Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler and President Trump's subsequent actions indicate a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership and monetary policy direction, which could have significant implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Changes - Adriana Kugler announced her resignation from the Federal Reserve Board effective August 8, 2023, to return to Georgetown University as a professor [2]. - Trump's excitement over Kugler's resignation suggests he may seek to nominate individuals aligned with his economic views to the Federal Reserve Board, potentially influencing future interest rate policies [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, all of whom are permanent voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with appointments made by the President and confirmed by the Senate [2]. Group 2: Employment Data and Market Reaction - The U.S. labor market showed disappointing results in July, with only 73,000 new jobs added, leading to a significant drop in the stock market, with over $1 trillion in market value lost [5]. - Trump's dismissal of Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre was based on allegations of political manipulation of employment data, although no evidence was provided [5]. - Following the release of the poor employment data, market expectations for a rate cut in September surged from under 40% to 80% [4].

Market Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs last month, falling short of the expected increase of 104,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [3] - The employment growth for the previous two months was significantly revised downwards, causing surprise among analysts [3] - Employment growth has been concentrated in previously understaffed sectors such as healthcare and social assistance, with a steady decline in the breadth of job creation in recent months [3] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones down 542.40 points (1.23%) to 43,588.58, the Nasdaq down 2.24% to 20,650.13, and the S&P 500 down 1.60% to 6,238.01 [1] - Amazon's stock dropped by 8.3% due to lower-than-expected revenue guidance for the third quarter [5] - Other major tech stocks also performed poorly, with Apple down 2.5%, Nvidia down 2.3%, and Tesla and Microsoft down 1.8% [6] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the two-year yield dropping by 26.5 basis points to 3.7% and the ten-year yield down by 15.1 basis points to 4.22% [4] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to over 80% according to the FedWatch tool [4] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's survey indicated that U.S. consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month in July, although overall market sentiment remains negative [3] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged due to increased risk aversion, with October contracts surpassing $3,400, marking a 2.02% increase [8] - Oil prices were pressured by economic uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase expectations, with WTI crude down 2.79% to $67.33 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.83% to $69.67 per barrel [7]

Market Overview - On August 1, U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.23%, S&P 500 down 1.60%, and Nasdaq down 2.24%, marking the largest decline since April. The total market capitalization of U.S. stocks decreased by over $1 trillion [1] - Major technology stocks also experienced significant declines, with Amazon dropping over 8% despite reporting second-quarter revenue of $167.702 billion, exceeding market expectations of $162.047 billion. However, the company's third-quarter operating profit guidance was below expectations, raising concerns about its cloud business growth [2] Employment Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%. Additionally, previous months' employment figures were significantly revised downward, with May's job additions revised from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [2] Economic Indicators - The uncertainty stemming from U.S. government tariff policies has led to increased caution among American businesses, contributing to a rapid deterioration in the labor market. The ISM reported that the manufacturing PMI for July was 48%, down from 49% in June [3] - Following the release of the latest economic data, the U.S. dollar index experienced a significant drop, falling from 100.23 to 98.66 within half an hour, reflecting a daily decline of 1.38% [3] Tariff Policy - On July 31, President Trump signed an executive order establishing "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries and regions, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%. Notably, tariffs on Canada were increased from 25% to 35%, effective August 1 [3] Commodity Prices - Oil prices saw a significant decline, while spot gold prices surged, surpassing $3,360 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the efforts of U.S. Vice President Vance and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer to present a positive outlook on weak employment data, attributing some employment trends to the immigration policies of the Trump administration [1] Employment Data Analysis - Vice President Vance shared a chart indicating an increase in the number of native-born workers, while the employment rate of foreign-born workers has declined, suggesting a direct impact from Trump's immigration policies [1] - Labor Secretary DeRemer stated in an interview that despite unexpected revisions in employment data, job growth remains on a positive trajectory since Trump took office, with nearly 500,000 new jobs created, particularly in healthcare and construction sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump announced plans to dismiss the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics following the release of weak employment data [1] Group 1 - The announcement comes in the context of disappointing employment figures, indicating potential dissatisfaction with the current labor market assessment [1] - The decision to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics director may reflect broader concerns about the accuracy and reliability of employment data [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：就业数据很重要，修正是更重要的。就业市场从强劲水平放缓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic does not believe that employment data will influence the FOMC decision this week [1] Group 1 - Bostic's statement indicates a strong stance on the independence of monetary policy decisions from short-term employment data [1] - The focus remains on broader economic indicators rather than just employment figures [1]

白宫经济顾问委员会主席Miran：5-6月的就业数据修正；7月份的数据还不错。 ...

金十数据7月31日讯，Van Lanschot Kempen投资策略师Joost Van Leenders在一份报告中表示，美联储周 三决定维持利率不变后，9月份降息的门槛已经提高，尽管有两名反对者投票赞成降息25个基点。这位 资深投资策略师说，美联储将获得两轮通胀和就业数据，但这些数据的变化不大可能大到需要降息的程 度。他说，要降息，通胀应该向美联储2%的目标缓和，但鉴于我们预计的进口关税传导效应，这种情 况实现的可能性极低。另一种情况是，劳动力市场需要大幅走弱。 机构：美联储9月份降息的门槛已经提高 ...

Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time[4] - The ADP employment report for July showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, exceeding expectations[4] - The preliminary annualized GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3%, higher than anticipated[4] Market Performance - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 7.38 basis points to 3.941%[4] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.25 basis points to 3.960%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 4.57 basis points to 4.368%[4] Corporate Earnings - Microsoft's Q4 net profit reached $27.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%[4] - CATL reported a net profit of 30.512 billion yuan for the first half of the year, up 33.02% year-on-year[4] Stock Market Indices - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.15%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,461.28, down 0.38%[5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,362.90, down 0.12%[5]