Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting expectations, with a focus on the real estate and capital markets, as well as supporting small and micro enterprises and foreign trade development [1]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Support - The National Financial Regulatory Administration is enhancing the city real estate financing coordination mechanism, with bank-approved "white list" loans increasing to 6.7 trillion yuan, supporting over 16 million housing units [2]. - In Q1, the real estate loan balance increased by over 750 billion yuan, with new personal housing loans reaching the largest quarterly increase since 2022, and housing rental loans growing by 28% year-on-year [2]. - Future plans include improving financing systems to match new real estate development models and ensuring stable financing for high-quality housing [2]. Group 2: Capital Market Stability - The National Financial Regulatory Administration is leveraging insurance funds as long-term capital to stabilize the stock market, with recent reforms allowing for increased investment from insurance funds [3]. - Specific measures to support the capital market include expanding long-term investment trials for insurance funds, increasing the investment limit by 60 billion yuan, and adjusting risk factors for stock investments [3]. - The administration aims to promote a long-term investment approach by enhancing performance evaluation mechanisms for institutions [3]. Group 3: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - A comprehensive policy package will be introduced to support financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on increasing supply, reducing costs, improving efficiency, and creating a favorable environment [4]. - Efforts will include deepening financing coordination, increasing the availability of loans, and simplifying internal processes to expedite loan approvals [4]. - The administration will also enhance collaboration among monetary, fiscal, industrial, and regulatory policies to create a more conducive development environment [4]. Group 4: Foreign Trade Development Support - The National Financial Regulatory Administration plans to implement policies to support foreign trade development, focusing on financial assistance amid increasing external pressures [5]. - Measures include expanding financing coordination to all foreign trade enterprises and providing tailored services for businesses facing challenges due to tariffs [6]. - The administration will optimize export credit insurance policies and support the transition of foreign trade enterprises to domestic sales, thereby enhancing consumption and expanding domestic demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive financial policy package to stabilize the market and manage expectations, focusing on real estate, stock markets, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade support [1]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Support - The financial regulatory authority is enhancing the real estate financing coordination mechanism, with commercial banks approving loans amounting to 6.7 trillion yuan, supporting over 16 million housing units [2]. - In Q1, the real estate loan balance increased by over 750 billion yuan, with new personal housing loans reaching the largest quarterly increase since 2022, and housing rental loans growing by 28% year-on-year [2]. - Future efforts will include improving financing systems to match new real estate development models and ensuring stable financing for high-quality housing [2]. Group 2: Stock Market Stabilization - The financial regulatory authority is leveraging insurance funds as long-term capital to stabilize the stock market, having increased the investment limit for insurance funds in equity assets [3]. - Upcoming measures include expanding the long-term investment pilot for insurance funds by an additional 60 billion yuan and adjusting solvency regulations to encourage more stock market investments [3]. - A long-term assessment mechanism will be promoted to incentivize institutions for sustained investments [3]. Group 3: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - A comprehensive policy package will be introduced to support financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on increasing supply, reducing costs, improving efficiency, and creating a favorable environment [4]. - Efforts will include enhancing financing coordination, increasing the issuance of first loans and credit loans, and simplifying internal processes for faster loan approvals [4]. - The aim is to ensure that the growth rate of loans to small and micro enterprises exceeds the average growth rate of all loans [4]. Group 4: Foreign Trade Development Support - The financial regulatory authority plans to implement policies to support foreign trade development, expanding financing coordination to all foreign trade enterprises [5][6]. - Measures will include optimizing export credit insurance policies, enhancing export stability, and providing financing guarantees for foreign trade enterprises transitioning to domestic sales [6]. - The goal is to boost consumption and expand domestic demand while supporting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and managing expectations, with a focus on monetary easing and regulatory adjustments to support economic growth and market stability [1][3]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, reducing the average RRR from 6.6% to 6.2% [6]. - The PBOC emphasizes a moderately loose monetary policy characterized by ample liquidity, low financing costs, and a supportive overall monetary environment, having implemented multiple RRR and interest rate cuts in recent years [6]. Financial Regulatory Policies - The National Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce eight incremental policies, including: - Accelerating the development of financing systems compatible with new real estate models to stabilize the real estate market [7]. - Expanding the scope of long-term investment trials for insurance funds to inject more capital into the market [8]. - Adjusting regulatory rules to lower the investment risk factors for insurance companies in the stock market, thereby supporting capital market stability [9]. - Implementing a comprehensive policy package to support financing for small and private enterprises [9]. - Developing policies to support foreign trade and assist businesses affected by tariffs [10]. Capital Market Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to reinforcing market stability and will support the Central Huijin Investment Company in acting as a stabilizing fund, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy tools for capital markets [12]. - The CSRC will also introduce a high-quality development action plan for public funds, focusing on aligning fund performance with investor interests and optimizing fee structures [13]. Economic Outlook - The CSRC asserts that A-share listed companies possess strong resilience and adaptability, with nearly 90% of their revenue derived from domestic markets, indicating a solid foundation for performance growth despite external challenges [14]. - The CSRC emphasizes confidence in the stability and healthy development of the Chinese stock market, supported by reliable economic growth, macro policies, and institutional safeguards [15].

