Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,330 per troy ounce Monday, nearly even with Friday’s closing price of $4,328.30. The price of gold moved above $4,370 in early trading. After the widely anticipated rate reduction by the Fed last week, gold traders are looking ahead to the Fed’s next rate action. One complication — for the Fed and those trying to predict the Fed’s next move — is the delay or cancellation of key economic reports on labor, inflation, and spending due to the government shutdown. Speeches ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve decision to cut interest rates and initiate a "mini quantitative easing" has led to a significant surge in gold prices, reaching a one-month high, while silver has also hit a record high [1][2][3]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.50%-3.75% [7]. - A "mini QE" program will begin on December 12, involving the purchase of approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills to manage market liquidity [2][10]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the labor market faces risks and downplayed inflation concerns, suggesting that further rate hikes are unlikely in the near future [7][9]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar index fell to an eight-week low, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers, which contributed to the rise in gold prices [3][9]. - Gold prices closed up $51.17, or 1.21%, at $4,279.64 per ounce, with a notable increase in momentum due to the Fed's actions [2][12]. - Silver prices also surged, reaching a high of $64.31 per ounce, driven by strong market sentiment [6]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 236,000, the largest increase since July 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [11]. - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 3 basis points to 4.122%, and the real yield fell nearly 2.5 basis points to 1.872%, supporting the rise in gold prices [3][9]. Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that if gold closes above $4,300 per ounce, it could challenge $4,350 and potentially reach the historical high of $4,381 [12]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,250 and $4,200 per ounce, with further support at the 20-day simple moving average at $4,158 per ounce [14].

然而上周五，特朗普表示自己"当然应该在利率问题上与任何一位美联储负责人进行沟通"。他表 示："我成就斐然，积累了巨额财富，事业非常成功，我认为我的意见应该被听取。" 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 在2016年特朗普首次当选总统之前，数十年来两党总统都避免公开评论美联储决策，通常也尽量避免私 下干预。经济学家普遍认为，政治独立的美联储能更有效地抑制通胀，因为它可以采取不受欢迎的措施 来压低物价，例如提高利率。 今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于14506一线上方，今日开盘于14974元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报14626元/千克，下跌1.00%，最高触及15192元/千克，最低下探14237元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 沪银上周五达到目标位盈利离场。目前沪银走势仍然维持震荡格局，价格跌超1%，沪银溢价为400元/ 克，沪银情绪依旧高涨。沪银达到目标位后将在高位震荡。沪银主力合约参考运行区间14000-15100。 《华尔街日报》上周五报道称，保守派智库胡佛研究所研究员、前美联储理事凯文·沃什目前是特朗普 心目中接替鲍威尔的首选人选，鲍威尔的任期将 ...

Economic Policy and Election Impact - President Trump expressed uncertainty about whether his economic policies will help the Republican Party win the upcoming midterm elections, acknowledging that the full effects of economic activities may not be felt until the second quarter of next year [1] - Despite boasting about creating a strong economy, Trump admitted that many Americans are not experiencing the benefits of macroeconomic growth due to slow job growth and rising prices of everyday goods and services [1] Federal Reserve Criticism - Trump criticized the Federal Reserve for its hawkish stance, suggesting that the market's negative reaction to good economic news is a result of fears that the Fed will raise interest rates to combat inflation [2] - He challenged the traditional data-driven decision-making approach of the Fed, expressing a strong desire for lower interest rates, with a target of 1%, contrasting sharply with the Fed's current position [2] Tariff Policy and Government Intervention - Trump reiterated his reliance on tariffs, claiming they have brought wealth to the U.S. and provided leverage in international negotiations, although his tariff policies are facing legal challenges [3] - He defended government intervention in the economy, indicating that the government is considering investing in defense companies and has already invested in semiconductor and critical mineral companies, which could have significant implications for related industries [3] Inflation Challenges - Inflation remains a core challenge for Trump, who attributed high inflation to the previous administration while claiming to have lowered prices [4] - However, prices for essential goods like coffee and beef have significantly increased during his second term, leading to criticism from Democrats who argue that his economic policies have raised costs for American families [5]

直接直线上涨，最高4286遇阻小幅调整。 面临4300关口，进入短期调整。 黄金横盘整理，围绕4200多空激战后，多头大爆发，直接坐火箭起飞，终于突破。一路狂飙80美金，强 势归来，再战4300的关口。 昨天4235附近，再次空获利。 今天的走势 昨晚多头搏击，涨破4264阻力。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，鲍威尔给市场情绪降温，特别是通胀和资本市场的过热现象，持续模糊谨慎表态，淡化美联储 未来的利率的路径。更重要的是11月数据集体缺失，明年降息降温，黄金冲高回落调整。 另外一方面，美联储继续扩表，特别是降息25基点，又开启了宽松。更重要的是美失业金与上周反差极 大，创单周最大增幅，意外显示美经济疲软的迹象，美元持续贬值跳水，利好黄金上演大幅反弹。 下方可调整空间，看回踩4250的位置。 此位置支撑有效，再次反弹，继续看涨为主。 上方再次破高，看向4300的关口，或一度续涨，看4380的历史高位。 当然了，高位流动的真空区域。 特别是急涨之下，随着调整持续，可调整空间加大，下方再次跌破了4250，下方继续看向4220的支撑。 黄金11月收官后，12月深陷100美金，连续2周的横盘整理后。再次上破，多头爆发，强势不 ...

