新任美联储理事米兰有何主张？关于风险管理式降息，鲍威尔如何表态？一图速览>> 2025 代表当月暂停加息 有记录来美联储利率走势 2024/09 时隔四年重启宗公 1984/08 11.5% 2023/07 2001/01 5.5% 5.5% 2025/9 *图中数据为目标利率最高上限 2008/12 2020/03 0.25% 0.25% 美联储最新点阵图 2026 2027 2025 2028 点阵图显示,美联化 内部分歧巨大。 ■ 关于反对票: 50个基点的降息完全没有得到广 泛支持 ..... 过去五年，我们也曾实 施非常大幅度的加息和降息,它 通常发生在政策明显偏离、需要 讯速调整的时候。现在不是这样 的情况。今年迄今,我认为我们 的政策一直是对的。 在此次降息后, 赞J 年内按兵不动或再β 息2次的委员分别有 位和9位。外界预测， 有1位主张年内激进β 息150个基点的委 { 可能是刚进入美联们 理事会的米兰。 相比之下，2026年的预测分布更为分散,利率区间中值集中? 3.25%-3.75%，与目前的利率水平相比，有75个基点的降息空间。 美联储主席鲍威尔 机构候读 ■ 关于风险管理式降息: 在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year, amidst significant internal divisions among committee members [1][3][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates reflects a risk management approach, balancing upward inflation risks against downward employment risks [5][8]. - The dot plot indicates a split among committee members, with 6 supporting no further cuts and 9 favoring two additional cuts this year [1][3]. Economic Projections - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is concentrated between 3.25%-3.75%, suggesting a potential 75 basis points of room for further cuts compared to current levels [4]. - Projected GDP growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, with unemployment rates expected to decline slightly from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2027 [11]. Inflation and Employment Insights - Commodity price increases are identified as a significant driver of inflation, with expectations that these effects will intensify in the remaining months of the year and into the next [7]. - The labor market is showing signs of softening, which supports the rationale for the recent rate cut and potential future cuts [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was met with mixed reactions, highlighting a tug-of-war between dovish and hawkish members, leading to volatility in various markets [1][2][19]. Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating a lack of support for a larger cut of 50 basis points [1]. - The statement released was more dovish than expected, while the subsequent press conference was perceived as bearish, causing market fluctuations [2][19]. Economic Conditions - The Fed is facing challenges with both inflation rising and a weakening labor market, indicating a difficult position regarding its dual mandate [4][5]. - Inflation has been above the Fed's target for nearly six years, raising concerns about credibility if inflation expectations become unanchored [5][6]. Market Reactions - The Russell 2000 index rose nearly 2%, reflecting a positive response from interest rate-sensitive small-cap stocks [18]. - The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% but later increased, indicating market volatility in response to the Fed's announcements [18][19]. Future Outlook - Upcoming jobless claims data will be crucial for market sentiment, with expectations that higher claims could lead to a risk-negative day [23][24]. - The trajectory of the job market, inflation realities, and corporate guidance will significantly influence market conditions in the near term [25].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut since December 2024, lowering rates by 25 basis points, signaling a shift in focus from combating inflation to boosting employment [1][4][7] - The Fed's statement removed previous affirmations of a strong labor market, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, indicating rising risks in employment [4][7] - The median expectation from the Fed's dot plot suggests a total rate cut of 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, with two more 25 basis point cuts anticipated in the remaining meetings [4][10] Group 2 - Barclays Research predicts a slight increase in the unemployment rate and heightened risks in employment, suggesting the Fed may implement two more 25 basis point cuts in October and December [3][11] - The Fed's inflation forecasts have been adjusted, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expected to be 2.6% in 2026, indicating a longer path to achieving the 2% target [6][10] - The recent employment data shows a significant downward revision in non-farm payrolls, with the U.S. experiencing negative job growth over the past four months, justifying the 25 basis point cut [9][19] Group 3 - The appointment of Stephen I. Miran, a proponent of aggressive rate cuts, has introduced political dynamics into the Fed's decision-making process, as he voted against the 25 basis point cut [12][14] - The Fed's internal divisions regarding future rate cuts are evident, with varying predictions among officials about the number and magnitude of future cuts [15][19] - Market reactions to the rate cut have been mixed, with initial gains in U.S. stocks followed by a reversal, indicating uncertainty about the economic outlook and the effectiveness of the Fed's policies [17][19] Group 4 - Analysts express concerns that the current economic environment may lead to speculative bubbles if additional monetary easing is applied to an economy that is not weak [18][19] - The historical context of past rate cuts shows that while equities may experience volatility, gold often benefits from a declining dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets during such periods [25][19] - The Fed's recent actions are seen as part of a broader trend towards a more dovish monetary policy framework, reflecting changing macroeconomic conditions and labor market dynamics [15][19]

