Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is advisable to take a predominantly bullish stance, while for stock index options, a long straddle strategy can be used to capture the trending market after the direction is determined [2][8] - The price of Treasury bond futures has declined, and short - term fluctuations may increase [9] - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [10] - The short - term outlook for methanol is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion process and the impact of the overall commodity market on the real estate chain [13] - After a phased rebound, polyolefins may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase in the future [14] - The fundamentals of coking coal continue to deteriorate, and for coke, there are expectations of a price cut [15] - Gold has entered a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [17] - Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state, while nickel may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [20][22] - The overall price of edible oils has declined, while protein meals are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [23][24] - Corn and corn starch may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [25][27] - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may increase, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [28] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - Oil prices dropped on Thursday due to expectations of a possible US - Iran nuclear agreement and an unexpected increase in US crude inventories last week [5] Domestic News - The CSRC will launch a new round of capital market reforms and introduce a package of policies to deepen the reforms of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Industry News - In early May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous period, with different trends in various regions [6] 2. Closing Comments on Major Varieties Financial Futures - Stock index futures declined, but short - term positive factors are present, and the valuation of major domestic indices is low [2][8] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, and short - term fluctuations may intensify due to various factors such as the progress of Sino - US talks and economic data [9] Energy and Chemical - Rubber prices declined, and the market is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory state due to factors such as the progress of the harvest season and inventory [10] - Crude oil prices dropped, and attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][11] - Methanol prices decreased slightly, but the short - term outlook is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash futures are in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion and the impact of the overall market [13] - Polyolefins are in a consolidation phase, and after a phased rebound, they may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase [14] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by macro - favorable factors, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face a cut [15] Metals - Gold and silver prices declined, and they are in a correction phase [17] - Copper, zinc, and other metal prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff negotiations and exchange rates [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [20] - Nickel prices declined slightly, but it may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [22] Agricultural Products - Edible oil prices declined due to factors such as the extension of the US clean fuel tax credit policy and the MPOB report [23] - Protein meal prices are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state due to factors such as the USDA report and Sino - US talks [24] - Corn and corn starch prices may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as imports and demand [25] - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as new orders [27] Shipping Index - The European container shipping line showed a strong performance, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions [28] 3. Daily Views on Varieties The report provides a summary of the views on various varieties, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances [29] 4. Daily Price Changes of Major Varieties The report presents the latest closing prices, price fluctuations, trading volumes, open interests, and other data of various varieties [30]

投资咨询系列报告 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 较上日 较上周 | 单位 | 5月14日 | | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | 原油期货 | Sc | 元/桶 | 479.30 | 8.80 | 1.87% | 11.10 | 2.37% | | | WTI | 美元/桶 | 62.89 | -0.74 | -1.16% | 4.94 | 8.52% | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 65.85 | -0.75 | -1.13% | 4.90 | 8.04% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 3.72 | 1.99 | 115.61% | -3.35 | -47.41% | | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | 0.76 | 2.00 | -161.08% | -3.31 | -81.34% | | | Brent-WTI Sc_C1-C2 | 美元/桶 元/桶 | 2.96 7.30 | ...

