美国11月通胀数据意外大幅低于预期，打破了近期通胀"黏性偏强"的走势。数据公布后，金融市场迅速 反应：美股走高、美债收益率下行，市场对美联储降息的押注升温，但不少经济学家却对这份报告的可 靠性产生疑问。 美国劳工统计局(BLS)公布的数据显示，11月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.7%，剔除食品和能源后的 核心CPI同比仅上涨2.6%，双双明显低于市场预期。此前，道琼斯调查显示，经济学家普遍预计11月整 体通胀率为3.1%，核心通胀率为3.0%。 不过，这份数据的统计背景较为特殊。受美国政府停摆影响，11月CPI数据发布时间推迟了8天，更关 键的是，10月CPI数据被直接取消，导致BLS在编制11月通胀时不得不对前期价格走势作出一定的技术 性假设，而这些方法假设并未在报告中得到清晰解释。 Evercore ISI的Krishna Guha进一步分析称，在约三分之一用于计算OER的城市样本中，BLS在多个类别 中"直接填入了零通胀"。他指出，如果这种处理方式引入了下行偏差，美联储在评估住房服务通胀时， 显然不会简单照单全收。 Detmeister还警告称，这种影响可能在未来数月持续存在。他预计，相关偏差可能 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月18日16时17分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.33%，沪银主力收涨3.44%，铂金主力收涨5.32%，钯金主力收涨涨6.99%。逻辑：①核心 逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美欧考虑 停火后向乌克兰提供安全保护，德总理称必要时可对俄军动武。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属 性方面，美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。 鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预 期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到 供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂钯上行，中期高位震荡 ...

随着全球投资者们追踪委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，并等待美国通胀数据，黄金现货价格在历史最高 位附近持稳。近期涨势如虹的铂金则延续迅猛涨势，盘中一度大涨4%，仍然位于2008年以来的最高价 位水平——距离历史最高位相差320美元，众多宏观利好因素推动下的这一轮猛烈涨势有望推动铂金在 长达17年后创下历史新高点位。 黄金与铂金价格近期持续强势，主要受益于地缘政治局势持续升温，以及美联储降息预期之下的宏观流 动性宽松预期，铂族金属相比于黄金则还大幅受益于供需失衡——世界铂金投资协会(WPIC)预计2025 年全球铂金市场将迎来连续三年供给短缺。对于黄金来说，若铂金持续上涨，从这两大贵金属的历史线 性关系来看，有望推动黄金接下来一段时间的持续上涨步伐，这也意味着黄金在2026年涨至华尔街心心 念念的5000美元超级关口并非不可能之事。 现货金条价格在每盎司4,335美元附近交投，周三已上涨约0.8%。它距离10月创下的历史最高点仅仅约 50美元。周四即将公布的通胀数据将被市场密切关注，以寻找美联储进一步降息意愿的线索。 上图显示，金价在创纪录高位附近交投，距离突破历史最高位仅一步之遥，投资者们焦点转向美国数据 与美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook has announced a price increase for certain fixed-price products, with the increase ranging from 4% to 16%, effective December 19 [2][3][4]. Price Increase Details - The price increase affects products from the Forbidden City series, the Chuanfu Chuanxi series, and some platinum products, with specific examples showing a price rise of 15.85% for a butterfly gold bracelet, from 56,800 yuan to 65,800 yuan [10]. - Chow Tai Fook has previously raised prices in March and October of this year, with increases of 10% to 20% in March and 12% to 18% in October [14]. Sales Performance - For the first half of the 2026 fiscal year (April to September 2025), Chow Tai Fook reported a recovery in performance, with same-store sales showing growth. The revenue from fixed-price jewelry increased by 9.3% year-on-year, reaching 11.4 billion HKD, while revenue from priced gold jewelry decreased by 3.8% [14]. - The average selling price of fixed-price gold jewelry rose to 6,300 HKD, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year [15]. Market Context - The international gold price has been on the rise, with domestic gold prices also increasing. As of December 18, multiple brands reported gold prices exceeding 1,350 yuan per gram, with Chow Tai Fook's price at 1,353 yuan per gram [22][23]. - Analysts from various institutions believe that gold prices are likely to continue rising, citing factors such as a cooling labor market and expectations of interest rate cuts [27].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is rising significantly, approaching historical highs, driven by weakening U.S. economic data, renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical risks [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of divergence, with November's unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years, despite job additions exceeding expectations [4]. - The increase in unemployment raises doubts about the feasibility of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, leading to heightened expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - Lower interest rates or expectations of rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, prompting a return of funds to the precious metals market, which is a key driver of rising gold prices [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, have amplified demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as investors worry about energy supply and regional stability [4]. - Historical trends indicate that military or political conflicts involving energy-exporting countries often lead to a premium on gold prices, which is evident in the current market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The simultaneous decline in the U.S. stock market, particularly in the tech sector due to uncertainties around AI investment returns, has shifted some funds towards defensive assets like gold [5]. - The surge in silver and platinum prices indicates a rotation within the precious metals sector, with silver breaking historical highs, reinforcing the consensus on a cyclical strengthening of precious metals [5]. Group 4: Future Uncertainties - Gold bulls face uncertainties, including potential short-term rebounds in the U.S. dollar index and internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy paths [7]. - Upcoming U.S. CPI and PCE inflation data will significantly impact market expectations for monetary policy, with potential for gold price fluctuations based on inflation outcomes [7]. - The current high gold price environment is characterized by both risks and uncertainties, with geopolitical and macroeconomic expectations providing support, but short-term volatility may increase ahead of key data releases [7].