今天下午指数探底回升，短线调整结束了吗？和讯投顾郑镇华分析。第一个，短线的探底回升是属于 3880点的第一个支撑的，支撑小反弹目前调整没有结束，特别是在中旬到月底之间，市场的弱势格局没 有变化，但是短线有两个因素对市场有直接影响，第一个是外部因素，美联储的降息预期，还有他的是 不是进一步的扩表对市场有较大影响。 第二个是咱们这边，比如说下午的房地产板块的回升，主要对于房地产贴息的影响，特别是重要会议会 不会再明确告诉大家，要不要降息或者降准那对市场会有影响，如果有的话那重磅利好市场可能还会再 上一下，如果没有的话，那我认为下面还有个二次牵连过程，特别是3850~3860这个重要支撑位置。极 端情况下3830如果月底到这些点位的话出现信号了。 ...

"因为白银涨势过快，将看涨预期下调至中性评级。"瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究部主管Carsten Menke对第 一财经分析，11月初以来白银价格涨超20%，年内可能实现1979年以来首次翻倍。 12月10日，COMEX白银期货主力合约盘中强势突破60美元/盎司整数关口，最高触及62.14美元/盎司， 现货白银同步刷新历史纪录至61.6美元/盎司。 截至发稿，COMEX白银期货年内累计涨幅已达109%，实现翻倍增长，远超同期黄金60%的涨幅，市场 普遍判断白银牛市已进入加速阶段。 有机构因白银涨势过快，将看涨预期下调至中性评级 国际银价正式迈入"60美元时代"。 白银：投机性大涨？ 自11月初以来，国内外白银价格携手上涨。 截至12月10日,COMEX白银期货已累计上涨逾24%；同期沪银期货价格也累计上涨24%并突破14419元/ 千克。 交易人士告诉第一财经，投机资金大举涌入，短期在白银挤仓背景下，贵金属或维持偏强运行。 交易所也开始提高保证金比例和涨跌停板。12月10日盘后上期所发布通知称，自12月12日（星期五）收 盘结算时起，白银期货AG2602合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为15%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为 ...

中新经纬 . 中新经纬是由中国新闻社主办的财经新媒体，拥有中国互联网新闻信息采编发布服务资质。以手机客户端（APP）等为主要传播平台，以"权威、前瞻、 专业、亲和"为特色宗旨，传播财经资讯、解读经济政策、讲述商界故事，打造精英的财经资讯平台。 以下文章来源于中新经纬 ，作者李自曼 今年以来贵金属涨跌情况 截图自Wind 白银涨幅超黄金 Wind数据显示，2025年10月20日，现货黄金达到4381.29美元/盎司，创历史最高，此后一度回落至4000美元/盎司以下。近期，现货黄金价格在4200美元/ 盎司上下浮动。 白银涨幅超黄金。 文 ｜ 李自曼 编辑 ｜ 李晓萱 来源｜ 中新经纬（ID：jwview） 封面来源 ｜ I C photo 9日纽约交易时段，现货白银价格突破60美元/盎司关口，盘中价格一度冲高至60.83美元/盎司，创下历史新高。最终报收60.65美元/盎司，单日涨幅达 4.4%。 Wind显示，截至北京时间10日发稿前，现货白银价格年内涨幅超110%，现货黄金价格年内涨幅超60%。现货白银价格涨幅显著高于现货黄金，到底是何 原因？ | | | | 交易品种 | | | | | | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has surged over 100% this year, outpacing gold, driven by supply-demand imbalances, expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, and unprecedented investment demand [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary driver of silver price increases is a severe supply-demand imbalance. The photovoltaic industry is the largest consumer of silver, with global silver usage in this sector expected to reach 7,560 tons by 2025, doubling from 2022 and accounting for 55% of total global silver demand [3]. - The silver consumption in the electric vehicle sector is projected to reach 2,566 tons, growing at over 12% annually. Additionally, silver usage in AI computing servers has increased by 30% compared to traditional equipment, and the construction of 5G base stations has also boosted silver demand [3]. - On the supply side, global silver production has fallen to 820 million ounces, a 12% decline from the peak in 2020. Notably, silver production in Mexico has decreased, and several silver mines in Peru have ceased operations, with recycled silver supply only growing by 1.2%, which is insufficient to meet industrial demand [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - Expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy are also significant contributors to the rise in silver prices. The market anticipates an over 80% probability of interest rate cuts in December, which would lower the holding costs for precious metals like silver, thereby supporting price increases [3]. Group 3: Investment Demand Surge - Investment demand for silver is projected to reach a historical high of 1.334 billion ounces by 2025, representing 37% of total global silver demand. Over the past six months, global silver ETF holdings have increased by over 500 tons, driven by both retail investors and institutional funds, particularly in the North American market [4]. Group 4: Divergent Institutional Views - Institutional perspectives on silver's price trajectory are divided. UBS has raised its 2026 silver price target to between $58 and $60 per ounce, with a possibility of reaching $65 per ounce. Citigroup and Standard Chartered predict silver prices will stabilize above $55 per ounce in late 2025 to early 2026 [6]. - Conversely, some institutions express caution. For instance, Rida Futures warns that the cumulative price increase of over 100% this year may lead to heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic data, potentially amplifying the risk of price corrections. TD Securities has cautioned that global silver supply will significantly increase in 2026, with ample inventory in London, suggesting that silver prices may retreat to the mid-$40 range early next year [6].

