本文陈述所有内容皆有可靠信息来源，具体资料赘述在文中结尾 8月25日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上宣布解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克，理由是"房贷欺诈"。 这一举动也被美联社评论为"出人意料"，是特朗普试图控制美联储的最新举措。 播控就在此前一天的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔一改以往口风，表示"就业下行风险需政策调整"，也被市场解读为降息前奏。 那么，美国为何突然降息？若降息成功，人民币及其资产能否成为资金的避风港？ 很长一段时间里，美联储都因为能独立决定货币政策而出名，这也是美元信用的基础，但根据最近的情况看起来，这个基础貌似有些松动了。 除此之外，特朗普为了刺激经济，好几次公开给鲍威尔压力，甚至动用了安排人事的权力，他不仅说要换掉鲍威尔，还把自己人，也就是白宫经济顾问委员 会主席史蒂芬·米兰，安排进了美联储理事会。 毕竟库克是美联储首名黑人女性理事，任期原本至2038年，她曾表示，特朗普推进的贸易政策可能会抑制美国生产力，并可能迫使美联储在效率下降的经济 环境中提高利率以遏制通胀。 但特朗普却在社交媒体上发布了一张带有红色叉号的库克照片，并称其为"欺诈者"，就连库克也回应称不会"在霸凌之下辞职"。 ...

10:58 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 967.94 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持仓变化 更新时间:2025-08-2 970 965 960 955 950 945 940 2025-07-08 2025-07-28 2025-06-17 2025-08-14 最新经济数据显示，美国经济和就业市场仍然有韧性，美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比上调至3.3%，高于此前报告的3%。美国上周首申失业金人数小幅下 降至22.9万，续请人数降至195.4万，双双低于预期。 分析人士指出，由于美联储独立性担忧等持续发酵，黄金获得大量的正面买盘兴趣。投资者正等待今天公布的美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价数据，这 是美联储关注的核心通胀指标，并将焦点转向美国劳动力市场数据，尤其是下周的非农就业报告。 若就业数据强劲，9月降息的概率可能接近"五五开"，同时远期利率预期将出现更为鹰派的再定价，从而对黄金形成压力。相反，如果数据偏软，交易员可 能会进一步加码鸽派押注，甚至预计年内将有第三次降息，从而为黄金再添动力。 从技术面来看，日线图显示，黄金价格交投在其所有移动平均线之上，技术指标呈 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration has imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, doubling the existing tariff to 50%, marking the highest level of tariffs on Indian goods [1] - The primary objective of this tariff increase is to pressure India into ceasing its imports of Russian crude oil, which India considers vital for its energy security [3] - Despite the high tariffs, India continues to pursue its energy import strategy, indicating that the costs of compliance may be less than the risks faced by the U.S. [3] Group 2 - India, as the world's third-largest crude oil importer, heavily relies on oil imports from Russia and the Middle East, with Russia accounting for 35% of India's total crude oil imports by 2024 [5] - Following the tariff implementation, trade between the U.S. and India has nearly stalled, significantly impacting labor-intensive industries such as textiles and jewelry [5] - The ongoing tariff conflict has exacerbated U.S.-India relations, increasing uncertainty about future cooperation [5] Group 3 - The tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, particularly regarding Trump's potential dismissal of Fed officials [7] - Former Fed Vice Chair warned that Trump's actions could undermine the Fed's independence, leading to higher inflation and decreased market confidence [9] - Current expectations suggest a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Fed, influenced by the prevailing dovish sentiment among several board members [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The overall market is in a complex state with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical risks, economic data, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations are key drivers. Some commodities are expected to be in a state of high - level or low - level oscillation, while others are at a turning point in their supply - demand relationship [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices are in a relative steady state due to the game between post - peak season supply - demand and short - term geopolitical risks. Further upward space is limited without a clear escalation of geopolitical events [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures are under pressure, but the fundamentals are relatively bullish as the inventory pressure is relieved. High - sulfur resources are supported by geopolitical premiums [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market rebounds, and the domestic market is in a repair phase. There is long - term overseas production increase pressure, leading to a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the futures market [24]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures show resistance to decline, with potential demand and low inventory providing support [23]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are oscillating strongly. Once the key resistance is broken, the upward trend may be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the US PCE data [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The copper price rises, but the integer - level resistance is strong. High - level short positions can be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, with the upper resistance at 21,000 yuan. The casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the alumina is weakly oscillating [5][6][7]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. A short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price has a rebound intention, but the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking signs [10]. - **Tin**: The tin price continues to rise. The previous long positions can be held [11]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Both are oscillating upward with weak rebound strength. The manganese silicon may see inventory accumulation in the long run, and the silicon iron follows the trend of manganese silicon [19][20]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level as the supply - demand relationship weakens marginally [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both show price rebounds. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the prices are greatly affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations [17][18]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is回调, and the market is in a state of relatively strong oscillation [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are in an oscillating pattern, with limited upward space and high risk of shorting at the lower end of the range [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating, affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment of other varieties [14]. - **Urea**: The urea spot trading improves, but there is high supply - demand pressure [25]. - **Methanol**: The near - month methanol contract is weak, with high inventory in ports and increasing supply inland [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene market is in a weak balance, with expectations of improvement in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The PVC may oscillate weakly, and the caustic soda is expected to face pressure at high levels [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The PX is in a range - bound oscillation, and the PTA continues to weaken [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate within a range, and the upward drive is weakening [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber may be considered for long - position allocation if the demand improves, and the bottle - chip industry has long - term over - capacity pressure [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - to - long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: They can be considered for buying at low prices in the medium - to - long term, with attention to soybean policies in the short term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The futures prices have a narrow short - term fluctuation range, and it is advisable to wait and see [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom, with a possible short - term rebound [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pork**: The pork futures are likely to continue the weak downward trend in the medium term [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year, and it is advisable to consider long positions in the first half of next year's futures contracts [40]. - **Cotton and Sugar**: - **Cotton**: The international cotton market is oscillating, and the domestic cotton can be bought on dips [41]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with the international market having supply pressure and the domestic market having limited bullish factors [42]. - **Fruits and Wood Products**: - **Apple**: The apple price may continue to rise in the short term but lacks long - term supply - side support [43]. - **Wood**: The wood futures are oscillating, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures can be treated with a wait - and - see or range - bound oscillation strategy [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rebounds, and it is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures fall, and the yield curve may become steeper [47].

