半夜，几个行业群炸了。Temu突然宣布暂停所有直邮美国的服务，没留一点余地，直接掐断。这消息一传出来，美国电商圈像被扔进冰水，一瞬间安静得 让人发毛。 有人说是物流问题，有人说是市场调整。但真相，远不止这些。 Temu不是普通电商。三年时间，它从无到有，从边缘跑到了亚马逊鼻尖。去年黑五，一场促销让美国消费者疯狂下单，亚马逊仓库一度空了半壁江山。便 宜、好用、速度快，不是谁都能做得到的。背后靠的，是中国制造的强大体系，还有数以万计的中小商户顶着汇率压力，把货一件件送出国门。 但Temu太快了，快到美国政府坐不住了。 最近几个月，美国官方开始频频提"数据安全"，看起来像是出于保护，但说白了，就是不想中国平台在他们家门口跑赢。借口摆在那儿，刀子却砍向产业 链。关税、审查、封堵，一招接一招。这次直接断了Temu的直邮，受伤的不止是平台——商户的仓库货压着，物流的单量没了，美国那边快递公司先扛不 住了。 中国非但没动美债，还在悄悄加码黄金储备。2024年4月，中国央行黄金储备达7280万盎司，连续18个月增加，这是自2002年以来最长的增持周期。不动声 色，却处处关键。 美债，是人民币稳汇率的重要工具。动它，相当于自断 ...

（中国制造出口海外多国） 为何中国商品如此出色呢？答案无非是完整而庞大的工业体系。中国是全世界唯一一个拥有联合国定义 的所有41个工业大类的国家，这不仅意味着技术储备和生产能力，更是全球产业链上难得的稳定角色。 多年来，中国凭借其规模效应和过硬的质量赢得了世界市场的信任。 在特朗普对华加税的大背景下，沃尔玛的心路历程相当复杂，既然对中国强硬不起来，那就服软好了。 （沃尔玛） 随着特朗普的这场关税大戏持续上演，美国的零售商们，特别是沃尔玛，开始意识到自己玩砸了。经过 一番内部计算和外部压力，沃尔玛通知中国供应商：继续发货！至于那糟心的关税？则由美方自己承 担。 这一消息出现的很突然，也暴露出了美国在国际贸易中的窘迫。 当谈到中国制造时，不得不提到它的精良工艺、广泛的种类和超高的性价比。作为全球最大的制造业国 家，中国在许多领域，都几乎占据了主导地位。 中国制造业产值占全球30%以上，造船、无人机、钢铁等多个领域的产量，更是超过全球的一半。有这 样的背景，谁能说轻易替代就能替代？ 反观一些欧美国家，却常因产业链单一而不得不面临高成本。例如，真正的"欧洲制造"可能质量不错， 但价格却让人望而却步。在一场全球化的商业 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's record import of 7.3 million barrels of crude oil from Canada in March reflects a significant shift in energy trade dynamics amid the US-China trade war, impacting both countries' economies [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Trade Dynamics - The US has imposed a 125% additional tariff on Chinese imports, aiming to suppress China's energy demand, which led to a drastic reduction in China's imports of US crude oil and LNG, with LNG imports dropping to zero and crude oil imports plummeting by 90% from 29 million barrels per month in 2024 to 3 million barrels in March 2025 [1][3]. - Canada has become a new key supplier for China, with the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline facilitating increased crude oil exports, resulting in a significant rise in imports from Canada [3]. - The US is facing substantial losses in oil orders, estimated at several billion dollars monthly, as well as negative impacts on related supply chains and employment [3]. Group 2: Agricultural Trade Changes - The trade war has also affected agricultural exports, with US exports of soybeans to China dropping by 54% year-on-year, while Australia and Brazil have seen significant increases in their beef and poultry exports to China [3]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - President Trump has shown signs of softening his stance on tariffs, indicating a desire to lower them to prevent further trade stagnation with China [4]. - Canada is navigating a complex situation, benefiting economically from Chinese orders while politically aligning with the US, creating a contradictory stance [6]. - China has signed a 15-year LNG agreement with the UAE worth approximately 700 billion RMB, marking a significant step in energy cooperation and challenging the dominance of the US dollar [6]. Group 4: Strategic Energy Positioning - China's actions demonstrate a robust capability in energy strategic planning, reducing reliance on US energy and diversifying supply sources, thereby enhancing its energy security [8][9]. - The shift in energy trade dynamics is contributing to a more multipolar global energy market, diminishing the US's previous dominance in LNG exports [9].

