投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-05 宏观预期乐观+供应扰动担忧，有色大幅 走高 有⾊观点：宏观预期乐观+供应扰动担忧，有⾊⼤幅⾛⾼ 交易逻辑：9月美国零售数据超预期回落，美联储11月经济褐皮书暗示经 济走弱，美联储降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，铜和锡再度出现供应扰动担忧。终端 略偏弱，11月初汽车销售增速放缓，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧，基本金属本周价格大幅上涨 后，消费有受到一定抑制，这可能会限制价格进一步上行高度，可谨慎关 注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜 铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：LME注销仓单提升，铜价震荡偏强。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观情绪反复，铝价震荡回升。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价短期反弹。 铅观点：社 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in copper prices driven by strong demand from emerging sectors such as AI, energy storage, photovoltaics, wind power, and electric vehicles, alongside supply constraints and structural inventory issues [3][4][10] Market Dynamics - LME copper futures reached a historical high of $11,540 per ton, marking a 31% increase since 2025 [3][4] - Shanghai copper futures surpassed 90,000 yuan per ton for the first time, closing at 90,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 2% [3] - The market sentiment is influenced by a macro environment of loose monetary policy and a tight balance in copper supply and demand [3][10] Supply Constraints - Major copper mines in Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have reduced output due to various disruptions, leading to a negative growth rate in copper production [5] - The processing fees for copper concentrate have dropped to negative values, forcing reductions in smelting output [5] - LME registered warehouse stocks decreased by 32.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in available copper for delivery [5][6] Demand Growth - Global copper consumption is expected to grow by nearly 800,000 tons annually, driven by both traditional and emerging sectors [4][7] - Asian demand contributes over 60% of the increase, primarily through aggressive purchasing rather than a sudden spike in absolute consumption [8] - The demand for copper in the domestic market remains resilient, particularly in the real estate and appliance sectors [7][10] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current copper price trend is supported by long-term structural factors, including the rise of new industries and persistent supply shortages [9][10] - The expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to sustain high copper prices [10] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the recent surge in copper prices may be temporary, as supply is expected to meet global demand in the long run [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in international copper prices, driven by tightening global supply and concerns over potential tariffs from the U.S. government [1] - On December 3, the copper price on the London Metal Exchange reached a historical high of $11,540 per ton, indicating a continuous upward trend in copper prices [1] - Factors contributing to the price surge include a reduction in copper production forecasts by Glencore due to a mining accident in Chile, which is expected to decrease output by nearly 40% compared to 2018 [1] Group 2 - The demand for copper is expected to grow significantly due to the rapid development of AI and data centers, which require high-performance hardware and extensive electrical connections [2] - The recent employment report from ADP indicated a surprising decrease of approximately 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector, which is lower than market expectations, potentially influencing copper prices [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December may provide short-term support for copper prices [2]

上海钢联铜事业部研究员崔钊瑞表示，11月21日多位美联储高级官员集中发表讲话，部分官员表态偏"鸽"，美联储内部的分歧依然显著。市场对美联储12月 降息25bp的预期急速升温，短期内或对铜价有所支撑。 每日经济新闻综合央视财经、上海证券报 图片来源：视觉中国 另据媒体报道，未来，AI的快速发展将成为铜需求的一大变量。崔钊瑞表示，AI、数据中心对铜的新需求体现在硬件制造、电路连接、电力传输等方面。 AI需要高性能的处理器，数据中心需要高速低延迟的网络连接以及大量的电力来确保运行，这些需求给铜箔、铜缆等相关铜材的消费带来新的增长动能。 美联储降息预期也是影响铜价的一大因素。美国自动数据处理公司(ADP)发布的最新就业报告显示，11月美国私营部门意外减少约3.2万个工作岗位，这一数 据远低于市场此前预期的新增岗位。另据美国劳工统计局公布的数据，9月美国进口物价指数月率为0%，也低于市场预期的0.10%。 据央视财经，受到全球铜供应趋紧和对美国潜在关税的担忧等，当地时间12月3日，英国伦敦金属交易所铜价格一度触及每吨11540美元的历史高位，国际铜 价继续刷新历史新高。 业内人士表示，此轮铜价上涨受到多重因素影响。首先 ...

