伦敦的白银总库存里，很多都被ETF长期锁住了，真正能流通的白银还不到4000吨，比2024年底少了一 半还多。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放 鹰派信号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险事件频发，更多央行增持黄金， 投资者重塑资产定价体系对金融属性强的商品货币的配置比例仍将上升，中长期有望驱动贵金属有望重 现类似 1970 年代的牛市行情。但从前几轮金价上涨经验看，价格在创新高后可能面临2-3 个月的盘整 或要到 12 月酝酿新的上涨动能。由于市场流动性受到美国政府结束"关门"的时点和美联储官员表态扰 动美元偏强加剧价格回调压力但目前看下方买盘力量仍存，短期国际金呈现宽幅波动若跌破3900 美元 （900元）可以择机逢低买入，后期仍以震荡整理走势为主。 国内这边，上海期货交易所的白银库存跌到了近十年的最低点，上海黄金交易所的白银库存更是跌破 3000吨，创下了新低。印度市场更夸张，不少精炼厂的库存都卖光了，商家手里都没货可卖。 所以，今年一整年，白银现货紧缺的问题就一直没平息，供需对不上，进而引发了一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the formation of MACD golden cross signals, indicating potential upward trends in certain stocks [1][2]. Group 1 - The MACD golden cross signal is a technical indicator that suggests a bullish trend in the stock market [1][2]. - Several stocks are identified as having shown positive momentum following the formation of the MACD golden cross signals [1][2].

消息面上，上周五，COMEX白银期货一举突破57美元/盎司关口，最高触及57.245美元/盎司，创下历史 新高；伦敦现货白银价格同样表现强势，最高攀升至56.533美元/盎司，亦创下历史最高纪录。分析认 为，宏观货币政策预期、地缘局势以及基本面供需结构等，均为近期白银价格上涨提供支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，中国白银集团(00815)高开逾14%，截至发稿，涨14.08%，报0.81港元，成交额 296.46万港元。 中银证券认为，贵金属长期牛市逻辑依然稳固。白银补涨弹性优于黄金。黄金仍处上升通道，但当前处 于加速上行后的高位震荡阶段，后续行情的催化关键在于"实际利率下行"与"美元走弱"能否形成共振。 相比之下，白银的短期确定性更强：当前处于历史高位的"金银比"蕴含着较大的修复空间，而光伏等工 业领域需求增长为银价提供了支撑，较低的库存水平使其价格短期弹性或优于黄金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has seen a significant surge recently, with silver particularly standing out, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve easing, declining real interest rates, and a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the silver market [2][3]. Price Movements - On November 28, spot silver surged over 6%, breaking the $56 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high of $56.78 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 90% [2][3]. - The Shanghai silver night market also performed strongly, rising over 5% to exceed 13,000 yuan, while spot gold returned to $4,200 per ounce [2][3]. Macroeconomic Factors - The core catalyst for the recent rise in silver prices is the repricing of interest rates and policy expectations, with the Federal Reserve initiating a new easing cycle since September, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00% [3][4]. - Market expectations for a potential rate cut in December have increased to 85%, influenced by recent statements from key Federal Reserve officials and weak economic data [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market has faced a structural supply-demand gap for five consecutive years, with the Silver Institute predicting a supply of approximately 813 million ounces in 2025, remaining roughly flat year-on-year [5]. - Global demand is expected to decline by about 4% to 1.12 billion ounces, with industrial demand decreasing by approximately 2% [5]. Future Outlook - Despite a decline in demand, the supply gap is projected to persist, with an expected structural supply deficit of about 95 million ounces in 2025 [5]. - Institutions forecast a continued structural bull market for silver, with UBS raising its price forecast by $5-$8 per ounce, anticipating silver to trade at $60 per ounce by 2026 [7]. - The demand for silver in sectors like photovoltaics, data centers, and electric vehicles is expected to expand, despite a decrease in per-unit silver consumption [7].

【黄金期货行情表现】 11月25日，沪金主力暂报946.50元/克，涨幅达1.48%，今日沪金主力开盘价935.60元/克，截至目前最高 949.78元/克，最低933.38元/克。 SPDR黄金信托基金报告称，截至11月24日，其持仓量增加0.03%，即0.29吨，至1040.86吨。 【宏观消息】 【机构观点】 美联储官员近期释放的货币政策信号对贵金属市场产生重要影响。旧金山联储主席戴利表示支持12月降 息，认为就业市场突然恶化的风险比通胀上升更大，这一鸽派表态增强了市场对美联储即将放松货币政 策的预期。与此同时，美联储理事沃勒指出关税对通胀的影响有限，只是一次性的，这缓解了市场对通 胀压力的担忧。这些言论共同推动了市场对美联储政策转向的预期，为黄金等避险资产提供了支撑。 逻辑：美联储内部支持降息的声音增加，美国经济数据发布推迟，地缘政治风险及央行增持黄金也对金 价形成支撑。数据：国际金价收 4134.63 美元 / 盎司，涨幅 1.72%，金价维持在 4000-4150 美元区间震 荡。观点：中长期贵金属牛市行情延续，若突破阻力金价或涨至 4200 美元上方。 泰国央行计划收紧黄金交易的报告规定，此前黄 ...

