与此同时，美元指数震荡走高，截至15时55分报98.2671，日内上涨0.60%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）9月2日，日元对美元盘中走弱，跌破148关口。截至北京时间15时 55分，日元对美元报148.7035，日内跌超1%。 ...

Group 1 - Central banks are expected to increase their gold and foreign exchange reserves over the next five years, with 72% anticipating a moderate rise, 17% expecting no change, and 6% predicting a significant decline [1] - Demand for gold continues to rise as central banks increase their holdings, leading to a favorable outlook for gold prices [1] - Gold has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds as the most sought-after asset by central banks, with total gold reserves approaching $4 trillion, exceeding the $3.8 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [1] Group 2 - In the context of increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve's policy path is characterized by "expectation reinforcement and independence erosion," which is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index [3] - Despite rising risk appetite in U.S. equities, institutional demand for precious metals continues to drive prices higher [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is high, and upcoming economic data will significantly influence future monetary policy expectations and market direction [3]

近期美元指数的走势可以说相当纠结，周二（9月2日）亚盘时段虽然小幅反弹，但整体仍处于五周低点附近徘徊。这种不上不下的状 态，其实反映出市场正处在一种"等待模式"中——大家都在观望几项关键数据和事件的结果，不敢轻易押注方向。 从技术分析的角度来看，美元指数目前似乎被框在了一个区间内。上方的阻力首先在97.85-97.90一带，更重要的位置则在98.00-98.05区 间；而下方的支撑则位于97.50-97.55附近，如果跌破，可能进一步下探97.35-97.40区域。这种技术形态其实也和基本面相互印证——在 重要数据公布之前，市场大概率会维持这种震荡格局，很难出现单边突破。 当前美元走势的核心逻辑就是"等待与观望"。在周五非农数据出炉之前，市场大概率会继续维持这种区间震荡的走势。对于市场参与者 而言，现阶段或许更适合控制仓位、管理风险，而不是基于预期进行大幅操作。毕竟，在一个由数据和事件主导的市场里，保持耐心和 灵活性总是没错的。 除了经济数据，一些政治层面的事件也在影响着市场情绪。比如最近特朗普总统与美联储理事库克之间的纠纷，就让不少投资者开始关 注美联储的独立性会不会受到影响。虽然美联储一直强调其决策不受政 ...

同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1089，较上一交易日下调17个基点。 美元指数在98关口下方震荡，截至9时40分，报97.7622。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表机构观点称，展望未来12个月，人民币前景有望在数项利好因 素支撑下进一步升值。中国出口商的结汇活动今年以来持续增加，7月份净结汇率升至2024年10月以来 最高，为人民币提供了直接支撑。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡）9月2日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘下跌，报 7.1450，上一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1332。截至9时40分，离岸人民币对美元报7.13630。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In late August, the RMB experienced a rapid appreciation against the backdrop of a weak US dollar index, strong central bank midpoint pricing, and attractive domestic equity market performance, leading to a new low for the USD/CNY exchange rate this year [1] Group 1 - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain strong in the short term, gradually returning to a "three-price unification" [1] - If the RMB can maintain a strong trend as the year-end approaches, the demand for settlement is likely to continue supporting the RMB exchange rate [1] - The current domestic fundamentals are primarily providing a floor for the exchange rate, with foreign capital inflow into the equity market but facing outflow pressure in the bond market [1] Group 2 - A breakthrough of the 7 level for the RMB exchange rate will require additional catalysts [1]

