美元指数DXY短线走高12点，现报98.80。 美元指数 ...

Group 1 - The current trend for gold is weak, but the long-term outlook remains bullish, with a focus on the 3330 resistance level for potential upward movement [1][2][3] - The recent decline in gold prices broke the support level at 3320, with a low of 3301, indicating a loss of confidence among bulls [2][3] - The domestic gold market continues to show weakness, with the Shanghai gold contract (2512) hitting a low of 770, but the long-term outlook remains bullish with targets of 790 for Shanghai gold and 785 for Rongtong gold [3] Group 2 - International silver experienced slight declines, with a low of 37.9, but the overall view remains bullish with a defensive level set at 37.5 [4] - The Shanghai silver contract (2512) was advised to go long at 9180, with a target of 9500, indicating a cautious but optimistic approach to the silver market [4] - International crude oil has successfully risen to 67, with previous long positions at 65 yielding profits, and the focus is on the 68 resistance level for potential further gains [4][5] Group 3 - Domestic fuel oil (2512) has shown good profits, reaching above 2930, and the focus is on the continuation of this upward trend, with potential targets around 3200 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in gold prices, with the December 2025 gold futures dropping by $24.4 to $3370.9 per ounce, marking a 0.72% decrease and reaching a two-week low of $3357 during the trading session [1] - The increase in the US dollar index by 1.02% to 98.634, alongside a slight rise in US Treasury yields, has put pressure on gold prices [1] - Enhanced overall market risk appetite is also seen as a negative factor for gold [1] Group 2 - A new trade agreement between the US and the EU was announced, which includes a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US and a commitment from the EU to invest $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set to begin, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current federal funds rate despite pressure from President Trump for a rate cut [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has warned about the global economic situation and suggested that investors allocate about 15% of their portfolios to gold or cryptocurrencies as alternative currencies [2]

周一（7月28日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数上涨1.02%，报98.642点，北京时间14:00打破日内稍早的窄幅 横盘震荡状态、并持续走高，日内交投区间为97.492-98.681点。 彭博美元指数涨0.78%，报1207.89点。 ...

美元指数日内涨幅达1.0%，报98.6501。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a significant increase of 1%, reaching a value of 98.57 [1] Group 1 - The rise in the US Dollar Index indicates a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [1]

美元指数DXY日内大涨1.00%，现报98.57。 ...

美元指数DXY向上触及98，日内涨0.41%。 美元指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market is operating smoothly with a balanced supply and demand, stable foreign exchange reserves, and a resilient foreign trade environment, despite complex global conditions [1][5]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB exchange rate has shown increased two-way volatility and resilience, with the onshore RMB appreciating by 1,332 basis points and the offshore RMB by 1,796 basis points against the USD in the first half of the year [2][3]. - The USD index has decreased by 10.79% in the same period, contributing to the RMB's strength [2]. - Market analysts expect the RMB to maintain a stable range between 7.1 and 7.3 against the USD in the second half of the year, with limited potential for the RMB to break below 7 [4]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of $322 billion and a continuous growth for six months [5][6]. - The increase in reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the USD and the overall rise in global financial asset prices [5]. Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves stood at 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) as of June, with a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces [6]. - The gold reserves represent 7.32% of the total foreign exchange reserves, which is below the global average of around 15% [6]. Cross-Border Investment Reforms - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has proposed reforms to facilitate cross-border investment and financing, aiming to optimize the business environment and support high-quality economic development [7]. - These reforms include nine specific policies to enhance foreign exchange management and promote stable foreign investment [7]. Future Outlook - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable, supported by a recovering economy, balanced international payments, and enhanced market resilience [8]. - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies and the promotion of domestic demand are anticipated to further stabilize the RMB exchange rate [8].

不过，技术面给出了不一样的结论。5月12日至今，美元指数日线级别形成头肩底结构：左肩形成于6月 12日，最低点97.57；右肩形成于7月24日，最低点97.08点。左肩和右肩的数值接近，符合头肩底的基本 要求。7月1日触及阶段性低点96.34，形成头肩底的底部。头肩底结构往往意味着中期趋势筑底结构， 一旦左右肩的高点被突破，较大规模的上涨有望开启。图中绿色区域为近期阻力位，区间 98.93~99.39，如果行情在此处形成长阳线，则筑底结构确认完成。 消息面来看，美元的最大利空因素来自于美联储。美国总统特朗普接二连三的批评美联储暂停降息的货 币政策，昨日特朗普甚至亲自去美联储总部督促鲍威尔降息。特朗普的诉求是，将美国的基准利率降低 至1%或以下，以降低白宫的债务利息规模，刺激房地产市场发展。美联储主席鲍威尔坚持不降息，这 有可能威胁到他的职位稳定。特朗普可能利用美联储大楼翻新资金超预算的理由，罢免鲍威尔。一旦鲍 威尔离任，美国宏观经济前景将更加暗淡，美元指数空头趋势可能延续。 欧盟已经宣布对美国的关税政策进行反制，总额930亿欧元，8月7日执行。特朗普的激进关税政策可能 反噬美国宏观经济，并且会冲击美元作为储备 ...