Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure in April, with a notable improvement in tax revenue contributing to a more positive outlook for fiscal policy and spending [1][3][4]. Fiscal Revenue - In April, the general public budget revenue growth rate increased to 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue showing a significant improvement of 4.1 percentage points, marking the first positive growth this year [1][4]. - Cumulatively, tax revenue for the first four months remains at -2.1% year-on-year, with corporate income tax down by 3.1%, primarily due to low PPI [1][4][5]. - The performance of major tax categories in April was neutral, with corporate income tax contributing 1.21 percentage points to revenue growth, while personal income tax rose by 67.5% year-on-year, largely due to base effects [5][8]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure showed a more positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in April and a cumulative growth of 4.6% for the first four months, exceeding the annual target growth rate of 4.4% [1][8]. - The expenditure progress for the first four months reached 31.5%, the second highest level in recent years, driven by spending on social security, education, and infrastructure projects [1][8][9]. - The issuance of ordinary government bonds was significantly advanced, contributing to the increase in fiscal spending [8][9]. Broader Fiscal Context - The government fund revenue also turned positive in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, driven by land sales and expected recovery in government fund income [2][15]. - The government fund expenditure rose sharply by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating strong fiscal support for infrastructure and development projects [18][19]. - The overall fiscal revenue growth remains low, necessitating further measures to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, with a notable fiscal deficit of 2.65 trillion yuan in the first four months [3][19].

Group 1 - The overall fiscal situation shows signs of recovery, with broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates rebounding to -1.3% and 7.2% respectively for January-April, and April figures improving to 2.7% and 12.9% [1][3] - Tax revenue recovery and a slight rebound in the land market have contributed to the improvement in revenue, while special bond issuance and the initiation of special treasury bonds have supported expenditure growth [1][3] - The fiscal space for further stimulus remains, as economic growth shows resilience despite external shocks, although uncertainties in exports may pose challenges to fiscal balance [1] Group 2 - National general public budget revenue for January-April reached 8.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -0.4%, below the target growth of 0.1%, while April's revenue growth rose to 1.9% [3] - Central revenue turned positive with a growth rate of 1.6%, while local revenue decreased to 2.1%; tax revenue growth improved to 1.9% [3] - National fiscal expenditure for January-April was 9.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, exceeding the target growth of 4.4% [4] Group 3 - In April, the growth rates of value-added tax and consumption tax revenues declined, while corporate income tax growth significantly fell, and personal income tax saw a large increase of 67.5 percentage points [6] - Real estate-related tax revenues weakened, with both property tax and deed tax growth rates declining, although land value-added tax growth saw a slight narrowing of decline [6] Group 4 - In April, major expenditure categories showed mixed results, with transportation and technology spending growth exceeding 10 percentage points, while infrastructure spending's proportion continued to decline [8] - Government fund income growth narrowed to -6.7% for January-April, with April's growth turning positive at 8.1%, and land use rights transfer income growth rebounding to 4.3% [9] - Government fund expenditure growth increased to 17.7% for January-April, but remained below the target of 23.1%, with April's growth rising to 44.7% [9]

从财政收入看，1—4月全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%，降幅比一季度收窄0.7个百分点。分 中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入下降3.8%，降幅比一季度收窄1.9个百分点，其中4月份增长1.6%，今年 以来首月实现正增长；地方一般公共预算收入增长2.2%，增幅与一季度持平。 从收入来源看，1—4月全国税收收入65556亿元，同比下降2.1%，降幅比一季度收窄1.4个百分点，其中4月税 收收入同比增长1.9%，今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正；全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多 渠道盘活资产等带动。 广发证券宏观分析师吴棋滢指出，2025年一般公共预算收入目标同比增速仅有0.1%，全年实现收入目标难度 不大。但在结构上，目前财政收入增幅仍依赖于非税收入带动。 财政部5月20日公布的2025年1—4月财政收支数据显示，在国际环境更趋复杂严峻，外部冲击影响加大的背 景下，1—4月全国公共财政收入累计降幅继续收窄，公共财政支出进度达到2020年以来同期最快；4月全国 税收收入同比增长1.9%，为今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正。 校对： 刘榕枝 百万用户都在看 在主要税收收入项目中，1 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first four months of this year, the national general public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and completing 31.5% of the budget, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] Expenditure Analysis - The increase in expenditure is attributed to the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy by various levels of financial departments, which has intensified spending and optimized expenditure structure [1] - There is a notable focus on improving people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and enhancing future economic momentum, with key areas of expenditure being well-supported [1]