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been rising significantly, reaching above $4,348, approaching historical highs, driven by weakening U.S. economic data, renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical risks, highlighting gold's appeal as a safe-haven and inflation hedge [1][7]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of divergence, with November's unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years, despite job additions exceeding expectations. This shift raises concerns about the U.S. economy's "soft landing" and fuels speculation about potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][10]. - The rising unemployment rate questions the justification for maintaining high interest rates, leading to increased market expectations for future rate cuts. In a low-rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, prompting a return of funds to the precious metals market, which is a key driver of rising gold prices [4][10]. Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets. Concerns over energy supply and regional stability due to U.S. actions against sanctioned oil tankers and speculation about potential military actions have intensified investor interest in gold [4][10]. - Historical trends indicate that military or political conflicts involving energy-exporting countries often lead to a premium on gold prices, which has been evident in the current surge [4][10]. Market Dynamics - The simultaneous decline in U.S. stock markets, particularly in the technology sector due to uncertainties surrounding AI investment returns, has reduced the attractiveness of risk assets, leading some investors to shift towards gold and other defensive assets [4][10]. - The rise of silver and platinum alongside gold indicates a notable rotation within the precious metals sector, with silver breaking historical highs, reinforcing market consensus on a cyclical strengthening of precious metals [4][10]. Future Outlook - Gold prices are currently at high levels, with risks and uncertainties coexisting. Short-term support for gold prices is expected from geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, with potential for prices to test historical highs if risk events escalate [12]. - However, volatility may increase ahead of key U.S. CPI and PCE inflation data, which will directly impact market expectations for monetary policy. If inflation exceeds expectations, gold prices may face profit-taking pressure [14].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices have seen an upward adjustment, with most brands increasing their quotes after a period of stabilization, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][4]. Price Adjustments - Lao Miao Gold has increased by 6 yuan per gram, reaching a new high of 1359 yuan per gram, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 1262 yuan per gram, with a price gap of 97 yuan per gram, slightly narrowing by 1 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Detailed quotes from various brands include: - Lao Miao Gold: 1359 yuan/gram (up 6) - Liufu Gold: 1351 yuan/gram (unchanged) - Chow Tai Fook: 1353 yuan/gram (unchanged) - Zhou Liufu: 1312 yuan/gram (up 5) [1][3]. Platinum Price Movement - Platinum jewelry prices have surged significantly, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum price increasing by 32 yuan per gram to 782 yuan per gram, indicating a strong demand in the platinum market [4]. Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has seen a slight increase of 2.6 yuan per gram, with varying prices across different brands: - Cai Bai Gold: 965.70 yuan/gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 941.70 yuan/gram - Chow Tai Fook: 935.20 yuan/gram - Lao Feng Xiang: 949.40 yuan/gram [4]. International Gold Market - The international spot gold price experienced fluctuations, closing at 4337.16 USD per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.05%. As of the latest update, it is reported at 4332.89 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.10% increase [7]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to dovish comments from a potential Federal Reserve chair candidate, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions that support gold prices [7]. - Market analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may implement two interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026, which could continue to bolster gold prices [7].

