Market Overview - A-shares opened higher on the first trading day after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.73%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.75% [2][3] - The gold futures main contract surged over 5%, reaching a new historical high of 917.42 yuan per gram [7][8] Sector Performance - The precious metals sector showed strong performance, with gold-related stocks significantly rising, including Sichuan Gold, which hit the daily limit, and other companies like Xiaocheng Technology and Chifeng Gold also experiencing substantial gains [6][7] - Other active sectors included nuclear fusion, basic metals, and gas, while sectors such as catering and tourism, real estate, and cultural media faced declines [4][5] Specific Company News - Hainan Huatie's stock hit the daily limit down after announcing the termination of a 36.9 billion yuan contract for computing power services, citing significant changes in market conditions since the contract was signed [9][10][11] - The company has not received any purchase orders since the signing of the agreement and has issued a termination notice to the contracting party [10]

- The report discusses the overall performance of the four major stock index futures, with the CSI 500 futures showing the largest increase of 3.83% and the SSE 50 futures showing the smallest increase of 1.00%[3] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts decreased compared to the previous week, with the IH futures showing the largest decrease of -24.59% and the IC futures showing the smallest decrease of -5.41%[3] - The basis levels for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts are provided, with the IF and IM discounts deepening, the IC discount narrowing, and the IH discount turning into a premium[3] - The cross-period spread rates for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts are given, with the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts' cross-period spread rates being at the 45.80%, 49.70%, 60.20%, and 40.00% percentiles since 2019, respectively[3] - The report mentions that there are no opportunities for positive or negative arbitrage in the IF main contract based on the closing prices[4] - The dividend forecast indicates that the dividends for the main contracts of the four major index futures have minimal impact on the September main contracts' points[4] - The market sentiment has improved, with the IH basis turning from a discount to a premium and the total open interest of the four major index futures increasing, with the IC showing the most significant increase[4][13] - The report includes a detailed explanation of the calculation methods for index futures arbitrage, including the formulas for positive and negative arbitrage returns[46] - The dividend estimation method is explained, which involves predicting the dividend points based on historical dividend patterns and the current EPS and payout ratio[47][48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a strong upward trend in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, driven by expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] - On the morning of the 29th, London gold spot prices surged over 1%, reaching a high of $3807.85 per ounce, marking the sixth consecutive week of increases [1] - London silver also performed well, with prices rising over 2% to $47.174 per ounce, achieving a historical high [1] Group 2 - The increase in gold prices is attributed to the anticipated resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by a decline in the U.S. labor market [1] - As a result of these monetary policy changes, global gold ETFs are expected to accelerate their accumulation of gold, further driving up prices [1]

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3769.85, with a change of 39.10 [1] - London Silver latest price is 45.00, with a change of 0.06 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1505.00, with a change of 25.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1234.00, with a change of 8.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 65.72, with a change of 0.74 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 10271.50, with a change of -51.50 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver: no latest inventory data and change provided [2] - SHFE Silver latest inventory is 1158.27, with a change of 1.41 [2] - Gold ETF latest holding is 1005.72, with a change of 8.87 [2] - Silver ETF latest holding is 15361.84, with a change of -28.23 [2] - SGE Silver: no latest inventory data provided, and its deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] Other Market Data - US Dollar Index latest is 98.19, with a change of -0.27 [11] - EUR/USD latest is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [11] - GBP/USD latest is 1.34, with a change of 0.01 [11] - USD/JPY latest is 149.50, with a change of -0.30 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.82, with a change of 0.02 [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆★, similar to gold, a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tonight's PCE inflation data and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] Summary by Related Content US Economic Data - The US second - quarter GDP was significantly revised up to a 3.8% increase, the highest in two years, with the previous value at 3.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20th was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000 [1] Fed Officials' Speeches - Fed Governor Bowman believes that the focus should now shift to employment rather than inflation. This year's voting member, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, thinks the more the balance sheet shrinks, the better. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is a bit worried about excessive early rate cuts based on the slowdown in employment data and is still confirming whether inflation has peaked. San Francisco Fed President Daly also believes that it is too risky to completely shift to a neutral stance [2]