隔夜白银上涨4.4%，成功站上60美元重要关口，年内最大涨幅超过115%，涨幅领跑贵金属。本轮白银上涨是多种因素共振的结果，美联储降息预期 升温、全球供应紧张加剧，以及因其被列入美国关键矿产清单而获得的长期支撑等多重因素共同构成了上涨动力，综合各方因素来看，白银有望保持 当下上涨势头。 逼空大戏上演 库存持续紧张 这轮白银大涨，最直接的导火索在于年初关税引发的抢运潮。6月特朗普将钢铝关税提升至50%后，市场开始担心白银未来可能也被纳入高关税清 单，于是很多交易商抢先一步，把白银从伦敦金库运往美国，以躲避可能的高关税，这直接导致伦敦白银库存紧张。 最近美国的经济数据呈现明显的特征：就业市场降温、经济活动降温、通胀预期有所降温。美国2025年10月就业职位空缺数量为767万个，略高于去 年同期的761.5万个和9月份的765.8万个。雇主招聘数量为514.9万个，低于9月份的536.7万个和去年10月的535万个。10月雇主主动裁员和解职的人数 为185.4万个，环比和同比分别增加7.3万个和6.6万个，为2023年1月以来最高水平。最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗 位，为2023 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has attracted buying interest, ending a three-day decline against the US dollar, supported by expectations of a potential emergency rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) next week and cautious market sentiment [1][2] - Japan's Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) exceeded market expectations, reinforcing bets on an imminent rate hike by the BoJ, although concerns over expansionary fiscal policy and economic growth limited new bullish positions on the yen [2][3] - Despite rising expectations for a BoJ rate hike, the yen has not significantly increased its intraday gains, with the BoJ's recent data showing a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the CGPI, indicating inflation levels remain above historical averages [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision is anticipated to influence the short-term direction of the US dollar, with traders closely monitoring the Fed's economic projections and Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks for clues on future rate cuts [4] - The market expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, which will be a key factor affecting the USD/JPY exchange rate [4] - The technical outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish, with a recent breakout above the 155.30 resistance level seen as a significant signal for bullish momentum [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Hong Kong stock market is more sensitive to external risks, particularly due to the unclear future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve and the upcoming peak of lock-up stock releases in December, which may lead to liquidity shocks [1][2] - The recent significant decline in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to external factors, including Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell's statements on interest rate cuts, leading to a net outflow of foreign capital from emerging markets [1][2] - The Hong Kong market is facing a peak in lock-up stock releases, with a total of HKD 126 billion in lock-up stocks set to be released in December, which is expected to impact market sentiment negatively [2] Group 2 - Potential rebound time points are identified, with December's mid to late period being crucial due to the upcoming economic work conference and the Bank of Japan's interest rate statements, which could provide positive signals for the market [3] - The end of the lock-up stock peak in early January, combined with the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, could also create favorable conditions for liquidity if the interest rate path leans dovish [4] - Technical indicators suggest that the Hong Kong stock market has sufficient downward momentum, with the Hang Seng Index currently positioned between the 120-day and 250-day moving averages, indicating a potential for rebound [4]