据上观新闻报道，近日，商务部官网更新信息显示，李成钢现已担任商务部党组副书记、国际贸易谈判 代表（正部长级）兼副部长。当天稍早前，人社部网站发布国务院任免国家工作人员信息。其中，任命 李成钢为商务部国际贸易谈判代表（正部长级）兼副部长。 特朗普（资料图） 这一人事变动发生的时机极为微妙，正值中美"关税大战"进入新阶段。特朗普政府在贸易战中手段频 出，先是威胁对中国商品征收最高达245%的关税，试图以这种"数字游戏"和高压手段压垮中方谈判意 志；另一方面，又秘密游说七十多个国家，妄图禁止中国企业在这些国家建厂、转口、设点，将中国商 品从全球供应链中剔除，以此孤立中国。然而，现实却给了特朗普政府沉重一击。欧洲松口，计划取消 对中国电动车的惩罚性关税，连"最低价销售线"也可能放宽；韩国迅速派出高规格代表团赴华磋商自贸 协定；日本和东南亚也重新评估与中国的投资依赖度。特朗普精心策划的"外部孤立"策略，还未真正实 施便已走向崩溃。 贸易局势剑拔弩张之际，李成钢的走马上任蕴含着深远战略布局。外国媒体纷纷解读，这一任命折射出 中方的两大关键态度。李成钢履历丰富，处事风格硬朗果决，未来一旦开启中美贸易谈判，他必将成为 令美方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is signaling a softening stance on tariffs against China, indicating a potential shift from "maximum pressure" to "intermittent easing" in trade negotiations [1][2][3] Group 1: U.S. Government's Tariff Position - Multiple U.S. officials have indicated a willingness to lower tariffs on China, with President Trump expressing optimism about reaching an agreement [1][2] - The current effective tariff rate on Chinese goods is at 145%, with discussions about potentially reducing it to 50%-65% [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the softening stance is influenced by negative market feedback and stalled negotiations with other countries [2][5] Group 2: Economic Impact and Market Reactions - The financial markets have reacted negatively to the tariff policies, with the S&P 500 index dropping by 1.9% from April 1 to April 25, and the dollar index falling by 4.5% [4] - The U.S. economy is facing pressure from domestic interest groups, including retailers and manufacturers, which has prompted the government to reconsider its tariff strategy [3][4] Group 3: China's Response and Negotiation Dynamics - China has denied any ongoing negotiations with the U.S., emphasizing that any claims of progress are unfounded [6] - The negotiation power appears to be in China's hands, as the U.S. struggles to find alternatives to Chinese goods in the short term [7][9] - Analysts predict that the U.S. may ultimately adopt a strategy of exemptions rather than complete tariff removal, given the complexities of the trade relationship [7][9] Group 4: Long-term Trade Strategy - The distinction between "counter tariffs" and "base tariffs" is crucial, as high counter tariffs are seen as temporary leverage rather than a sustainable policy [8][9] - The average tariff rate on Chinese goods is expected to stabilize around 60%, with most countries facing a 10% base tariff [9] - The U.S. is under pressure to reach a trade agreement before the 2026 midterm elections to mitigate potential economic downturns [10]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart and other major U.S. retailers have resumed importing goods from China, with the U.S. buyers agreeing to cover the 145% tariffs, indicating a potential shift in U.S. trade policy towards China [1][3][8] Group 1: Retail Industry Response - Major U.S. retailers, including Walmart, Home Depot, and Target, met with President Trump to discuss the impact of high tariffs on their supply chains, expressing concerns about potential inventory shortages and rising prices [1][3] - Following the meeting, these retailers quickly notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipments, suggesting confidence that tariffs would be significantly reduced in the near future [3][8] - The retailers' decision to absorb the tariff costs signals a strong belief that the Trump administration will lower tariffs, possibly to around 20% [8] Group 2: Economic and Political Context - The high tariffs have created significant challenges for the U.S. retail sector, leading to supply chain disruptions and increased consumer prices, which could negatively impact Trump's approval ratings ahead of the elections [4][7] - Trump's potential tariff adjustments are seen as a compromise to alleviate economic pressures while maintaining a tough stance on China, reflecting the complex interplay of economic and political factors [6][7] - The resumption of imports from China by U.S. retailers highlights the interdependence of the U.S. and Chinese economies, suggesting that while trade tensions may continue, both sides need to find a balance to avoid further economic fallout [10]

