证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20250512-20250518） 推荐（维持） 当前五大行 A 股股息率处于何种水平？ 银行 2025 年 05 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 2015-2025 年，大致可以划分为四个阶段：1）2Q15-1Q16，五大行季度平均股 息率震荡上行，平均股息率从 4.4%升至 5.3%；2）2Q16-1Q18，五大行季度平 均股息率震荡下行，从 5.3%降至 4.0%；3）2Q18-1Q23，五大行季度平均股息 率开启较长时间的震荡上行，从 4.4%升至 7.2%；4）2Q23-2Q25，五大行季度 平均股息率呈现较快下行趋势，从 6.3%降至 4.4%。当前水平处于 2015 年以 来的较低分位，与 2Q15 和 2Q18 水平相当。 与历史上当期的国债收益率相比，除了 1Q18 跑输 10 年期国债收益率之外， 其余时间五大行季度平均股息率均高于 10 年期国债收益率。其中 1Q20-2Q21， 高于 10 年期国债收益率 2pct；3Q21-2Q24，高于 10 年期国债收益率 3-4pct。 25 年以来仍然高于 10 年期国债收益率 2pct。 24 年所有 A ...

Core Insights - A-share listed companies demonstrated stable performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 71.70 trillion yuan and net profit at 5.20 trillion yuan, reflecting resilience against external challenges [1] - The overall improvement in A-share companies' performance indicates a continuous recovery of China's economic fundamentals, with GDP growth of 5.0% in 2024 and 5.4% in Q1 2025 [2] - Leading companies in various sectors, particularly in automotive, hardware, and semiconductor industries, reported significant revenue and profit growth, with many achieving over 100% growth [3][4] Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2024, 18 companies in the CSI 50 index saw revenue growth exceeding 10%, while 21 companies achieved similar net profit growth; in Q1 2025, these figures rose to 24 and 32 companies respectively [3] - The CSI 500 index showed even more robust performance, with 165 companies achieving over 10% revenue growth and 196 companies achieving similar net profit growth in 2024 [3] R&D Investment - Companies in the CSI 50 and CSI 500 indices maintained high R&D investment levels, with average expenditures of 76.94 billion yuan and 23.29 billion yuan respectively, significantly above the A-share average of 3.64 million yuan [3] - The focus on R&D is crucial for industry leaders to leverage new technologies and enhance profitability [3] Market Strategies - Leading companies are diversifying their markets to reduce dependency on single markets and are actively pursuing overseas opportunities, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [4] - The performance of these companies in international markets is strong, with significant sales in multiple countries and regions [4] Investment Opportunities - The CSI 50 and CSI 500 indices are highlighted as attractive long-term investment options due to the stability and strong fundamentals of leading companies [5] - Both indices are expected to see annual revenue growth exceeding 5% and net profit growth exceeding 10% from 2025 to 2026 [5] Dividend Yield - The CSI 50 and CSI 500 indices offer higher dividend yields of 2.95% and 3.23% respectively, compared to the broader market [6] - The focus on dividends enhances the investment experience for shareholders, with both indices implementing quarterly dividend assessments [6][7] Valuation Comparison - As of May 8, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratios for the CSI 50 and CSI 500 indices were 17.44 and 14.46, respectively, indicating a valuation advantage compared to major global indices [7] Market Outlook - The market outlook remains positive, with expectations of gradual recovery supported by favorable policies and the relative valuation advantage of Chinese equities [8]

