1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Oscillation [1] - Silver: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driving factors for the rise in gold prices, such as the US government debt issue and the long - term logic of de - dollarization trading, remain intact, determining the bull market pattern of gold. The issue of the Fed's independence still has room to ferment in the long run, which will push up the gold price when it resonates with other assets. In the fourth quarter, gold is expected to enter an oscillation phase [4]. - The silver price increase is basically in place. In the fourth quarter, the London silver is expected to trade in the range of $40 - 50 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai silver in the range of 9000 - 12000 yuan per kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - quarter Gold Market Review - After the gold price rose to a maximum of $3500 per ounce due to tariffs in the first half of the year, it entered a range - bound oscillation. From late April to late August, London gold oscillated horizontally in the range of $3100 - 3500 per ounce. A new upward trend started at the end of August. The weak non - farm employment reports from August to September strengthened the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts, driving capital into gold. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, entering the second half of the rate - cut cycle. Trump's intervention in the Fed also contributed to the rise in gold prices. In the third quarter, the gold price rose by 16%, with a 11% increase in September alone [13][16]. 3.2 Standing at the Historical High and Looking Ahead 3.2.1 The US Economy Is in a State of Decline but Not in Recession, and Stagflation Needs Further Verification - The US economic growth has gradually slowed down in the first three quarters. Although consumption has some resilience, the economic endogenous expansion momentum is weakening. After the equal - tariff policy was implemented in August, its impact on the real economy remains to be seen. The labor market has weakened significantly in the third quarter, and inflation has stopped falling and rebounded. The potential risk of stagflation has not been ruled out and requires hard data verification [22]. 3.2.2 The Sharp Drop in Employment Data Strengthens the Expectation of Rate Cuts - In the third quarter, the US labor market reached a turning point. The non - farm employment data was significantly revised downwards, and the average non - farm employment increase in the past four months was only 26,000. The employment market has no supply - demand gap, and the unemployment rate may rise further. Most service industries and the manufacturing industry are reducing employment. The market's trust in the data quality of the US Department of Labor is also declining [34]. 3.2.3 Inflation Rebounds and Faces Upward Risks - Since the second half of 2024, US inflation has stopped falling and rebounded. In the third quarter of 2025, inflation rebounded again. Although the impact of tariffs has not fully manifested, core inflation still has upward space. In August, the core PCE increased to 2.9% year - on - year [45]. 3.3 The Fed's Independence Is Disturbed, and There Are Concerns about Fiscal Deficit Monetization 3.3.1 The Fed Resumes Rate Cuts, and Its Independence Is Worrisome - In the third quarter, after the significant decline in non - farm employment data, the Fed turned dovish and cut interest rates in September. The market expects the Fed to cut rates twice more in the fourth quarter. The internal division between hawks and doves in the Fed has intensified. Trump's interference in the Fed's personnel has undermined the Fed's independence, which may drive up the gold price in the long run [52][55]. 3.3.2 The US Fiscal Deficit Continues to Expand, and the Logic of Gold as a Credit Hedge Remains - In the 2025 fiscal year, the US fiscal deficit has continued to grow, reaching $1.8 trillion as of August, and the deficit - to - GDP ratio has expanded to - 6.6%. The Trump administration aims to maintain economic growth, which requires continued fiscal expansion and rate cuts. The US government debt problem is difficult to solve quickly, and the combination of high inflation and low interest rates will lead to a decline in the US dollar's credit, making the logic of going long on gold firm [60][65]. 3.3.3 Overseas Markets Increased Their Allocation of Gold in the Third Quarter - In the process of the continuous rise in the gold price, there has been a rotation in the allocation of gold between overseas and Chinese markets. In the third quarter, due to the weakening of the US employment market, the strengthening of rate - cut expectations, and the outbreak of the Fed's independence issue, overseas markets increased their long - position sentiment towards gold. The North American gold ETF holdings increased significantly, while the domestic market showed less enthusiasm for gold [69][70]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - For the fourth quarter, the London gold is expected to trade in the range of $3400 - 4000 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai gold in the range of 800 - 900 yuan per gram. The domestic gold is expected to remain at a discount to overseas gold. The London silver is expected to trade in the range of $40 - 50 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai silver in the range of 9000 - 12000 yuan per kilogram [77].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3867.093 per ounce, reflects global capital's response to the political and economic instability in the United States, driven by a budget standoff between the two major political parties [2][3]. Group 1: Political and Economic Factors - The immediate catalyst for the gold price increase is the intense standoff between the U.S. political parties regarding the expiration of the Affordable Care Act and the new budget proposal, leading to concerns over a potential government shutdown [2]. - Trump's abrupt cancellation of budget negotiation meetings has heightened market fears regarding the stability of political negotiations, contributing to a deeper anxiety about U.S. policy continuity [3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by increasing risks in the job market, has weakened the dollar and reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August, providing a solid support for gold prices [4]. - The trend of central banks diversifying away from the dollar, with the share of dollar assets in global central bank reserves dropping from 72% in 2000 to 58% by 2025, has made gold a core choice for foreign exchange reserve diversification [4]. Group 3: Investment Demand and Market Trends - The demand for gold as an investment is becoming increasingly diversified, with significant inflows into gold ETFs from North America and Europe, as institutions view gold as an effective tool for portfolio diversification and risk hedging [5]. - Despite potential risks from the U.S. promoting stablecoin development, the overarching trends of political division and expectations of loose monetary policy in the U.S. suggest that gold's status as a "ultimate safe-haven asset" will continue to be highlighted [5]. - The current surge in gold prices is fundamentally a response from global capital to the "American chaos," indicating that the bull market for gold is far from over [5].