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a package of monetary policy measures to stabilize the market and expectations, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [10][12][14] - The policy interest rate will be lowered by 0.1%, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [10][14][35] - Structural monetary policy tool rates will be reduced by 0.25%, including rates for various special structural tools and re-lending rates for agriculture and small enterprises, from 1.75% to 1.5% [10][14][45] Financial Regulatory Policies - The National Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of financing systems compatible with new real estate development models to stabilize the real estate market [20][21] - There will be an expansion of the pilot scope for long-term investment by insurance funds to introduce more incremental capital into the market [20][22] - Policies will be adjusted to lower the investment risk factors for insurance companies in the stock market, supporting a stable and active capital market [20][23] Support for Enterprises - A comprehensive policy package will be launched to support financing for small and private enterprises, enhancing the financing coordination mechanism to stabilize businesses and the economy [20][24] - Specific measures will be implemented to assist foreign trade development, providing precise services to market entities significantly affected by tariffs [20][25] Capital Market Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will promote high-level opening of the capital market, including expanding institutional access and optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system [20][26][51] - The CSRC will enhance product supply by promoting futures and options for qualified foreign investors and deepening the opening of the bond market [20][26][52] - Measures will be taken to support the return of quality Chinese concept stocks to domestic and Hong Kong markets, while protecting investors' legal rights [20][26][52] Fund Management Reforms - The upcoming public fund reforms will focus on strengthening the alignment of interests between fund managers and investors, optimizing the fee structure, and enhancing the stability of fund investment behavior [20][26][37] - The reforms will also emphasize improving investor service capabilities and promoting the growth of equity funds [20][26][39]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and managing expectations, with a focus on enhancing liquidity and supporting key sectors such as technology and consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China has introduced three categories of measures: quantity-based policies, price-based policies, and structural policies to enhance liquidity and support economic growth [3]. - A reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [5]. - The policy interest rate has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [5]. - The interest rate for structural monetary policy tools has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, including various special structural tool rates and the PSL rate [5]. - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans has been decreased by 0.25 percentage points, reducing monthly payments and total repayment amounts for borrowers [5]. Group 2: Support for Key Sectors - An additional 300 billion yuan has been allocated for re-loans aimed at technological innovation and technological transformation, increasing the total from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [6]. - A new 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-loan" has been established to encourage commercial banks to increase credit support for these sectors [6]. - The quota for agricultural and small business re-loans has been increased by 300 billion yuan, supporting banks in expanding loans to rural, small, and private enterprises [6]. - A risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds has been created, allowing the central bank to provide low-cost re-loan funds to support the issuance of long-term, low-cost bonds for technology innovation [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Support and Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is enhancing regulatory flexibility for companies significantly impacted by tariff policies, particularly in areas like equity pledges and refinancing [7]. - The CSRC is committed to consolidating market stability and improving monitoring and risk assessment mechanisms to respond to external shocks [7]. - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is set to introduce eight incremental policies to support the real estate market, expand insurance fund investments, and promote financing for small and private enterprises [8].

5月7日，国新办新闻发布会举行。中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负 责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 潘功胜 中国人民银行行长 ▶ 央行发布3类10项措施 一是数量型政策，通过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕。二是价格型政策， 下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率。三是结构型政策，创设并加 力实施结构性货币政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 ▶ 降准又降息！下调个人住房公积金贷款利率 ▶ 合并两项支持资本市场货币政策工具额度，共8000亿元 优化两项支持资本市场货币政策工具，将5000亿元证券基金保险公司互换便利，和3000亿元股票增持回 购再贷款两个工具的额度合并，总额度变为8000亿元。 ▶ 外部冲击下国内金融市场保持稳健 今年一季度金融市场表现良好，股市运行总体平稳，交易标准质量较高。在经济基本面改善的带动下， 市场自我矫正能力增强，人民币对美元汇率去年末小幅升值1%左右。 ▶ 央行将创设科技创新债券风险分担工具 潘功胜宣布，将创设科技创新债券风险分担工具。 ▶ 4月以来金融市场展现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall operation of the capital market in China has shown stability and progress in 2023, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) committed to maintaining market stability while enhancing market vitality and functionality [1]. Group 1: Support for Market Stability - The CSRC will fully support the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. in playing its role as a stabilizing fund, enhancing market monitoring and risk assessment to respond to external shocks [2]. - A comprehensive "combination punch" of policy, funding, and expectation countermeasures will be implemented to inject more certainty into the market amid global economic uncertainties [10]. Group 2: Reforms and Regulations - New policies to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext will be introduced, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of the system [3]. - The CSRC will expedite the release of revised regulations on major asset restructuring for listed companies, aiming to strengthen the role of capital markets in mergers and acquisitions [4]. Group 3: Development of Public Funds - An action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds will be released, focusing on aligning the interests of fund managers with investors and enhancing long-term capital inflow into the market [5]. - Measures will be taken to stabilize fund investment behaviors, including setting clear performance benchmarks for each fund product to ensure alignment with their stated objectives [6]. Group 4: Investor Services and Fund Growth - The CSRC will enhance the capabilities of fund companies to serve investors better, including optimizing investment