Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil prices opened lower and rebounded, remaining in a low - level volatile state. Trump's remarks increased concerns about US sanctions on Russian oil. The IEA raised the global crude oil surplus forecast for 2025 but also mentioned a "near - term peak - season tightness." This week, the situation regarding sanctions and subsequent trade tariff issues is expected to become clearer, and the market will experience significant fluctuations. Short - term prices are expected to range between 507 - 513, and long - term investors are advised to add to their long positions on dips [3]. - The short - term market is driven by geopolitical conflicts, while in the long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US envoy Witkoff is expected to visit Russia on Wednesday. Trump set a Friday deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war, threatening new sanctions otherwise. Trump also plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase and resale of Russian oil. Venezuelan oil exports in July decreased by about 10% month - on - month due to partners awaiting US approval for business expansion [3]. - **Basis**: On August 4, the spot price of Oman crude was $71.20 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $70.51 per barrel, with a basis of 8.96 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was at par with the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 7.698 million barrels, against the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 690,000 barrels. As of August 4, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of July 29, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump plans to raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase and resale of Russian oil. In 2023, India became the largest market for Russian crude oil, and last year, Russia supplied about 550 million barrels of crude oil to India, while the US only exported 52 million barrels [5]. - The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months according to an agreement with the US [5]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and well - known bond fund manager Gundlach believes the Fed will cut rates twice this year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to rise [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 1.31%, - 1.54%, - 2.14%, and - 3.46% respectively [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.59% to - 3.77% [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API and EIA inventories showed different trends from May to July. API inventory increased by 1.539 million barrels in the week ending July 25, and EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels during the same period [10][13]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position increased by 2,692 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position increased by 33,959 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is to stay on the sidelines [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to an increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase space of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. However, the actual production increase is far from the target. It's recommended to focus on the actual production implementation of OPEC+ members [2][6][27] - There are concerns in the market that the US's secondary sanctions on Russia may disrupt Russian oil exports, but India and Brazil have refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US sanctions may face challenges [2][7][27] - Overall, it is estimated that supply will exceed demand. The market will run weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual production execution of OPEC+ members [2][27] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices fluctuated. SC2509 opened at 513, reached a high of 535, a low of 501, and closed at 527, with a weekly increase of 15 or 2.92%. It showed short - term fluctuations [3] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains Its Stance on Production Increase - In June, OPEC's total production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 173,000 barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day, and the UAE's production increased by 83,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day [5] - The OPEC+ JMMC meeting on July 28 did not propose production policy suggestions, pointed out that some countries did not comply with their quotas, and the next meeting will be held on October 1 [5] - Eight major oil - producing countries decided to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September, and will adjust the production increase rhythm flexibly according to market conditions [5] 3.2.2 Russia: Gradually Fulfilling Production Cuts, Monitor the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). Last month, Russia's daily crude oil loading was stable at 4.68 million barrels, and its daily refined oil exports decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels [7] - IEA said that Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports in June were at an extremely low level, the lowest in the same period in five years. From 2024 to 2025, Russia's exports showed a downward trend, raising questions about its ability to maintain upstream production capacity [7] - Trump proposed to set a new deadline of 10 - 12 days for Russia. If there is no progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US will impose tariffs and take other measures. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, and the UK lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel from September 2. But India and Brazil refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US secondary sanctions may face challenges [7] 3.2.3 US: Stable Production - The US's weekly crude oil production decreased by 41,000 barrels per day to 13.314 million barrels per day. As of July 25, the number of active oil - drilling rigs was 415, the lowest since September 2021, 7 less than the previous week and 67 less than the same period last year. The continuous decline in the number of oil rigs for three months has affected the growth of US crude oil production [8] - The US Energy Information Administration predicts that the US's daily crude oil production will drop to about 13.37 million barrels next year, from about 13.42 million barrels this year [8] 3.2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Growth - IEA's June monthly report: Global oil production capacity is expected to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. It is expected that global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The supply growth forecast for non - OPEC+ countries in 2025 has been lowered from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and it is expected to reach 920,000 barrels per day in 2026 [14] - IEA's July monthly report: This year's global oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day compared with the previous forecast [14] - OPEC stated that in 2025, the supply from countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [14] 3.2.5 Inventory: Decrease - As of April 2025, OECD's commercial crude oil and liquid inventories were 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared with the same period last year [15] - As of the week of July 25, 2025, according to API data, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.539 million barrels, and gasoline inventories decreased by 1.739 million barrels. According to EIA data, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventories were 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels; and gasoline inventories were 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels [15] 3.2.6 Consumption: Weak - The disappointing US non - farm payroll data has raised expectations of interest rate cuts, which may boost weak crude oil demand. In July, the US non - farm employment only increased by 73,000, far below market expectations, and historical data was significantly revised downward. On one hand, the weak labor market has increased concerns about slowing oil demand; on the other hand, market expectations of US interest rate cuts have risen, and there is a possibility that interest rate cuts will boost crude oil demand [20] - Both IEA and EIA have lowered their forecasts for new crude oil demand, and the predicted new demand is less than the new supply. In IEA's July monthly report, it mentioned that the consumption in emerging crude oil markets is weak, and the forecast for the increase in crude oil demand in 2025 is 700,000 barrels per day, a contraction of 400,000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year. EIA's July monthly report also shows a similar downward trend, with the forecast for demand increase in 2025 at 800,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 500,000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year [20] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to an increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase space of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. However, the actual production increase is far from the target. It's recommended to focus on the actual production implementation of OPEC+ members [27] - There are concerns in the market that the US's secondary sanctions on Russia may disrupt Russian oil exports, but India and Brazil have refused to stop buying Russian oil, so the implementation of US sanctions may face challenges [27] - Overall, it is estimated that supply will exceed demand. The market will run weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual production execution of OPEC+ members [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement of the macro - sentiment due to the US reaching tariff agreements with major economies and the rise in geopolitical risk premiums are the main drivers for the rebound of domestic and international oil prices this week. However, with OPEC+ oil - producing countries continuing to accelerate production increases in September, the supply is under negative pressure, and the supply - demand structure of crude oil has weakened. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [5][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Soars and Basis Discount Narrows Significantly - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was reported at $71.26 per barrel, equivalent to RMB 509.5 per barrel, with a significant weekly increase of RMB 26.3 per barrel. The main contract 2509 of domestic crude oil futures closed at RMB 527.9 per barrel, rising significantly by RMB 15.0 per barrel week - on - week. The discount narrowed significantly, and the basis between the two was RMB 18.4 per barrel [9]. 3.1.2 Oil - Producing Countries Increase Production Again, and Crude Oil Declines Weakly - The US reaching tariff agreements with other countries improves the macro - factor, boosting the risk appetite of the global commodity market. The US increasing sanctions on Russian crude oil may lead to a decline in supply. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries maintain the production increase plan for September, the actual supply growth may be less than expected. Due to OPEC+ continuing to accelerate production increases in September, under the suppression of supply negative factors, last Friday, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a weak downward trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed down 2.95% to RMB 513.0 per barrel [5][15]. 3.2 Escalation of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus and Faster Production Increase Rhythm 3.2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, and the Expectation of Supply Surplus Increases - After a significant and unexpected production increase in May, OPEC+ oil - producing countries accelerated production increases for the second consecutive month, exceeding market expectations. In May and June, they each increased production by 411,000 barrels per day. In the past three months, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased production by 2.2 million barrels per day, completing nearly half of the 18 - month production cutback task. Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries have reiterated their commitment to market stability and increased production. This decision may suppress oil prices in the short term but may intensify quota disputes among members and raise concerns about supply surplus in the long term. In June 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.235 million barrels per day, with a slight month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day [22][23][24]. 3.2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries' Capacity Remains at a High Level - As the leader of non - OPEC oil - producing countries, the US has maintained a high level of crude oil production since 2024. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 415, a slight weekly decrease of 7 and a decrease of 67 compared to the same period last year. The US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, a slight weekly increase of 41,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 14,000 barrels per day. The EIA predicts that the growth rate of US domestic crude oil production in 2025 will slow down further, with an expected increase of 160,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day this year and flat production in 2026 [37][38]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is in the Seasonal Peak - The US, as the largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. July - August is the peak season for gasoline consumption. However, after the US announced a comprehensive tariff policy, many financial institutions have adjusted their crude oil demand growth forecasts downward. Energy institutions such as EIA, IEA, and OPEC have also lowered their global crude oil demand growth expectations for 2025. It is expected that the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2025 will further decline [41][42]. 3.2.4 US Crude Oil Inventories Decrease Significantly, and Refinery Utilization Rate Increases Slightly - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.7 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 7.698 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.358 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.553 million barrels, with a slight weekly increase of 690,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 402.7 million barrels, with a slight weekly increase of 238,000 barrels. The US refinery utilization rate was maintained at 95.4%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.1 percentage points, a slight monthly increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 5.3 percentage points [44]. 3.2.5 China's Crude Oil Imports Increase Slightly in June 2025 - In June 2025, China's crude oil production maintained a stable growth trend, with the output of industrial enterprises above the designated size reaching 18.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The crude oil processing volume turned from a decline to an increase, reaching 62.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In June, China's crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 7.38%. Looking forward to 2025, China's crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [48]. 3.3 Iran - Israel Ceasefire, and Crude Oil Premium Drops Significantly - Since the Iran - Israel conflict, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. After the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the crude oil premium has rapidly shrunk. The conflict has exposed Iran's weaknesses in internal security, air defense systems, and the influence of the main - peace faction [59]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Significantly Week - on - Week - Since July 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, and the market's bullish power has shrunk. As of July 22, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 153,331 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 9,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 52,648 contracts compared to the June average, a decline of 25.56%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 227,245 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 11,576 contracts, and a significant increase of 40,622 contracts compared to the June average, an increase of 21.83% [61].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are facing downward pressure due to OPEC+ decisions to increase production and concerns over global energy demand [1][2][5] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September [1] - The eight countries involved in this decision include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman [1] - OPEC+ has shifted from a reduction strategy to an increase strategy, with a cumulative increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - On August 1, international oil prices saw a significant drop, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices falling nearly 3% [2] - Brent crude oil futures for October fell below $70 per barrel [2] - The decline in oil prices is linked to disappointing U.S. employment data and concerns over global energy demand due to U.S. tariff policies [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global crude oil supply is increasing, with EIA reporting a June production of 104.9 million barrels per day, up by 628,000 barrels from May [3] - Demand for crude oil is growing at a slower pace, with EIA reporting a June demand of 104.43 million barrels per day, an increase of 182,000 barrels from May [3] - OECD commercial crude oil and petroleum product inventories stood at 2.796 billion barrels at the end of June, a decrease of 420,000 barrels from May [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a long-term oversupply in the oil market, with countries like India and Brazil continuing to purchase Russian oil despite U.S. pressure [5] - The end of the peak consumption season for refined products is expected to exert further pressure on crude oil prices [5] - Current oil prices are anticipated to have downward potential, with opportunities for short positions in the future [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "strong reality, weak expectation", with short - term support factors and long - term suppression logic coexisting. In the short term, factors such as the peak consumption season, improved macro - environment, and OPEC+ actual production increase lower than planned support oil prices. In the long term, OPEC+ is expected to