Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper oscillated weakly, dropping 0.74% to $9,730/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.47% to 78,700 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remains in a loss state [1]. - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than the expected 2.6%, but the PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% and significantly lower than the previous value of 3.5%. The US added 104,000 ADP jobs in July, better than the expected 76,000 and the previous value of -33,000. The employment resilience and rising inflation make the Fed more cautious in monetary policy. The Fed's interest - rate meeting last night kept rates unchanged, and Powell did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut, emphasizing inflation risks and solid employment, which suppressed the expectation of a rate cut this year, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to soar [1]. - Domestically, important meetings pointed out that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, effectively release domestic demand potential, and continuously prevent and resolve risks in key areas [1]. - In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons; Comex inventory increased by 2,283 tons to 232,194 tons; SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons; BC copper warrants remained at 3,313 tons [1]. - Affected by the off - season, consumption remains weak. Recently, macro factors have a weak impact. The Fed suppresses the rate - cut expectation, the domestic situation stabilizes, and Trump does not impose additional tariffs on refined copper. The US dollar rebounds, and US copper prices fall, driving copper prices down. Although the impact on LME and Shanghai copper is relatively weak, from the perspective of the recent inventory build - up in three locations, the fundamental support is also quite weak. Therefore, copper is temporarily regarded as weak, and attention should be paid to whether new factors will emerge [1]. Aluminum - Alumina oscillated weakly. Overnight, AO2509 closed at 3,278 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.38%, and the open interest increased by 5,266 lots to 154,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly. Overnight, AL2509 closed at 20,615 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.02%, and the open interest decreased by 105 lots to 261,000 lots. Aluminum alloy oscillated weakly. Overnight, the main contract AD2511 closed at 20,025 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.05%, and the open interest decreased by 62 lots to 8,788 lots [1][2]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded to 3,248 yuan/ton. The spot price of aluminum ingots continued to be flat, and the quotation fell to 20,660 yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to Wuxi. The Foshan A00 aluminum reported at par. The processing fees of aluminum rods in many places remained stable, and the processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rods in Wuxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton; the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods remained stable [2]. - Due to the rainy season in Guinea, the export of bauxite has started to decline. Although the domestic short - term bauxite reserves are relatively sufficient, the cost support is obvious. Coupled with the intensification of anti - involution policies, the spot - futures arbitrage window for alumina has opened, and there is still a certain risk of a short squeeze under low warrants. Attention should be paid to the Guinea general election. If the bauxite export policy is tightened, it may strengthen the logic of mine - end disturbances [2]. - The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum has gradually changed, leading to a smooth inventory build - up of aluminum ingots. After the spot premium gradually flattened, the aluminum price started to oscillate in a narrow range, waiting for new guidance. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. If the rate cut exceeds expectations, it will form a new upward pull point. Currently, aluminum alloy lacks an independent driving force, and there is still room for long - position trading when the AD - AL spread corrects [2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.57% to $15,085/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.9% to 120,920 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased by 208,092 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 3,180 tons to 21,759 tons [2]. - In terms of premiums, the LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative; the premium of imported nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton. During the week, the domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased slightly, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained stable, and that of the Philippines decreased slightly; the center of the nickel - iron transaction price moved up to 920 yuan/nickel point; battery - grade nickel sulfate increased during the week, the MHP coefficient remained stable, and the high - grade nickel matte coefficient remained stable [2]. - In the stainless - steel sector, the raw - material prices showed differentiation. The slowdown in production and the rising prices led to a slight decline in inventory on a month - on - month basis. In terms of primary nickel, the domestic weekly inventory decreased slightly. Overall, in the short term, the prices of nickel and stainless steel were affected by market sentiment and weakened. The fundamentals changed little, with support from the prices of nickel - iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above, and the prices continued to oscillate [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - The price of flat - water copper increased by 260 yuan/ton to 79,270 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 53 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of oxygen - free copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 79,700 yuan/ton, and the price of low - oxygen copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 77,600 yuan/ton [3]. - The rough smelting TC remained unchanged at - 43 dollars/ton [3]. - LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,370 tons to 229,909 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons on a weekly basis. The social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.1 million tons to 19.6 million tons [3]. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton to - 49.8 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 58 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 93.6 yuan/ton to - 396.1 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River spot market decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of lead concentrates at the factory in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu all decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the processing fees remained unchanged [3]. - LME lead inventory increased by 6,025 tons to 276,375 tons, SHFE lead warrants increased by 1,002 tons to 61,934 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 919 tons to 63,254 tons [3]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 7.2 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 105 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss increased by 65 yuan/ton to - 595 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - The Wuxi aluminum price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,660 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai aluminum price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 20,660 yuan/ton. The Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 30 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of Shanxi low - grade and high - grade bauxite remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton and 640 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price of alumina remained unchanged at 380 dollars/ton, the price of Shandong alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3,215 yuan/ton, and the domestic - foreign price difference of alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to 190 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of pre - baked anodes remained unchanged at 6,322 yuan/ton. The processing fees of 6063 aluminum (φ90) in Guangdong and 1A60 aluminum rods in Guangdong remained unchanged at 270 yuan/ton and 450 yuan/ton respectively. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton [4]. - LME aluminum inventory increased by 4,250 tons to 460,350 tons, SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 1,857 tons to 51,217 tons, and the weekly total inventory increased by 6,968 tons to 115,790 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 0 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 1.2 million tons to 5.8 million tons [4]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 49.65 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 112.5 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 1449 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel - The price of Jinchuan nickel plates increased by 600 yuan/ton to 124,150 yuan/ton, the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, and the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by 100 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [4]. - The price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained unchanged at 3,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron (10 - 15%) remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port and 1.8% nickel ore at Lianyungang remained unchanged at 465 yuan/ton and 658 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The prices of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,400 yuan/ton, the price of 304/2B coil (matte) in Wuxi increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,000 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B coil (matte) in Foshan increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of battery - grade nickel sulfate (≥22%) and 523 - type and 622 - type nickel - cobalt - manganese decreased by 300 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - LME nickel inventory increased by 3,180 tons to 208,092 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 121 tons to 21,759 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 174 tons to 25,451 tons. The social inventory of nickel decreased by 57 tons to 40,281 tons [4]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 228 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 85 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 1214 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.1% to 22,690 yuan/ton, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged at $2,505.5/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly to 9.06 [5]. - The near - far month spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, the average domestic spot premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average imported zinc premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 dollars/ton to 2.5 dollars/ton. The prices of zinc alloy Zamak3 and Zamak5 increased by 110 yuan/ton to 23,305 yuan/ton and 23,855 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 21,700 yuan/ton [5]. - The weekly TC of domestic Zn50% zinc concentrate and imported Zn50% zinc concentrate remained unchanged at 3,850 yuan/metal ton and 240 dollars/dry ton respectively [5]. - SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,100 tons to 109,050 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons to 8.36 million tons [5]. - SHFE registered warrants decreased by 75 tons to 15,232 tons, and LME registered warrants remained unchanged at 57,600 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 1,832 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.1% to 267,740 yuan/ton, the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1% to $27,540/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 9.72 [5]. - The near - far month spread increased by 150 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton, the SMM spot price increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 268,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 2,300 yuan/metal ton to 260,800 yuan/metal ton and 256,800 yuan/metal ton respectively [5]. - The average domestic spot premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 30.5 dollars/ton to 10.5 dollars/ton [5]. - SHFE tin inventory increased by 269 tons to 7,417 tons, LME tin inventory increased by 90 tons to 1,945 tons. SHFE registered warrants decreased by 96 tons to 7,433 tons, and LME registered warrants increased by 15 tons to 1,365 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 24,191 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the tariff was 3% [5]. Chart Analysis Spot Premiums - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][9][11]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads - Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][14][16][17]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [18][20][22][24]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2

Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.5% with a 9-2 vote, signaling a hawkish stance due to inflation concerns[1] - Powell indicated that the distance to achieve inflation targets is greater than that for employment, suggesting a need for restrictive policy rates[1] - The market now expects the likelihood of a rate cut in September to be delayed until Q4 2025, with 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields projected to rise to 4.05% and 4.5% respectively in August and September[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Projections - Economic growth is showing signs of moderation, with consumer spending beginning to slow down, and GDP growth expected to be revised downwards[1] - The labor market remains balanced, but there are signs of downward risks with a slight decline in private sector job opportunities[1] - Inflation remains a concern, with tariffs beginning to impact goods inflation, while service sector inflation shows improvement[1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut has decreased to 47%, with an average expectation of 1.48 rate cuts for the year[1] - The market anticipates a new round of monetary easing after the appointment of a new Fed chair, with expectations for three rate cuts in 2026 potentially increasing to four or more[1] - The overall strategy suggests that the U.S. Treasury yields may initially rise before declining later in the year as the market adjusts to new monetary policies[1]

美联储公开市场委员会发布公告说，尽管净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示上半年经济活动放缓，失业率依然维持在低位，就 业市场条件依然稳固，通胀仍处于较高水平。公告还说，经济前景不确定性依然处于高位，委员会致力于实现充分就业并让通胀回落至 2%的目标。 美国联邦储备委员会30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币 政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变，符合市场预期。 美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员中，9人投票支持维持利率不变。美联储负责监管事务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和美联储理事 克里斯托弗·沃勒均投票支持降息25个基点，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒则缺席投票。据美国媒体报道，这是30多年来首次出现2名美 联储理事同时在有关利率决策的投票中表达不同意见的情况。 美联储 资料图 美联储主席鲍威尔在当天举行的记者会上表示，实施适度约束性的货币政策看起来是合适的。他说，美联储尚未就9月份货币政策作出决 定，这取决于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。 鲍威尔指出，虽然更高关税税率对一些商品价格的影响已经开始逐步显现，但其对经济活动和通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of tax services and compliance for businesses in the context of local tax regulations and support from tax authorities [4]. Group 1 - The article highlights the role of the Longgang District Taxation Bureau in providing tax services and support to local businesses [4]. - It mentions the significance of understanding tax regulations for effective business operations and compliance [4]. - The article encourages businesses to engage with tax authorities for better guidance and support [4].

