Core Viewpoint - Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeff Schmid advocates for maintaining interest rates at a level that continues to exert pressure on the economy to further cool inflation [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - Schmid emphasizes the need for a moderately restrictive monetary policy due to persistent inflationary pressures [1][5]. - He suggests that a degree of cooling in the labor market may be necessary to prevent a deterioration in inflation outlook [3][7]. - The current target range for the federal funds rate is between 3.5% and 3.75%, which is near the so-called neutral level [3][7]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Schmid expresses concern that further rate cuts may not stimulate hiring, as the labor market is expected to show weakness in 2025, driven by structural factors [3][7]. - He warns that strong economic growth could elevate inflation, and doubts about achieving the 2% inflation target could lead to more lasting impacts from rate cuts [3][7]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Structure - Schmid discusses the independence and decentralized structure of the Federal Reserve, which allows for diverse perspectives on monetary policy [4][8]. - He notes that the Federal Reserve has faced increasing scrutiny from the Trump administration, with some officials advocating for a reassessment of certain elements of the Federal Reserve Bank system [3][7].

美联储戴利：预计通胀将在年内有所改善。 来源：滚动播报 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月15日，ATFX汇评：美联储2026年首份褐皮书发布，内容中性偏乐观。褐皮书中提到：在12个联邦储 备区中，8个经济活动以略有或温和的速度增长，其中3个地区报告变化不大，1个地区报告略有下降。 上一份褐皮书（2025年11月末发布）中提到：自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变化，两个地区温和 下滑，一个地区温和增长。 破性的影响。不过，从褐皮书中透露出的中性乐观态度看，美国经济并没有外界预测的那么悲观，美元 指数有延续中短期涨势的可能。 比较两份褐皮书内容看，2025年11月末至本月上旬，美国的宏观经济有明显的复苏迹象。12个储备区中 8个区都实现增长，这本身就意味着美国经济正在从10~11月份的政府停摆阴影中恢复过来。经济恢复 后，美联储降息的紧迫性会有所降低，逻辑上利空美元指数。 ▲ATFX图 劳动力市场方面，褐皮书中提到，就业基本保持不变，十二个学区中有八个报告招聘没有变化。对于目 前的劳动力市场来说，没有变化就是好消息。根据美国非农就业报告的数据，12月份，非农就业人口为 5万人，低于前值5.6万人，也低于2025年5月份以前的10万人平均水平。 特朗普激进的移民政策和人 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials indicated that there is still significant room for interest rate cuts, but this will depend on inflation trends [1][3] - U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq rising over 0.7%, and storage-related stocks like SanDisk, Micron Technology, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology seeing gains of over 3% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index experienced a decline of over 0.66%, with individual stocks such as Kingsoft Cloud and Tencent Music dropping more than 4% [1] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices fell sharply, with spot silver dropping over 3% to below $90, and gold declining by more than 0.4% [2] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 recorded 198,000, the lowest since November 29 of the previous year, against a market expectation of 215,000 [2]

与其他美联储官员一致，古尔斯比重申央行独立性对实现物价稳定和充分就业目标至关重要。"确实有 一些国家对其央行展开刑事调查，但那是津巴布韦、俄罗斯、土耳其等国家，你不会把它们称为成熟的 发达经济体。" 古尔斯比还高度评价鲍威尔的任期表现，称其为"首轮入选名人堂级别"的美联储主席，认为鲍威尔在不 引发经济衰退的情况下成功压低了通胀。 古尔斯比并未就具体法律问题置评，但认同鲍威尔此前的观点，围绕施工项目的质疑，可能被视为总统 在利率问题上施压的"借口"。"如果因为不同意利率决策而以调查作为前提，那就太糟糕了，我们不该 走到这一步。" 美国总统特朗普近来持续对鲍威尔领导下的美联储进行尖锐、甚至带有人身色彩的批评，多次要求大幅 降息，并给鲍威尔贴上"太迟先生"的标签。值得注意的是，美联储自2025年9月以来已三次下调基准利 率。鲍威尔的主席任期将于今年5月结束，其美联储理事任期可延续至2028年。 美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周四表示，近期针对美联储及主席鲍威尔的攻击令人担忧，若削弱央行独 立性，可能对通胀前景造成不利影响。他还指出，鉴于有充分迹象显示就业市场稳定，央行应将重点放 在降低通胀上，这番言论继续维持了今年晚些 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储官员古尔斯比表示：若试图剥夺央行独立性，通胀将卷土重来。 ...

