Core Insights - The implementation plan by six departments aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, focusing on new fields and the integration of artificial intelligence in consumption scenarios [1][2][5] Group 1: Policy and Economic Context - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth, with a focus on integrating AI into consumer sectors [1][5] - The plan encourages innovation in products and services through AI, aiming to create a digital ecosystem across the entire industry chain [1][3] Group 2: AI and Consumer Innovation - The application of AI in consumer goods is expected to lead to the development of smart home robots, intelligent appliances, and AI-enabled devices, enhancing user experience and driving consumption [2][3] - AI's role in product innovation includes features like intelligent interaction and autonomous learning, which can improve consumer engagement and satisfaction [3][8] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The integration of AI with virtual and augmented reality is creating immersive shopping experiences, such as virtual fitting rooms and travel, which stimulate new consumer demands [3][7] - The shift towards service-oriented and quality-focused consumption is being accelerated by technological advancements, reshaping consumer behavior and market dynamics [4][6] Group 4: Financial and Institutional Support - Financial institutions are encouraged to support AI-driven consumer projects through loans and funding, facilitating the growth of AI applications in the consumer sector [3][5] - Policies such as tax incentives and subsidies are suggested to promote AI research and development, further driving innovation in consumer products [3][5] Group 5: Future Directions and Recommendations - The focus should be on creating a collaborative environment between supply and demand, with an emphasis on new economic sectors like drone logistics and personalized services [5][6] - Establishing a supportive public policy framework is crucial for the successful integration of AI in consumer scenarios, fostering a high-quality smart consumption ecosystem [7][8]

2025年11月12日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 目录 CONTENTS 四、风险因素 十五五转型下的改革政策展望 1个目标，3个问题 于翔 中信证券研究部 政策研究首席分析师 2 一、统一大市场：保持制造业合理比重VS企业盈利能力下降 二、国资转型产投：经济新旧动能转换VS财政资金整体紧张 三、资本市场改革：融资端支持新质生产力VS投资端保障投资者权益 保持制造业合理比重VS企业盈利能力下降 十五五规划建议提出"保持制造业合理比重" ： -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 % 中国 美国 日本 德国 资料来源：Wind，中信证券研究部 中国和其他主要国家制造业增加值占本国GDP的比重 10 15 20 25 30 35 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 % 美国 中国 日本 德国 印度 韩国 资料来源：世界银行，中信证券研究部 名义GDP增速对比 -10 - ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the macroeconomic outlook for China during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing trade dynamics and internal demand trends [4][40]. Core Insights - **Trade Resilience**: Despite ongoing trade frictions, China's exports are expected to remain resilient due to companies actively exploring new markets. The trade surplus is projected to maintain a high level, with an anticipated increase of 22% year-on-year [4][7]. - **Currency Outlook**: The stability of the Renminbi (RMB) is seen as a foundational strength for China's export sector. The RMB is expected to appreciate, potentially reaching 6.8 against the USD by the end of next year [4][37]. - **Internal Demand Shift**: A turning point in domestic demand is anticipated around mid-2026, with economic growth expected to show a pattern of lower growth initially followed by a rebound [4][40]. - **Policy Focus**: The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes building a modern industrial system, with significant efforts directed towards technological innovation and industrial upgrades. The policy shift aims to balance demand-side measures to stimulate internal consumption [4][47]. Trade Dynamics - **US-China Trade Relations**: The trade balance with the US has been negatively impacted by tariffs, with a year-on-year decline of 19.1% in the trade surplus with the US. In contrast, exports to non-US regions have expanded by 17% year-on-year [7][10]. - **Long-term Trade Surplus**: China's trade surplus is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating it could exceed $1 trillion by 2025, despite a declining share of imports from the US [10][8]. - **Historical Context**: Drawing parallels with Japan's trade dynamics post-1986, it is suggested that China may maintain a high trade surplus for an extended period despite trade tensions [10][24]. Currency and Financial Flows - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB has not fully reflected the strong trade surplus in its exchange rate, with a noted appreciation of 2.2% against the USD despite a significant drop in the trade surplus with the US [16][37]. - **Capital Flows**: Since 2022, there has been a notable increase in capital outflows from China, driven by the inversion of interest rate differentials between China and the US. This has led to a significant net outflow in the financial account [20][21]. - **Exporters' Behavior**: There is an estimated $1 trillion in unconverted foreign exchange earnings from exporters, which, if settled, could further support RMB appreciation [29][30]. Economic Growth Projections - **Growth Targets**: Various institutions project China's GDP growth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" to average around 4.8%, with a focus on high-quality development alongside reasonable quantitative growth [46][44]. - **Investment Trends**: Investment demand is weakening, particularly in infrastructure and real estate, with a shift towards optimizing existing assets rather than expanding capacity [53][54]. Policy Implications - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy**: The fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary, with a focus on welfare spending. Monetary policy may see a slight easing, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in response to economic conditions [62][57]. - **Consumer Spending**: The government aims to enhance consumer spending, with a target for service consumption to reach 46.1% of total consumption by 2024, reflecting a shift towards service-oriented economic growth [47][48]. Conclusion - The macroeconomic outlook for China during the "15th Five-Year Plan" indicates a complex interplay of trade resilience, currency dynamics, and internal demand shifts, with significant policy implications for future growth and investment strategies [4][62].