今日周五(12月12日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于14731一线上方，今日开盘于14482元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报14885元/千克，上涨2.85%，最高触及15010元/千克，最低下探14464元/千克，目前来 看，白银td盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 因出口增加，美国9月贸易逆差意外收窄，降至2020年年中以来最小水平。 美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，商品和服务贸易逆差较前月缩小近11%，至528亿美元，市场预期为 631亿美元。出口额增长3%，达到有记录以来第二高水平，主要受非货币黄金和药品制剂推动。 进口仅微增0.6%。今年因美国实施关税措施，贸易数据出现大幅月度波动，也导致GDP出现类似波 动。9月贸易数据将帮助经济学家进一步修正对第三季度GDP的估算。 另外根据市场调查显示的工具数据显示，目前市场认为下月维持利率不变的概率已升至约78%。与此同 时，市场对于区域局势缓和的讨论也引起部分投资者对传统避险需求的重新评估。 【最新白银td行情解析】 日图来看，已连续两日收阳，白银td开盘持续走涨，到达高点后小幅回落，价格处于正值区间，目前有 望再度拉升，布林带开口扩大显示上涨空间充足 ...

【资讯导读】 ·美国9月贸易逆差环比下降 ·美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人 ·瑞士央行将利率维持在零水平 ·多家研究机构下调德国经济增长预期 ·OPEC对2026年全球石油供需的预测保持稳定 【市场资讯】 ·美国商务部11日发布的数据显示，美国9月商品和服务贸易逆差金额为528亿美元，小于8月修订后的 593亿美元，环比下降10.96%。 ·美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人，达到23.6万人，这一增幅为2020年3月以来最高。 ·马斯克10日暗示，他旗下的太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）可能首次公开募股（IPO）。 ·瑞士央行连续第二次维持利率在0%不变，符合市场预期。与此同时，瑞士央行下调了未来两年的通胀 预期，但重申重返负利率门槛极高。 ·德国多家重要经济研究机构11日分别发布的冬季预测报告显示，受对美国出口明显下滑等因素影响， 2025年德国经济预计仅增长0.1%，较秋季预测的0.2%增幅再度下调。 ·石油输出国组织（OPEC）对2026年全球石油供需的预测保持稳定，认为世界市场将保持平衡，这与普 遍预测的供应过剩相悖。 ·日本央行内部人士透露，尽管日本10年期国债收益率飙升至1.97%的18 ...

债券 2025 年 12 月 11 日 美联储那些事儿 美联储议息会议：政策利率处于"有利位置" 证券分析师 图表1 鲍威尔发布会表态要点 资料来源： FED ，平安证券研究所 9月以来的降息使当前利率整体处于中性的区间(within a broad range o f estimates o f neutral)和有利的位置 （well positioned t o wait too see how the economy evolved），可以等待观察经济的演变，美联储将谨慎评 估即将到来的数据。 在评估家庭调查数据时必须谨慎，因为劳动力市场数据收集方式可能存在一些问题，导致数据出现偏差， 不仅波动性更大，还会出现扭曲的情况；同时1 0月和1 1月部分数据可能未能收集齐全，美联储需要以谨慎 和怀疑的态度来审视这些数据。 不认为当前存在加息的预期。 就储备管理购买（reserve management purchase），因为4月15日是纳税日，居民和企业缴税可能导致准备金季节 性回落，所以未来几个月将保持较高的购债规模；此外，准备金规模需要跟随银行体系和经济规模增长，这可能 导致准备金需要每月增加200- ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains its expectation of only one rate cut in 2026, indicating sufficient measures have been taken to mitigate employment threats [1] - Comments on inflation lean dovish, highlighting that price increases are concentrated in tariff-affected industries and may be temporary, while productivity gains are suppressing price rises in other sectors [1] - The baseline forecast suggests robust economic growth next year with interest rates remaining within a reasonable range, providing the Fed with ample space to observe economic developments [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock markets experienced broad gains, with small-cap stocks and high-beta stocks leading the rally, while all sectors except utilities and consumer staples saw increases [3] - Treasury prices rose, leading to a steepening of the yield curve, exacerbated by the Fed's decision to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills [5] - Emerging market bonds also rose, benefiting from an increase in market risk appetite [6] Group 3 - The dollar experienced its largest decline since September following the Fed's dovish comments, while the Brazilian central bank's hawkish stance may provide relief for the struggling Brazilian real [7] - Gold prices increased due to the Fed's rate cut impact, with its speculative attributes appearing to outweigh its safe-haven characteristics [7]

【内容摘要】12月10日，资金面更加充沛；债市延续暖意；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，PPI同比下降2.2%】根据国家统计局12月10日公布的数据，2025年11月，CPI同比上涨0.7%，上月为上涨0.2%，1-11月CPI累计同 比为0.0%；11月PPI同比下降2.2%，上月为下降2.1%，1-11月PPI累计同比下降2.7%。 【财政部：2025年到期续作特别国债为等额滚动发行，不增加财政赤字】12月10日，财政部有关负责人就2025年到期续作特别国债发行相关问题答记者问表 示，对于2025年12月12日即将到期的7500亿元特别国债，财政部将延续以前年度做法，继续采取滚动发行的方式，向有关银行等额定向发行2025年到期续作 特别国债，所筹资金用于偿还当月到期本金。2025年到期续作的7500亿元特别国债将在全国银行间债券市场面向有关银行定向发行，期限品种包括10年期 4000亿元、15年期3500亿元。发行过程不涉及社会投资者，个人投资者不能购买。 【国 ...