关于"为什么在通胀仍高时降息"，有记者提问，今日行动究竟是"保险式降息"，还是认为下行已成事 实？鲍威尔回应称，可以视为"风险管理型"的保险式降息：增长预测略有上调，但就业风险结构已显著 变化，就业"确实在冷却"，委员会需要把这点反映到政策设置中。有记者追问，如果就业放缓部分与移 民减速有关，而通胀仍明显高于目标，为何优先降息？鲍威尔解释，劳动力供给与需求双降，需求降得 更快，失业率上行即是证据；委员会必须在双重使命之间权衡，近期通胀二次上行的广泛性与持续性风 险相较数月前有所缓和，而就业的下行风险上升。 （原标题：鲍威尔称此次降息是风险管理决策 政策重点从通胀转向就业） 智通财经APP获悉，周三，在美联储公布最新议息决议后，主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，此次行动属 于"风险管理型"降息，随着就业市场降温、通胀仍高于目标且短期上行风险偏上，委员会选择朝更中性 的政策姿态迈出一步，同时保持"逐会决策(meeting-by-meeting)"，以便根据数据与风险再平衡灵活调 整。 从宏观现状出发，鲍威尔称近期指标显示经济动能放缓，今年上半年美国GDP增速约1.5%，低于去年 的2.5%；消费放缓是主要拖累，企业投资较 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, highlighting the divide between dovish and hawkish perspectives on economic indicators and their implications for monetary policy [1][2][3]. Employment Data - The addition of 22,000 jobs is viewed by dovish analysts as a sign of impending recession, while hawkish analysts interpret it as a cooling labor market. The three-month average unemployment rate has risen by 0.5%, indicating a 62% probability of recession [2]. Inflation Metrics - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands at 2.6%, while core services inflation is at 5.1%. Dovish analysts focus on the six-month annualized rate returning to 2.2%, whereas hawkish analysts warn of persistent core service inflation. Quantitative models suggest that two rate cuts could lead to a rebound in core inflation to 3.3% by Q1 2026 [3]. Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. national debt has reached $34 trillion, with interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion annually. This situation poses a dilemma for policymakers: not cutting rates could lead to escalating interest costs, while cutting rates risks triggering a second wave of inflation [4]. Dot Plot Insights - The dot plot indicates a median forecast of 75 basis points in rate cuts for the year, with the most hawkish member suggesting only 25 basis points and the most dovish suggesting 125 basis points. Each 25 basis point change is estimated to affect global equity and bond markets by approximately $500 billion [4]. Wealth Transfer Dynamics - The article suggests that the anticipated rate cuts are not merely about easing monetary policy but represent a pre-loaded transfer of wealth, impacting various market participants differently [5]. Emerging Markets Impact - A weaker dollar due to rate cuts could benefit countries like Argentina, Turkey, and Indonesia, which have borrowed nearly $500 billion in the past two years. However, countries with high current account deficits and low foreign reserves may face significant challenges [6]. Currency Valuation Concerns - The potential for a stronger euro and yen due to U.S. rate cuts raises concerns for European and Japanese exporters, as currency fluctuations could significantly impact profit margins [7][8]. Leverage in Financial Markets - The article notes that hedge funds have increased their leverage to an 18-month high, raising concerns about market stability. The U.S. stock market's valuation relative to GDP has reached 210%, indicating potential risks if inflation rebounds and interest rate expectations shift [9]. Unconventional Developments - The article highlights three significant trends: 1. Saudi Arabia's decision to allow transactions in yuan for oil sales, which could undermine the dollar's dominance [9]. 2. Central banks in Poland, Czech Republic, and Turkey have collectively increased gold reserves by 127 tons, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against inflation [10]. 3. Major tech companies are projected to spend $320 billion in capital expenditures, with a significant portion financed through debt, making them vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations [10]. Recommendations for Individuals - The article provides financial strategies for individuals, including diversifying investments into dollar-denominated money market funds, domestic short-term bonds, and gold ETFs to hedge against potential economic instability [10].