Core Insights - The US economy shows strong performance, with the dollar on track for its longest consecutive rise since February [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased by 0.3%, reaching its highest level since June 23, marking five consecutive days of gains [1] - Recent US economic growth and inflation data exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [1] Economic Performance - In Q2, US economic activity rebounded slightly due to a modest increase in consumer spending [1] - The core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose by 2.5% year-on-year [1] - ADP private sector employment data indicates that the labor market remains robust [1] Market Implications - Market perceptions may suggest that the Fed's future rate cuts will be slower and delayed [1] - If Fed Chair Powell maintains a relatively neutral policy outlook, the dollar's interest rate attractiveness may further increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are fluctuating within a range of $3350 to $3300 ahead of key U.S. data and Federal Reserve policy announcements, with a downward trend being observed [2][4]. Market Analysis - The technical outlook for gold prices indicates a downward resistance path, with prices hovering below the critical resistance level of $3345 as traders remain cautious before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement [3][4]. - Following a rebound from a three-week low of $3302, gold prices are under pressure as traders hesitate to establish new positions, awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on the U.S. Q1 GDP [4][5]. - The U.S. economy is expected to show an annualized growth of 2.4% in Q2, a recovery from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1, while core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are projected at 2.4%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter [4]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Disappointing U.S. economic data could reignite market expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, starting in September, which would likely weaken the dollar and boost gold prices [5]. - Conversely, stronger-than-expected U.S. data may counter these expectations, strengthening the dollar and negatively impacting gold prices [6]. - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% in July, as policymakers assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and growth [7]. Market Sentiment - According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 64% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September [8]. - Divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cuts could strengthen dovish expectations, supporting non-yielding gold prices and potentially raising questions about the Fed's independence, which may negatively affect the dollar [9]. Technical Analysis - The short-term technical outlook for gold prices remains unchanged ahead of the Federal Reserve's decisions, with prices appearing weak below the critical resistance level of $3345 [12][13]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the midpoint, currently near 47, indicating bearish potential [14]. - If selling pressure re-emerges, gold prices may retest the three-week low of $3302, with further declines potentially testing the July 9 low of $3283 [15]. - The last line of defense for gold buyers is at the June 30 low of $3248, while reclaiming the $3345 level is crucial for initiating a meaningful rebound, targeting the next resistance at $3380 and aiming for $3400 [16][17].

Gold Market - Gold prices have continued to decline slightly, but the downward momentum has noticeably slowed, maintaining an overall oscillating pattern [2] - This week, significant data releases including U.S. employment figures, inflation data, and Q2 GDP growth, along with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, may impact market sentiment [2] - Market predictions are generally pessimistic, with the effects of tariff policies on the U.S. economy becoming more apparent [2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold this month; a rate cut could raise questions about its independence and potentially lead to a surge in inflation, undermining confidence in the U.S. dollar [2] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bearish candle, indicating a continued oscillating trend, with long-term moving averages acting as a mid-term dividing line [2] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a limited rebound, but fundamental pressures are increasing, potentially leading to a downward break in the long-term trend [4] - OPEC+ representatives have indicated a temporary plan to restore production, with expectations that Saudi Arabia and partners will approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September [4] - If the new production plan is approved, eight core OPEC+ members will fully reverse the 2.2 million barrels per day cut implemented in 2023 a year earlier than planned [4] - Seasonal demand provides some support for oil prices, but weakening consumption may create pressure from both supply and demand sides, with a long-term possibility of prices testing the $55 per barrel level [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a significant decline, indicating that the upward trend is likely complete, although short-term divergence appears excessive [6] - The price has entered a previous small range, forming a downward structure, with a focus on the resistance level at $5.63 per pound [6] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candle, signaling the completion of an upward structure and the beginning of a mid-term adjustment [7] - The 4-hour chart indicates significant overselling, suggesting a potential for adjustment, with attention on the resistance level at 41,260 [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the common concerns of investors regarding losses and market predictions, emphasizing the importance of profitability in investments [1] - It highlights the ongoing search for solutions to recover losses, indicating a persistent struggle among investors [1] Group 2 - A risk data warning is issued for the week, noting significant upcoming economic events including the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada meetings, as well as key economic indicators such as consumer confidence and employment data [3] - The article outlines a schedule of important economic releases, including the PCE price index and non-farm payroll report, which could impact market sentiment [3] Group 3 - The analysis of gold prices indicates a bearish trend, with a significant drop after reaching a key support level, suggesting continued weakness in the market [5] - The article identifies specific price levels for trading strategies, recommending short positions around 3350 with targets set at 3325 and 3310 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is mainly in a wide - range oscillation. The probability of unexpected confrontation is decreasing, but market uncertainties still exist. Silver has a significant advantage over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk preferences are opened and is currently in an upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether the change in photovoltaic expectations affects the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations [2]. - The global trade situation shows signs of easing, which is one of the main reasons for the pressure on gold prices. The trade agreements between the US and other countries boost market risk preferences and reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe - haven asset [2]. - The robust performance of US economic data is another factor driving down gold prices. Strong economic data support the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level, and push up the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [3]. 3. Summary by Related Information Impact of Trade Situation on Precious Metals - The US has reached or is expected to reach trade agreements with multiple countries. The trade agreement between the US and Japan reduces the automobile import tariff to 15% and exempts some goods from punitive tariffs. The US - EU trade negotiation also shows positive progress, with an expected 15% benchmark tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% level. These reduce investors' concerns about economic turmoil and weaken the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset [2]. Impact of Economic Data on Precious Metals - As of the week of July 19, the US initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest in three months, far lower than the expected 226,000, indicating a stable labor market. The US composite PMI in July rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6, and the service PMI climbed to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic expansion. These data support the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level and push up the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, leading to a decline in gold prices [2][3].

