也没有使用台积电的先进封装技术CoWoS，这也 使得这款芯片成本大幅削减，预计售价在6500至8000美元之间，远低于H20芯片的10000至12000美元。 中国是英伟达的重要市场，上一财年占其销售额的13%。在美国4月实施H20芯片禁令后，英伟达曾考 虑为中国市场开发H20芯片的降级版，但未成功。英伟达CEO黄仁勋表示，由于美国出口限制，采用旧 版Hopper架构的H20芯片无法进一步修改。 黄仁勋此前在接受采访时表示，在 2021 年初，也就是拜登政府上台之初，英伟达在中国拥有高达 95% 的市场份额。但今天，这一比例已经下降到只有 50%。而造成下滑的主要原因是美国拜登和特朗普政 府对中国实施的各种禁令和制裁的影响。然而，这并不意味着中国的AI产业正 ...