Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is witnessing a shift towards "megawatt supercharging" and "intelligent driving equality," with companies like BYD, Huawei, and Zeekr entering the market. However, challenges remain in implementing megawatt-level charging stations due to high costs and long construction periods [2][3]. Company Developments - CATL reported a revenue of 84.705 billion yuan in Q1 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.18%, with a net profit of 13.963 billion yuan, up 32.85%. The gross margin was 24.4%, showing growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3]. - CATL launched the "Shenxing" ultra-fast charging battery in 2023, the first large-scale production battery using lithium iron phosphate material, capable of 4C charging. In 2024, the "Shenxing PLUS" battery will achieve an equivalent charging rate of 6C, with peak rates reaching 12C to 15C [2]. Market Trends - The demand for energy storage batteries is increasing, particularly in emerging markets like the Middle East and Australia, driven by renewable energy and AI data centers. CATL has secured significant energy storage projects in these regions [3]. - CATL plans to build 1,000 battery swap stations this year and has formed partnerships with Sinopec, NIO, and Didi to enhance battery swapping services, which are seen as a cost-effective solution for consumers [2]. Competitive Landscape - The U.S. market for energy storage primarily relies on lithium iron phosphate batteries, with Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers like LG and Panasonic expected to ramp up production only after 2026. The new tariffs are shared between energy storage companies and U.S. end-users [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][5][7] Core Views - The company’s core business is developing steadily, and the impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US is limited [5][10] - The growth potential of the power and energy storage battery business is promising, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability due to increased self-supply ratios of consumer battery cells [5][10] - The company is expanding its customer base in the power battery sector, with industry-leading fast-charging capabilities for lithium iron phosphate batteries [10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 55,458 million, RMB 64,609 million, and RMB 74,948 million respectively, reflecting growth rates of 15.9%, 16.5%, and 16.0% [9][11] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 0.89, RMB 1.21, and RMB 1.47, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20.7, 15.2, and 12.6 [7][9] - The company’s net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 1,645 million for 2024, RMB 2,236 million for 2025, and RMB 2,708 million for 2026, indicating growth rates of 52.9%, 35.9%, and 21.1% respectively [9][11] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance of -11.7% over the past month and -22.4% year-to-date, while the Shenzhen Composite Index has performed better [3][4] - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately RMB 34,357.38 million, with a circulating share count of 1,711.69 million [4][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may face short - term consolidation [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to multiple factors, soybean meal may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn futures price will be range - bound, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3]. - **Copper**: Maintain a tactical defense and focus on the monthly K - line pattern [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may show a weak - side oscillatory trend, and short positions can be taken on rallies [5][6]. - **Steel**: With the gradual digestion of macro - negative factors, a strategy of buying on dips at low levels is recommended for steel [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to ample supply, coking coal and coke may have a limited - space, weak - side oscillatory rebound at low levels [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2505 contract will be range - bound in the short term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9]. - **Crude Oil**: After the sharp decline of the WTI main contract, pay attention to the rebound near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/ton for the INE crude oil main contract [10]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [11]. - **PVC**: With a slight improvement in macro - sentiment, the futures price may oscillate at a low level [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures market is expected to show a short - term weak - side oscillatory trend [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: During the current period, it is the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,300 yuan/ton, Tianjin 3,720 yuan/ton, Rizhao 3,440 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 3,220 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - U.S. tariff policy has caused market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly complete, and the export outlook for U.S. soybeans is pessimistic. The supply of domestic soybean meal is still tight, and Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in mid - to late April. The downstream inventory is low, and the trading volume has increased slightly [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,090 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and 2,290 yuan/ton in North China and the Huanghuai region [3]. - **Market Analysis**: U.S. tariff hikes have increased the cost of corn imports. The U.S. corn market is oscillating strongly. In China, the supply pressure has eased, and the demand is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 74,430 - 74,670 yuan, down 555 yuan, with a discount of 30 - a premium of 20 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Global "irrational" tariffs have caused turmoil in overseas capital markets. The Fed's stance reflects uncertainty. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply problem has not been resolved, and the copper price is in a state of resonance [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 70,750 yuan/ton (+250), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 69,350 yuan/ton (+250) [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is decreasing. Supply is increasing, and demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive up prices. The inventory is increasing, and the price has declined synchronously [5][6]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.0712 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the contango structure is weakening. The cost is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is affected by both macro - policy expectations and fundamentals [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.4756 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.1713 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is ample, demand is weak, inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 98.35, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 764 yuan [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are intertwined. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is mixed. The U.S. tariff policy has restricted the upward movement of prices [9]. Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: Not provided in the report. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" is fading. OPEC is increasing production, but global demand is under pressure due to trade wars and geopolitical uncertainties [10]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided in the report. - **Market Analysis**: U.S. tariffs have hit China's tire and automobile exports. The global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the demand may be severely restricted [11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,840 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,080 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The production start - up rate has decreased. Demand remains weak, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,446.88 yuan/ton, a 3.12 - yuan decrease [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is mediocre. The futures market is under pressure [13].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is gradually recovering, with the overall A-share market down by 4.31%. The Sci-Tech 50, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 indices showed relative resilience, while the CSI 1000, micro-cap stocks, and ChiNext index led the decline. In terms of sector performance, consumer and financial real estate sectors were more resilient, while pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors faced declines [1][14]. - The report highlights the "counter-tariff" measures and the determination to stabilize the market in response to the U.S. tariffs. It notes that the Chinese government has taken rapid countermeasures to maintain a strong stance against U.S. tariff threats, which are characterized as "digital games" [3][33]. - The report emphasizes that the Chinese assets exhibit strong endogenous stability, and the impact of external market shocks may favor the return of foreign capital. It suggests that the unpredictability of U.S. tariffs should lead to a stable outlook rather than a reactive one [5][9]. Group 2 - The report discusses the significant market fluctuations following the announcement of "counter-tariffs," leading to a "three-kill" scenario in U.S. stocks, bonds, and currency. The S&P 500 index fell sharply, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a rapid decline before rebounding after the announcement of a 90-day delay in tariff implementation [4][42]. - The report outlines the measures taken by the "national team" to stabilize the market, including increased holdings in ETFs such as the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and others. The report notes that these actions are part of a broader strategy to support the capital market and restore investor confidence [3][50]. - The report identifies key investment directions, including domestic demand, independent innovation, countermeasures, the Belt and Road Initiative, dividends, and gold as a hedge against uncertainty. It emphasizes the importance of enhancing domestic circulation to mitigate the impact of export fluctuations [5][9].

智通财经APP获悉，当地时间4月11日晚，美国海关与边境保护局宣布，联邦政府已同意对智能手机、 电脑、芯片等电子产品免除所谓"对等关税"。分析人士指出，该措施可能会在一定程度上缓解美国消费 者面临的涨价压力，同时让包括苹果(AAPL.US)、英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的科技巨头松了一口气。 同样重要的是对半导体制造设备的新豁免，包括阿斯麦(ASML.US)、日本东京电子(Tokyo Electron)等企 业生产的半导体制造设备。这些设备是建造芯片工厂的关键设备，构成了此类工厂数十亿美元造价的主 要部分。 投行Wedbush的分析师Daniel Ives在上周六的一份研报中表示："美国科技行业的声量很大。尽管白宫内 部最初强烈反对豁免，但最终认识到了现实情况。" 卢特尼克表示："这不是永久性的豁免。(特朗普)只是在澄清，这些不是各国可以通过谈判解决的。这 些都是事关国家安全的东西，我们需要在美国制造。"根据卢特尼克的说法，被排除在外的设备，如智 能手机、电脑以及其他电子产品，可能会被包括在特朗普即将对半导体征收的关税范围内。他还还强 调，对半导体征收关税是将这些电子产品的制造业带回美国的努力的一部分。 