Group 1 - The core theme for 2025 is the weakness of the US dollar, which has shown its worst performance since 1973 in the first half of this year [1] - The performance of US Treasury bonds has also been poor, with a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow during periods of heightened uncertainty [1] - In contrast, demand for gold ETFs has significantly increased, with total assets under management (AUM) rising by 41% to $383 billion, and total holdings increasing by 397 tons to 3,616 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022 [1] Group 2 - As of July 18, spot gold closed at $3,350.05, showing slight fluctuations, with a "deep V" pattern reflecting intensified market dynamics [1] - Economic data has been strong, suppressing rate cut expectations and boosting the dollar, while tariff policies have raised inflation expectations, driving investors to allocate to gold for risk hedging [1] - Gold is currently at a balance point between short-term economic strength and long-term inflation concerns, highlighting its safe-haven value [1] Group 3 - Recent reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting potential rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: This week, London gold rose 0.09%, and London silver rose 2.05%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 89.4 to 87.5. Gold prices remained in a narrow - range oscillation. Given the strong US economic data, gold is hard to show a trend. Silver is relatively stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to correct. If silver breaks through 9000 yuan/kg, it may reach around 40 dollars in the third quarter, but there is downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weakening silver paste demand [10]. - **Copper**: Downstream buyers purchase at low prices, and the macro - sentiment improves marginally, supporting price increases. Domestically, copper inventories decrease, and the spot premium strengthens. Globally, total inventories increase mainly due to rising overseas inventories. Uncertainties exist in the macro - environment, but there is strong bottom support. It is recommended to hold long - position cautiously and conduct calendar spread arbitrage [88]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Performance - Gold prices were in a narrow - range oscillation with a slight increase. Silver broke through 9000 yuan/kg, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures showed different changes. COMEX and ETF positions also had corresponding adjustments [11]. Price Spread - **Overseas**: The London spot - COMEX gold and silver spreads had specific changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 15.55 dollars/ounce [16][19]. - **Domestic**: Gold and silver's domestic term spreads and inter - month spreads were at different positions in the historical range. For example, the gold term spread was at the lower end of the historical range [22]. Inventory and Position - COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, and the registered warrant ratios changed. Gold and silver futures inventories also had corresponding adjustments. ETF positions of gold decreased, while those of silver increased [42][44][54][56]. Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10YTIPS continued to decline [65]. Copper Market Performance - LME copper inventories increased significantly, and the 0 - 3 spot discount widened. Domestic copper inventories decreased, and the spot premium strengthened [88][89]. - Four - market copper volatility increased, with COMEX copper volatility reaching around 33% and LME copper at around 7% [94]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The tightness of copper concentrate supply weakened, the spot TC increased marginally, and the smelting loss narrowed. The refined - scrap spread recovered but was still below the break - even point [88]. - **Demand**: In the domestic consumption off - season, orders from processing enterprises weakened marginally in July, but low prices attracted downstream and end - users to buy. The apparent consumption was good, with power grid investment and the growth of air - conditioner and new - energy vehicle production providing support [88]. Trading Strategies - Hold long - position cautiously for single - side trading and conduct calendar spread arbitrage due to the decrease in domestic inventories and the strengthening of the spot premium [88].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250720 鲍威尔维护独立性令美联储 9 月难降息 2025 年 07 月 20 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《关税落地后，美国通胀为何连续不 及预期？》 2025-07-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：本周美国经济数据边际走强，"软数据"密歇根大学消费者 信心指数与"硬数据"零售销售均好于预期，美股上行；特朗普关税威 胁一度令美债利率抬升，但随后在 PPI 数据不及预期和美联储理事沃 勒的鸽派发言带动下，美债利率有所回落，10 年期美债利率全周升 0.62bps 至 4.416%。本周公布的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the weakening US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and mixed economic signals from the US, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors Impacting Gold Prices - Gold prices have recently increased by 0.4% to $3353.25 per ounce due to a softening dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - Positive US real estate data, including building permits and new housing starts, has reduced recession fears, providing some support for the dollar and exerting pressure on gold [2]. - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve officials' views on monetary policy have created market volatility, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts while others suggest maintaining high rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Sentiment - The US June CPI data indicates signs of rising inflation, which may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, impacting gold's attractiveness [3]. - The interplay of Federal Reserve policies, US economic data, and tariff uncertainties is creating a complex environment for gold prices, with potential inflation pressures enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Technical analysis shows gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with key resistance levels around $3375 and support levels at $3340-$3345 [4][6]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on boundary breakouts, with potential upward movement towards $3380 if support levels hold [4][6]. - Specific trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $3373-$3375 and buying on dips around $3340-$3345, with defined stop-loss levels to manage risk [7][8].