交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-03 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，特朗普关于中美关税言论和美豆种植天气良好影响，美豆短期千 点关口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕 探底回升，美豆带动和国内油厂豆粕库存处于低位，进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税 谈判后续交互影响，短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2830（华东），基差-138，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存20.69万吨，上周12.17万吨，环比增加70.01%，去年同期76.06万吨， 同比减少72.8%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean meal market is expected to trade in a range between 2920 and 2980 for M2509. The market is influenced by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations. The short - term outlook is neutral, with both bullish and bearish factors at play [8]. - The soybean market for A2507 is expected to trade in a range between 4040 and 4140. The market is affected by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, the harvest in South America, and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, favorable weather in US soybean - growing areas led to a short - term pullback in the US market. The market is expected to trade above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, while soybean meal inventories remained low. The soybean market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - Reduced profits in the domestic pig - farming industry led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but tight supply supported post - holiday price expectations. With reduced pressure from the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weakening and oscillating pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills and strong spot prices supported short - term price expectations. Uncertainty about the weather in US soybean - growing areas and the outcome of the Sino - US tariff war meant that soybean meal would continue to oscillate in the short term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills, and uncertainty about the weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in May, and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2850, with a basis of - 111, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventories are 20.69 million tons, up 70.01% from last week and down 72.8% from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 41, indicating a premium to futures. Oil mill soybean inventories are 560.63 million tons, down 4.46% from last week and up 24.44% from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main players increased, but funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The U.S. soybeans are fluctuating narrowly, oscillating strongly above the 1000-point mark in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in the U.S. soybean-producing areas. Domestic soybean meal has rebounded with fluctuations, driven by U.S. soybeans and the low inventory of domestic oil mills, but the increase in imported soybeans arriving in May and the decline in spot prices limit the rebound space. The increase in imported Brazilian soybeans arriving and the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations interact, causing it to return to a range-bound pattern in the short term [8]. - Domestic soybeans are oscillating downward, affected by the increase in imported soybeans arriving and the expected increase in production of new-season domestic soybeans. However, the cost-effectiveness advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price bottom. In the short term, it is affected by the interaction between the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans arriving [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No information provided 2. Recent News - The Sino-US tariff negotiation reached a short-term agreement, which is beneficial for U.S. soybeans. However, the good planting weather in the U.S. soybean-producing areas recently led to a short-term decline after the U.S. soybean futures market rose. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000-point mark, awaiting further guidance on U.S. soybean planting, imported soybeans arriving, and the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. In the short term, the soybean products returned to an oscillating pattern due to the outcome of the Sino-US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig farming profits led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post-festival price expectation. Coupled with the weakening pressure of the Sino-US tariff war, soybean meal entered a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supported the short-term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the U.S. soybean-producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino-US tariff war. Soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the final South American soybean yield and the subsequent Sino-US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely to Rise**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans arriving; low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal; uncertainties in the weather of the U.S. soybean-producing areas [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: The total volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest continues [13]. Soybeans - **Likely to Rise**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [14]. - **Likely to Fall**: The expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest continues, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in production of new-season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybean products [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal Transaction Data**: From May 16th to May 27th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3000 - 3098 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 8.69 - 88.95 tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2420 - 2540 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small, mostly below 0.22 tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually narrowed [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From May 19th to May 27th, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybeans in Jiamusi remained at 4180 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2860 - 2890 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From May 15th to May 27th, the soybean warehouse receipts showed a downward trend, while the soybean meal warehouse receipts decreased significantly on May 23rd and continued to decline thereafter [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show that the total supply and demand of soybeans are generally increasing, and the inventory consumption ratio fluctuates within a certain range [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025, including the sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod-setting rate, leaf-falling rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply and demand reports from November 2024 to May 2025 show changes in the harvest area, yield per unit, production, ending stocks, exports, and crushing volume of soybeans in the United States, as well as the production of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina [41]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in soybean meal have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US soybean futures market was closed for Memorial Day. The short - term trend of US soybeans is a strong - side oscillation, waiting for further guidance from the follow - up Sino - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybean meal oscillated and closed higher, driven by US soybeans and the low inventory of domestic oil mills, but the increase in the arrival of imported soybeans in May and the decline in spot prices limited the rebound space. The short - term trend will return to the range - bound pattern. The expected trading range for soybean meal M2509 is between 2920 and 2980 [8]. - Domestic soybeans oscillated and declined, affected by US soybeans and the increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. However, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price bottom. The short - term trend is affected by the follow - up Sino - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The expected trading range for soybean A2507 is between 4100 and 4200 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt Not provided in the given content. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back after the US soybean futures market hit a high. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. In the short term, the soybean and soybean meal markets returned to an oscillatory pattern due to the outcome of the Sino - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - holiday price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the short - term trend of soybean meal entered an oscillatory and weakening pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supported the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. In the short term, soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and further guidance on the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal; variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest continues [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Bean - Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From May 15th to May 26th, the transaction price and volume of soybean meal and bean - rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and bean - rapeseed meal decreased from 651 on May 15th to 494 on May 26th [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From May 16th to May 26th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. For example, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu decreased from 2920 on May 16th to 2870 on May 26th [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From May 14th to May 26th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed. For example, the soybean meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31786 on May 14th to 27483 on May 26th [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory of global and domestic soybeans. For example, the global soybean output increased from 316137 thousand tons in 2015 to 422262 thousand tons in 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2024/25 is presented. For example, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season reached 98.5% on January 5th [33][34][38]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions increased, but the funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the main short positions decreased, and the funds flowed in [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, and the meal products are in a relatively strong oscillation [1]. - In the short - term, the meal products will return to oscillation, and in the medium - term, they will oscillate with an upward tendency [3][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sino - US Tariff Negotiation Settled in the Short - Term - The Sino - US tariff war has returned to the previous state. On March 3, 2025, the US raised additional tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 20%, and China imposed additional tariffs on some US - originated imported goods starting from March 10, 2025. After the agreement, the US tariff on China is 30%, and China's tariff on the US is 10% for all and 20% - 25% for some [8][9]. - The US has negotiated with other countries first. It completed negotiations with the UK first, imposed a 25% tariff on key Japanese auto parts on May 3, and extended the tariff negotiation deadline with the EU to July 9 [10]. - There are still uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff negotiation after 90 days [8]. 3.2 Analysis of the Supply - Demand Fundamentals of Meal Products 3.2.1 Brazilian Soybeans' Concentrated Arrival Pressures the Market - The peak of imported soybeans' arrival is postponed to June, with an overall increase. The soybean processing volume of oil mills has rebounded to a high level, and the soybean inventory of oil mills continues to rise while the soybean meal inventory remains low [13][14][18]. - The production of soybean meal in April decreased year - on - year. The futures of soybean meal oscillated strongly, while the spot was relatively weak after May Day, changing from premium to discount. The downstream procurement in China has rebounded from a low level, and the提货 volume remains good [14][16][20]. 3.2.2 Whether the Domestic Demand for Soybean Meal Can Be Stable - The prices of live pigs and piglets fluctuated slightly. The inventory of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The domestic pig - raising profit fluctuated slightly [22][24][26]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Meal Enters a Pattern of Strong Supply and Demand - The expected import of rapeseed is increasing, and domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. The demand for aquatic products is being released intensively [28]. - The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost oscillated strongly. The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has rebounded to a relatively high level, the rapeseed inventory of oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level [29][31][33]. 3.3 Short - Term Return to Oscillation, Medium - Term Oscillation with an Upward Tendency - With the short - term settlement of the Sino - US tariff negotiation, soybeans will return to oscillation in the short - term, waiting for new guidance. Imported soybeans will arrive in a concentrated manner, and oil mills' soybean meal will enter an inventory accumulation cycle in June [35]. - The future key variables include the planting area and weather speculation of new - season US soybeans, the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation, and the change in domestic demand [35]. - The bullish factors are the weather speculation of new - season US soybeans and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. The bearish factors are the concentrated clearance and arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans and the current pressure on the soybean meal spot in the off - season of demand [37]. - The planting area of new - season US soybeans has decreased by 3.6%, basically in line with expectations, and the planting of new - season US soybeans has started smoothly, but there are many uncertainties in the future [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors, including the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, US soybean planting weather, and the arrival of imported soybeans [10][11][13]. - The soybean market will also be in an oscillatory pattern, influenced by Sino - US trade relations, South American soybean harvests, and domestic supply - demand dynamics [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Hints Not explicitly presented in the provided content. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, good planting weather in the US led to a short - term pull - back in the US soybean market. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, while soybean meal inventories remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets returned to an oscillatory pattern due to the outcome of the Sino - US tariff war [13]. - Reduced profits in domestic pig farming led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but tight supply supported post - holiday price expectations. With reduced pressure from the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term oscillatory and weakening pattern [13]. - Low domestic soybean meal inventories supported short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war meant that soybean meal would remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting clarification of South American soybean yields and further developments in the Sino - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic soybean meal inventories at oil mills, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in May, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [14]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support from imported soybeans and expected increased demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [15]. 