东吴期货21日早报称，近日贵金属震荡上行。一方面，美国宣称对欧洲国家加征关税，避险情绪再次升温利多贵金属；其次，鲍威尔遭到刑事起诉， 本质上看是美联储独立性再次遭到挑战，美元信用再遭打击；最后，波兰央行宣布增持黄金，另外丹麦养老基金决定抛售美债，都在一定程度上利好 黄金。后续重点关注美联储主席人选，美欧关税对峙，南美及格陵兰岛的地缘影响等。 现货黄金站上4800美元/盎司，多家品牌金饰价已逼近1500元，其中，周生生足金饰品报1495元/克，较1月20日1454元/克涨41元/克。老凤祥足金饰品 报1498元/克，较1月20日1456元/克涨42元/克。老庙黄金足金饰品报1493元/克，较1月20日1455元/克涨38元/克。 | E | 现货黄金(XAU) | 现货黄金(AU)<日线> | 叠加商品▼ < □ △ □ □ | K MA5:4688.727 MA10:4624.046 MA20:4514.517 MA40:4398.630 MA60:4288.542 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖出 4 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the spot gold price has reached a record high of $4,836.55 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.48% and a significant rise of over $200 per ounce this week, translating to nearly a 4% increase [1][2] - The year-to-date increase in gold prices exceeds 10%, amounting to nearly $500 per ounce [1][2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, including U.S. tariffs on European countries and the criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which challenge the independence of the Fed and undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar [2][3] Group 2 - Several central banks, including Poland's, have increased their gold holdings, while Danish pension funds have sold U.S. Treasury bonds, contributing to the bullish sentiment in the gold market [2] - The strategic value of gold as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios is becoming more pronounced, despite potential short-term volatility [3] - The price of gold jewelry has also surged, with several brands reporting prices nearing 1,500 yuan per gram, reflecting a significant increase from previous days [4]

1月21日，黄金现货和期货价格均首次站上4800美元/盎司关口。截至发稿前，黄金现货价格为4835.71美元/盎司，涨幅为1.53%；黄金期货价格为4827.7美元/ 盎司，涨幅为1.3%。 A股贵金属板块1月21日也集体大涨。截至发稿前，湖南白银涨停，四川黄金和招金黄金涨超8%，晓程科技涨超6%，中金黄金、赤峰黄金、山金国际等涨超 5%。 | | | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 5952.16 6.10% | | | | 成分股 基金 | | 简况(F10) 资金 | | 分析 | | 全部 | 龙头股 | 3日内有涨停 | 连板 | 连续 | | 名称/代码 | | 最新 ◆ | 涨幅 ◆ | 5日活 | | 湖南白银 | | 13.64 +10.00% +37. | | | | 002716 | | | | | | 领涨龙头1 2天2板 | | 最终涨停10:02 | | | | 四川黄金 | | 43.29 | +8.82% | +37. | | 001337 | | | | | | 领涨龙头2 | | | | | | 招金黄金 | ...