fully release the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of the fourth quarter, while seasonal demand will weaken, leading to a long - term structural surplus. The proposed US sanctions on Russia may cause short - term supply concerns and oil price rebounds, but the actual supply reduction may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure of WTI crude oil prices at $70 - 72 per barrel, and consider short positions if sanctions are lower than market expectations [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, oil prices first fluctuated widely and then rose. The "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern of crude oil, the expected peak consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the decline in EIA crude oil inventories supported oil prices. Although OPEC+ planned to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, the market had already priced it in, and the actual increase was much smaller. The threat of US sanctions on Russia also supported oil price rebounds. However, in the fourth quarter, the shift from peak to off - peak consumption and OPEC+ production increases may lead to supply surpluses and limit oil price increases [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Trade Agreements - The short - term trade tension has been alleviated as the US reached trade agreements with China, the EU, and Japan. However, the long - term impact on the global economy is still uncertain. The US also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil [6]. 3.2.2 Fed's Interest Rate Decision - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. There were two dissenting votes advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped from about 65% to below 50% [10]. 3.2.3 Geopolitical Tensions - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine by August 8. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about supply disruptions and supported oil prices [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. It is expected to continue increasing production in September to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. However, Kazakhstan's failure to cut production as promised may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [14][15]. 3.3.2 Forecasts from Different Institutions - In July, IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [17]. 3.3.3 Supply from Different Regions - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 221,000 barrels per day in June, mainly due to Saudi Arabia's production increase. Non - OPEC production increased by 129,000 barrels per day, mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia. US crude oil production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, and the number of oil rigs also decreased [19][21][24]. 3.3.4 Demand from Different Regions - China's apparent crude oil consumption increased by 3% in June. However, China's manufacturing PMI decreased in July. In the US, refinery utilization rates increased, but the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and the Chicago PMI continued to decline [32][38][39]. 3.3.5 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels in the week ending July 25. Although the seasonal peak may drive inventory reduction, the reduction space is limited [48].

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - As the peak season enters the second half, with OPEC continuing to increase production, the oil price center is expected to move down further. In July, the main driver of crude oil was the peak - season market. The continuous inventory reduction of crude oil and refined oil in Europe and the United States supported the oil price to some extent. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's summer crude oil power generation consumed part of the increased production. Subsequently, the support from the demand side for oil prices will gradually decline, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. There is still room for oil prices to compress. The key price to focus on is $60, which is close to the break - even point of new US shale oil wells. The US crude oil production will be a major variable on the supply side. The focus ranges are WTI [60, 70] for the outer market and SC [450, 500] for the inner market [3][97]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The core driver of the crude oil market was the unexpected peak - season demand for diesel in Europe and the United States [10]. 2. Macroeconomics - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the rate unchanged. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's 2025 growth rate by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% compared with the April WEO forecast, due to stronger - than - expected economic activity in China in the first half of 2025 and much lower Sino - US actual tariffs than expected in April [3]. - On July 29, the IMF released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, raising the 2025 global economic growth forecast by 0.2% to 3%, mainly because China's economic growth exceeded expectations and the Sino - US tariff level was lower than expected [21]. 3. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Supply - In June 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 219,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,723.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production rose by 173,000 barrels per day to 935,600 barrels per day; Iraq's by 11,000 barrels per day to 394,300 barrels per day; and the UAE's by 83,000 barrels per day to 305,300 barrels per day. Kuwait's production increased by 12,000 barrels per day to 243,600 barrels per day, while Iran's decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 324,100 barrels per day, and Venezuela's rose by 2,000 barrels per day to 91,000 barrels per day [4][34][35]. - As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil production was 1,331 million barrels per day, up 41,000 barrels per day month - on - month, and the number of US oil rigs was 415, down 7 month - on - month [38]. - As of the week ending July 25, the US net crude oil imports increased. Demand - In July 2025, the EIA, OPEC, and IEA monthly reports estimated the 2025 global crude oil demand at 10,354 million barrels per day, 10,513 million barrels per day, and 10,374 million barrels per day respectively, with growth rates of 80,000 barrels per day, 129,000 barrels per day, and 70,000 barrels per day compared with 2024. The EIA and OPEC July 2025 reports estimated the 2026 global crude oil demand at 10,459 million barrels per day and 10,642 million barrels per day respectively, with growth rates of 105,000 barrels per day and 128,000 barrels per day compared with 2025 [4][42][44]. - As of the week ending July 25, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 17.3731 million tons, down 109,000 tons month - on - month. In June, the monthly crude oil imports were 49.89 million tons, up 7.