1. Overall Investment Ratings for Different Varieties - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Rebound [1] - PP: Rebound [1] - PVC: Rebound [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Pullback [1] 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions ease due to progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to a decline in oil prices. Supply and demand factors, along with inventory changes, also influence the market. Long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, while short - term, holding bullish spread options is recommended [1][4][5]. LPG - Oil price pullbacks and reduced downstream开工率 result in a weak and sideways trend for LPG. The long - term trend is mainly influenced by upstream crude oil, and short - term, holding short positions is advised [1][7][8]. L - There is an expectation of rush exports for terminal plastic products. The market rebounds within a range, but the fundamental pattern is weak, with ample supply limiting the upside [1][11]. PP - Terminal products have an expectation of rush exports, and downstream inventory is concentrated. With tariff easing and oil price declines, PDH开工率 is expected to rise. However, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and the basis weakens, so the rebound is bearish [1][14]. PVC - The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts improves the export outlook for floor products. Low valuations support a short - term rebound, but high开工率 and weak domestic demand limit the upside [1][17]. PX - Planned plant maintenance eases supply pressure. Although demand - side plant maintenance is high and inventory is still relatively high, the fundamentals improve in May, and the short - term trend is bullish [1][19]. PTA/PR - High levels of plant maintenance relieve supply - side pressure. Downstream polyester开工率 remains high, and terminal weaving开工率 recovers. PTA inventory decreases, and the short - term trend is bullish [1][22]. Ethylene Glycol - Supply recovers, and imports exceed expectations despite low arrival volumes. Demand from the polyester sector is strong, and terminal weaving shows signs of improvement, so the short - term trend is bullish [1][26]. Glass - The easing of tariff policies and an increase in social financing growth are countered by lower spot prices and increased warehouse receipts. The market is in a low - level sideways pattern due to weak fundamentals [1][29]. Soda Ash - Although there is some improvement in market sentiment, the fundamentals are weak, with high开工率, ample supply, and high inventory levels. The market is in a sideways pattern [1][31]. Methanol - Supply pressure increases as previously shut - down plants resume production and imports are expected. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The market remains in a loose state, and the rebound is bearish [1][32]. Urea - Supply pressure persists as maintenance plants resume production. Agricultural demand is in a lull, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The short - term trend is bullish, but short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1]. Asphalt - Oil price declines increase the pressure for asphalt to pull back. There are both bullish and bearish factors, such as changes in social inventory and开工率 [1]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 1.55%, Brent down 0.81%, and SC up 1.04% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions ease as Iran is willing to destroy weapons - grade uranium in exchange for US sanctions relief. Iraq plans to reduce exports in May and June, and CPC exports in May are lower than in April. Global oil demand in 2025 is expected to be 1.037 billion barrels per day. Indian fuel demand in April decreased by 3.7%. US commercial crude and strategic reserves increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between $55 - $65 due to factors such as trade wars and new energy impacts. In the short - term, hold bullish spread options, and focus on the range of SC [475 - 490] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,368 yuan/ton, up 1.16% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Oil price upside weakens, and LPG fundamentals are bearish. After the reduction of tariffs on the US, import costs decrease. Downstream PDH开工率 drops, and port inventory rises [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the trend is mainly linked to upstream crude oil and is bearish. Technically, the upward momentum is insufficient, and short positions should be held. Focus on the range of PG [4290 - 4350] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term sales drive inventory reduction, but high pre - sale costs for traders and resistance from end - users to high - priced raw materials limit price increases. Terminal plastic products have an expectation of rush exports, and the market rebounds, but supply is ample [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of L [7300 - 7400] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 53 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **Basic