Summary of FOMC Statement Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change, which aligns with market expectations [1] Interest Rate Decision - There was a notable division in the voting, with members Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [2] Inflation Outlook - The FOMC did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [3] Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high [4] Powell's Press Conference Insights - Current policy stance is considered favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, and future decisions will rely on incoming data [5] - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-over-year in June, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5%; most long-term inflation expectations align with the Fed's target [6] - The economy is viewed as being in a stable position, although indicators suggest a slowdown in growth; the large infrastructure bill is not seen as particularly stimulative [7] - The labor market remains balanced, but there are evident downside risks [8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with 30% to 40% of core inflation attributed to tariffs; it is considered premature to assess the full impact of tariffs [9] - The dissenting members are expected to clarify their positions in the coming days, with both advocating for a rate cut [10] Market Reaction - Following the statement, market volatility was minimal; however, during Powell's remarks, gold prices dropped by $50, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.38% and the 2-year yield approaching 4% [11] - U.S. stock markets faced downward pressure, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000 per coin [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [5][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, consistent with market predictions [5]. - This decision reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties and inflation concerns [6]. Voting Discrepancies - There was a notable dissent among the board members, with Governors Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [5][6]. Inflation Outlook - The Fed did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [6]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5% [6]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding future economic conditions remains high [6]. - The Fed's current policy stance is viewed as favorable, but decisions regarding future meetings will depend on incoming data [6][10]. Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the Fed may resume a loosening cycle in the fall if inflation pressures from tariffs are confirmed to be temporary [10]. - The market is closely monitoring the Fed's stance, with expectations of potential rate cuts depending on economic data trends [10][13].

新华财经北京7月31日电（郭洲洋）当地时间7月30日，美联储决定维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25%-4.50%之间不变，符合市场预期，这是美联储连续第五次决定维持利率不变。投票结果为9票赞 成、2票反对，1位理事缺席未投票。其中反对的两票来自由特朗普任命的两位理事——沃勒和鲍曼，两 人均认为当前的货币政策过于紧缩，他们倾向于在本次会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 经济评估 美联储声明指出，尽管净出口的波动仍在影响数据，但近期指标显示，今年上半年经济活动的增长有所 放缓。失业率仍处于低位，就业市场状况依然稳固。通胀仍略高于目标水平。美联储重申经济前景的不 确定性"仍然较高"，但删除了不确定性"已经减弱"的表述。 未来政策展望 为支持既定目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25%-4.50%。在评估是否以及何时进 一步调整该目标区间时，委员会将审慎分析最新数据、经济前景的演变以及风险平衡情况。委员会将继 续缩减所持的国债、机构债务和机构抵押支持证券。委员会坚定致力于实现最大就业，并将通胀率恢复 至2%的目标。 货币政策立场 委员会将持续关注新发布信息对经济前景的影响。如若出现可能妨碍 ...

1、货币政策 并没有针对9月FOMC货币政策会议做决定。 那些对7月美联储决议声明持异议的人将在未来一两天披露相关信息。 2、通胀 通胀朝着2%这一目标回落的过程已经过半。 服务通胀显著放慢，商品通胀正在上升。 5、去留问题 对于是否会在美联储主席任期届满之后继续担任理事，没有透露任何消息。 6、市场反应 并没有看到就业市场走弱。 4、关税 关税传导至价格的过程可能比之前预料的更慢。 判断特朗普关税对通胀的影响仍然太早。 当前所看到的仅仅是关税通胀的开端而已，预计后续发布的通胀数据将体现出更多的关税影响。 无法在通胀问题上单独划分出关税的影响。 某些公司将从特朗普关税中获益。 面临长期住房供应短缺问题，美国并没有建设足够多的住房。 3、就业 鲍威尔新闻发布会结束后，标普500指数跌0.35%，道指跌290点跌幅0.64%，纳指跌0.06%，半导体指数 涨0.54%，银行指数跌0.63%，罗素2000指数跌0.47%。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：通胀距离我们的目标比就业更远。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：在关于政策的讨论中，多数观点认为，当前通胀高于目标水平，就业处于目标水 平，因此政策应保持一定的限制性。 ...