贵金属市场宏观趋势与基本面分析 20251204 摘要 美联储降息预期摇摆不定，受劳动力市场放缓和经济疲软影响，12 月降 息概率上升，但官员对降息路径存在分歧，鲍威尔言论偏鹰派，数据缺 失也增加不确定性，12 月或降息 25 个基点后暂停。 美国消费表现疲软，零售销售同比接近零，个人储蓄下降，劳动力市场 和薪资增速放缓抑制消费，信用卡违约率创新高，消费对 GDP 增长形成 压力。 全球黄金需求第三季度创历史新高，总需求量同比增加 3%，总金额飙 升 44%，达 1,460 亿美元，央行购金、ETF 投资、金条金币及首饰需 求均增加，投资需求占据主导地位。 全球央行持续购金，新兴市场国家如中国、土耳其、印度和波兰大规模 购入黄金，中国已连续 12 个月增持，央行行为可能影响个人投资者决 策。 白银市场供需缺口依然存在，预计今年全球白银供需缺口为 3,657 吨， 这将进一步支撑白银价格，但白银价格波动率高于黄金，对国内政策变 动更敏感。 Q&A 宏观经济因素对贵金属市场有何影响？ 宏观经济因素对贵金属市场影响显著。目前，美联储降息预期的不确定性增加， 主要由于美国劳动力市场放缓和经济走弱迹象明显。美联储主席人 ...

今日开盘，沪铜主力合约高开高走，盘中最高价格触及每吨91450元。截至收盘报每吨90980元，涨幅为 2.26％，收盘价再创历史新高。业内人士指出，美联储降息预期是带动此轮铜价上涨的主要原因。 （央视财经《经济信息联播》）今天（12月4日），沪铜主力合约收盘再创历史新高，本周沪铜期货的 累计涨幅已经超过了4%。 此外，来自产业链的扰动也在助推铜价上涨。一方面AI和新能源汽车行业对铜需求量保持增长，另一 方面铜精矿加工费已经跌至负数，冶炼企业处于亏损，减产意愿强烈，导致全球铜市场处于供应偏紧状 态。 国信期货首席分析师 顾冯达：当前铜产业链处于原料紧张与下游产业相对困难的局面，铜矿的进口加 工费已跌至-40美元以上，创有记录以来的低位。中国冶炼企业正在有序进行减产，2026年铜资源紧张 将成为大概率的事件。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：令文芳 国信期货首席分析师 顾冯达：本周沪铜期货的累计涨幅已经超过4%，年度累计涨幅超过22%。全市场 认定美联储降息25个基点基本上是板上钉钉，这会进一步压制美元指数的价格走低，对大宗商品带来涨 势推动。 ...

市场解读： 12月4日，周三国际金市呈现出持稳态势，现货黄金价格大多数时间稳定在每盎司4200上方，疲软的美 国就业数据一度帮助金价盘中触及4241.40美元的高点，但尾盘回吐涨幅，收报4203美元附近，接近收 平。与此同时，白银价格周三刷新历史高点，盘中一度达到58.96美元附近，仍为黄金提供了支撑，也 反映出市场对美联储降息的强烈预期，推动美国债市收益率回落、美元走软以及股市上涨。随着美国劳 动力市场意外下滑和美联储宽松政策信号日益明显，白银的强势飙升已点燃贵金属板块热情，而黄金作 为传统避险资产，似乎正蓄势待发。 黄金技术分析： 黄金日内依然会走震荡，等待破位性行情。周三更加缩小区间在4240/4195，都没有超过50美金，收盘 价位保持在4212附近，暂时的思路要维持周二，周三的看法不变，先看震荡走势，再看周四的美盘是否 破位区间。 从技术面来看，日线连续两个小阴线收低，布林开始收口了，但是均线没有破位，所以暂时还不能说要 走出大跌空间，能看跌，至少要跌破布林中轨4150的支撑，跌破后空头的力度就来了，再看周五的下跌 空间。H4周期的区间范围比较明显了，布林收口，均线系统粘合，基本没有上面扩展性，所以 ...