Logic**: With the easing of tariff policies, the supply of polypropylene will be re - evaluated. The supply - demand contradiction will not be effectively resolved, and the market is expected to be in a state of oversupply. Terminal products have an expectation of rush exports, and downstream inventory is concentrated, but the basis weakens [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of PP [7100 - 7230] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **Basic Logic**: In January, a new 500,000 - ton plant of Xinpu Chemical was put into operation, and the utilization rate of production capacity is 79%. The decline in real estate completion area narrows, and downstream开工率 decreases seasonally. PVC exports from January to March 2025 increased by 56% year - on - year. The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts improves the export outlook for floor products, and low valuations support a short - term rebound [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in the short - term. Focus on the range of V [4950 - 5100] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 9, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,472 yuan/ton (+68) [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX plants are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. There are also changes in supply and demand, inventory, and processing spreads. The fundamentals improve in May, and the short - term trend is bullish [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of PX [6820 - 7020] [19]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On May 9, the PTA price in East China was 4,720 yuan/ton (+110), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,582 yuan/ton (+36). The TA9 - 1 spread was 72 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis in East China was 138 yuan/ton (+74) [20][21]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA plants are under high - level maintenance, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester开工率 remains high, and terminal weaving开工率 recovers. PTA inventory decreases, and the short - term trend is bullish [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of TA [4820 - 4950] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On May 9, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,300 yuan/ton (+20), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,218 yuan/ton (-4). The EG6 - 9 spread was 35 yuan/ton (+10), and the basis in East China was 82 yuan/ton (+24) [24][25]. - **Basic Logic**: Recent plant maintenance eases supply pressure. Arrival volumes are low, but imports exceed expectations. Demand from the polyester sector is strong, and terminal weaving shows signs of improvement [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of EG [4450 - 4600] [27]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, the futures market stopped falling and rose, the basis narrowed, and warehouse receipts increased [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of tariff policies and an increase in social financing growth are countered by lower spot prices and increased warehouse receipts. The market is in a low - level sideways pattern due to weak fundamentals [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The price of heavy soda ash increased, the futures market stopped falling and rose, the basis narrowed, warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Although some plants are under maintenance in May, the开工率 remains high, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of SA [1320 - 1350] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,400 yuan/ton (+20), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,227 yuan/ton (+11). The basis in East China was 170 yuan/ton (-4), and the port basis was 173 yuan/ton (+9) [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previously shut - down plants resume production and imports are expected. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The cost support is weak [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of MA [2310 - 2380] [33]. Urea - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure persists as maintenance plants resume production. Agricultural demand is in a lull, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The cost fluctuates slightly, and the short - term trend is bullish [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Oil price declines increase the pressure for asphalt to pull back. There are both bullish and bearish factors, such as changes in social inventory and开工率 [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text.