Macro Insights - The US capital market is experiencing negative feedback regarding tariff policies, prompting Trump to seek a preliminary reconciliation with China, although the proposed reduction of tariffs from 145% is insufficient and lacks sincerity [1] - Industrial production and profit margins are improving due to policies aimed at enhancing efficiency and boosting exports, but the second quarter may face challenges from US tariff implementations [2] - The political bureau meeting emphasized responding to external uncertainties with high-quality development, focusing on stabilizing the economy and expanding domestic markets [3] Fund Strategy - In Q1 2025, equity funds increased their positions, particularly in TMT, domestic consumption, and resource sectors, indicating a narrowing divergence in market views [4] Bond Market - A potential reduction in the 7D OMO rate from 1.5% to 1.3% could lead to further declines in bond yields, with the 10Y government bond yield possibly reaching 1.5% within the year [5] - The REITs market experienced a decline, with the weighted REITs index dropping to 134.51, reflecting a -1.13% return [6] Industry Research - The consumer electronics sector faces significant long-term uncertainties despite short-term tariff exemptions, with upcoming special tariffs expected to create further instability [9] - The automotive sector is focusing on smart technology, with the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show highlighting the industry's transformation and potential growth driven by new vehicle launches [9] - The power equipment export data shows a mixed performance, with inverter exports increasing by 5% year-on-year, while component and battery exports declined by 24% [10] - The electric vehicle market is witnessing trends towards high-capacity range extenders and commercial vehicle electrification, with companies like CATL leading technological advancements [11] - Google's Q1 2025 advertising revenue exceeded expectations, which may help alleviate market fears, while the company maintains a strong position in the AI sector [12] Company Research - Changsha Bank reported a 4.6% increase in revenue for 2024, with a stable non-performing loan ratio, indicating strong county-level business performance [18] - Common Prosperity Bank showed a 10% revenue growth in Q1 2024, with non-interest income contributing significantly to overall earnings [19] - China Pacific Insurance's NBV is expected to maintain positive growth due to enhanced channel contributions and product optimization [20] - Ping An Insurance continues to expand its strategic partnerships and product offerings, projecting steady growth in NBV [21] - Crystal Electric Materials reported a revenue increase of 10.44% in 2024, despite a significant net loss due to goodwill impairment [22] - Zhejiang Medicine's profitability is expected to improve significantly, with revised profit forecasts reflecting a strong market position in the vitamin sector [23] - The coal industry is expected to face price declines in 2025, but companies like China Shenhua are recommended for their stable earnings and high dividend yields [16] - The construction materials sector is under pressure, but companies like Mona Lisa are expected to recover due to their competitive advantages [30]

4月21日，美国三大零售巨头——沃尔玛（Walmart）、家得宝（Home Depot）和塔吉特（Target）的首 席执行官齐聚白宫，与特朗普举行了一场闭门会议。这场会议的核心议题是特朗普政府近期对中国商品 征收高达145%的关税政策对零售行业供应链的冲击。 【零售巨头行动：白宫会晤后迅速通知中国供应商】 然而，令人意外的是，仅仅几天后，这些零售巨头便迅速采取行动，向中国供应商发出通知，要求恢复 因月初关税战而暂停的货物运输，并明确表示关税将由美方买家承担。 这一举动引发了广泛关注。船运从中国到美国通常需要一个月的时间，这意味着这些零售商已经断定， 特朗普政府将在未来一个月内大幅降低对华关税。 否则，他们不可能贸然恢复发货，更不可能主动承诺承担高额关税成本。显然，这些零售巨头通过与特 朗普的直接对话，已捕捉到了关税政策即将调整的明确信号。 【供应链危机迫在眉睫：零售商的无奈与自救】 自4月初特朗普宣布对华商品征收三位数关税以来，美国零售行业陷入了前所未有的混乱。高关税不仅 导致供应链中断，还加剧了物价上涨的压力。 据知情人士透露，沃尔玛、塔吉特和家得宝的高管在白宫会议上警告特朗普，如果关税政策保持不变， 超 ...