大摩闭门会：新能源、锂电、交运行业更新 20251203_ 原文 2025 年 12 月 03 日 12:36 发言人 00:00 好，各位上午好。今天是 12 月 3 号，欢迎来到摩根士丹利每周三的周期论剑的在线直播。我是张磊 Rachel，基础材料行业的分析师。 发言人 00:09 今天的话我们讨论几个主题，一个是我们供应行业，公用事业和新能源行业的首席伊娃侯，会跟我们聊一 下最近他们对新能源行业近期的一些观点的更新，以及他们前段时间做了一个储能的调研，聊一下这一块 然后接着的话，我们能源化工和电子行业的分析师 jack 吕，会聊一下他们最近对宁德时代的最近的一些观 点，以及整个锂电池产业链的一些市场反馈。然后最后我们交运行业的首席范倩蕾和他们组的泰尼森会聊 一下最近他们对整个交运行业、航空行业最近的一些观点的一个更新。 发言人 00:44 开始之前，我先要帮我和同事们拉一下票，excel 也就是原来的 I 本周五就要结束了，我们非常重视这个投 票，您的支持对我们非常重要。所以麻烦大家在技术材料行业、石油化工、交运公用事业都帮忙支持一下 我们各位同事。另外开始例行，我需要读个 dic 请注意，本次会议仅面 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Energy Sector - **Nuclear Power**: Projects approved will gradually commence operation before the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an expected peak in nuclear power production around 2027-2028, as 10-12 nuclear units are expected to be approved and started each year from 2021 [1][3] - **Solar Power**: Rapid growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with installed capacity reaching 278 GW last year and projected to reach 300 GW this year. However, due to policy impacts, installed capacity may decline to 150-200 GW in 2026, with potential recovery starting in 2027 [1][4] - **Wind Power**: Strong overall demand with annual installed capacity expected to be between 100-120 GW during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, particularly benefiting from offshore wind development plans [1][4] - **Energy Storage**: Rapid development in the independent storage sector, driven by increased renewable energy share, policy support, and stable income sources. Innovations in storage technology and business model changes are key areas to watch [1][5] - **Grid Investment**: Significant increases in grid investment are anticipated, particularly in ultra-high voltage projects, with a projected scale of 25-30 DC and AC lines during the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][6][7] Airport and Duty-Free Industry - **Duty-Free Contracts**: Shanghai and Beijing Capital Airports are set to renew duty-free contracts, allowing foreign companies to participate in bidding, which is expected to enhance profit margins. The impact of bidding results and new contract details on airport profitability is a key focus [2][25][26] - **Profitability Impact**: A 1% increase in actual duty-free margins could lead to a profit increase of approximately RMB 40-50 million for Shanghai Airport and RMB 20 million for Beijing Capital Airport. A 5% increase in per capita consumption could further enhance profits significantly [28] Additional Insights Energy Storage Market - **Demand and Policy Support**: The independent storage market is experiencing strong demand, with local policies in Shanxi Province providing significant support, including exemptions on transformer capacity fees and access to frequency modulation markets [5][8][9] - **Future Growth**: The storage market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% over the next five years, with increasing installation and technological advancements driving this trend [13] Battery and Material Markets - **Battery Installation Forecast**: Battery installation is expected to reach 150 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 50%-100% anticipated in 2026 [10] - **Material Demand**: The storage industry will significantly impact raw material demand, with projections indicating shortages in aluminum and copper due to increased requirements for energy storage systems [21] Aviation Industry - **Impact of Geopolitical Changes**: Recent diplomatic changes between China and Japan have led to a reduction in flights, but the overall impact on the aviation market is expected to be limited, with ticket prices remaining stable [22] Market Valuation - **Shanghai Airport Valuation**: The stock price of Shanghai Airport has been stable, with potential for a significant reaction to new duty-free contracts. Current trading P/E ratios are higher than industry averages, indicating a need for clear signs of consumption recovery for a positive long-term outlook [29][30]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the securities industry in 2025, with a significant increase in profits driven by self-operated businesses, and anticipates continued growth in 2026 due to favorable policies and market conditions [6][15][26]. Section Summaries 1. 