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from May 7 - 13, 2025 - WTI crude oil rose from $58.07 to $63.67, an increase of $1.72 [3] - BRENT crude oil increased from $61.12 to $66.63, a gain of $1.67 [3] - DUBAI crude oil went up from $61.53 to $65.45, rising by $1.06 [3] - SC decreased by 2.80, OMAN increased by 1.12, and SC - BRT dropped by 1.98 [3] - Domestic gasoline price increased by 30.00, and domestic diesel price rose by 59.00 [3] - Japan naphtha - BRT decreased, Singapore 380 - BRT changed, and上期所FU - BRT decreased by 10.45 [3] -上期所BU - BRT decreased by 11.21, and HH natural gas decreased by 0.030 [3] - BFO increased by 1.06 [3] Group 3: Daily News - BofA: Saudi Aramco can quickly increase oil production at low cost, potentially raising daily output from about 9.4 million barrels to about 12 million barrels within weeks, with an estimated $12 billion increase in operating cash flow for every additional 1 million barrels per day [3] - Trump: Hopes to reach an agreement with Iran; if Iran refuses, will apply maximum pressure and reduce Iranian oil exports to zero [4] - Goldman Sachs: Given recent trade easing, expects an upward risk of about $3 - $4 per barrel for Brent/WTI crude oil prices in the remainder of 2025, with forecasts of $60/$56; 2026 price forecasts are $56/$52 [4] - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 9 was 4.287 million barrels, against an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.494 million barrels [4] - Iran - EU nuclear talks: Iran will hold talks with European parties in Istanbul on Friday. European powers may start the "snap - back sanctions" in August if no substantial agreement is reached [4] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US EIA Data for the Week Ending May 2 - US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day [6] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day [6] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a 0.46% decline [6] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, a 0.15% increase [6] - US EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.6 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.003 million barrels [6] - US EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels, against an expected - 1.271 million barrels and a previous value of 937,000 barrels [6] China's Market Situation - This week, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries declined. China's gasoline and diesel production decreased, with both major and local refineries seeing drops in production and sales rates, and none achieving production - sales balance. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased by over 4%. Major refineries' and local refineries' comprehensive profits rebounded [7] Group 5: Weekly View - After the holiday, oil prices rebounded slightly. With the Anglo - American trade agreement reached, the pessimistic expectations caused by previous tariffs eased, but the China - US tariff negotiation remains unclear. Geopolitically, the fourth round of Iran - US nuclear talks started in Oman [7] - Fundamentally, global oil products seasonally accumulate inventory. US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years. After the oil price decline, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs decreased rapidly, and the BW spread narrowed recently. Global refinery profits are recovering, but refineries are still in the maintenance period. US refinery operating rates recovered first, and US gasoline and diesel inventories are still low. With refining capacity elimination restricting supply, gasoline and diesel cracking has support, and it is expected to maintain a situation of stronger gasoline than diesel in the near term [7] - In China, refinery operating rates decreased slightly, gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly, and refinery profits recovered. In the short term, the rebound in refinery profits, the expected increase in refinery operating rates, the marginal improvement in macro - sentiment, and the decline in US production leading indicators support prices. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran - US talks achieve unexpected progress. In the long - term, crude oil remains in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [7]

股指虽然普涨，但这与金融权重股大多上涨相关，实际上全市场下跌个股家数略微多于上涨个股，其中 光伏设备、贵金属、航天航空、旅游、酒店餐饮等板块跌幅相对稍多。 外围市场方面，隔夜美股三大股指涨跌互现，道指略跌，标普及纳指上涨。周三港股普涨，恒指涨 2.30%，恒生科技指数涨2.13%。 汇市方面，美元指数周二下跌0.80%至100.99点，周三亚欧交易时段进一步下跌约0.20%，跌速明显放 缓。离岸人民币汇率周二冲高回落，最终仍微升0.04%至7.1965，周三傍晚时分回落至7.2060一带。 美元下跌的主要原因是隔夜美国公布的物价指标弱于预期。虽然物价低于预期支持美联储更早降息，但 因中美刚达成关税协议，这使市场对美国经济陷入衰退的忧虑大降，故市场对于美联储降息的预期并未 提前。就最新市场预期来看，目前市场认为美联储更有可能在今年9月降息，而上周之前市场相信会在7 月。 每经记者｜郑步春 每经编辑｜叶峰 继周二高开低走后，周三A股返身上涨。截至收盘，上证综指涨0.86%至3403.95点，深综指、创业板综 指、科创50、北证50分别上涨0.52%、0.50%、0.41%、1.08%。 保险、券商等大金融类个股发 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.33%，报收 66.41 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 1.41%，报收 13330 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 12943 手至 56.98 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14332 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 247 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14384 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日上涨 197 元/吨。国际市场方面，美国 4 月 CPI 数据整体表现平稳，略低于 | | | | 预期，特朗普再催美联储降息，美元指数震荡走弱。另一方面，USDA5 月报公布， | | | | 报告环比调减 2025/26 年度全球棉花产量预期值，调增全球棉花消费量预期值， | | | | 2025/26 年度全球棉花供需宽松格局边际收窄。美棉方面，产量同比或基本持平， | | | | 出口量预计小幅调增，但期末库存预计也会增加，关注后续美棉播种及出口情况。 | | | | 国内 ...