与此同时，特朗普的政治火力转向了金融巨头索罗斯。8月27日，他在社交媒体发文，直指索罗斯及其儿子"因支持暴力抗议等行为，应当依据RICO法受到 起诉"。RICO法原本用于打击黑帮和有组织犯罪，如今却被特朗普用来攻击一位在政治捐赠和慈善事业中影响巨大的投资人。值得注意的是，特朗普并未拿 出具体证据支持指控。 8月25日，当地时间，美国总统特朗普在其个人社交媒体平台上发表了一封措辞强硬的公开信，致信美联储理事丽莎·库克，宣布即刻解除她的职务。这一决 定震动了华盛顿政坛，也在国际金融界引发巨大反响。仅仅两天后的8月27日，特朗普又将矛头转向95岁高龄的金融大鳄乔治·索罗斯，公开指控其资助全国 范围内的"暴力抗议"，并呼吁依据反敲诈勒索法（RICO法）对索罗斯及其儿子提起诉讼。这种连续动作，被认为是特朗普在金融与政治双重领域发起的一 场前所未有的攻势。 在致库克的公开信中，特朗普写道："依据美国宪法第二条以及经修订的1913年《联邦储备法》赋予总统的权力，你被免去联邦储备委员会理事一职，立即 生效。"这是美国历史上罕见的一幕，因为美联储理事的独立性一直受到法律和制度保障。丽莎·库克不仅是美联储首位非洲裔女性理事，她的 ...

美联储理事库克在房产申报争议和特朗普解职诉讼中面临多项指控。 就在美联储理事库克诉美国总统特朗普的首场听证会召开前夕，前者再陷房产申报争议。 当地时间8月28日，美国联邦住房金融署署长普尔特（Bill Pulte）在社交媒体上发文称，库克在担任美 联储理事期间，在第三处房产贷款和政府申报中存在虚假陈述。 稍早前，库克已就特朗普将其解职一事向华盛顿特区联邦法院正式提起诉讼，并申请初步禁令，允许其 在案件审理期间继续履行美联储理事职责。 库克称，特朗普对其罢免的举动"非法"，且是对美联储独立性的极大攻击。 库克在诉状中称，特朗普此举的真正原因是"为了迅速罢免她，腾出一个（美联储理事）席位，并推进 他的议程，以破坏美联储的独立性。" 该案首场听证会将于当地时间29日上午10点举行。 第三起房产虚假申报？ 根据普尔特向美国司法部部长帕姆·邦迪递交的第二封刑事转介函，库克于2021年4月7日为其位于马萨 诸塞州剑桥市的公寓办理了一笔15年期抵押贷款，并将其申报为"第二居所"。 然而，仅8个月后，库克在向美国政府提交的一份道德规范表格中，却将该处房产列为"投资/出租房 产"，并申报了1.5万至5万美元的租金收入。在此后2 ...

最近一段时间，随着美国总统特朗普试图重塑美联储，市场专家纷纷警告称，美联储独立性受到威胁可 能会给金融市场带来严重的后果。 然而，对于特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克一事——这是美联储112年历史上首次遭遇此类事件， 美股市场却泰然处之，不仅没有大幅下跌，反而在过去几天多次创下新高。 当地时间8月25日，特朗普在社交平台上发表了一封致美联储理事库克的信件，宣布解除库克的职务， 即刻生效。特朗普表示，他解雇库克是因为后者涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。 不过，库克对此回应称，特朗普无权解雇她，她将继续履行职责。当地时间周四，库克正式对特朗普提 起诉讼，试图阻止后者的解职举动，这场法律战很有可能最终将上诉至最高法院。 特朗普几个月来一直指责美联储及其主席鲍威尔拒绝听从他降低利率的呼吁。分析认为，解雇库克标志 着特朗普与美联储之间的斗争升级，旨在对美联储施加更多的控制。 美联储的货币政策决策部门是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）。FOMC 由12名委员组成，包括7名联邦 储备系统理事、纽约联储主席，以及4名地方联储主席（由除纽约联储外的11个地区联储的主席按年度 轮换）。 一旦成功罢免库克，特朗普就有机会在美联储理事会安插更多" ...

