2025 年 08 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆小幅收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3985 -28（-0.70%） | 3996 +7（+0.18%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3088 -40（-1.28%） | 3108 +14（+0.45%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | +2.25（+0.21%） 1058.25 | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 291 -2.8（-0.95%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3060～3110， 较昨-20至持平； 8-9月M2509+60， 持平； 9月M2601-40， | 8月底前提货M2509-20； 现货基差M2601+0/+20； 持平； 10月M2601+0/+20/+60， 持平； 10- | | | | 1月M2601+40/+80， 持平或+10； 持平 ...

Sino-US Agricultural Cooperation - The Chinese Ambassador to the US stated that agriculture is a pillar of Sino-US relations, with potential for complementary advantages, but protectionism casts a shadow over cooperation [1] - The Ambassador emphasized that agriculture should not be politicized, and farmers should not pay the price for trade wars [1] - Restrictions on Chinese citizens and enterprises purchasing agricultural land are considered political manipulation under the guise of national security [1] US Soybean Industry Concerns - The US Soybean Association expressed significant financial pressure on soybean farmers due to falling prices and high input costs [1] - The Association stated that US soybean farmers cannot afford a prolonged trade dispute with their largest customer [1]

Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden focused on strategic issues in Sino-U.S. relations and major global and regional problems [2][4][11] - Xi emphasized the need for both countries to explore a correct way to coexist and to find the right direction for the development of bilateral relations, aiming to return to a healthy and stable development track [2][5] - Both leaders agreed on the importance of maintaining strategic communication and regular consultations between their diplomatic teams [13] Group 2 - Xi highlighted that the Taiwan issue is a core interest of China and a fundamental political basis for Sino-U.S. relations, urging the U.S. to adhere to the One China policy [7][8] - The leaders discussed the importance of mutual respect and cooperation, emphasizing that competition should be constructive rather than adversarial [9][12] - Xi pointed out that both countries have shared responsibilities to manage differences and prevent misunderstandings from escalating into conflict [12][13] Group 3 - The two leaders acknowledged the significance of cooperation on global challenges such as climate change and food security, agreeing to enhance dialogue and collaboration in these areas [12][13] - Xi reiterated that the U.S. should respect China's development path and not seek to change China's political system, while Biden affirmed that the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence [8][12] - Both sides recognized the need for ongoing communication to ensure that their relationship remains stable and beneficial for both nations and the world [11][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight US stocks tumbled and the stock market corrected yesterday, leading to a subdued market sentiment at today's opening. After the mid - session, optimism resurfaced, possibly influenced by some positive interim report data and the expectation of eased Sino - US relations. Short - term market sentiment remains volatile, with shrinking trading volume, indicating that some funds have become cautious. The market is expected to fluctuate near the pressure line for some time, awaiting signals of the Fed's monetary policy adjustment at the Jackson Hole meeting. Currently, maintain positions and be prepared to hedge against downside risks. Given the continuous rise of futures basis boosted by sentiment, using options for hedging may be a better choice [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index rose with shrinking volume, and the small and medium - cap stocks performed relatively strongly, while the gap between large and small - cap stocks narrowed. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 180.1 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues, and the current work is progressing smoothly. - The parade will last about 70 minutes and will showcase some strategic heavy weapons, high - precision strike equipment, and unmanned and anti - unmanned equipment from the land, sea, and air for the first time [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Insurance strategy: Hold spot and buy put options [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 1.16 | 1.08 | 1.40 | 1.23 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.0668 | 6.3114 | 11.9244 | 29.8722 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 2.1399 | 0.0678 | 1.6892 | 6.2534 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.7018 | 10.6633 | 22.8358 | 40.0625 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.8761 | 0.2909 | 0.7608 | 2.3675 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 1.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.89 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 2.35 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2408.234 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | - 180.135 | [6]

Group 1 - The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 marks a subtle "thaw" in US-Russia relations, indicating a willingness to address mutual concerns despite no formal agreements being signed [1][3] - Trump's positive remarks about Putin and the meeting's atmosphere suggest a potential shift in diplomatic engagement, although he deflected responsibility for the Ukraine issue onto Zelensky [1][3] - The cancellation of the US Treasury Secretary's visit to India casts a shadow over India's trade prospects, highlighting the complexities of US-India relations amid rising tensions [1][5] Group 2 - Wang Yi's visit to India following the US-Russia meeting is seen as a strategic move by China to strengthen ties with India, especially after recent high-level interactions have improved bilateral relations [3][5] - The economic complementarity between China and India, particularly in manufacturing and services, presents opportunities for collaboration, but security issues must be addressed first [5][7] - India's recognition of the impracticality of a strict alignment with the US indicates a strategic shift towards a more independent foreign policy, seeking to balance relations between China and the US [7]

Group 1 - The meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska concluded without any specific agreements, but Trump expressed satisfaction, calling it "perfect" [1] - Trump announced a temporary delay in imposing tariffs on China due to its purchase of Russian oil, interpreting this as a potential softening of U.S. policy towards China [2] - Trump's strong rhetoric regarding potential sanctions on countries trading with Russia, including China, indicates a strategy to exert pressure on China while negotiating with Putin [2][4] Group 2 - China's purchase of Russian oil is a natural outcome of their long-term strategic partnership, and the ongoing conflict has not altered this relationship [4] - Trump criticized previous U.S. administrations for their policies towards Russia and China, claiming they contributed to a closer Sino-Russian relationship, which he views as a risk to the U.S. [6] - The historical context of Sino-Russian relations shows that their cooperation is based on mutual respect and shared interests, rather than solely on U.S. policy [6][11] Group 3 - Trump's arguments questioning the sustainability of Sino-Russian relations based on geographical and demographic factors are deemed flawed, as successful international relations depend on shared interests [8] - The deepening economic ties between China and Russia, including a record bilateral trade of over $240 billion in 2023, highlight the strength of their partnership [11] - The cooperation between China and Russia is characterized as a new model of great power relations, emphasizing non-alignment and mutual respect, countering U.S. attempts to undermine it [13]