【基本面消息】 数据显示，12月10日上海黄金现货价格报价952.40元/克，相较于期货主力价格（956.40元/克）贴水4元/ 克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 11月下旬以来金价上行的动力主要来自于美联储降息预期持续升温，美元指数高位回落。 | 12月10日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 956.40 | 0.26% | 222609 | 192659 | 短期市场对美联储降息预期计价较为充分，而市场风险偏好回升使金价承压。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 临近美联储12月议息会议，短期市场趋于谨慎，黄金波动下降，等待议息会议结果。 【机构观点】 广发期货：欧美债市趋弱引发担忧 金价先跌后涨 逻辑：美联储降息预期升温，美国就业市场疲软支撑金价，同时欧美债市趋弱引发担忧，金价先跌后 涨。数据：国际金价收盘 4206.92 美元 / 盎司，涨 0.43%，盘中从 4170 美元下方拉升超 40 美元。观 点：4200 美元附近转入震荡，单边短期观望，可做虚值期权双卖策略。 ...

就在白银工业需求爆发的同时，金融市场送来"东风"。RJ Futures分析师Bob Haberkorn直言："白银此轮上涨与美联储降息预期高度相关。"CME数据显示， 市场对美联储12月降息的预期概率已飙升至87.6%，这种强烈预期让美元承压，贵金属集体起舞。 SILVER Box 11 40 : TECHAN 更为关键的是，白银对利率变化的敏感度远超黄金。兴业期货分析指出："白银市场规模较小，价格弹性更高，在降息周期中往往表现出更强的爆发力。"当 前金银比仍处于历史高位，这意味着白银仍有巨大的补涨空间。 警惕高波动下的投资风险 你知道吗？就在黄金屡创新高的同时，白银这个"穷人的黄金"已经悄然完成了一场史诗级逆袭！年内涨幅高达110%，价格突破60美元关口，这种疯狂涨势 背后究竟藏着怎样的财富密码？ 双重属性引爆白银牛市 当全球投资者还在为黄金疯狂时，白银以其独特的"工业+金融"双重属性悄然开启了暴走模式。与黄金不同，白银不仅是避险资产，更是光伏、AI服务器等 新兴产业的关键原料。南华期货研究院周骥指出："光伏用银量占比持续攀升，AI设备用银需求爆发，这种工业刚需为银价提供了坚实支撑。" 数据显示，全球白银库 ...

12月10日盘中，在岸人民币对美元汇率持续上涨，逼近7.06元关口，创2024年10月10日以来新高。Wind 数据显示，截至14:45，在岸人民币对美元汇率报7.0613元，较前收盘价上涨80个基点，盘中最高报 7.0605元。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，11月下旬以来，美元指数走软叠加央行中间价报价释放的引导信号， 人民币汇率逐步升至年内新高并实现"三价合一"。展望后市，短期来看，市场对于美联储12月的降息预 期已充分定价，国内政策对经济的提振效果有待显现，预计年内人民币有望偏强运行。 离岸人民币对美元汇率再次升破7.06元关口。Wind数据显示，截至14:45，离岸人民币对美元汇率报 7.0583元，较前收盘价上涨19个基点，盘中最高报7.0571元。 ...