随着全球投资者们追踪委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，并等待美国通胀数据，黄金现货价格在历史最高位附近持稳。 近期涨势如虹的铂金则延续迅猛涨势，盘中一度大涨4%，仍然位于2008年以来的最高价位水平——距离历史最高位相 差320美元，众多宏观利好因素推动下的这一轮猛烈涨势有望推动铂金在长达17年后创下历史新高点位。 黄金与铂金价格近期持续强势，主要受益于地缘政治局势持续升温，以及美联储降息预期之下的宏观流动性宽松预 期，铂族金属相比于黄金则还大幅受益于供需失衡——世界铂金投资协会(WPIC)预计2025年全球铂金市场将迎来连续 三年供给短缺。对于黄金来说，若铂金持续上涨，从这两大贵金属的历史线性关系来看，有望推动黄金接下来一段时 间的持续上涨步伐，这也意味着黄金在2026年涨至华尔街心心念念的5000美元超级关口并非不可能之事。 现货金条价格在每盎司4,335美元附近交投，周三已上涨约0.8%。它距离10月创下的历史最高点仅仅约50美元。周四即 将公布的通胀数据将被市场密切关注，以寻找美联储进一步降息意愿的线索。 美联储上周重磅宣布的连续三次降息——这对不支付利息的贵金属而言是一大利好，但是对于迈入明年的货币政策宽 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着全球投资者们追踪委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，并等待美国通胀数据，黄金现货价格在历 史最高位附近持稳。近期涨势如虹的铂金则延续迅猛涨势，盘中一度大涨4%，仍然位于2008年以来的最高价位水平 ——距离历史最高位相差320美元，众多宏观利好因素推动下的这一轮猛烈涨势有望推动铂金在长达17年后创下历史新 高点位。 黄金与铂金价格近期持续强势，主要受益于地缘政治局势持续升温，以及美联储降息预期之下的宏观流动性宽松预 期，铂族金属相比于黄金则还大幅受益于供需失衡——世界铂金投资协会(WPIC)预计2025年全球铂金市场将迎来连续 三年供给短缺。对于黄金来说，若铂金持续上涨，从这两大贵金属的历史线性关系来看，有望推动黄金接下来一段时 间的持续上涨步伐，这也意味着黄金在2026年涨至华尔街心心念念的5000美元超级关口并非不可能之事。 荷兰合作银行资深策略师Philip Marey近日指出，为了配合在美国中期选举前刺激经济，美联储预计将在2026年11月前 将利率降至中性水平甚至更低;这位策略师表示，考虑到美联储货币政策传导滞后性，美联储降息举措需要在10月前完 成才能影响11月中期选举，因此在特朗 ...

基本面： 周四（12月18日）亚盘时段，现货黄金继续震荡于本周区间内未能突破并进一步收窄，目前暂交投于4332美元附近。受到美国就业数据疲软、美联储降息预 期重燃以及地缘政治紧张局势升级等多重因素的合力推动，周三（12月17日）现货黄金价格继续攀升，盘中最高曾触及4348.70美元/盎司，收报每盎司4338 美元附近，涨幅接近1%。与此同时，白银价格更是突破66美元大关，创下历史新高66.88美元/盎司，铂金也触及逾17年最高点。 尽管美元周三上涨，但今年迄今已下跌约9.5%，创下2017年以来最大年度跌幅。这一弱势为黄金提供了支撑，因为黄金以美元计价，美元贬值往往推高金 价。美国债市收益率持稳也反映了市场的观望情绪。两年期国债收益率上涨0.8个基点至3.487%，10年期国债收益率基本不变于4.149%。由于联邦政府停摆 43天导致数据延迟，经济指标的可信度降低，美联储不太可能很快降息，联邦基金利率期货显示1月降息概率仅为24%。但整体而言，美联储的鸽派倾向仍 为主导。 技术面： 日线级别，金价昨日录得小实体收盘表现胶着，盘中曾尝试下探4300关口获得支撑并维持短期高位区域报收，暗示市场短期仍有望挑战新高， ...