2025 Review: Recovery Begins - The securities industry saw a substantial improvement in profitability, with 43 listed brokers achieving a net profit of CNY 1,692.54 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.44% [15]. - The overall revenue for the same period reached CNY 4,216.23 billion, reflecting a 12.85% increase year-on-year [15]. - The recovery is supported by strong performance in brokerage and proprietary trading, with brokerage net income rising by 68% [18]. 2. Incremental Catalysts Expected, Performance Continues to Improve - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a strategic direction for high-quality development in the financial sector, emphasizing the importance of a robust capital market [33]. - There is significant potential for increased market participation from institutional investors and retail investors, as the wealth effect from the capital market is expected to drive demand expansion [44][48]. 3. Comprehensive Performance Recovery, Growth Potential in Light Asset Businesses - The wealth management sector is recovering, with public funds showing high-quality development and increased market activity [18]. - Investment banking activities are also rebounding, particularly in the dual innovation sector, with IPOs and underwriting volumes expected to rise [18]. 4. Industry Structure Optimization: Building a First-Class Investment Bank - The report highlights the acceleration of mergers among leading brokers and the internationalization of Chinese brokers as key strategies for building a first-class investment bank [6][39]. - The integration of mergers and international expansion is seen as crucial for enhancing the competitive landscape of the industry [6][39]. 5. Profit Forecast: Continued ROE Improvement in 2026 - The report predicts that the return on equity (ROE) for the industry will continue to improve, with a projected net profit growth of 13% year-on-year under neutral assumptions for 2026 [6][39]. 6. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Structural Optimization and Alpha Catalysts - Investors are advised to pay attention to brokers benefiting from structural optimization and the recovery of wealth management, such as China International Capital Corporation, Huatai Securities, and CITIC Securities [6][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for copper is cautiously bullish, with arbitrage on hold and a short put option strategy [9] Core Viewpoints - High premiums in US copper are driving up overall copper prices [1] - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, copper demand in various terminal sectors shows structural differentiation, with a multi - polar driven pattern where power is relatively stable and the electronics sector may bring surprises. In 2026, copper demand may only see modest growth [7] - The current high Comex premium, low LME and SHFE copper inventories require attention to the risk of a short squeeze [6] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Futures Market**: On December 3, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 89,100 yuan/ton and closed at 89,210 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 90,070 yuan/ton and closed at 90,760 yuan/ton, up 2.01% from the afternoon close [2] - **Spot Market**: The average spot premium of SMM electrolytic copper was 140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The price range of 1 electrolytic copper was 88,730 - 89,230 yuan/ton. The market's procurement and sales sentiment improved, but the available supply in Shanghai was still tight, supporting the spot premium to continue rising [3] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: ADP data showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs in November 2023, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM services PMI in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the legality of Trump's tariffs, and 9 Japanese companies have sued for tariff refunds [4] - **Mining End**: Glencore plans to restart the Alumbrera project in Q4 2026, aiming for first production in H1 2028. After full - scale operation, it is expected to produce about 75,000 tons of copper, about 317,000 ounces of gold, and about 1,000 tons of molybdenum per year. Glencore also plans to increase its annual copper production to about 1.6 million tons in the next decade [5] - **Smelting and Imports**: In November, Chile's copper exports were 124,422 tons, with 29,112 tons to China. Copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,054,487 