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9940, opening at 10128 and reporting a decrease of 1.67% to 9916, with a high of 10146 and a low of 9890, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [1] - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on September 17 at 2 PM Eastern Time [3] - According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while a larger cut of 50 basis points has only a 4% probability [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces a dual mandate of maintaining low inflation while achieving full employment, which can conflict; rising inflation necessitates rate hikes that increase borrowing costs, while high unemployment calls for rate cuts to stimulate hiring [5] - Recent labor market data shows signs of weakness, with job cuts in several sectors, including manufacturing, leading to a significant slowdown in hiring activity, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month from June to August, compared to an expected average of 106,000 for 2024 [6] - The challenge of balancing the conflicting goals of inflation control and employment growth is highlighted as a significant task for the Federal Reserve [7]

Group 1 - The core inflation in the US remains sticky, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.4% in August compared to 0.2% in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][2] - Weekly jobless claims have increased to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, suggesting a weakening labor market [1][2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction expected, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% [1][2][3] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 76% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts this year due to the deteriorating labor market conditions [2][3] - Economic experts suggest that the Federal Reserve's focus is shifting from inflation to employment and economic weakness, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September [3][4] - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve is increasing, complicating its policy decisions amid strong inflation and weak employment data [4] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5%, despite recent trade agreements with the US, which have alleviated some economic concerns [5][6] - The Canadian central bank is anticipated to restart rate cuts, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction to 2.5% due to rising unemployment and GDP contraction [8][9] - The UK central bank faces complexities in its monetary policy due to mixed economic signals, with recent inflation data complicating the outlook for further rate cuts [7][8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potentially chaotic meeting, with uncertainty surrounding the number of voting officials due to ongoing court rulings and Senate votes [1][2] - The Fed is expected to vote on interest rate cuts, with futures markets pricing in three cuts for the year, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4] - The outcome of the meeting may depend on the approval of CEA Chair Steven Myron and the potential for dissenting opinions regarding the extent of rate cuts [5][10] Group 2 - Market reactions to the Fed's decisions are anticipated to be influenced by the guidance provided during the meeting and the overall sentiment regarding inflation concerns [7][8] - There is speculation about how individual votes may impact the average outlook of the Fed, with particular attention to any extreme forecasts that could shift market expectations [9][10]

Group 1 - The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but unchanged from the same month last year, indicating overall employment stability [1][4] - The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group, excluding students, was 17.8% in July, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous month and 0.7 percentage points from the same month last year [3] - The unemployment rate for the main labor force aged 30-59 remained stable at 3.9% in August, unchanged from both the previous month and the same month last year [4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate for migrant workers decreased to 4.7% in August, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, which is lower than the national urban surveyed unemployment rate [4] - Major companies have started their campus recruitment in September, which is expected to alleviate the employment pressure on recent graduates [5] - A report indicated that most companies complete 70%-80% of their annual campus recruitment through autumn recruitment, making it a critical period for job seekers [6] Group 3 - Some companies are not only targeting the 2026 graduates but also accepting applications from graduates of 2023-2025, which helps those who are still unemployed [6][7] - Skills training programs are being offered to unemployed graduates, indicating a growing and maturing vocational training system aimed at improving employment prospects [7][8] - The emphasis on skills over degrees is being promoted, which aligns with the goal of creating a skills-oriented society [8]