Group 1: Soybean Industry Impact - Soybean prices have dropped to $10 per bushel, significantly below the $12 production cost, leading to a loss of $200 per acre for farmers [1] - The U.S.-China tariff war has resulted in a decline in U.S. soybean demand, while Brazilian soybeans have gained market share due to higher protein content and competitive pricing [1] - In July, soybean imports reached 11.67 million tons, the highest for the same period historically, with most imports coming from Brazil rather than the U.S. [1] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations and Economic Strategy - The tariff war is part of a broader U.S. strategy against China, which is often portrayed as a threat by U.S. politicians [2] - Former President's son Neil Bush challenges the narrative of China as a threat, highlighting China's economic growth and poverty alleviation efforts [2][4] - The U.S. has implemented policies like chip bans that have negatively impacted American businesses while failing to hinder China's advancements [4] Group 3: Perception and Policy Critique - Neil Bush argues that the U.S. is creating a false narrative of China as an enemy to distract from domestic issues [4][6] - He emphasizes that China's rise does not pose a threat to the U.S., as China seeks internal prosperity rather than external conquest [8] - The current U.S. policies, including tariffs and technology restrictions, are seen as harmful to both U.S. interests and global stability [6][8] Group 4: Call for Understanding - Neil Bush calls for Americans to visit China to gain a true understanding of the country, rather than relying on political rhetoric [10] - He stresses the importance of positive interaction between the U.S. and China, as both are major global economies [10]

据极目新闻报道，彭博社记者提问，特朗普表示可能会因中国购买俄罗斯石油对华征收次级关税，但未 提供具体细节。外交部对此有何评论？外交部发言人表示，中方在有关问题上的立场是一贯、明确的。 中国同包括俄罗斯在内的世界各国开展正常经贸能源合作，正当合法。我们将继续根据自身国家利益， 采取合理的能源保障措施。 未来，中美关系走向何方，还得看美方能否摒弃霸权思维，以平等、尊重的态度与中方进行对话和合 作。要是美方还继续这样无理取闹，那中美之间的矛盾恐怕还会进一步加剧。咱就拭目以待，看看美方 接下来还会耍出什么花样。 另外，美方还要求中方增加对美国农产品的采购，还要限制高科技产品的出口。这不是典型的双标嘛！ 他们想把自己的农产品强行塞进中国市场，却又害怕中国的高科技产品威胁到他们的优势地位。中国的 市场是开放的，但这种带有明显不公平性的要求，中方当然不会买账。 最后一条，美方要求中方在国际组织中支持美国的立场，跟随美国的指挥棒转。中国在国际事务中一直 秉持着独立自主的和平外交政策，根据事情本身的是非曲直来决定立场，怎么可能沦为美方的附庸。这 5条要求，每一条都不合理，每一条都触及到中国的核心利益，中方全部拒绝，那是理所当然 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly focusing on the potential threat of secondary tariffs and the overall strategic stability in U.S.-China relations [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations and Tariff Delays - On August 12, Trump signed an executive order to delay 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days while maintaining 10% tariffs, which was anticipated by the market [4]. - The delay occurred at the last moment, suggesting a possible deterrent strategy [4]. Secondary Tariff Threats - Trump's threat to impose a 25% secondary tariff on China is not merely about increasing oil purchases but is aimed at leveraging China's influence on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire [5][6]. - The U.S. trade war has not effectively pressured China’s manufacturing or exports, and it has provided other countries with reasons to remain passive [5]. Energy Security Concerns - The secondary tariff threat touches on China's energy security, which is a more sensitive issue compared to trade in oil or agricultural products [6]. - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to unilateral sanctions and the trade war, emphasizing that there are no winners in such conflicts [6]. U.S.-Russia Relations and Its Impact - Trump's dual approach towards Russia includes military support for Ukraine and economic pressure through tariffs on countries buying Russian oil [6]. - A successful U.S.-Russia meeting could reduce the immediate need for secondary tariffs against China [6]. Future of U.S.-China Relations - The article predicts that U.S.-China relations will remain "strategically stable" and gradually improve, setting the stage for potential high-level meetings [7]. - The U.S. has specific demands from China regarding issues like rare earths and fentanyl, but the leverage has diminished recently [7]. Negotiation Dynamics - Achieving significant breakthroughs in negotiations will take time and depend on the outcomes of future high-level dialogues [7]. - The current trade war may hinder the U.S. from effectively engaging allies, as countries may choose to wait and see how U.S.-China relations evolve [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the extension of the "truce period" for tariffs between the US and China by 90 days, as stated by US President Trump, who emphasizes the importance of dialogue to address trade imbalances and national economic security issues [1] - Trump highlighted his good relationship with Chinese leaders and indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding future developments in US-China relations [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has released information regarding the US-China Stockholm economic and trade talks, but specific details were not provided in the response [1]