tons, with 716,614 tons to China. The Comex premium remains high, and LME and SHFE copper inventories are low [6] - **Consumption**: During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, copper demand in different terminal sectors is structurally differentiated. The power sector is the ballast of demand, and the electronics sector is the fastest - growing. In 2030, copper consumption in the power sector is expected to exceed 8 million tons, and in 2026, copper demand may only see modest growth [7] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,375 tons to 162,150 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons. On December 1, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 159,000 tons, down 14,500 tons from the previous week [8] Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot Premium**: The average premium of SMM 1 copper was 140 yuan/ton, with different premiums for different types of copper [28][29] - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 162,150 tons, SHFE inventory was 97,930 tons, and COMEX inventory was 391,848 tons [30] - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 28,969 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 3.89% [30][31] - **Arbitrage and Other Data**: There are relevant data on spreads, ratios, and import profitability [31]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-03，沪铜主力合约开于 89100元/吨，收于 89210元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.33%，昨日夜盘沪 铜主力合约开于 90，070元/吨，收于 90，760 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨2.01%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价升水40-240元/吨，均价升水140元/吨，较昨日上涨20元。1#电 解铜价格区间为88730-89230元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约于88700-89000元区间震荡，临近午盘冲高至 89150元附近。市场采销情绪均较前期改善，但上海地区可流通货源依旧偏紧，支撑现货升水于高位继 续攀升。早盘少数升水20元货源被迅速消化，主流交易时段多数平水铜升水集中在80-130元。常州地区 虽有压价，但成交仍维持在升水60元左右。好铜如金豚大板升水报至200元，金川大板则高达280-300 元，供应持续紧张。跨月价差维持C80-C40结构，当月进口亏损扩大至近1500元。预计今日现货升水将 延续坚挺格局，实际成交情况仍有待观察。 重 ...

记者 张骏 中共上海市委昨天上午举行专题协商座谈会，围绕上海市"十五五"规划编制有关情况，听取各民主 党派市委、市工商联负责人和无党派人士代表的意见建议。中共上海市委书记陈吉宁主持会议并指出， 要深入学习贯彻中共二十届四中全会和习近平总书记考察上海重要讲话精神，锚定"十五五"时期上海经 济社会发展重大问题积极建言献策，推动全社会形成奋进新征程、建功新时代的强大合力，为上海加快 建成具有世界影响力的社会主义现代化国际大都市贡献更多智慧和力量。 中共上海市委常委吴伟、陈通、华源出席座谈会。 座谈会上，民革市委会主委徐毅松、民盟市委会主委陈群、民建市委会主委解冬、民进市委会主委 黄震、九三学社市委会主委钱锋、台盟市委会主委刘艳、市工商联主席寿子琪、农工党市委会专职副主 委姚捷、致公党市委会专职副主委刘新宇、无党派人士代表俞飚围绕主题先后发言，就"十五五"时期聚 焦建设"五个中心"重要使命，更好发挥国家重大战略牵引作用，服务统一大市场建设，优化区域营商环 境，前瞻谋划公共服务资源配置布局，加大投资于人力度，加快绿色低碳转型，构建现代化产业体系、 培育发展新质生产力等，提出有针对性的意见建议。陈吉宁认真倾听记录，同大家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Committee has introduced the "15th Five-Year Plan" aimed at establishing a modern socialist province, building on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and addressing new challenges and opportunities in the coming years [2][3]. Summary by Sections Overall Economic Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen significant achievements, with 8 out of 21 key indicators completed ahead of schedule and 13 meeting expectations, laying a strong foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][3]. Key Objectives and Tasks - The "15th Five-Year Plan" includes 14 sections and 60 articles, focusing on the guiding ideology, main goals, and key tasks for the province's development, reflecting central requirements and local characteristics [3][4]. Strategic Focus Areas - The plan emphasizes 11 key tasks for economic and social development, including the construction of a modern industrial system, which is deemed essential for the province's growth [5][6]. - Specific initiatives include enhancing traditional industries and fostering new ones, with a focus on green and high-quality development [5][6]. Innovation and Technology - The plan highlights the importance of technological innovation, aiming to establish Shandong as a leading innovative province and integrate technology with industry [6][7]. Open Economy - The strategy aims to optimize the open economy framework, enhancing international competitiveness and expanding foreign trade and investment [7][8]. Regional Coordination - The plan addresses regional development, promoting coordinated growth across urban areas and implementing major national strategies [8][9]. Social Welfare and Employment - The plan prioritizes social welfare, with a focus on employment and improving living standards, aiming for a sustainable and equitable social security system [9].