4. Fundamental Data Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides data from 2015 - 2024, showing trends in harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, indicating an overall upward trend in production and ending inventory over the years [22]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months Data from November 2024 to May 2025 shows changes in harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [23]. US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024 It details the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress from April to November, as well as the comparison of the excellent - good rate with the previous year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. Brazil's Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in 2024/25 It shows the planting rate from November 2024 to January 2025 and the harvesting rate from February to May 2025, along with comparisons with the previous year and the five - year average [27][28]. Argentina's Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25 The planting rate from November 2024 to January 2025 is presented, with comparisons to the previous year and the five - year average [29]. 5. Position Data Not explicitly presented in the provided content. 6. Trading Strategies For Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short - term, and soybean meal will be oscillatory and weakening. For the M2509 contract, short - term trading within the range of 2800 - 3000 is recommended [17]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. For Soybeans (Bean 1) - Futures: The A2507 contract is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4300, and short - term trading within this range is advised [20]. - Option strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [20]. 7. Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: US soybean - producing area planting weather, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [76][77]. - Second - most important: Domestic soybean meal demand, domestic oil mill inventories, and downstream procurement [78]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors, the situations in the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [78].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2900至2960区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，特朗普威胁对欧洲加征关税和美豆种植天气整体良好，美豆短期 偏强震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回 落，5月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格下跌限制反弹空间，进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美 关税谈判后续交互影响，短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2890（华东），基差-62，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存12.17万吨，上周10.12万吨，环比增加20.26%，去年同期62.31万吨， 同比 ...

Group 1 - Tokyo stock market rebounded on the 23rd, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 174.60 points to close at 37160.47, an increase of 0.47% [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange stock price index increased by 18.43 points, closing at 2735.52, reflecting a rise of 0.68% [1] - The rise was influenced by the overnight increase in the Nasdaq index, particularly in high-tech stocks, and a slight depreciation of the yen, which boosted expectations for improved performance from export-related companies [1] Group 2 - Over 80% of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with other products rising by 3.62% and non-ferrous metals increasing by nearly 3% [1] - However, six sectors, including mining, securities and commodity futures trading, and electric and gas industries, experienced slight declines [1] - Despite improvements in Japanese corporate sentiment and a better PMI report from the US, the Tokyo stock market has struggled to maintain trading enthusiasm, with the 200-day moving average acting as a resistance level [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic soybean meal may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term due to variables in Sino - US tariff negotiations, technical support, and weather uncertainties in US soybean - producing areas, while the expected high yield of South American soybeans suppresses the rebound height of the US soybean market and the increasing arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China [8]. - Domestic soybeans are in a relatively strong range - bound state, influenced by the interaction of the US soybean situation and the increasing arrival of imported soybeans, with the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supporting the price, but the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing the price increase [10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. The US soybean market is in a short - term upward trend, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean market and the low inventory of domestic oil mills, but the increase in imported soybeans in May and the decline in spot prices limit the rebound space [13]. - The domestic import volume of soybeans reached a high in May, and the short - term trend of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is affected by the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continues [14]. Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [15]. 4. Fundamental Data Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in East China is 2880, with a basis of - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price [8]. - The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 12.17 tons, a 20.26% increase from last week and an 80.47% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. Soybeans - The spot price of soybeans is 4200, with a basis of 6, indicating a premium to the futures price [10]. - The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 586.83 tons, a 9.71% increase from last week and a 33.95% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data Soybean Meal - The long positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. Soybeans - The short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent economic indicators for April demonstrate the resilience of China's economy, with some data exceeding market expectations, particularly an 8.1% year-on-year increase in goods exports in USD terms [1] - Despite a decline in exports and imports with the US by 21% and 13% respectively, exports to non-US regions have significantly increased, indicating a need to reassess the impact of tariffs on the economy in May and June [1] - The expectation for further policy easing may need to be re-evaluated based on the stable growth in production and demand, contrary to previous market expectations of economic pressure [1] Group 2 - The next phase will see more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic economic cycle, particularly through the real estate market [2] - From January to April, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7%, indicating a broad fiscal expenditure growth of over 7% [2] - The adjustment of micro-policies is crucial, as current low price phenomena are influenced not only by supply relations but also by the micro-market environment and pricing systems [2] Group 3 - The expansion of domestic demand strategy should focus on structural adjustments rather than just short-term stimulus, requiring a shift in understanding macro policies from crisis management to mid-term structural adjustments [3] - A better understanding of the relationship between policy choices, coordination of macro and micro policies, and the balance between short-term policies and mid-term reforms is essential for enhancing economic resilience [3]