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut, with only the new member Milan voting against it, advocating for a 50 bp cut[6] - The dot plot indicates an increase in expected rate cuts from 4 to 5 times between 2025 and 2027, with 2025 seeing an adjustment from 2 to 3 cuts[8][11] - Economic forecasts show an increase in GDP growth and inflation predictions, while unemployment rates are expected to remain low[7] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped from 4.05% to below 4%, but rebounded to around 4.08% after Powell's press conference[11] - Short-term rates have fully priced in the rate cuts, while long-term rates remain constrained by high inflation and term premiums[11] Future Considerations - The independence of the Federal Reserve may be tested in 2026, particularly with political pressures from the Trump administration and upcoming midterm elections[5][11] - The market's current pricing of rate cuts may be overly optimistic, with potential volatility if inflation rises or employment data improves unexpectedly[16] Investment Strategy - Buying long-term bonds on dips may be a favorable strategy, as the market appears to have adequately priced in long-term risks[17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market has continued to rise despite strong economic data and a rebound in the US dollar, primarily supported by inflows from overseas ETFs and futures [1][2] - The international gold price approached $3800 per ounce during the week, with other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium also experiencing significant increases, boosting overall market sentiment [1] - Recent US economic data showed positive performance, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rising by 0.6% in August, slightly above expectations, and the second-quarter GDP being revised up to a growth of 3.8%, also better than market forecasts [2] Group 2 - The domestic gold price is currently facing some unfavorable factors, with the domestic and foreign price difference reaching -11 yuan per gram, influenced by expectations of RMB appreciation [2] - The long-term price difference center is expected to normalize around 2 yuan per gram, indicating potential recovery in the domestic and foreign price difference in the future [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the importance of the Fed's independence and expressed a cautious outlook on future interest rate cuts, balancing high inflation risks with a weak job market [2] Group 3 - The Bosera Gold ETF (159937) and its connecting funds (002610, 002611) track the performance of gold prices in RMB by investing in gold spot contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, providing investors with a new way to invest in gold [3]

"预付款？ 这分明是经济保护费！ "特朗普一句轻飘飘的"那是预付款"，让日韩两国的外交官和财经官 员们彻夜难眠。 9000亿美元，相当于掏空韩国家底的四分之三，日本外汇储备的一大半，现在被要求 像网购商品一样"先付款后发货"。 2025年9月26日，特朗普在白宫接受媒体采访时，亲手划下了这条硬杠：日本5500亿，韩国3500亿，一 个字不能少，一个子不能欠。 而就在他说这话时，韩国总统李在明正在计算一个残酷的数字：韩国的 外汇储备总共才4163亿美元，3500亿美元相当于其84%的家底。 他警告，如果真这样支付，韩国可能 重演1997年的金融危机噩梦。 韩国的"细水长流"计划撞上特朗普的"先交钱"铁板 这场风波并非突如其来。 早在今年7月，美韩之间曾有过一个口头协议。 韩国原计划设立一个3500亿美 元的对美投资基金，但他们设想的是"缓缓图之"。 按照韩方的构想，这笔钱不是一次性现金支付，而 是分批走账，拉上现代、三星这样的大企业，再加上国有基金，搞一个混合模式。 其中1500亿投向造 船业，1500亿由私营企业出资，还留出一部分作为谈判的"回旋余地"。 但特朗普根本不接受这种"分期付款"或"模糊承诺"。 他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve has created a divergence from the mainstream stance, with Miran advocating for a significant reduction in real interest rates despite inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy and Independence - Miran voted against a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, suggesting a 50 basis point cut instead, and called for a further reduction of 1.25 percentage points by 2025, targeting a federal funds rate range of 2.75% to 3% [2] - The Federal Reserve's independence is increasingly questioned, particularly in light of political influences and the role of Congress in confirming appointments [3][4] - The current political climate raises concerns about the balance of power between the Federal Reserve and the executive branch, with potential implications for monetary policy [3][8] Group 2: Congressional Oversight and Accountability - Congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve has been criticized as weak, with multiple inquiries from Senate Democrats going unanswered [4][6] - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and Congress is described as interdependent, highlighting the need for congressional support to maintain the Fed's credibility [4][5] - There is a growing concern that the executive branch is stepping into a supervisory role, which could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [4][8] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Context - Inflation reached a peak of 9.1% in 2022, driven by supply chain issues and significant fiscal stimulus, which were beyond the Fed's control [5] - The Federal Reserve's delayed response to rising inflation signals has been a point of contention, with some economists attributing part of the blame to the Fed's new policy framework adopted in 2020 [5][6] - The political polarization in Congress has weakened oversight of the Federal Reserve, complicating the institution's ability to navigate economic challenges [8]

