Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Domestic refined nickel supply is ample, with continuous accumulation of nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports. On the demand side, the stainless - steel industry's demand is weak due to the sluggish real - estate market, and export tariff policies further suppress demand. In the short term, the fundamentals are unlikely to change significantly, and the price of Shanghai nickel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance - On July 17, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract 2508 was 119,700 yuan/ton, the highest price during the session was 120,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 119,270 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 119,880 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton or 0.6% [2] 1.2 Futures Market Data | Contract Name | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Trading Volume | Amplitude % | Open Interest | Daily Increase in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel 2508 | 119,880 | -720 | -0.60 | 85,829 | 0.75 | 53,426 | -702 | | Shanghai Nickel 2509 | 119,970 | -740 | -0.61 | 56,494 | 0.74 | 74,948 | 3147 | [5] 1.3 Spot Market Data - On July 17, the average spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1650 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 121,500 yuan/ton, down 1600 yuan/ton; the average spot price of imported nickel was 119,800 yuan/ton, down 1650 yuan/ton [6] Influence Factor Analysis - News: In June, the US PPI year - on - year dropped to 2.3% (lower than expected), and Fed Governor Waller hinted at a possible rate cut in July. The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.49% to 98.77, exerting slight pressure on non - ferrous metals. - Supply: The rainy season in the Philippines has intensified the shortage of nickel ore, but imported ore from Indonesia has filled the gap, and ore prices have slightly declined. In July, the domestic refined nickel production plan increased by 1.25% month - on - month to 32,000 tons, with supply remaining at a high level. - Demand: Affected by the sluggish real - estate market, the overall demand of the stainless - steel industry is weak, with high inventory. Steel mills have low willingness to purchase nickel - iron. The export tariff policy has further suppressed the export demand of stainless - steel products, affecting the overall market performance [9]

美元指数DXY短线下挫13点，失守98关口。 ...

美元指数DXY短线下挫13点，失守98关口。欧元兑美元EUR/USD日内涨幅扩大至0.50%，现报1.1681。 美元指数 欧元/美元 ...

美元指数日内跌幅达0.5%，报97.9634。 ...

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, with the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential deepening, and inflation expectations rebounding [1][13] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding situation tightened initially before easing, with the yield curve steepening [1][19] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has rebounded, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile, particularly in sectors like computers, light industry, textiles, pharmaceuticals, communications, and machinery [2][26] - Major indices' volatility has decreased, with most industry volatilities below the 40th historical percentile [2][31] Group 3: Institutional Research - High research activity was noted in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, computers, communications, retail, and automotive [3][14] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with most sectors including non-ferrous metals, real estate, communications, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, machinery, building materials, light industry, electronics, transportation, electricity and utilities, retail, construction, steel, electric new energy, consumer services, and banking seeing upward revisions [3][4][19] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has increased across the A-share market [4][17] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, with overall net selling of A-shares; the buy/sell ratio in sectors like non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers has risen [4][5] - Northbound funds primarily net bought sectors such as military, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, while net selling was observed in computers, electronics, and media [4][33] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to rise, reaching the highest point since March of this year, with net purchases mainly in sectors like computers, machinery, and electronics [5][12] - The proportion of margin financing in sectors such as steel, communications, and home appliances has increased [5][38] Group 7: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in TMT, home appliances, and oil and petrochemicals, while reducing positions in pharmaceuticals, retail, and agriculture [6][45] - New equity fund establishment has significantly increased, with both active and passive equity fund sizes rising [6][50]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.80% to close at 98.64, with a weekly high of 98.95 [1] - USD/CNY rose by 0.10% to 7.1776, while USD/CNH increased by 0.11% to 7.1802 [1] - The Chinese Yuan showed mixed performance against other currencies, with notable declines against EUR, JPY, and AUD [1] Group 2: Economic Data Focus - Key economic data releases include the US Leading Economic Index for June, expected to decline from -0.1% to -0.2% [2] - The Eurozone's manufacturing and services PMI for July are anticipated to improve, while the US manufacturing PMI is expected to drop from 52.9 to 52.5 [2][4] - The US durable goods orders for June are forecasted to decrease significantly by 10.5% after a previous increase of 16.4% [2] Group 3: Central Bank Decisions - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming meeting, with market focus on President Lagarde's comments regarding future monetary policy [3][11] - The market anticipates that the ECB will continue to reference inflation and tariff policies in its future decisions, which could impact the Euro's value [3][11] Group 4: Currency Trends - The USD/CNY is expected to remain stable around 7.18, influenced by the performance of the US Dollar Index [9][10] - The Euro is projected to face downward pressure if the ECB signals potential rate cuts, especially with upcoming PMI data expected to show improvement [11] - The Japanese Yen is under pressure due to inflation data and impending tariffs from the US, with the USD/JPY reaching a high of 149.18 [15]

美元指数DXY向下触及98，日内跌0.40%。 美元指数 ...

美元指数DXY短线走低10点，现报98.11；非美货币小幅走高。 美元指数 ...

短短半年之间，人民币发生巨变——从"对美元从快要跌破7.4"到"一度升至7.16"，从"华尔街投行一 致悲观预测的7.6"到如今的"7.0不是梦"。究竟什么变了？未来汇率的潜在客观走势如何？ 本文来自微信公众号： 秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015） ，作者：Irene Zhou，题图来自：AI生成 6月开始，随着中美谈判缓和，人民币就开启了一轮对美元的升值行情，这也和亚洲货币升值潮同 步，毕竟今年以来美元指数贬值幅度达到10%。 高盛也在7月初高调表示——预计美元/离岸人民币未来三个月将缓慢下探至7.1，年底前降至7.0。一 时间，"保7争6"的预测不绝于耳。 事实上，不确定性依然存在，中国出口情况、美联储降息节奏等将成为主导因素。 美元反击、欧元故事又讲不下去 了 上半年，欧元一度对美元大涨近14%，美国政策的反复和关税大棒的折腾也加剧了这种行情，带有情 绪的欧洲投资者甩卖美元资产，持有大量美元敞口的亚洲出口商开始紧急结汇，加速了美元的贬值。 由于欧元在美元指数中的占比高达近60%，这也导致美元指数节节败退，此前最低跌至96，累计贬值 幅度一度超10%。然而，近期"强欧元"的故事有点讲不下去了。 在特 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a rise of nearly $20, reaching a three-day high of $3369.53 per ounce, with a daily increase of approximately 0.57% [1][2] - COMEX gold futures reported a latest price of $3373.30 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.53% [1][2] Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar index from its late June peak has provided support for gold prices amid mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding policy [3] - There is a prevailing market expectation that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until September, despite some anticipation of two 25 basis point cuts within the year [3] - President Trump's plan to impose new tariffs of up to 20% on multiple economies has increased uncertainty in global trade, enhancing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [3] - The unexpected rise in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to 61.8 indicates improved consumer optimism, which may limit further declines in the dollar [3] - Market focus is expected to shift towards global PMI data later in the week, with potential implications for gold prices depending on the outcomes [3]