截至2026年1月21日 09:52，上海金ETF(159830)盘中交易价格刷新历史新高，成交3058.47万元。 截至1月20日，上海金ETF(159830)近4天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1864.13万元。 【产品亮点】 【机构观点】 华西证券表示，地缘冲突持续，地区局势紧张，相关问题持续发酵。全球范围内"去美元化"趋势的加速，共同推动了央行和投 资者持续购金。长期看，全球货币与债务担忧，使得黄金受益于债务和货币宽松的交易方向，美国债务总额已突破38.5万亿美 元，"大而美"法案的通过预计提高美国3.4万亿美元财政赤字，美国联邦政府在2025财年的预算赤字为1.8万亿美元，尽管关税收 入大幅增长，但与2024财年总体相比变化不大。全球多国财政赤字处于高位，降息趋势下国债利率上涨，体现对债务规模的担 忧，看好未来黄金价格。 【更多产品】 | 159281 | 港股通央企红利 ETF天弘 | T0+高股息 | | --- | --- | --- | | 159998 | 计算机ETF | AI算力+软件 | | 159770 | 机器人ETF | 机器人 | | 159310 | 芯片ETF天弘 | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The current market dynamics are influenced by a shift from inflation and central bank policies to fiscal and credit concerns, particularly highlighted by the recent performance of U.S. and Japanese bonds [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Japan's 40-year government bond yield has surpassed 4%, marking the first time in over 30 years, which has significant implications for global financial markets [2][3]. - The combination of high government debt and high interest rates in major developed economies, including the U.S. and Japan, is creating a precarious situation for fiscal sustainability [4]. - The market is increasingly worried about the astronomical interest payments on government debt, leading to three potential outcomes: fiscal tightening, continued large-scale borrowing, or central banks resorting to debt monetization [4][5]. - The recent sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries reflects a loss of confidence, as institutional investors like the Danish pension fund have opted to liquidate their holdings [6][8][9]. - The systemic rise in risk-free rates is negatively impacting the valuation models of all risk assets, leading to a broader market correction [11]. Additional Important Content - Gold prices have surged to historical highs, driven not by traditional inflation concerns but by fears regarding sovereign credit and the weakening of the dollar, indicating a shift towards "de-dollarization" [12][13]. - The current market environment is characterized by a transition to a new era, driven by debt cycles, geopolitical tensions, and a restructuring of monetary order [14][15]. - The exit of Japan from its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and subsequent interest rate hikes signal a reduction in the motivation for Japanese investors to hold foreign bonds, particularly U.S. Treasuries, potentially leading to a capital outflow and further imbalance in the global bond market [17]. - The correlation between asset classes is changing, with both stocks and bonds experiencing declines, and the sources of risk are shifting from economic cycles to political decisions [18]. - Investors are advised to reassess what constitutes a "safe asset," as long-term government bonds may become a source of volatility rather than stability, emphasizing the need for assets with strong cash flow and real repayment attributes [18].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold in London surpassing $4800 per ounce, leading to significant increases in gold ETFs [1][2]. Short-term Drivers - The escalation of geopolitical risks and macroeconomic disturbances have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, making global geopolitical tensions a key catalyst for short-term gold price increases [4]. - Recent U.S. economic data showed a lower-than-expected rebound in the December 2025 CPI, with core CPI rising by 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3%. Additionally, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 198,000, the lowest since late November, which may impact interest rate expectations [4]. Medium to Long-term Support - Global liquidity easing and a trend towards de-dollarization are expected to provide solid support for gold prices. In the past year, nine out of ten G10 countries have lowered interest rates, which is anticipated to continue, reducing the holding costs of gold [5]. - Concerns over U.S. debt and government intervention have led central banks to increase gold reserves, with recent data indicating that global central bank gold holdings have surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996. This trend is likely to persist [6]. - The combination of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and de-dollarization trends positions gold as a potential new asset pricing anchor, with Citibank predicting a spot gold price of $5000 per ounce in the next three months [6]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider gold-related ETFs to capitalize on the entire industry chain. The two core investment vehicles highlighted are: - Gold Fund ETF (518800): Direct investment in physical gold, exempt from value-added tax, providing a convenient tool for ordinary investors to track gold price movements [7]. - Gold Stock ETF (517400): Covers stocks across the entire gold industry, allowing investors to benefit from rising gold prices and industry growth [7].

2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.52%报 111.490 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 108.180 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 105.875 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.05%报 102.444 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 20 日以 ...

格隆汇1月21日｜早盘沪金期货持续走高，现涨超3%。新湖期货研报显示，格陵兰岛事件持续发酵，欧 洲议会冻结此前美欧达成的贸易协议的批准程序，欧美股市均大幅下跌，以金银为代表的贵金属大幅收 涨。当地时间周三美国最高院开审"特朗普诉库克案"，鲍威尔罕见出席，关注美联储独立性情。同时， 贝森特表示特朗普最快将于下周敲定下一任美联储主席人选，前美联储历史沃什当选概率最高。短期来 看，地缘不确定性仍然存在，格陵兰岛事件仍在发酵，避险情绪将对金银等贵金属价格形成一定支撑。 中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑 贵金属中枢上行，后续贵金属可能仍偏强。 ...

无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 1月20日，黄金股票ETF（517400）、黄金基金ETF（518800）分别收涨2.45%、0.72%。金价继续走 高，伦敦现货价格突破4700美元/盎司；从中长期来看，流动性宽松和去美元化仍然构成金价的关键支 撑因素。 从中长期来看，尽管地缘政治的危机呈现脉冲性，故而金价可能随着地缘危机的缓和而回调，但全球流 动性宽松和去美元化趋势对金价构成比较稳定的支撑。在过去一年，G10国家中有9个下调了利率，而 这一趋势在今年有望延续，从而降低黄金的持有成本。基于对美国庞大债务及当前政府干涉主义的担 忧，全球央行继续购入黄金，最新的数据显示，自1996年以来，全球央行持有的黄金储备首次超过了美 国国债，这一趋势有望延续。 基于上述理由，金价的中枢或仍将震荡上行，投资者或可逢回调布局以摊低成本。投资者或可关注直接 投资实物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（5 ...

Group 1 - The core market sentiment is shifting towards a "sell America" strategy due to rising geopolitical tensions and threats of increased tariffs from the U.S. government [1][2][4] - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 870.74 points (1.76%) to close at 48,488.59 points, and the S&P 500 falling by 143.15 points (2.06%) to 6,796.86 points [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the "fear index," surged by 26.67% to 20.09, marking the highest level since November 25, 2025, indicating increased investor anxiety [3] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.316%, the highest since August 25, 2025, reflecting investor concerns over the U.S. government's financial situation [1][3] - European investors are contemplating halting investments in U.S. assets or even selling off existing holdings due to the political climate, although significant action may require further escalation [5] - Analysts suggest that while the current geopolitical tensions are notable, there are no immediate signs of a financial weaponization risk between the U.S. and Europe [4]