宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘沪金低开震荡运行。美国非农就业高于市场 ...

彭博美元指数涨0.22%，报1191.83点，日内交投区间为1188.43-1195.52点。 周四（7月3日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数涨0.44%，报97.204点，日内呈现出上字形走势，整体交投区间 为96.689-97.422点，北京时间20:30发布美国非农就业报告时从96.90点下方拉升至接近97.40点的水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, dismissed concerns that the recent depreciation of the dollar threatens its status as the world's primary currency, emphasizing the importance of long-term measures to maintain the dollar's position as a global reserve currency [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index fell nearly 11% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [1] - This depreciation occurred amid concerns regarding the Trump administration's policies, particularly the potential economic impact of increased tariffs and a tough diplomatic stance towards long-time allies [1] Group 2: Economic Policies - Mnuchin stated that the Republican tax reform has "created conditions for economic growth," suggesting that such policies are crucial for the dollar's strength in the long run [1]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected strong non-farm payroll data for June has significantly altered the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, leading to a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in the near term [1][3][15]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected 110,000 [6][8]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the anticipated 4.3% [8][12]. - Recent months' employment data have been revised upwards, with April's non-farm employment numbers adjusted from 147,000 to 158,000 and May's from 139,000 to 144,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [7][18]. Market Reaction - Following the release of the employment data, futures traders abandoned bets on a July rate cut, with the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July rising to 93.3% and the chance of a 25 basis point cut falling to 6.7% [2][9]. - The U.S. dollar index surged by over 0.6%, while major U.S. stock index futures also rose, reaching intraday highs [11][12]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts suggest that the strong non-farm data may support the Fed's decision to remain on hold for a longer period, alleviating concerns about the labor market and reducing the urgency for rate cuts [17][20]. - Gregory Faranello, head of interest rate trading and strategy at AmeriVetSecurities, stated that the door for a July rate cut has likely closed, allowing the Fed to take a wait-and-see approach [16][20]. - The data indicates that the labor market has successfully weathered uncertainties from trade and immigration policies, which may lessen the pressure on the Fed to cut rates [15][20].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market demonstrates strong resilience, with June employment growth exceeding expectations for the fourth consecutive month and a further decline in the unemployment rate, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach in its next interest rate decision [1][5]. Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, with April and May's non-farm employment figures revised upward by 16,000 [1][5]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2% [3][8]. - The significant growth in state and local government employment was a key driver for the better-than-expected data, while private sector employment only increased by 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [5][6]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased from 170.51 million to 173.38 million, with the number of unemployed individuals decreasing from 7.237 million to 7.1025 million [9]. - Disparities in unemployment rates were noted among different demographic groups, with the unemployment rate for African Americans rising to 6.8%, while rates for adult women and whites decreased to 3.6% [9]. Wage Growth and Inflation Concerns - Average hourly earnings rose by only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3% and the previous month's 0.4%, with the annual wage growth rate at 3.7%, also lower than the revised 3.8% [11]. - The moderate wage growth may alleviate some inflationary pressures for the Federal Reserve [11]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the likelihood of a cut during the July 29-30 meeting dropping to near zero, while the probability for a September cut is around 75% [12]. - The market anticipates a total reduction of 50 basis points within the year, down from a prior expectation of 64 basis points [12]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures saw a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.3%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased to 4.261% [16].

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, with the previous value revised from 139,000 to 144,000 [1] - The unemployment rate for June fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.20% [1] - Average hourly wage growth for June was 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, and the year-over-year growth was 3.7%, also below the expected 3.9% [1] Group 2 - Following the non-farm data release, traders reduced bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a September rate cut now at approximately 80%, down from 98% before the report [2] - The report indicated that job growth was primarily in government positions, with state and local government jobs increasing by 73,000, while federal government jobs decreased by 7,000 [2] - The construction sector saw an increase of 15,000 jobs in June, marking the largest gain since December of the previous year [2] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the employment report does not urgently call for an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as job growth has consistently exceeded expectations [3] - The decline in the unemployment rate may be linked to shrinking immigrant labor, with the number of foreign-born workers decreasing to 32.6 million in June from 33.7 million in March [3] - The employment report provided support for the U.S. dollar, indicating a resilient labor market despite some moderation in private employment data [3]

智通财经7月3日电，美国强劲的6月份就业数据公布后，美元指数拉升，一度涨0.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index has increased by approximately 40 points, currently reported at 97.26 [1] - US stock futures have shown a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.3% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.261%, reflecting a decrease of 0.029 (-0.68%) [4][5] Group 2 - Spot gold has decreased by approximately $15, currently priced at $3334.40 per ounce [1]

美国强劲的6月份就业数据公布后，美元指数拉升，一度涨0.6%。 ...

美国6月非农就业报告超预期，新增就业人口14.7万人（市场共识11万人），失业率意外跌至4.1%（市场共识4.3%）。#行情 美元指数收复97。美债市场跳水，收益率飙升 ，其中2年期国债收益率领涨，上涨12个基点至3.90%。 7月降息的概率从数据前的20%降至零，目前市场不再认为9月降息板上钉钉。 ...