Group 1 - Precious metal prices surged, with gold reaching a historic high of $3,812 per ounce, marking a nearly 45% increase year-to-date [1][4] - The rise in precious metals is supported by ongoing market supply tightness and increasing inflows into ETFs focused on these metals [4] - Gold stocks in the Hong Kong market saw significant gains, with increases of over 7% for some companies [4][5] Group 2 - Concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown are causing traders to closely monitor the situation, as it may delay the release of key employment data [6] - A weak employment report could provide more justification for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy in its upcoming meeting [9] - The outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions remains uncertain, with differing views among officials and some economic data performing better than expected [9] Group 3 - Other precious metals are also experiencing unprecedented supply tightness, with significant increases in leasing rates for silver, platinum, and palladium [10] - Market concerns have been heightened by the potential inclusion of platinum group metals in the "232 clause" mineral investigation by the Trump administration, which could lead to increased import tariffs [13]

在实现连续六周上涨后，黄金价格再涨逾1%，创下每盎司3812美元的历史新高，超越了上周二创下的峰值。支撑贵金属上涨的因素包括持续的市场供应紧 张，以及资金不断流入以这些金属为标的的ETF。 周一，贵金属价格全线飙升， 突破3810美元续创历史新高，年内累计上涨近45%。目前，交易员正密切关注美国政府可能出现的停摆危机——若危机爆 发，本周关键就业数据的发布或将延迟，进而可能令美联储的货币政策路径变得不明朗。 巴克莱银行策略师Themistoklis Fiotakis与Lefteris Farmakis在周日发布的报告中指出，考虑到美联储可能丧失独立性这一风险的性质，美元与美国国债"理应 包含一定程度的美联储相关溢价"，而相较之下，黄金价格并未显得高估。他们补充称："这使得黄金成为一种意外优质的对冲资产。" 今年以来，金价已飙升逾40%，在各大央行购金需求以及美联储重启降息的推动下，金价接连创下历史峰值。下周金价有望实现连续第三个季度上涨，目前 黄金ETF的持仓量已升至2022年以来的最高水平。高盛、德意志银行等机构均表示，预计金价涨势将持续。 与此同时，其他贵金属今年也出现了前所未有的供应紧张局面。由于连续数 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周一，贵金属价格全线飙升，黄金攀升至历史新高。目前，交易员正密切关注美国 政府可能出现的停摆危机——若危机爆发，本周关键就业数据的发布或将延迟，进而可能令美联储的货 币政策路径变得不明朗。 在实现连续六周上涨后，黄金价格再涨1%，创下每盎司3798.73美元的历史新高，超越了上周二创下的 峰值。白银价格涨幅一度达1.2%，在上周自14年来首次突破45美元后进一步攀升2011年以来的最高水 平，铂金与钯金也均大幅走高。支撑这些贵金属上涨的因素包括持续的市场供应紧张，以及资金不断流 入以这些金属为标的的ETF。 与此同时，其他贵金属今年也出现了前所未有的供应紧张局面。由于连续数年的供应短缺问题日益凸 显，伦敦市场可自由流通的贵金属库存不断减少，市场对此的担忧也进一步加剧。白银、铂金与钯金的 租赁利率(反映短期借入金属的成本)均大幅攀升，远超接近零的正常水平。 以Max Layton为首的花旗分析师团队表示，市场担忧特朗普政府可能将铂族金属纳入"232 条款"关键矿 产调查范围，这一新增担忧进一步加剧了市场供应紧张。花旗在9月19日发布的报告中指出，预计相关 审查结果将于10月晚些时候公布，在此 ...

恶语攻击美联储主席，特朗普气势凌人；下令解雇美联储理事，特朗普步步紧逼；直接安插亲信进 入美联储核心层，特朗普毫不避讳。这场关乎政治力量与经济规律、行政干预与市场工具、宪法权限与 制度边界的激烈较量与尖锐斗争，不仅是共和党与民主党利益对抗与相互否定的又一次公开表演，更可 能彻底动摇乃至摧毁美联储的独立性根基，同时改变现代货币政策体系的格局与走向，进而颠覆美国宏 观政策的固有规则与演进顺序。更重要的是，全球金融市场很可能在这场"腥风血雨"中剧烈震荡。 必须强调的是，美联储的独立性并非只来自纸面上的规定，而是在经过危机的残酷洗礼以及屡屡试 错的深刻反思后逐步确立与巩固起来的。"二战"时期，美国政府发行了巨额国债，财政部要求美联 储"钉住"国债收益率以降低利率，美联储被迫服从。结果战后出现了大通胀，这倒逼美联储与财政部展 开谈判，进而于1951年达成了"财政部-美联储协议"。这在美联储独立性历史上具有里程碑意义。根据 该协议，美联储摆脱了财政部的控制，且不再承担维持国债利率稳定的义务，美联储独立性的重要实践 基石由此奠定。 尼克松执政后期，美国失业率加速上行。在白宫的压力下，美联储推出了宽松的货币政策。结果， 不仅 ...