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 279.82 million tons, up 1.57% year - on - year. The domestic refinery capacity utilization rate was 71.55%, the main refinery capacity utilization rate was 81.21%, and the Shandong local refinery capacity utilization rate was 48.16% [54][58]. Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.69 million barrels, up 7.7 million barrels; strategic crude oil inventory was 402.74 million barrels, up 240,000 barrels. US gasoline inventory was 228.41 million barrels, down 2.72 million barrels; and distillate fuel oil inventory was 113.54 million barrels, up 3.64 million barrels [62][64]. - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of the week ending July 25, China's port inventory was 28.266 million tons, up 187,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory was 2.496 million tons, up 13,000 tons [67]. 4. Spreads and Positions Spreads - WTI's inter - month spreads increased. As of July 30, WTI M1 - M2 was $1.07 per barrel, and M1 - M6 was $3.50 per barrel. Recently, Trump's pressure on Russia over the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices [80]. - The inter - month spreads of the domestic market also increased. - As of July 30, the US gasoline crack spread was $22.48 per barrel, the diesel crack spread was $31.24 per barrel, the 5:3:2 crude oil crack spread was $25.99 per barrel, and the 3:2:1 crack spread was $25.40 per barrel. The domestic refined oil crack spread remained stable [84]. Positions - Information on WTI and Brent positions was provided, but no specific data summary was given. - The SC warehouse receipt volume was at a low level, while the SC total position increased. 5. Summary - The peak season for crude oil is in the second half. As OPEC continues to expand production, the oil price center is expected to move down. In July, the peak - season market, continuous inventory reduction of crude oil and refined oil in Europe and the United States, and Saudi Arabia's summer power - generation consumption of part of the increased production supported the oil price. Subsequently, the demand - side support for oil prices will gradually decline, and the supply - side pressure will increase, with room for oil price compression. The key price to watch is $60, and the US crude oil production is a major supply - side variable. The recommended trading ranges are WTI [60, 70] for the outer market and SC [450, 500] for the inner market [97]. - The report also provided various trading strategies, including futures, options, and hedging strategies, with different recommended intensities [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint of the Report Crude oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak in the short term. The ongoing game between OPEC+ production cuts and increased US exports, potential supply increments from oil - producing countries like Iraq, weakening refinery demand, and rising refined product inventories all contribute to this outlook. Geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, but factors such as slow crude oil de - stocking, increasing refined product pressure, and expected tightening of macro - liquidity limit the upside potential of oil prices [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 22, 2025, crude oil futures prices generally weakened. The SC main contract fell 1.56% to 504.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 8 yuan/barrel from the previous day. WTI and Brent dropped 0.5% and 0.61% respectively, closing at 65.45 dollars/barrel and 68.67 dollars/barrel. The spreads of SC relative to Brent and WTI narrowed significantly, and the SC inter - term spread (continuous - consecutive 3) dropped 47.4% to 20.3 yuan/barrel, indicating eased near - end supply - demand pressure [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: On July 22, the trading volumes of WTI and Brent decreased by 26.8% and 30.4% respectively, and open interest also decreased, suggesting reduced market activity and partial exit of short - sellers. The single - day increase of 26,840 tons in fuel oil futures warehouse receipts indicates high pressure on bonded delivery resources, possibly related to increased refinery operations [3]. 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Geopolitical supply uncertainties are increasing. Mexico plans to issue bonds worth billions of dollars to support its national oil company, and Iraq and Turkey are negotiating an energy agreement. The US has become a net exporter of Nigerian crude oil. However, OPEC+ maintaining the production - cut framework still restricts supply in the short term [4]. - **Demand Side**: Refinery demand has weakened marginally. US API data shows a 328,000 - barrel - per - day drop in refinery crude input in the week ending July 18. There is a structural differentiation in refined product consumption, with gasoline inventories decreasing by 1.228 million barrels and refined oil inventories increasing by 3.48 million barrels. The shutdown of the UK's Lindsey refinery further suppresses regional demand. The expected increase in global LNG supply may replace some fuel oil demand, but the natural gas cooperation between China and Algeria has limited substitution effect on crude oil [5]. - **Inventory Side**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 577,000 barrels (expected - 646,000 barrels), while Cushing inventories increased by 314,000 barrels, showing pressure at the delivery location. Refined product inventories are structurally differentiated, with unexpected refined oil inventory build - up and a narrowing decline in heating oil inventories, indicating weak terminal consumption momentum. The sharp increase in fuel oil warehouse receipts further highlights the implicit inventory pressure in the Asian market [6]. 3. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak in the short term. The game between OPEC+ production cuts and US export growth continues, and potential supply increments from oil - producing countries like Iraq depend on the progress of agreements. On the demand side, the decline in refinery input and the structural build - up of refined product inventories indicate weakened support during the seasonal peak season. Geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, but factors such as slow crude oil de - stocking, rising refined product pressure, and expected tightening of macro - liquidity limit the upside potential of oil prices [7][8]. 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 22, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread dropped significantly. The US dollar index decreased, while the S&P 500 increased slightly. The DAX index decreased, and the RMB exchange rate remained stable. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. The US strategic reserve inventory decreased slightly, and API inventories increased. The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume decreased [9]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 22, 2025, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products decreased. The spreads of Singapore high - low sulfur and China high - low sulfur narrowed. Platts prices of some fuel oil products changed slightly, and there were changes in US distillate inventories [10]. 5. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On July 23, Mexico took measures to strengthen the financial situation of its national oil company, and a Kuwaiti company made a final investment decision on a natural gas exploration project in Egypt. The US became a net exporter of Nigerian crude oil. On July 22, Mexico planned to issue bonds worth 7 - 10 billion dollars to support its national oil company. The IEA predicted a significant increase in global LNG supply next year. Zhongman Petroleum signed a natural gas exploration and development contract in Algeria. Iraq was considering renewing an energy agreement with Turkey, and Nigeria's Q1 oil production was 1.6 million barrels per day [11][12]. - **Demand**: As of July 21, the average price of domestic 92 gasoline increased by 48 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month [14]. - **Inventory**: In the week ending July 18, US API data showed changes in crude oil input, refined product imports, and various inventory levels, including significant increases in refined oil inventories and decreases in gasoline inventories. The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 26,840 tons [15]. - **Market Information**: As of July 23, the prices of some crude oil futures decreased. The trading volumes and open interest of WTI and Brent crude oil futures decreased, while those of natural gas futures changed. The market was in a state of multi - day oscillation, and concerns about summer demand and inventory changes affected price trends [16][17]. 6. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate charts, which help to visually present the market situation [18][20][22].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil inventories increased slightly. The EU imposed the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, reducing the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may hold nuclear talks with major European powers next week, and whether to resume nuclear talks with the US depends on the US attitude. The supply of Kurdish oil fields was affected by attacks, with about 200,000 barrels per day of production at risk of interruption. Globally, refinery profits strengthened week - on - week, and the product side remained firm. In China, refinery operations were volatile, and after the increase in June, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, with refinery profits weakening week - on - week, leaving limited room to boost operations further. In the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply supported the crude oil monthly structure, but the peak - season factors were relatively fully realized, and the recent monthly spreads were in a volatile pattern. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Price Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.14, Brent by $0.07, and Dubai by $0.15. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread decreased by $0.05, and the WTI - BRENT spread decreased by $0.07. Other price differentials also showed various changes [2]. - For domestic and other related products, SC decreased by 19.70, the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 3.00, and the Japanese naphtha - BRT spread decreased by 2.98, etc. [2] 2. Daily News - Traders are evaluating the real impact of the EU's latest sanctions on Russian oil supply, and international oil prices have limited fluctuations. The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia last Friday, including India's Nayara Energy. The Kremlin said it is immune to Western sanctions. Trump threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russian oil buyers if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days. The market doubts the effectiveness of the sanctions [2]. - Trump is seeking to impose a 15 - 20% minimum tariff on all EU goods [3]. - The EU sanctioned an Iranian oil tycoon for assisting Russian oil trade. Iran's foreign minister said Iran is willing to talk with the US but not directly for now [3]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day. The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91%. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07%. The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [3][15]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. The output of gasoline decreased while that of diesel increased, the gasoline inventory increased while the diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries declined week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peak of the northern hemisphere's consumption season can still support the market to some extent, resisting the pressure of increased supply. Coupled with many short - term supply disturbances in the market, oil prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. However, the consumption season has reached its peak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent performance of US gasoline demand. After that, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and the upside space is limited [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Views - **Last week's view**: The northern hemisphere's consumption season can support the market to resist supply pressure, but the upside space is limited as the consumption season is at its peak [7]. - **This week's trend analysis**: At the beginning of the week, potential Russian supply disturbances briefly strengthened oil prices, but Trump's statement dispelled short - term risks, and prices gave back previous gains. Despite poor US gasoline data, traditional consumption seasons and Iraqi supply disturbances kept weekly oil prices in a relatively strong oscillation [7]. - **Analysis of fundamentals**: The month - spread is firm, diesel leads the crack spread, and US gasoline demand data is cold. Major institutions' monthly reports maintain the expectation of increased inventory but have differences on future demand trends. There are multiple supply disturbances such as EU sanctions on Russia, Trump promoting a Russian agreement, and damaged production in the Iraqi Kurdish region [7]. 2. Weekly Highlights - **Near - month spreads**: After the disturbance of the Middle - East conflict ended, the month - spreads remained firm, indicating tight physical supply and demand. The month - spread of Middle - East Oman crude was stronger and affected the internal SC month - spread [9][11]. - **Diesel crack**: Globally, the crack spread maintained an oscillating or strengthening trend. Diesel crack led the market, and the 211 crack spread (with 1/2 diesel) was stronger than the 321 crack spread (with 1/3 diesel) in all regional markets, suggesting the continuation of strong market conditions [14]. - **US gasoline demand**: As of July 11, US crude inventories decreased unexpectedly, but refined product inventories increased unexpectedly. The refinery operating rate decreased slightly to 93.9%. US weekly crude exports contributed to the inventory decline. Gasoline demand after four - week smoothing decreased by more than 2 million barrels per day, but previous data were good, and further tracking is needed [16]. - **Global diesel inventory**: Diesel inventories in major consumer countries like the US and China are at multi - year lows. The long - term production contraction of Saudi Arabia and Russia has led to global crude oil lightening and supported diesel crack spreads [19]. - **Main energy institutions' July reports**: IEA, OPEC, and EIA's July reports showed no significant adjustment to demand, but IEA and EIA significantly increased supply expectations. There are differences in their expectations for the future. EIA's balance sheet shows relative balance in the third quarter and inventory surpluses in the following quarters [20]. - **OPEC+ balance sheet**: OPEC's July report predicts an increase in global oil demand and non - OPEC+ supply in 2025 and 2026. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ needs to increase crude oil supply by 400,000 barrels per day each year. It maintains the global economic growth forecast [22]. - **OPEC+ 8 - country production**: Excluding Kazakhstan, the other 7 OPEC+ countries well - executed production plans in June. Saudi Arabia may use a new calculation standard to report production, which is seen as evidence that OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia tends to compete for market share. There are rumors of a potential 548,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in August [25]. - **Supply disturbances**: EU sanctions on Russia have limited direct impact on Russian oil. Trump's threat of tariffs poses a risk after 50 days. Drone attacks in the Iraqi Kurdish region reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day, which can boost oil prices but has limited upside potential [27]. - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA, there is a 60% chance of above - average hurricane activity this year, which is relatively calmer than last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the US Gulf, and the probability of cyclone formation in the next 7 days is less than 40%, but the predicted location is close to platforms and refineries [29]. 3. Price, Spread, and Crack - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: The report presents various charts of crude oil futures and spot prices, including different regions and benchmarks [32]. - **Brent and WTI crude oil positions**: Charts show the net long positions of different participants in Brent and WTI futures and options [34][37]. - **Crude oil futures structure**: Displays the futures structure of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC crude oil [40]. - **Crude oil month - spread**: Presents the month - spread trends of different crude oils over time [43]. - **Cross - market futures and spot spreads**: Analyzes cross - market futures and spot spreads of different crude oils [46][49]. - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia has adjusted the official selling prices of different grades of crude oil to different regions in August compared to July [56]. - **Refined product prices and crack spreads**: Covers the prices and crack spreads of refined products in futures and spot markets in different regions [61][63][66][69]. 