research and risk management resources [7]. - There will be a focus on expanding equity funds, with regulatory guidance to promote the issuance and sales of equity funds that align with national development goals [7]. Group 5: Market Resilience and Adaptability - A-share listed companies demonstrate strong resilience and adaptability, with nearly 90% of their revenue coming from domestic markets, and a reported 3.6% year-on-year growth in net profits [11]. - Companies have successfully diversified their export markets and improved their competitiveness, with over 350 companies announcing share buybacks since April 7, indicating confidence in their value [12]. Group 6: Regulatory Support and Open Market - The CSRC will continue to provide regulatory support to companies affected by external shocks, including optimizing regulatory arrangements for those significantly impacted by tariffs [13]. - The commission is committed to advancing high-level opening-up of the capital market, including the gradual inclusion of RMB trading counters in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Today, at 9 am, a news conference will be held to introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectation management," and it is expected that a series of favorable policies will be released [7]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal is weak, but the downside space is limited. The 09 contract has priced in some negative factors, and there is still trading time left. Attention should be paid to the May USDA supply - demand report, US trade negotiations, and US soybean weather [8]. - Industrial silicon is still bearish in the short term. High inventory pressures will cause futures prices to continue to test the cost line of upstream factories, and the strategy is to short on rallies [11]. - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to decline, and the short - term trend of the futures is weak. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, and the price may have a short - term rebound in mid - to late May [12]. - The trend of styrene is weak. After the May Day holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene declined, and the terminal orders of styrene decreased. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on the futures [13]. Summaries by Directory Pre - market Insights - There will be a news conference at 9 am today by the central bank, CSRC, etc. to introduce financial policies, and favorable policies are expected to be released [7]. Recommended by the Director - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term trend is weak, but the downside space is limited. Negative factors have been priced in, and the 09 contract still has trading time. Attention should be paid to relevant events [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term bearish. High inventory, high weekly production, and weak downstream demand will lead to price declines. The strategy is to short on rallies [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Spot price is expected to decline, and the short - term futures trend is weak. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, and there may be a short - term rebound in mid - to late May [12]. - **Styrene**: Trend is weak. After the holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene declined, and the terminal orders decreased. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities [13]. Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold data is better than expected, and silver is oscillating downward. The trend intensity of gold is 1, and that of silver is - 1 [19][23]. - **Copper**: The spot price is firm, supporting the futures price. The trend intensity is 1 [25][27]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum has insufficient upward momentum, and alumina is consolidating at a low level. The trend intensity of aluminum is - 1, and that of alumina is 0 [28][30]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [31][32]. - **Lead**: Under short - term pressure. The trend intensity is - 1 [34]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are back in a narrow - range oscillation, and the downside and upside spaces are converging. The spot price of stainless steel has declined to repair the basis, and there is still support below. The trend intensity of both is 0 [36][38]. - **Tin**: The price weakened during the holiday. The trend intensity is - 1 [40][44]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The weak state of industrial silicon continues, and the fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak. The trend intensity of both is - 1 [46][48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand surplus continues, and the weak pattern may be difficult to change. The trend intensity is 0 [49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The expectation is volatile, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [52][53]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand expectation is poor, and the prices are fluctuating at a low level. The trend intensity of both is 0 [56][60]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: The prices are dragged down by costs and are trending weakly. The trend intensity of both is - 1 [62][66]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by policy expectations, the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The trend intensity of both is 0 [67][69]. - **Steam Coal**: There is a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [70][72]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0 [73][74]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene is in a positive carry trade for the monthly spread, and the processing margin is expanding. The strategy for PTA is to go long PTA and short SC, and for MEG, it is to go long PTA and short MEG [76][77].

宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+1.13%，创指+1.97%，科创 50+1.39%，北证 50+3.21%，上证 50+0.55%，沪深 300+1.01%， 中证 500+1.93%，中证 1000+2.57%，中证 2000+3.25%，万得微盘+3.27%。两市合计成交 13362 亿，较上 一日+1669 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、央行、证监会等部门 7 日上午 9 时将发声，将介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 2、4 月财新中国服务业 PMI 降至 50.7，为七个月来最低。 3、外交部：中方和欧洲议会决定同步全面取消对相互交往的限制。 资金面：融资额-156.09 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+5.80bp 至 1.7600%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.30bp 至 3.0936%，十年期国债利率+0.03bp 至 1.6282%，信用利差-0.33bp 至 147bp；美国 10 年期利率+3.00bp 至 4.36%，中美利差-2.97bp 至-273bp。 市盈率：沪深 300:12.30，中证 500:28.76，中证 1000:40.98，上 ...

2025 年 05 月 07 日 铅：短期承压 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16700 | -0.83% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1931.5 | -1.30% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 36146 | 1712 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3716 | 901 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 38454 | 2348 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 147990 | 1250 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -15.21 | -5.96 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -80 | -40 | 进口升贴水（美 | 1 ...