自打进入2025年后，特朗普就曾通过一系列的关税等政策来压制全球经贸发展，使得全球各大国家的经济都陷入膨胀的状态，且纷纷出现 经济蒸发、民生 不济的现象。 尽管此前在中方的强烈反制和一些国家的蠢蠢欲动中，各界都希望美政府能够收敛自己的行为，从而 纠正自己在关税上的错误行动，还全球市场贸易一片 安宁。 中美联合声明究竟包含了哪些信息？美国又做出怎样的让步呢？ 文|陈 编辑|陈 5月10日至11日，中美两国高层在 日内瓦就关税问题展开谈判，并在最后 达成共识、成功取得阶段性实质进展，且于5月12日 共同对外发布联合声明。 尽管此次联合声明让 关税问题逐渐回归常态化，但从中不难看出，中方依旧坚持最开始的态度，反倒是 美国竟在此过程中做出一定让步，从而让中美关系 有所缓解。 期待已久的关税声明 可惜，即便此前各国都有发出对美国的警告和提示，但最后都没有成功让美国有所行动，如今，随着时间的流逝和美经济市场不断挥发且受到 重大创伤、 走投无路后，美终于有所表示。 在过去半个月中，美国政府曾数次喊话中国，希望中国能够就关税问题谈判，然因为美方始终没有拿出自己诚意，使得该谈判也一度没有进展，甚至 中方 始终坚持自己的态度和底 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The US economic growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from 2% to 1%, while inflation expectations have risen from 2.5% to 4.5%[1] - In Q1 2023, the US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%[1] - China's exports to the US fell significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 21% in April 2023[14] Group 2: Future Scenarios of US-China Tariff Negotiations - Optimistic scenario: The US may cancel the suspended 24% tariff, retaining a 10% tariff, leading to a total tariff rate of 30%-50% by 2025[2] - Baseline scenario: If negotiations fail, the US could impose a total tariff rate of approximately 74% by 2025, with an additional 54% tariff on Chinese goods[3] - Pessimistic scenario: The US may reimpose the 24% tariff and increase tariffs further if economic conditions allow, with potential retaliatory measures from China[3] Group 3: US Motivations for Negotiation - The US is under pressure from rising inflation and economic stagnation, prompting a willingness to negotiate tariffs[14] - Strong discontent from the US business community regarding tariffs has influenced the US administration's approach to negotiations[15] - China's non-tariff measures, particularly in rare earth exports, have significantly impacted US negotiations[15] Group 4: China's Response Strategies - China may adopt a "genuine negotiation" approach, where it could agree to certain conditions while leveraging non-tariff measures[3] - Alternatively, if the US is not sincere, China should maintain a firm stance and focus on expanding domestic demand and diversifying trade partnerships[3] - China aims to strengthen international cooperation and oppose unilateral actions from the US[3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations exceeded expectations, with US tariffs on China significantly reduced. The 24% tariff will be suspended for the initial 90 days, 10% will be retained, and the remaining additional tariffs will be cancelled, equivalent to a 115 - percentage - point reduction (24% suspended for 90 days). There is a possibility that the 20% fentanyl tariff will be further reduced [2]. - China's export resilience exceeded expectations. In April, despite a 20% drop in exports to the US, total export volume increased by 9.3% year - on - year, reflecting strong industrial competitiveness. The report predicts that China's economy will stabilize internally in 2025 [2]. - After the significant tariff reduction, the money market is expected to gradually tighten. The DR001 weighted average interest rate is expected to rise to around 1.7% in the next month, and the 1Y national - share inter - bank certificate of deposit rate will reach 1.8%. If the 20% fentanyl tariff is also reduced to 0, the DR001 weighted average interest rate may further rise to around 1.8% [2]. - It is recommended to consider allocating 10Y Treasury bonds at 1.8% and 30Y Treasury bonds at around 2.1%. It is expected that there will be no trend - based opportunities in pure - bond investment in the next two years. For 5Y national - share secondary capital bonds, it is advisable to wait until the yield is above 2.1% [2]. - With the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the positive factors for the bond market may have been exhausted. The report recommends a full - scale defensive strategy for the bond market and suggests paying more attention to stocks and convertible bonds in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content China - US Tariff Negotiation Progress - On May 11, the US and China reached a trade agreement, and on May 12, the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released, with significant tariff reductions [2]. China's Economic Situation - In April, China's total export volume increased by 9.3% year - on - year despite a 20% drop in exports to the US, indicating strong industrial competitiveness. Domestic consumption is steadily recovering, the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, and the stock market is slowly rising [2]. Capital Market and Bond Market Outlook - After the tariff reduction, the money market is expected to tighten. The DR001 weighted average interest rate and 1Y national - share inter - bank certificate of deposit rate are expected to rise. The report advises waiting for appropriate yields when investing in Treasury bonds and secondary capital bonds and adopting a defensive strategy for the bond market [2].

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