Revenue Performance - In March 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, an improvement from a decline of 1.6% in January-February[1] - Cumulative general public budget revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, lower than the full-year growth rate of the previous year[2] - Cumulative government fund revenue for Q1 2025 fell by 11.0% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 10.7% in January-February[1] Expenditure Trends - Cumulative general public budget expenditure for Q1 2025 grew by 4.2% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous year[6] - In March 2025, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.7% year-on-year, up 2.3 percentage points from January-February[8] - Cumulative government fund expenditure for Q1 2025 rose by 11.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 1.2% growth in January-February[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In Q1 2025, tax revenue decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 8.8%[3] - In March 2025, corporate income tax revenue surged by 16.0% year-on-year, a significant increase of 26.4 percentage points compared to January-February[4] - Personal income tax revenue in March 2025 plummeted by 58.5% year-on-year, contrasting with a 26.7% increase in January-February, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival[4] Land Market and Special Bonds - Cumulative land use rights transfer revenue in Q1 2025 fell by 15.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[9] - The issuance of special bonds in Q1 2025 was significantly high, contributing to a substantial increase in government fund expenditure[9] - Future issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds in April 2025 is expected to enhance investment and consumption stability[9]

非税持续回落（ 5.9% ， 1-2 月 11% ） ，据财政部介绍， （一季度非税增幅）主要是部分上市中央金融企业分红入库、地方多渠道盘活资产等带动。 此外， 企 业所得税与非税去年以来首现"脱钩"，或显示地方财政压力阶段性缓释 （详见 《 2024 年财政数据的四个反常和启示》 ） ， 积极信号可继续观察。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 事项 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，1-2月同比-2.9%；3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，1-2月同比2.9%。 报告摘要 一、 收入端：单月增速转正，装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现 3 月，财政收入同比 0.3% （ 1-2 月 -1.6% ），一季度预算收入进度 27.4% ，低于过去三年同期平均水平 。分税收和非税收入看： 税收降幅收窄（ -2.2% ， 1-2 月 -3.9% ），装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现。 一季度， 制造业方面 ，装备制造业保持较高增幅，其中，铁路船舶航空 航天设备制造业、计算机通信设备制造业税收收入分别增长 32.4 ...

Revenue Summary - In the first quarter, the national general public budget revenue was 60,189 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to January-February. March saw a monthly increase turning positive [1] - Tax revenue for the first quarter was 47,450 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 12,739 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1][3] - March's general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February, primarily driven by a narrowing decline in tax revenue [1][3] Expenditure Summary - In the first quarter, national general public budget expenditure reached 72,815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with March's growth accelerating to 5.7% [2] - The expenditure progress for the first quarter was 24.5%, higher than the average of 23.7% over the past five years, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal measures [2] - Major expenditure areas included social security and employment at 13,570 billion yuan (up 7.9%), education at 11,249 billion yuan (up 7.8%), and health at 5,848 billion yuan (up 2.2%) [5] Tax Revenue Performance - In March, major tax revenues showed improvement, with VAT increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, and corporate income tax rising by 16.0%, indicating potential marginal improvement in corporate profitability [4] - Non-tax revenue growth was driven by dividends from central financial enterprises and local asset management, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [4] - The significant decline of 58.5% in personal income tax was attributed to the timing of year-end bonuses and a high base from the previous year [4] Government Fund Overview - In the first quarter, government fund budget revenue was 9,247 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, while expenditure was 19,769 billion yuan, up 11.1% [6] - Revenue from state-owned land use rights fell by 15.9% to 6,849 billion yuan, with related expenditures also declining by 11% [6]

Revenue Performance - In January-February 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the annual revenue budget target by 0.1%[4] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 83 percentage points from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid expenditure pace[4] - Social welfare and employment expenditures rose by 5.4% year-on-year, driven by increased spending in social security and health sectors[4] - Infrastructure spending decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in urban community and agricultural water affairs expenditures[4] Fund and Policy Outlook - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in land transfer income[4] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with central government fund expenditure surging by 74.2%, significantly outpacing local government growth of 0.6%[4] - The fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing the deficit ratio, enhancing expenditure intensity, and accelerating spending progress throughout the year[4]

Revenue Performance - In January-February 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the annual revenue budget target by 0.1%[5] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[5] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, but this was a significant drop of 83 percentage points from the previous month[5] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid expenditure pace[5] - Social welfare and employment expenditures rose by 5.4%, reflecting a focus on social security and health spending[5] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with central government fund expenditure soaring by 74.2%, contrasting with a mere 0.6% increase at the local level[5] Future Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing the deficit ratio and expenditure intensity, with plans for special bond issuance to accelerate spending[5] - There is an emphasis on supporting domestic demand and consumption, particularly in social security and employment sectors[5] - The central government has reserved sufficient tools and policy space to potentially introduce incremental policies throughout the year based on changing internal and external conditions[5]