天康生物一季度业绩大爆发的核心因素还是生猪养殖业务的回暖。根据公司2024年年报，其生猪养殖产 业链行业的毛利率从2023年的-13.82%大幅提升至2024年的14.61%；而今年一季度公司在这方面的盈利 能力或将进一步上升。根据公司披露的相关数据，一季度公司生猪养殖完全成本为13.01元/kg，其中1 月、3月的成本都降到了13元/kg以下。 5月9日晚间，天康生物（002100）发布4月份生猪销售简报，4月份销售生猪24.47万头，销量环比下降 3.93%，同比增长1.58%；销售收入3.80亿元，销售收入环比增长1.06%，同比持平。2025年4月份商品猪 (扣除仔猪、种猪后)销售均价14.32元/公斤，环比增长4.75%。2025年1—4月，公司累计销售生猪105.54 万头，较去年同期增长18.84%；累计销售收入15.57亿元，较去年同期增长11.61%。 公司发布的一季报已经显示出强烈的成长信号。数据显示，天康生物一季度净利达1.48亿元，同比增长 超174%；经营活动现金流净额高达1.24亿元，去年同期为-3.34亿元。值得注意的是，从回报率来看， 天康生物最新股息率达到3.46%，仅次于牧 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 84.492 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 8.12% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.496 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.28% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.015 billion yuan, up 8.68% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.181 billion yuan, which is a 30.56% increase year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.943 yuan per share for 2024, a 15% increase from the previous year, with a dividend payout ratio of 71% of net profit [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's total power generation reached approximately 295.904 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, driven by favorable water conditions [2] - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 was 285.52 yuan/MWh, an increase of 1.51% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for the power generation business improved to 62.5%, up 1.54 percentage points year-on-year, aided by a reduction in financial expenses by 11.38% to 11.131 billion yuan [2] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a 9.35% year-on-year increase in power generation to 57.679 billion kWh, supported by abundant water supply [3] - The revenue per kWh for Q1 2025 was estimated at 0.295 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.62% year-on-year [3] - Financial expenses for Q1 2025 were 2.481 billion yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year, contributing positively to performance growth [3] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims to achieve an annual power generation of 300 billion kWh, contingent on favorable water conditions [4] - The projected dividend yield for 2025 is estimated at 3.31%, with a significant spread over the ten-year government bond yield, indicating strong investment value [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 34.1 billion, 35.8 billion, and 36.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 21.12x, 20.15x, and 19.57x [4]

面对上市银行大手笔的"红包雨"以及高股息，股民们是否可靠银行股"躺赚"？ 深圳商报·读创客户端首席记者 谢惠茜 与此同时，也有9家银行股息率低于4%，3家银行股息率低于2%。其中，浦发银行股息率为2.76%；宁 波银行股息率为2.40%，西安银行（600928）股息率仅为1.55%。 对此，苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟在接受记者采访时表示，高股息率表明更好的分红水平以及更低的估 值水平，投资者可以以股息率对银行股标的进行初步筛选。 不过，需要注意的是，如果投资银行股是以长期持有为目的，就要注意规避低估值陷阱，有的企业经营 状况一般，因此市场给予其较低的估值水平，企业的股息率水平就较高。但是，投资者既然准备长期持 有，就一定希望企业运营良好，从而产生源源不断的现金流来回馈股东。所以，投资者在关注股息率的 同时，要注意分辨企业的高股息率究竟来源于何方。毕竟投资要取得良好的业绩，并不是买的越便宜越 好，而是要以合适的价格买入优秀的企业。 他指出，整体而言，对于普通投资者来说，"买入并持有"银行股，是比较好的策略。拉长时间来看，银 行股长期上涨，如果算上分红，则收益水平更加丰厚。对于普通投资者来说，最重要的是要能抵住诱 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 银行 2025 年 05 月 06 日 建设银行 (00939) —— ROE 稳居大行第一，夯实资本为做大做强更进一步 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 05 月 02 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 6.38 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8231.04 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 7.02/5.14 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 15,950.70 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 240,417.32 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0774 | 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -9% 41% 91% HSCEI 建设银行 李禹昊 A0230123070008 liyh2@sws ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 April 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Wuliangye - A 2024 sales up 7.1% yoy at expense of relaxing credit & rising rebates to distributors; 2025 sales target of c5% (in line with GDP growth) ...