苹果 ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei average stock index experienced significant volatility influenced by the Trump administration's stance on "reciprocal tariffs" [1][2] - The upcoming negotiations between Japan and the US regarding tariffs are generating mixed market sentiments, with expectations for progress alongside concerns about potential yen appreciation impacting corporate performance [1][4] - Analysts warn that if the yen appreciates rapidly, it could lead to a decline in corporate earnings, raising fears of a "double bottom" scenario in the Japanese stock market [1][2][8] Group 2 - The US government aims to protect domestic manufacturing through reciprocal tariffs, with currency manipulation by Japan and China being a critical issue in negotiations [6][7] - Analysts estimate that a 1 yen appreciation could reduce overall profits in the Japanese stock market by approximately 0.4%, with a 5 yen appreciation potentially leading to a 2% decline in earnings [7] - The Bank of America Securities notes that the impact of yen appreciation on corporate performance is diminishing due to increased local production and sales by Japanese companies [8] Group 3 - Key support levels for the Nikkei average stock index are identified, with a significant threshold at approximately 39,900 points based on a price-to-book ratio (PBR) of 1.15 [10] - If the index falls below this level, the next critical support could be around 30,420 points, calculated from a recent high, indicating potential for sustained market weakness [11] - Historical context suggests that a drop to around 27,920 points, where Warren Buffett previously invested, could signify a return to previous market expectations for Japan's economic growth and structural reforms [11]

日本股市，大幅上涨！ 今日，亚太市场多数上涨，日经225指数一度涨超700点，盘中涨幅超过2%。当天，日本首相石破茂表 示，目前没有考虑对美采取报复性关税措施。石破茂称，日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正本周将作为首席贸易 谈判代表首次访问美国，启动与美国的贸易谈判。 同日，日本央行行长植田和男表示，由于美国的关税政策，全球和日本国内经济的不确定性急剧上升。日 本央行将从可持续实现2%通胀目标的角度出发，审视经济、物价和金融发展的同时，适当引导货币政 策。 高盛分析师表示，如果日元对美元汇率升至130，日本持续通胀的前景变得黯淡，日本央行可能会考虑暂 停加息。 另据最新消息，花旗将日本股市评级从"减持"上调至"增持"。 日本股市走强 日本股市今日大幅走强，日经225指数盘中一度涨超700点。截至收盘时，日经225指数上涨近400点，涨 幅为1.18%。特朗普政府宣布将智能手机排除在"对等关税"对象之外，缓解了相关行业受影响的担忧，这 也支撑了日本股市。 九州金融集团涨近4%，南都银行、名古屋银行涨近3%，三井住友金融集团涨近2%。电子零件制造商 TDK（东电化）涨超4%，芯片测试设备制造商爱德万测试涨幅接近5%，为iP ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the 16th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, highlighting the shift from tariffs as a primary source of government revenue to income taxes, and the current challenges faced by the Trump administration in addressing fiscal deficits and national debt [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Challenges - The 16th Amendment marked a significant change in U.S. fiscal policy, transitioning from tariffs, which accounted for 40-60% of government revenue in the late 19th century, to income taxes [1][2]. - Trump's administration is attempting to reverse this trend by proposing to generate revenue through tariffs, aiming to utilize tens of billions of dollars to fund tax cuts and reduce government debt [2][3]. - The projected extension of personal income tax cuts by 4.5 trillion dollars over ten years raises concerns about the lack of clear funding sources, as the U.S. national debt has reached approximately 36 trillion dollars, with interest payments exceeding defense spending [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariff Policies - While tariffs could potentially increase revenue, estimates from the Tax Foundation suggest that the revenue may only reach 2.9 trillion dollars, less than half of expectations, due to companies taking measures to avoid tariffs [3]. - The global stock market's decline signals that the era of relying on tariffs as a core economic strategy is no longer viable, as the existing global supply chain is unprepared for price increases resulting from tariffs [3][4]. - The article reflects a nostalgic sentiment for past economic policies, referencing Alexander Hamilton's advocacy for protective tariffs, but notes that the optimal tax system of the early U.S. is not applicable today [3]. Group 3: Historical Lessons and Future Outlook - The article cites former President McKinley, known as the "Tariff King," who later regretted high tariff policies, realizing that U.S. manufacturing needed access to international markets for growth [4]. - The current economic situation, characterized by unsustainable debt growth and declining industrial strength, suggests that nostalgia for past policies may not provide effective solutions for contemporary challenges [4].

中中国国从从来来不不吃吃这这一一套套！！ 22002255年年44月月77日日--22002255年年44月月1111日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周全球市场因对等关税的超预期和暂缓而波动率飙升。中美关税战升级，中国强硬反制，政 策积极托底市场。本周五，新华社更是明确发声"停止极限施压、胡作非为！中国从来不吃这一 套！"当周，A股、港股极限承压，走势好于预期，境内债市表现较好，黄金持续创新高。具体来 看，本周市场有以下几个重要方面： 01 本周一受"对等关税"冲击，A股和港股市场显著下跌，后在国内政策积极发力下，市场止跌 逐渐回升，但全周依然呈下跌态势，A股下跌幅度整体小于港股。市场虽未能呈现"V"型修复 态势，但沪深两市日均成交金额相比上一周显著放大。行业上来看，4月7日当天，农林牧 渔、食品饮料和银行最抗跌；农林牧渔也是4月8日至4月11日间，伴随市场止跌回升时整体 涨幅最高的行业。 02 债市方面，本周资金面均衡偏松，债券市场整体表现较好，利率债整体上涨，短债表现较好 与资金面偏松有关，长债先反映关税压力大幅下行，随着利率接近前低，有一定调整压力； 信用债整体上涨；国债期货同步上涨。 03 商品方面， ...

Core Insights - 中银航空租赁 (02588) reported significant year-on-year growth in transactions for Q1 2025, with a record-high order book size, indicating strong operational performance and potential for long-term value [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q1 2025, the company executed 158 transactions compared to 54 in Q1 2024, including the delivery of 11 aircraft (up by 6 aircraft year-on-year) and commitments to purchase 125 new aircraft [2]. - The total fleet size increased by 15 aircraft year-on-year to 442, while the order book grew by 117 aircraft year-on-year to 339, marking a historical high [2]. - The company is expected to see an improvement in gross rental yield and stable net rental yield due to enhanced delivery rates and rising aircraft values [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on global aviation demand is expected to be manageable, as the company has a strong fleet structure that can withstand uncertainties [3]. - The average age of the company's fleet is 5.1 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.9 years and a utilization rate of 100%, indicating operational efficiency [3]. - The company has minimized exposure to Chinese airlines, with only 19% of its business related to this segment as of the end of 2024, and no plans to deliver aircraft from the U.S. to Chinese airlines before the end of 2026 [3].