Group 1: US Employment Data - In November, US private sector jobs decreased by 32,000, marking the largest decline since March 2023, significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 40,000 jobs [1][6] - Small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 employees, accounted for a loss of 120,000 jobs, with firms employing 20 to 49 workers laying off 74,000 [1][6] - In contrast, large companies with more than 50 employees added 90,000 jobs, indicating a clear divergence in the labor market [1][6] Group 2: Japanese Bond Market - Anticipation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December has led to a surge in Japanese government bond yields, reaching multi-decade highs [2][7] - The 30-year bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 3.445%, a historical peak, while the 20-year yield increased by 3 basis points to 2.94%, the highest since June 1999 [2][7] - The 10-year bond yield also climbed by 1.5 basis points to 1.905%, the first time it has reached this level since 2007 [2][7] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced slight declines, trading around 4196, influenced by profit-taking and improved market risk sentiment [3][8] - Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and weak economic data from the US have limited the downside for gold [3][8] Group 4: Currency Markets - The USD/JPY pair saw a slight decline, trading around 155.50, affected by the Fed's rate cut expectations and weak US employment data [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair also fell slightly, trading at approximately 1.3960, pressured by a weakening US dollar and rising oil prices, although expectations of weak Canadian employment data limited the decline [5][10]

Core Insights - Domestic and international copper prices have reached new highs, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and regional tightness in global copper inventories [2][4][6] - The anticipated demand for copper in the AI era is expected to require significant copper ore imports, leading to potential regional shortages [2][6] Price Movements - On December 3, LME copper futures peaked at $11,540 per ton, closing at $11,448.5, a 2.72% increase [4] - On December 4, domestic copper futures reached historical highs of 90,980 CNY per ton and 82,080 CNY per ton for international contracts, with increases of 2.26% and 2.96% respectively [4][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the copper price increase may continue, but any negative factors or unmet demand expectations could lead to significant price corrections [3][11] - The current imbalance in global copper inventory distribution is exacerbated by strong demand for copper in the U.S. and concerns over potential tariffs [5][12] Industry Impact - The impact of rising copper prices varies across the supply chain; overseas mines benefit the most, while smelting companies with high external ore procurement face greater challenges [8][9] - Copper processing companies are experiencing cost pressures due to rising procurement costs and low processing fees, which may lead to reduced operating rates [9][10] Future Outlook - The copper market is expected to remain volatile, with potential for high price fluctuations due to macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand fundamentals [11][12] - Key factors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, recovery of copper supply in response to high prices, and the realization of copper consumption growth driven by AI and energy storage [12]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is around $4206.67 per ounce, with silver reaching a historical high of $58.95 per ounce, driven by weak U.S. employment data that has increased market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] - The ADP employment report indicated an unexpected decrease in private sector jobs in the U.S. for November, reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming Fed policy meeting, with traders estimating a nearly 90% probability of a cut [1][5] - Investors are awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a key inflation indicator preferred by the Fed, for further policy guidance [1][5] Group 2: Gold Technical Analysis - Gold exhibited a "high-low" oscillation pattern on Wednesday, with a maximum fluctuation range of $4194 to $4241, indicating a lack of clear trend continuation and a preference for high-level consolidation [2][6] - The daily chart shows gold maintaining above the 5-day moving average, with $4200 acting as a significant psychological support level, while the $4245-$4250 range serves as strong resistance [2][6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on the breakout strength of the oscillation range, with key levels of resistance at $4230-$4250 and support at $4190-$4170 [2][6] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The U.S. crude oil price is trading around $59 per barrel, with prices rising due to the lack of breakthroughs in U.S.-Russia talks regarding the Ukraine war, which diminishes the prospect of easing sanctions on Russian oil [3][7] - Brent crude futures increased by 0.4% to $62.67 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures rose by 0.5% to $58.95 per barrel; however, concerns over oversupply are limiting price increases [3][7] - Recent data from the EIA shows a comprehensive increase in U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories, exceeding market expectations and indicating ample supply in the market [3][7] Group 4: Oil Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a secondary oscillation pattern, with K-line fluctuations testing previous lows around $56; if this support level is broken, a mid-term downtrend may ensue [4][8] - Short-term trends show a downward bias, with MACD indicators suggesting bearish momentum is dominant [4][8] - Trading strategies recommend focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with short-term resistance at $60.5-$61.5 and support at $57.5-$56.5 [4][8]