Market Overview - On September 25, A-shares opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight decline of 0.01%, closing at 3853.3 points. In contrast, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw gains of 0.67% and 1.58%, closing at 13445.9 points and 3235.76 points respectively [1] Sector Performance - The AI sector continued to show strength, with active trading in holographic technology, gaming, and superconducting concepts. The energy storage sector also experienced fluctuations, with companies like Sungrow Power Supply and CATL reaching new historical highs [1] - Conversely, sectors such as precious metals, shipping ports, and antibacterial fabrics faced significant declines [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1477 A-shares closed in the green, with 52 stocks hitting the daily limit up. Meanwhile, 3877 stocks closed in the red, with 9 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached approximately 10012.11 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange recorded about 13698.85 billion yuan, leading to a combined trading volume of around 2.37 trillion yuan [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor market operability [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor market operability [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to strengthen. Powell pointed out that the policy rate is still slightly restrictive and emphasized flexible policy adjustment based on data and economic outlook. Geopolitical tensions are hard to resolve, and Trump said the US is ready to impose tariffs if Russia refuses to reach an agreement. The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term volatility may intensify [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Information Fed Officials' Statements - Powell: Policy rate is slightly restrictive, allowing better response to potential economic progress; tariff impact is a one - time transmission; decisions are "never based on political factors". His remarks may open the door for further rate cuts [2] - Goolsbee: Currently not considering a 50 - basis - point rate cut; the Fed's interest rate may eventually stabilize around 3% [2] - Bowman: Predicts three rate cuts in 2025 [2] - Bostic: Considers the current real neutral rate to be 1.25%; may support setting the inflation target range at 1.75% - 2.25% in the future [2] Trump's Statements - If Russia refuses to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs; Ukraine can retake all lost territory with EU support; NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes entering NATO airspace; his relationship with Putin "unfortunately means nothing" [2] - Trump cancelled a meeting with two top - level Democrats in Congress on Tuesday to resolve issues hindering a funding agreement to avoid a federal government shutdown [2] OECD Forecast - Predicts global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025 (previously 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from previous forecast) [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.18% at 3821 points, briefly dipping below 3800 points during the day [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21%. The North Star 50 Index saw a significant drop of 2.63% [1] - Total trading volume reached 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 376 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4200 stocks declining across the market [1] Sector Performance - The tourism and hotel sector faced heavy losses, with stocks like Tibet Tourism, Yunnan Tourism, and Huatian Hotel hitting the daily limit down [1] - The real estate sector also declined, with stocks such as Electronic City experiencing limit down [1] - The CRO sector weakened, led by Sunshine Nuohua and Medici, while the small metals sector saw widespread declines, with Yunnan Zhiye and Guiyan Platinum dropping over 5% [1] - Other sectors that performed poorly included recombinant proteins, 3D glass, digital currency, and software development [1] Gainers - The port and shipping sector saw gains, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Shipping both hitting the daily limit up [1] - Bank stocks were active, with Nanjing Bank leading the gains [1] - The superconducting concept stocks rose, with Woer Nuclear Materials hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other sectors that showed positive performance included wheel motors, SMIC concept stocks, and precious metals [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3821.83, down 6.74 points (-0.18%) [1] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13119.82, down 38.16 points (-0.29%) [1] - ChiNext Index: 3114.55, up 6.67 points (+0.21%) [1] - North Star 50 Index: 1547.4, down 41.74 points (-2.63%) [1] - Other indices such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500 also showed declines [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced narrow fluctuations with a slight increase on September 22, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.58 points, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97 points, up 0.67%. The STAR 50 index rose by 3.38%, and the ChiNext index increased by 0.55%. The total trading volume of the A-shares was 21,425 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous day [1][10][11] - Among the 30 first-level industries of CITIC, 11 sectors saw an increase, with electronics, computers, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains. Conversely, consumer services, food and beverage, and construction sectors experienced significant declines [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indices continued to set closing records, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.14%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.44%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.7%. Apple shares rose over 4%, and Nvidia increased nearly 4%, leading the Dow [2] Key Economic Data - As of June 2025, China's banking sector total assets reached nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally. The stock and bond market sizes are second in the world, and foreign exchange reserves have maintained the top position for 20 consecutive years [11][13] - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remained unchanged in September 2025, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% [20] Industry Developments - The National Energy Administration and other departments issued guidelines to promote high-quality development of energy equipment, aiming for significant advancements in the energy key equipment industry chain by 2030, focusing on autonomy, high-end, intelligent, and green development [18] - The financial sector has seen a reduction in financing platform debt risks, with the number of financing platforms decreasing by 60% compared to March 2023, and financial debt scale dropping by over 50% [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures prices have reached a historic high of over $3760 per ounce, driven by ongoing commodity inflation trends in the U.S. and a weakening labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. commodity inflation continues to rise, while service sector inflation shows signs of easing [1] - The labor market is experiencing a downward trend, which may influence future monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market, as indicated during the August global central bank meeting, suggests that moderate commodity inflation will not alter the pace of interest rate cuts [1] - The combination of rising tariffs contributing to inflation and declining nominal interest rates is expected to benefit precious metals in the near future [1] Group 3: Demand Factors - The recent surge in international gold prices coincides with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which is likely to sustain demand for gold jewelry [1]