截至2025年4月18日，公司债ETF最新报价105.5元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月18日，公司债ETF近半年累计上涨1.09%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手4.07%，成交5.39亿元。拉长时间看，截至4月18日，公司债ETF近1月日均成交15.89亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达132.60亿元。 资金流入方面，公司债ETF最新资金流入流出持平。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内有3日资金净流入，合计"吸金"1.28亿元，日均净流入达2555.72万元。 截至2025年4月18日 15:00，中证5-10年期国债活跃券指数(净价)(H21018)上涨0.01%。国债ETF5至10年(511020)多空胶着，最新报价117.24元。拉长时间看， 截至2025年4月18日，国债ETF5至10年近1月累计上涨1.16%。 流动性方面，国债ETF5至10年盘中换手9.6%，成交1.38亿元。拉长时间看，截至4月18日，国债ETF5至10年近1年日均成交3.07亿元。 上周，债市整体略有上行，超长利率债上行，超长信用利差走阔。 截至2025年4月18日 15:00，国开债券ETF(159651)上涨0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton prices are under pressure to decline due to factors such as domestic over - capacity in the industrial chain, limited consumption growth, tariff policy adjustments, potential increases in cotton production in Xinjiang and Brazil, and the impact of Sino - US trade frictions [1]. - PTA prices are under pressure to decline mainly because of poor terminal weaving orders, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [3]. - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate and decline due to low international crude oil prices, the impact of tariff policies on imports, and weak market sentiment [4]. - Short - fiber prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak raw material prices and declining terminal textile demand [5]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, affected by factors such as short - term tight trade flow in the international sugar market, Brazilian production and weather conditions, and domestic import data and sales progress [7]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly as apple出库 is good and inventory is low, but macro risks need to be monitored [7]. Summary by Variety Cotton - Domestic cotton supply and demand are basically sufficient but may be slightly tight. About 60% of the sales pressure of Xinjiang ginning factories has been released, and 40% remains unpriced. Resources are concentrated in a few major traders [1]. - The external market is relatively weak, with the CFTC fund holding a net short position and the industry holding a net long position [1]. - In the second quarter, the situation is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, cotton production in Xinjiang may increase by 10%, and the new - year cotton output may reach 720 - 750 million tons. Brazilian cotton production is also increasing, which is bearish for cotton prices [1]. - On April 16, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,252 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index was 20,520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [11]. PTA - As of April 16, the PTA spot price dropped to 4,270 yuan/ton. The terminal weaving situation is weak, and the downstream polyester demand is weak. The spot basis has strengthened slightly, and the market transaction is mediocre [10]. - The PTA capacity utilization rate remained at 76.41%, and the polyester industry capacity utilization rate was 91.31%, down 0.12% from the previous day. The PTA de - stocking continued [3]. - The decline is mainly due to poor terminal weaving orders. As of the beginning of this week, the comprehensive starting rate of domestic major weaving production bases was 56.57%, down 2.34% from last week [3]. Ethylene Glycol - International crude oil prices are low, and cost support is poor. The tariff policy affects imports, and the number of arrivals is expected to decrease. Although short - term polyester start - up is okay, market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to decline [4]. - China's ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 66.01%, up 0.31% month - on - month. The weekly output was 39.69 million tons, up 0.48% from last week [16]. Short - fiber - Raw material prices are weak, and terminal textile demand is expected to decline. The short - fiber market is difficult to have positive changes in the short term [5]. - As of the 10th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 15.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.26 million tons month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate average was 82.84%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month [14]. Sugar - In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but with the start of the Brazilian sugar - making season and the increase in the sugar - making ratio, the ICE sugar price is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. - Domestically, imports have decreased year - on - year, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the later stage, as consumption increases, the price may be boosted [7]. - In April , Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks were 632,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.37%. From January to March 2025, Ukraine's sugar imports were 230 tons, 37% of the same period in 2024, and exports were 152,620 tons, 72% of the same period in 2024 [15]. Apple - The overall apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. However, macro risks need to be monitored [7]. - As of April 9, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 3.9863 million tons, a decrease of 389,000 tons from last week, and the de - stocking was accelerating year - on - year [17]. Macroeconomic Information - In the first quarter, the GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.2% [11]. - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.094 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 12.4671 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [11]. - The US has increased tariffs on China, and China has stated its position on the tariff issue [11].