Report Information - Authors: Yang Lina, Hu Bin, Liang Haikuan [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2012] No. 75 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The non - ferrous sector is expected to gradually recover, with warming expectations of interest rate cuts and positive demand expectations. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period is approaching, and there may be short - term recoveries in non - ferrous metals, but the upward movement requires positive resonance from each variety's fundamentals. However, the contradiction between strong reality and weak expectations will cause fluctuations and adjustments [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector is trending towards recovery. Interest rate cut expectations are warming up. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, while the US manufacturing growth is slowing, and inflation is moderately rising, further boosting interest rate cut expectations. Non - ferrous metals continued to fluctuate and recover this week. Attention should be paid to the resonance signals between macro and micro factors. The upward space needs positive resonance from each variety's fundamentals [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper have turned to a situation of both supply and demand booming, with demand rising faster. The price center is expected to shift upwards, with short - term support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and pressure at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The supply in China is increasing while demand is weak. Zinc prices are fluctuating and rebounding, with short - term support at 21600 - 21800 and pressure at 22800 - 23200. It is recommended to be slightly bullish in the short - term [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and falling in the high - level range. It is recommended to hold short positions, with support at 20000 - 20200 and pressure at 21000 - 21200. Alumina is oscillating weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is oscillating and consolidating [5][13]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are in a weak pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, with support at 250000 - 255000 and pressure at 270000 - 290000 [6][14]. - **Lead**: The supply is shrinking, and demand is in the peak - season expectation. Lead prices are fluctuating and rebounding. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with support at 16600 - 16800 and pressure at 17200 - 17400 [8][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are rebounding, and stainless steel is following nickel's upward trend. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips for both. Nickel has support at 115000 - 116000 and pressure at 123000 - 125000; stainless steel has support at 12700 - 12800 and pressure at 13000 - 13200 [9][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Copper closed at 79780 with a 0.47% increase; zinc closed at 22175 with a 0.16% increase; aluminum closed at 20645 with a 0.46% decrease; alumina closed at 3008 with a 0.92% decrease; tin closed at 273240 with a 1.94% decrease; lead closed at 16855 with a 0.15% decrease; nickel closed at 123450 with a 1.44% increase; stainless steel closed at 12950 with a 1.05% increase; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20275 with a 0.37% decrease [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Analyzes the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, net long - position changes, and net short - position changes of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, etc., and the influencing factors [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Presents the spot prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Provides various charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [22][24][26] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Contains various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio, and the price differences between different varieties [49][51][53] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Includes various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [66][69][71]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the RMB has experienced a rapid appreciation due to a combination of external factors, including a weaker US dollar index, strong central bank guidance on exchange rate expectations, and attractive performance in the domestic equity market, which has drawn foreign capital inflows [1] Group 1 - The USD/CNY exchange rate has reached a new low for the year, reflecting the recent appreciation of the RMB [1] - The RMB is expected to maintain a strong and fluctuating trend in the short term, gradually returning to a state of "three prices in one" [1] - As the year-end approaches, if the RMB can sustain its strong fluctuations, it is anticipated that the demand for currency settlement will continue to support the RMB exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The current domestic fundamentals are primarily providing a floor for the exchange rate, with foreign capital inflows into the equity market contrasted by outflows in the bond market [1] - More catalysts are needed for the RMB to break the 7 level against the US dollar [1]

衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.07%，在汇市尾市收于97.707。 新华财经纽约9月1日电美元指数1日下跌。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1708美元，高于前一交易日的1.1699美元；1英镑兑换1.3544美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3510美元。 1美元兑换147.22日元，高于前一交易日的147.02日元；1美元兑换0.8010瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.8001瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3752加元，高于前一交易日的1.3728加元；1美元兑换9.3916瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.4643瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Period: September 1 - 5, 2025 [1] - Report Subjects: Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward due to the Fed's dovish signals, a weaker US dollar, geopolitical risks, and a weakening labor market [7] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, Fed officials' speeches, geopolitical situations, and global central bank policies [7] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 800 range [11] - This Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 794 - 803 and support at 766 - 775 [12] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [19][28] - Data Presented: Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price spreads [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "fluctuating and stabilizing, rebounding at the end of the month" due to the Fed's expected rate cut, a weaker US dollar, lower US bond yields, and industrial demand expectations [32] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and Fed officials' speeches. Whether the rate - cut expectation can be further strengthened will dominate short - term trends [32] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [33] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with support at 8500 - 8800 and resistance at 9200 - 9500 [36] - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support at 8900 - 9000 and resistance at 9400 - 9500 [37] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [42][45] - Data Presented: Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price spreads [44][47][49]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has rebounded for the second consecutive week, approaching previous horizontal resistance levels, with a potential target of $3533 in the near term, despite some pullback risks [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $3371.93 per ounce at the beginning of the week, recorded a low of $3351.20 on Tuesday, and subsequently rebounded to reach a high of $3453.75, closing at $3449.09, marking a weekly increase of $77.16 or 2.29% [3][9]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $102.55, indicating strong volatility in the market [3]. Market Influences - The rebound in gold prices was supported by buying interest at the mid-band and 60-day moving averages, alongside increasing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, along with favorable consumer confidence and inflation expectations, contributed to the bullish sentiment in the gold market [3][5]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with the potential for further price increases due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the likelihood of a rate cut cycle from the Federal Reserve [5][7]. - The market is currently positioned above several moving averages, indicating a favorable environment for potential bullish entries upon any pullbacks [5][9]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is anticipated to face resistance around $3455 to $3470, while support levels are identified at $3425 and $3400 [10]. - The Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, suggesting a higher probability of price increases in the near future [5][7].