今年3月，米兰曾以53票对46票的投票结果通过参议院确认，成为经济顾问委员会主席，当时没有共和 党人反对他的提名。 尽管民主党缺乏阻止提名的票数，但米兰预计将面临严厉质询，内容涉及特朗普罢免美联储理事莉萨· 库克（Lisa Cook）的行动、胁迫美联储降息的企图以及政府的其他经济政策。他还可能面临来自共和 党参议员的提问，例如路易斯安那州参议员约翰·肯尼迪（John Kennedy）。后者在美联储主席鲍威尔遭 受大量批评时曾为其辩护。 参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（John Thune）通常会遵循白宫的优先事项推进提名投票，包括财政部长斯 科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）在内的政府官员已表示希望米兰在9月FOMC会议前获得确认。特朗普在参 议院最多可失去3张共和党选票，即使是其最具争议的提名人选也大多能通过参议院。 由共和党主导的美国参议院很可能实现特朗普政府设定的激进目标——在美联储9月16日至17日利率决 议会议前快速通过斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）的美联储理事提名确认，除非出现程序故障或意外反 对。 米兰作为特朗普的核心经济顾问，长期主张激进降息并推动改革以扩大总统对美联储的影响力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the upward revision of US economic resilience, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuous fermentation of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the market. The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%. Gold has reached 3400 points, and copper and oil prices have closed higher. Domestically, the A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, and the bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to challenge previous highs. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating. Zinc prices are in a volatile consolidation. Lead prices are difficult to break out of the current shock pattern. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Nickel prices are driven by macro - expectations to fluctuate. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline in the long term. Steel prices are in a volatile trend. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Bean and rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range. Palm oil may decline and adjust [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][19][20][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%, with strong business investment and net exports contributing nearly 5%. The Fed's independence faces a legal test. The dollar index has fallen to 97.9, and gold has reached 3400 points. Attention is paid to the US July PCE data tonight [2] - Domestic: The A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3800 points. The bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released [3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Thursday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3476.9 per ounce. Concerns about the Fed's independence, inflation data, and interest - rate cut expectations support the rise of precious metals. They are expected to challenge previous highs, and attention is paid to the PCE data tonight [4][5] Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The downstream replenishment has slightly increased, but the aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7] Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the alumina price is under pressure and fluctuating [8] Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and the social inventory increased. The short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9][10] Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the consumption improvement is limited, and the export expectation is weakened. The lead price is difficult to break out of the current shock pattern [11] Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated. Overseas low inventory and slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar support the tin price. It is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention is paid to the pressure at previous highs [12] Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price weakened. The resource risk game continues, and the lithium price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - level dovish expectations continue, and the spot market has both positive and negative factors. The short - term fundamentals have no guidance, and the nickel price fluctuates under the influence of macro - expectations [15] Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil fluctuated. The market focuses on the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's sanctions. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a downward expectation in the long term [16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures rose and then fell. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan to continue the production reduction policy. The steel price is in a volatile trend [17][18] Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures rebounded. The supply is stable, and the demand has decreased. The post - parade replenishment expectation supports the price, and the iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean and rapeseed meal contracts fell. The new - crop export sales are 1.37 million tons. The US soybean production area has less precipitation, and the short - term bean meal may fluctuate within a range [20][21] Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell. The external oil market weakened, and the domestic oil is under pressure. The short - term palm oil may decline and adjust [22][23]

汇通财经APP讯——美元周五波动不大，但仍有望在8月对主要货币下跌约2%，原因是市场预期美联储 将在下月降息。美元指数最新报97.917，单月下跌近2%，年内累计跌幅接近10%。这一弱势表现与美国 国内政治干预央行独立性密切相关。 近期，美国总统特朗普加大了对美联储的影响力，包括试图解除美联储理事Lisa Cook的职务。Cook已 提出诉讼，称总统无权将其免职。市场担忧，美联储的政策独立性若受到侵蚀，可能导致长期利率失 真，从而削弱美元吸引力。 澳大利亚联邦银行货币策略师Carol Kong表示："如果市场认为FOMC的独立性遭到破坏，长期通胀预期 可能失去锚定，从而推动长期利率上升。" 若实际读数超过3%，将加大市场对美联储政策转向的质疑。下周五的非农就业数据则是9月会议前的另 一关键参考。 编辑观点: 整体来看，美元的疲软不仅仅反映了降息预期，更折射出市场对美联储独立性的担忧。若政治干预持续 强化，长期资金流入可能受到抑制，美元将难以在短期内恢复强势。 市场担心，若美联储持续维持过低的政策利率，可能刺激通胀走高，同时削弱外国投资者对美国国债的 需求。 K2资产管理公司研究主管George Boubour ...