美联储官员古尔斯比：近期通胀数据显示关税影响可能减弱，这是最好的消息。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently in a phase of oscillation against major currencies, influenced by commodity prices, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy direction, and expectations of Chinese demand [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The Australian economy is experiencing a moderate recovery with stable private demand and a robust labor market, but growth is slowing, the housing market is cooling, and inflation remains above target despite a decline [1] - As a resource-exporting country, the AUD's commodity currency nature ties it closely to core commodity prices, with Chinese demand expectations and global commodity fluctuations directly impacting exports [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The core driver for the AUD is the divergence in RBA policy, with the governor signaling a potential resumption of interest rate hikes due to concerns over uncontrolled inflation after several rounds of rate cuts [1] - Market speculation regarding the RBA's policy direction in the first half of the year is intense, with uncertainty being a key variable affecting the AUD [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD is currently in a balanced oscillation range, with technical signals being ambiguous; strong support is formed by moving averages and previous lower bounds, while resistance is created by prior highs and psychological levels [2] - Indicators show a neutral position with no overbought or oversold conditions, and the overall trend is still developing, with potential for upward movement if resistance is broken [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions predict that the AUD will primarily oscillate in 2026, closely tied to RBA policy, commodity trends, and Chinese demand [2] - Key upcoming data to watch includes U.S. data affecting the dollar and Australian quarterly inflation data, which will directly influence policy expectations and provide direction for the AUD [2]

Core Insights - The core inflation rate in the U.S. for December increased by 2.6% year-on-year, which is lower than expected [1] - Food prices have significantly risen, contradicting claims from the Trump administration that grocery prices are decreasing [3][13] Food Price Trends - Over the past year, beef prices rose by 16.4%, coffee by 19.8%, lettuce by 7.3%, and frozen fish by 8.6% [3][13] - The overall cost of household food consumption increased by 2.4% in the past 12 months, with a monthly increase of 0.7% in December, marking the largest monthly rise since October 2022 [4][14] - Despite some food categories like eggs seeing a price drop of 20.9%, five out of six tracked food categories experienced price increases [5][15] Consumer Behavior Changes - Low-income consumers are prioritizing essential items and opting for cheaper alternatives, reducing their purchase quantities and increasing shopping frequency [5][15] - Middle-class consumers are also shifting their purchasing habits, focusing on promotions and store-brand products to save costs [5][15] Impact of Tariffs and Policies - Tariff policies have had a limited direct impact on most food prices, as the majority of food consumed in the U.S. is domestically produced [5][15] - Imported goods like coffee and tropical fruits have seen price increases due to tariffs, with bananas rising by 5.9% year-on-year in December [7][16] Labor Market and Agricultural Costs - Labor shortages in agriculture are exacerbated by tightened immigration policies, affecting the availability of workers for harvesting crops [10][20] - Agricultural labor costs are a significant driver of overall industry expenses, accounting for about 50% of total spending [20] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a 2.3% increase in household food prices by 2026, maintaining a similar growth rate as in 2025 [19] Economic Outlook - The current inflation data suggests that while inflation is not spiraling out of control, the claims of decreasing food prices by the government are unfounded [4][14] - The ongoing labor shortages and rising costs of agricultural inputs may continue to pressure food prices in the near future [20]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 贵金属期货日报 2026/1/15 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1035.200 | -5.4↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 22665 | -98.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 93,276.00 | -7403.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 1,470.00 | +32.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 190,086.00 | -11001.00↓ ...