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global supply**: Includes the supply of non - OPEC, OPEC, and the total global crude oil supply, as well as the supply of major non - OPEC and OPEC countries [82][85][88]. - **Global demand**: Covers the demand of OECD, non - OECD, and the total global crude oil demand, as well as the demand of major countries and regions [106]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes inventories in different regions such as the US, OECD, Europe, Japan, ARA, Singapore, and China [115][118][120]. - **EIA balance sheet**: The EIA balance sheet shows that the global crude oil market will have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [136]. - **OPEC balance sheet**: OPEC's balance sheet predicts global oil demand and non - OPEC+ supply in 2025 and 2026, and calculates the required OPEC+ crude oil supply for balance [140][142][145]. - **OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage**: Provides data on OECD's land - based commercial inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, consumption days, and floating storage [147]. 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: Presents data on US crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude - chain inventory [151]. - **Supply data**: Includes the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel [154].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that the crude oil market will continue its oscillating pattern in the short - term, with increasing upward pressure. Supply - side factors such as the环比 growth of OPEC+ output and the seasonal restart of US refineries ease the risk of geopolitical supply disruptions. However, demand - side issues like gasoline inventory build - up and reduced imports from India limit the upside potential of prices. The accumulation of inventory strengthens the expectation of a marginal weakening in supply - demand balance. If the inventory draw during the US summer driving season falls short of expectations, it may trigger a further price correction [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 15, 2025, the price of the SC main contract closed at 518.2 yuan/barrel, down 9.3 yuan/barrel (-1.76%) from the previous trading day. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 66.83 dollars/barrel and 69.13 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads weakened by 1.34 dollars, and the SC continuous - contango 3 spread dropped from 26.0 yuan/barrel to 24.3 yuan/barrel [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: According to the OPEC monthly report on July 15, OPEC's crude oil production in June increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 2,723.5 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE increasing production and Iran and Libya reducing output. Iraq plans to increase the output of the Himreen oilfield to 60,000 barrels per day. US API data on July 16 showed an increase in crude oil imports and refinery throughput [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: OPEC maintains the 2025 demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day. The US gasoline inventory unexpectedly increased by 1.931 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and India's crude oil imports in June decreased, indicating weaker - than - expected terminal consumption [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 839,000 barrels, and the OECD inventory in May increased by 34.5 million barrels to 2.77 billion barrels, showing overall inventory pressure. The heating oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels, suggesting a structural differentiation in energy consumption [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: In the short - term, the market will remain range - bound with increasing upward pressure. Supply - side growth and refinery restarts ease supply risks, but demand - side issues and inventory build - up limit price increases. If the US summer driving season fails to reduce inventory as expected, prices may correct further [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 15, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices decreased, while the OPEC basket price remained unchanged. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and SC continuous - contango 3 all decreased. The US dollar index increased, and the S&P 500 and DAX indices decreased. US commercial crude oil, Cushing, and strategic reserve inventories all increased, and the US refinery weekly operating rate decreased slightly [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 15, 2025, most fuel oil futures and spot prices showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The Singapore and US distillate inventories also had corresponding changes, and the spreads between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and China also showed different trends [9]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On July 16, US API data showed an increase in crude oil imports and refinery throughput. According to the OPEC monthly report on July 15, the production of many OPEC member countries changed in June, with the overall OPEC production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day. Iraq plans to increase the output of the Himreen oilfield to 60,000 barrels per day [10][11]. - **Demand**: The OPEC monthly report expects global crude oil demand to be 106.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and 107.52 million barrels per day in 2026, and maintains the 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively [12]. - **Inventory**: In the week ending July 11, US API heating oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased unexpectedly, and crude oil inventory increased. The OECD inventory in May increased by 34.5 million barrels to 2.77 billion barrels. The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil, fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures remained unchanged [13]. - **Market Information**: The crude oil futures price decreased, and the market's reaction to the US threat of sanctions on Russia was calm. The fuel oil main contract price dropped. The market is concerned about possible US restrictions on European oil, and after the implementation of restrictions, the crude oil price may correct but will still maintain an oscillating pattern [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US and global oil rig numbers, US refinery operating rates and throughput, and various inventory data, etc., to visually display the changes in the industrial chain data [15][17][19]