年报中的红利改善方向——多行业联合红利资产 4 月报 20250505 摘要 • 红利及低波动性板块展现防御属性，4 月表现优于主要指数，如 2000 指 数和全 A 指数。石化、家电、食品饮料和交运等一级行业符合股息率改善 且业绩稳健标准，其中石化行业股息率提升幅度最大，但一季度业绩略有 负增长。 • 二级行业中，航运港口、白电、白酒和纺织制造符合股息率改善且绝对水 平在 3%以上，同时一季度业绩稳健增长的标准。三级行业细分领域包括 航运、空调、肉制品、白酒、快递服务、人力资源服务等。 • 公用事业领域中，高速公路和港口分红比例提升，显示长期配置价值。四 川成渝高速公路 A 股股息率达 5.1%，H 股超过 7%。2024 年港口板块业 绩增长最快，预计 2025 年高速公路将呈现回升趋势。 • 重点推荐红利资产包括四川成渝、广通高速、山东高速、宁沪高速和招商 公路，这些公司具备稳定的业绩表现和较高的分红能力。招商港口因海外 资产布局和提高分红比例成为长久期经营资产中的优选。 Q&A 2025 年 4 月份华创红利资产研究中心对红利市场的看法是什么？ 2025 年 4 月份，华创红利资产研究中心对红利市场持 ...

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, China Merchants Bank reported a decline in both operating income and net profit, indicating a slowdown in performance compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the bank achieved operating income of 83.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.09%, with the decline rate widening by 2.61 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 37.286 billion yuan, down 2.08% year-on-year, with a decline of 3.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][2]. - The average return on total assets and average return on equity were 1.21% and 14.13%, respectively, both showing year-on-year declines of 0.14 percentage points and 1.95 percentage points [2]. Revenue Structure - Net interest income for Q1 2025 was 52.996 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.92%, continuing the growth trend from Q4 2024 [2]. - Net fee and commission income was 19.696 billion yuan, down 2.51% year-on-year, with wealth management fees increasing by 10.45% [2]. - The revenue from agency wealth management surged by 39.47% due to growth in agency scale and product structure optimization, while agency insurance income continued to decline due to falling insurance sales [2]. - Other net income was 11.059 billion yuan, down 22.19% year-on-year, primarily impacted by rising market interest rates leading to a decrease in the fair value of bond and fund investments [2]. Cost Management - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.91%, down 11 basis points year-on-year and 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter, with the decline rate narrowing [3]. - The deposit cost rate decreased by 34 basis points year-on-year to 1.29%, positively affecting the net interest margin due to lower deposit rates and regulatory restrictions on high-interest deposit solicitation [3]. Asset Quality - As of the end of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio was 0.94%, a slight improvement of 0.01 percentage points from the end of the previous year [3]. - The non-performing loan ratio for corporate loans improved to 0.95%, while the retail loan non-performing ratio increased to 1.01%, indicating ongoing pressure on retail loan asset quality [3]. - The provision coverage ratio was 410.03%, down 1.95 percentage points from the end of the previous year [3]. Investment Outlook - The bank maintains a "buy" rating, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 30% and a projected cash dividend of 2 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.91% based on the closing price on April 30 [4]. - The estimated net asset value per share for 2025 is 45.25 yuan, with the current stock price corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.90 times [4].

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，A股非金融ROE环比基本持平，结合一季度盈利增长明显反弹和 上述积极变化，预计本轮盈利下行周期的增速低点已过，但二季度以后需要重视关税政策对企业基本面 的影响。中金判断，关税对上市公司销售的冲击程度好于实体经济，但需要关注降价和供需失衡导致的 利润率下降。配置上，建议从景气回升和关税低影响两个维度寻找机会。 中金主要观点如下： 盈利增长方面，2024年全A/金融/非金融归母净利润同比分别为-3.0%/+9.0%/-14.2%，四季度大量减值损 失导致非金融盈利加速探底，全年房地产和光伏行业是主要拖累项；1Q25全A/金融/非金融归母净利润 同比为+3.5%/+2.9%+4.2%，下游行业改善明显。行业层面，有色金属、部分出口链以及TMT板块亮点 突出，高景气行业稀缺的格局发生积极变化。 盈利能力来看，A股非金融ROE环比基本持平，从2021年2季度以来，本轮ROE下行周期已持续15个季 度，拆分来看，净利润率边际企稳反弹，但资产周转率仍明显下行拖累。结构上，上游行业ROE仍在快 速下滑，下游行业若剔除地产后处于改善趋势中。其中ROE连续两个季度改善的行业包括电子、家电、 非 ...