Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index decreased by 0.47% on July 22, closing at 97.392, indicating a weakening of the dollar against major currencies [1] Currency Exchange Rates - 1 Euro was exchanged for 1.1747 USD, up from 1.1693 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 British Pound was exchanged for 1.3527 USD, up from 1.3488 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 146.57 Japanese Yen, down from 147.34 Yen the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 0.7928 Swiss Francs, down from 0.7983 Francs the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 1.3610 Canadian Dollars, down from 1.3681 Dollars the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 9.5151 Swedish Krona, down from 9.5817 Krona the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index experienced a decline of 0.46%, closing at 97.403 points, indicating a significant downward trend in the dollar's value during the trading session [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ICE Dollar Index traded within a range of 97.991 to 97.305 points throughout the day, showing volatility in the market [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index also fell by 0.39%, ending at 1195.82 points, with a trading range of 1202.13 to 1194.92 points [1] Group 2: Trading Activity - After 22:00 Beijing time, the ICE Dollar Index showed a notable downward movement, followed by continued low-level fluctuations post-midnight [1]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index experienced a decline of 0.5%, reaching a value of 97.3447 [1] - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate increased by 0.5%, with a current rate of 1.1754 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to be in a volatile pattern. ICE US cotton fell 0.86% to 68.09 cents per pound on Monday, and CF509 decreased 0.8% to 14,185 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 21,871 lots to 558,900 lots. While the low - inventory situation remains unchanged, the upward driving force has weakened. Considering the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, it is difficult for prices to rise continuously. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options with higher prices and buy out - of - the - money put options with lower prices [1]. - Sugar is also expected to be volatile. In June, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Due to concerns about over - production, raw sugar prices are under pressure. Domestically, sugar producers in the production areas are actively selling to reduce inventory, and the influence of processed sugar is gradually increasing. In the short term, prices lack a clear direction, and in the medium term, they depend on the pace and intensity of imported sugar [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 9 - 1 spread is 195 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous period. The main contract basis is 1,404 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,480 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,589 yuan per ton, an increase of 81 yuan [2]. - For sugar, the 9 - 1 spread is 170 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan. The main contract basis is 241 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,501, a decrease of 31 from the previous trading day, with 223 valid forecasts [3]. - On July 21, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,480 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,650 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,563 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,803 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 21, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, a decrease of 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the sugar spot prices were 6,060 yuan per ton in Nanning, an increase of 10 yuan, and 6,080 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 21,437, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, 9 - 1 spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China's cotton price index, with data sources from Wind and the research institute [6][11][13][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many awards [18]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, suggesting a short - term bullish outlook for both metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: New York gold has again exceeded the $3400 mark, and Shanghai gold has exceeded the 785 yuan mark. Since July, the US dollar index has rebounded and showed a high - level decline yesterday, facing pressure at the 60 - day moving average [3]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term is sideways, and intraday is sideways - bullish. The overall reference view is short - term bullish [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: The decline of the US dollar is beneficial to the gold price. As the Fed's interest - rate meeting on July 30 and the important US tariff time point on August 1 approach, market risk appetite may decline. Technically, gold has broken through the sideways high since July with strong upward momentum [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, Shanghai copper increased positions and rose, with the main contract price exceeding the 79,000 yuan mark. On Monday, it continued to increase positions and rise during the day, approaching the 80,000 yuan mark and maintaining a strong performance at night. The monthly spread of Shanghai copper has been weakening, in line with the macro - market feature of near - term weakness and far - term strength [5]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term is upward, and intraday is upward. The overall reference view is short - term bullish [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the improvement of domestic and international macro - economies has pushed up the copper price. Good US economic data last Thursday and the upcoming release of a growth - stabilization plan for ten key industries in China have led to a general rise in commodities. On the industrial level, with the continuous emergence of domestic macro - positives, industrial expectations may improve, and the inventory of electrolytic copper decreased significantly on Monday [1][5].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a bullish trend, supported by national empowerment, the enhancement of its international financial center status, and an influx of incremental capital, with expectations for continued strength in the second half of the year [1] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile in the third quarter, but pressure factors are expected to be lower than anticipated, potentially leading to an earlier market rally [1] - The long-term macro factors supporting the Hong Kong stock market's liquidity have not changed, although there may be marginal tightening pressures in the third quarter due to various factors [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market is currently at a relatively low absolute valuation level, with historical valuation percentiles in the upper middle range [2] - The market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, driven by a resonance between fundamentals and capital flows, with both domestic and foreign investors forming a bullish consensus on Chinese assets [2] - There is a positive sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market, with continuous inflows of southbound capital and no significant outflows observed so far this year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise to 4.8%-5.0% in the second half of 2025 due to increased net supply and other economic factors [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Recent data indicates that while the U.S. dollar has rebounded, short-term depreciation pressure has not been fully released [1] - The CBO estimates that the "Great Beautiful Act" will increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034 [1] - Following the resolution of U.S. debt issues, net issuance of debt may reach around $1.25 trillion between July and September, contributing to upward pressure on Treasury yields [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The U.S. dollar experienced a 13% depreciation during its lowest point this year, which is not particularly significant compared to historical depreciation cycles since 2000 [1] - The report anticipates that the increase in net supply of U.S. Treasuries will lead to a rise in the term premium by 50-60 basis points [1] - It is projected that the U.S. dollar index may decline by 2-3 points as a result of these economic dynamics [1]

智通财经7月21日电，美元指数日内下跌0.60%，现报97.90。 ...

美元指数日内下跌0.50%，现报97.90。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Domestic refined nickel supply is ample, with continuous accumulation of nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports. On the demand side, the stainless - steel industry's demand is weak due to the sluggish real - estate market, and export tariff policies further suppress demand. In the short term, the fundamentals are unlikely to change significantly, and the price of Shanghai nickel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance - On July 17, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract 2508 was 119,700 yuan/ton, the highest price during the session was 120,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 119,270 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 119,880 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton or 0.6% [2] 1.2 Futures Market Data | Contract Name | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Trading Volume | Amplitude % | Open Interest | Daily Increase in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel 2508 | 119,880 | -720 | -0.60 | 85,829 | 0.75 | 53,426 | -702 | | Shanghai Nickel 2509 | 119,970 | -740 | -0.61 | 56,494 | 0.74 | 74,948 | 3147 | [5] 1.3 Spot Market Data - On July 17, the average spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1650 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 121,500 yuan/ton, down 1600 yuan/ton; the average spot price of imported nickel was 119,800 yuan/ton, down 1650 yuan/ton [6] Influence Factor Analysis - News: In June, the US PPI year - on - year dropped to 2.3% (lower than expected), and Fed Governor Waller hinted at a possible rate cut in July. The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.49% to 98.77, exerting slight pressure on non - ferrous metals. - Supply: The rainy season in the Philippines has intensified the shortage of nickel ore, but imported ore from Indonesia has filled the gap, and ore prices have slightly declined. In July, the domestic refined nickel production plan increased by 1.25% month - on - month to 32,000 tons, with supply remaining at a high level. - Demand: Affected by the sluggish real - estate market, the overall demand of the stainless - steel industry is weak, with high inventory. Steel mills have low willingness to purchase nickel - iron. The export tariff policy has further suppressed the export demand of stainless - steel products, affecting the overall market performance [9]