美国商务部长卢特尼克：鲍威尔把利率维持得太高了。 ...

美国财政部副部长福尔肯德："人们应该质疑"为什么利率如此之高。 ...

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Waller is the need for the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut in July due to concerns over weak private sector employment, which he believes is not as healthy as commonly perceived [1][3] - Waller's comments were influenced by the June non-farm payroll report, which indicated a slowdown in private sector job growth and a deceleration in wage growth, despite a slight decrease in the overall unemployment rate [3] - Following Waller's statements, the dollar index fell by 0.39%, and U.S. Treasury yields also declined slightly, indicating a more aggressive stance on rate cuts than the market consensus, which anticipates a cut in September [1] Group 2 - Waller has expressed interest in succeeding Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, stating he would accept the position if offered, although he noted that there has been no communication from President Trump regarding this matter [4] - He emphasized the importance of the next chair gaining the trust of financial markets, warning that a lack of credibility could lead to rising inflation expectations and higher interest rates, contrary to the desired outcome of lower rates [5]

Core Insights - Following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller regarding interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields fell to a daily low [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline after Waller's remarks, indicating potential shifts in market expectations regarding interest rate policies [1]

特朗普：美联储正在扼杀房地产市场。高利率让年轻人很难买到房子。我们应该享受1%的利率。 ...

美国总统特朗普：我们应当达到1%的（利率）水平。 ...

Economic Outlook - The market anticipates that tariffs will lead to economic growth slowdown and rising inflation in the coming months, but significant opportunities for long or short positions in overall duration have not been identified yet [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell advocates for patience regarding interest rates, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize employment goals and consider rate cuts later in the year as inflation is expected to decline [1] - Global central banks are adopting different policies in response to regional dynamics, leading to a general divergence between the economy and the markets [1] Government Bonds - In the Eurozone, the market expects the European Central Bank to further cut rates after a 175 basis point reduction, with long-term yields facing upward risks due to signs of demand recovery and low inflation expectations [3] - Japan is experiencing inflation pressure, with nominal GDP growth exceeding 5% year-on-year, but concerns over tariffs may hinder GDP growth and market confidence [3] - Investment opportunities may arise in UK government bonds as fears of fiscal irresponsibility lead to increased term premiums, despite signs of a weakening job market [3] Equities - The company maintains a moderate overweight in global equities, expecting positive earnings growth across major regions, although valuation remains a concern due to low risk premiums indicating market over-optimism [5] - Japanese equities are favored over U.S. equities due to valuation differences and ongoing corporate governance reforms, although potential policy headwinds may limit further overweighting [5] - U.S. equities are underweighted due to high valuations and market over-reliance on a few large companies for performance, with expectations for broad earnings growth being delayed [5][6] Credit Markets - Credit spreads have tightened back to historical lows after an initial widening, with a moderate overweight in credit spreads deemed acceptable in a non-recession scenario [8] - U.S. high-yield bonds have a total return of 6%-7%, attracting investors seeking arbitrage opportunities, supported by improved credit quality and low default rates [8] Commodities - The company holds a neutral view on commodities, with gold benefiting from structural factors and geopolitical concerns, although a cautious approach to new positions is advised [10] - Oil allocation has been slightly reduced due to expectations of oversupply by year-end, presenting a potential shorting opportunity, with risks associated with significant negative spreads [10]

特朗普威胁要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的举动，引发了一个紧迫却可能无解的问题：若失去独立的美国央 行，全球经济和金融市场将何去何从？ 作为抵御白宫干预的堡垒，独立的美联储日益成为美国和全球市场的定海神针——无论是2008-09年金 融危机、新冠疫情还是近年来的其他冲击，它都发挥着稳定局势的关键作用。经济学家认为，央行能保 持局势稳定，很大程度上得益于其不受政治影响的独立决策权。 如今，前美联储官员和投资者警告，一个更听命于白宫的央行可能丧失应对金融威胁的快速反应能力和 公信力。 "任何经济学家听到这话，都不知道该哭还是该笑，"1994至1996年在美联储任职的布林德表示。低利率 鼓励企业和消费者增加借贷和投资，从而刺激经济增长，但也可能大幅推高通胀。"如果你不愿通过加 息对抗通胀，通胀就会获胜，"布林德说。 低利率还可能吹大金融市场泡沫。当投资者无法从短期国债等安全资产获得可观回报时，就会转向风险 更高、回报更高但亏损风险也更大的资产。2008-09年金融危机后对美联储的一个批评就是，它对房价 和抵押贷款相关资产泡沫的危险性不够警觉。虽然并非所有人都认为当时美联储过于自满，但一个政治 化的央行在金融过度积累时更可能 ...

美联储戴利：利率适度或略微偏紧。 ...

美联储戴利：利率最终将稳定在3%或更高水平。 ...