白银正在成为今年贵金属市场中最耀眼的资产。作为长期被称为"穷人黄金"的金属，白银不仅价格低 廉，更因其同时具备货币属性与工业需求，被分析师视为极具性价比的投资标的。数据显示，白银年内 价格大涨74%，涨幅在主要贵金属中位居榜首，显著超过黄金、铂金与钯金。 在宏观层面，持续偏高的通胀及市场对法定货币长期价值的疑虑，正驱动更多投资者配置硬资产。在工 业金属与货币金属"双重身份"的支撑下，白银在制造业复苏与避险需求同步上升时，展现出比黄金更强 的价格弹性。Rhind指出，只要这些驱动因素继续存在，白银有望继续领跑贵金属市场，即便中途可能 伴随双位数幅度的高波动。 除了价格优势，白银的工业需求正快速爆发。作为已知最好的可见光反射体、最强电导体之一，以及具 备天然杀菌特性的金属，白银在太阳能、新能源、电子元件、AI硬件及智能手机产业中的需求持续增 长。美国内政部近期更将白银列入国家关键矿物清单，进一步凸显其战略重要性。 与黄金相比，白银距离其经通胀调整后的历史高点仍有巨大上升空间。根据道琼斯市场数据，白银1980 年的实际高点折合今日价格超过209美元/盎司，而目前主力12月期银仅约50.7美元，距离历史高点仍有 76 ...

Report Summary Core View - The long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices is due to the continuous and historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, which is manifested in the decline of its internal and external purchasing power and the weakening of its global mandatory power [3][6][7] Key Points Market Performance - As of November 12, 2025, the spot and futures prices of silver reached new historical highs, with the domestic price standing at 12,500 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver approaching $54 per ounce. Silver outperformed gold, and there are new underlying logics emerging [2] Traditional Gold Analysis Framework Breakdown - Before 2024, gold price discussions mainly revolved around the US dollar and US Treasury yields. However, since 2022, the Fed's interest - rate hikes and rising US inflation have led to a situation where gold prices and US Treasury yields have risen simultaneously, breaking the traditional inverse relationship [2][3] US Dollar's Intrinsic Value Analysis - **Purchasing Power**: The US dollar's internal and external purchasing power has been in an irreversible decline. Domestically, inflation has eroded its internal purchasing power, and externally, the process of de - globalization since 2016 has weakened its external purchasing power, including factors such as resource protectionism in South America and the decline of US influence on energy prices [4][6] - **Compulsory Power**: The US dollar's global compulsory power has been declining since 2018, which is an important background for the loss of its intrinsic value [7] US Dollar Index and Gold - Silver Price Relationship - The US dollar index is a relative indicator and does not reflect the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value. Gold and silver can mark the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, and the long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices has an inherent logical sustainability [6][7]

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent surge in silver prices, with domestic prices reaching 12,500 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver nearing 54 dollars per ounce, indicating a historical high [3] - It suggests that silver is outperforming gold and may be evolving into a "people's monetary metal" in Europe and the US, driven by government actions related to gold [3] - The long-term upward trend in precious metals is attributed to stable driving factors, with a focus on the valuation currency perspective [3][6] Group 2 - Traditional frameworks for analyzing precious metals face challenges, particularly in the context of rising real interest rates since 2022, which have led to price adjustments in gold [6] - The article discusses the impact of liquidity changes on the relationship between gold and US Treasury yields, noting that increased liquidity can lead to simultaneous rises in both gold prices and Treasury yields [6][9] - It emphasizes the historical decline in the intrinsic value of the US dollar, which is reflected in the rising prices of gold and silver [9][11] Group 3 - The article examines the internal and external purchasing power of the US dollar, indicating a long-term decline in both aspects, which contributes to the ongoing loss of the dollar's intrinsic value [10][11] - It points out that the dollar's purchasing power has been affected by various global economic factors, including resource nationalism in South America and geopolitical conflicts [10][11] - The discussion includes the notion that the dollar's status as a global currency is under pressure, leading to a potential shift towards gold and silver as alternative stores of value [12][13]

Macro News - The U.S. Senate has passed a procedural vote on a temporary funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, but a final vote has not yet been scheduled, and the bill still requires approval from the House of Representatives [1] - The House members are expected to return to Washington for voting, marking their first vote since September 19 [1] - There is a possibility that the government shutdown could end before the weekend based on the latest developments [1] Industry Insights - Gold prices increased by 2% to close at 935.98 yuan, while silver rose by 2.85% to 11,719 yuan [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court has raised questions regarding the legality of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty, which, along with a relief in dollar liquidity, has contributed to the rebound in precious metal prices [1] - The potential agreement to end the government shutdown is gradually taking shape, which is believed to limit the downside risk for precious metal prices [1] - The underlying logic for a bull market in precious metals remains solid [1]

Group 1 - Global gold ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive months, with October attracting $8.2 billion, leading to a 6% increase in total assets under management, reaching a record high of $503 billion [1] - The holdings increased by 1% month-on-month to 3,893 tons, indicating a growing interest in gold as an investment [1] - The average daily trading volume in the gold market surged to $561 billion in October, marking a historical high with a 45% month-on-month increase [1] Group 2 - Central banks globally purchased a net total of 39 tons of gold in September, the highest monthly level of the year, with Brazil leading at 15 tons [1] - The total net gold purchases by central banks for the year have reached 200 tons, reflecting a trend of increasing gold accumulation [1] - The Shanghai gold price rose by 0.72%, closing at 921.26 yuan per gram [1] Group 3 - The U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges due to government shutdowns and trade tensions, contributing to increased uncertainty in short-term policies [3] - Geopolitical risks and financial institution failures are prompting more central banks to increase their gold holdings, suggesting a potential long-term bullish trend for precious metals similar to the 1970s [3] - Short-term fluctuations in international gold prices are expected, with a potential buying opportunity if prices drop below $3,900 [3]