Group 1: Inflation Trends in 2025 - In 2025, the US CPI showed a "倒 N" shape trend with year-on-year rates of 2.7%, 2.4%, 2.9%, and 2.7% across the four quarters[1] - Core CPI year-on-year rates were 3.1%, 2.8%, 3.1%, and 2.6% for the same period[1] - The increase in CPI during Q2 and Q3 was primarily driven by core goods and energy, influenced by tariffs and base effects[1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Inflation in 2026 - The main risk for inflation in 2026 is additional fiscal stimulus rather than a precursor to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2] - Excluding tariff impacts (approximately 0.5%), CPI year-on-year is slightly above 2%[2] - The probability of food and energy inflation rebounding is low, with measures taken to lower food prices and oil prices remaining stable due to oversupply[2] Group 3: Employment and Economic Feedback - The inflation trend is largely dependent on the recovery of the job market, particularly in super core services and housing inflation[2] - If non-farm employment exceeds 100,000 per month, it may indicate an overheating job market, which could lead to inflationary pressures[2] Group 4: Political Influences on Fiscal Policy - The greatest inflationary risk stems from potential fiscal stimulus driven by midterm election pressures, particularly concerning the cost of living crisis[3] - Trump may propose additional fiscal measures, such as direct payments funded by tariff revenues, to gain voter support if current non-spending measures fail[3] - The timeline for potential fiscal stimulus is likely around mid-year, coinciding with the primary elections from March to September[3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe-haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Reaches a new high [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Pay attention to the upper pressure [2]. - Lead: The reduction in overseas inventories supports the price [2]. - Tin: Strong upward trend [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillates with a slight upward bias [2]. - Alumina: Ranges within a certain interval [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Oscillates and adjusts [2]. - Palladium: Follows with a slight retracement [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range oscillatory operation [2]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a night - session increase of 0.14%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a night - session increase of 4.14% [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 630 kg, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 2,255,181 troy ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The minimum margin ratio for margin trading on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was raised from 80% to 100. The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case again, and the Nasdaq maintained a 1% decline. The US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened, the PPI rebounded year - on - year, and the December existing - home sales were the strongest since 2023 [4][6][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,870 with a daily increase of 1.54%, and the night - session closing price was 103660 with a night - session decrease of 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 22,824 [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME copper inventory increased by 75 tons, and the LME copper premium strengthened, with an increase of 25.92 compared to the previous day [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, also including that global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040 driven by AI and defense. The 2026 copper premium proposed by Pan - Pacific Copper to Japanese domestic customers reached a record high of $330 per ton [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24475 with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the trading volume increased by 54828 [11]. - **Premium and Inventory**: The LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 21.55, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons [11]. - **News**: The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case, and the US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17385 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the trading volume increased by 6891 [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME lead inventory decreased by 3725 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased by 0.18 [14]. - **News**: Similar to the above, including US economic data and Fed officials' stances [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 413,170 with a daily increase of 8.92%, and the night - session closing price was 436,540 with a night - session increase of 9.18% [18]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 862 tons, and the LME tin (spot/three - month) premium increased by 22 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will suspend visas for 75 countries, the US November retail sales exceeded expectations, the yen reached an 18 - month low, and other news [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24595, and the trading volume decreased by 47846. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2800, and the trading volume decreased by 273575. For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 23380, and the trading volume decreased by 8122 [21]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the LME aluminum premium was 22.09 [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: Fed officials' stances on interest rates, and other news [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum has a trend intensity of 0, and palladium has a trend intensity of 0 [25]. - **Related News**: US economic data, Iran situation, US Supreme Court's non - ruling on Trump tariffs, Trump's chip tariff policy, and other news [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,940, and the trading volume decreased by 206,996. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,925, and the trading volume decreased by 71,570 [28]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses, China implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and other news [28][29][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current global macro - economy is in a pattern of stagflation pressure, institutional disputes, and geopolitical tensions. Overseas, the large - scale liquidity released during the crisis response stage has led to a stagflation situation. The Fed's interest - rate decisions have been involved in political games, and the Trump tariff issue has increased global trade uncertainties. Geopolitical tensions may also disrupt cross - border trade. Domestically, China's exports showed strong resilience in 2025, and the export situation in 2026 may be optimistic [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to appreciate before the Spring Festival. The appreciation is supported by the acceleration of China's foreign trade recovery, but its rhythm will be affected by the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [4]. - The stock index market may experience a short - term adjustment due to the regulatory action of raising the minimum margin ratio for margin trading, but the upward trend is expected to resume after the adjustment [5]. - The possibility of a short - term reserve requirement ratio cut has decreased for treasury bonds. The bond market's short - term upward space is limited [6][7]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Traders can consider short - selling on rallies [11]. - For new energy commodities, lithium carbonate futures are expected to enter a high - level volatile state, and industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are affected by factors such as export tax rebates and inventory [13][16]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in a high - level consolidation state, and aluminum prices may be volatile at a high level in the short term, while other non - ferrous metals also have different trends and investment suggestions [17][22]. - For oilseeds and fats, the external soybean market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have different supply and demand situations. The palm oil market may experience a short - term correction [28][30]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil may experience a rebound due to supply disruptions, and low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure. Asphalt prices may be relatively strong in the short term [31][36]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term callback risks, while gold and silver are in a pattern of being prone to rise and difficult to fall [37][43]. - In the chemical market, the pulp and offset paper markets are relatively stable, and LPG, PTA - PX, and other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [46][55]. - In the black market, steel products are in a bottom - oscillating state supported by raw materials, and iron ore, coking coal, coke, and ferroalloys also have their own market characteristics [64][68]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, cotton prices may have short - term callback risks, sugar prices are under pressure in an oscillating state, and apples, dates, and logs have different market trends [69][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in 2025. The country's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In December, exports of rare earths increased by 32% year - on - year. Overseas, there are issues such as the Fed's interest - rate decision disputes, the Trump tariff case, and geopolitical tensions [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB is expected to appreciate before the Spring Festival. China's foreign trade recovery in December was significant, with exports in US dollars increasing by 6.6% year - on - year and imports increasing by 5.7%. The US dollar index is in a high - level volatile state, and the RMB's appreciation is also affected by the central bank's regulation [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The regulatory action of raising the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% aims to cool down the over - heated market. The short - term market may fluctuate, but the upward trend is expected to resume [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts are less likely. The bond market's short - term upward space is limited due to the stock market's upward trend [6][7]. - **Container Shipping for European Routes**: The market is in a weak and volatile state. Spot freight rates are declining, and there are both negative and positive factors. Traders can consider short - selling on rallies [9][11]. 3.2 New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price has significantly corrected. The spot market is in a "not - off - season" state, but the futures price may enter a high - level volatile state. Short - term investors are advised to realize profits and wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices [13]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The prices are in a wide - range volatile state. The demand for photovoltaic exports may drive short - term demand, but polysilicon inventory is high. In the medium term, polysilicon prices may decline, while industrial silicon has support at low prices [16]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot premium has increased, but the transaction is stagnant. The futures price is in a high - level consolidation state. It is not recommended to open new positions above 100,000 yuan, and enterprises can consider constructing option strategies [17][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price may be volatile at a high level in the short term due to factors such as the Trump tariff and the cancellation of the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products. In the medium and long term, the price is expected to rise [22]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, lead, etc. have their own market characteristics, such as zinc being in a strong and volatile state, and tin having upward momentum [23][26]. 3.4 Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have different supply and demand situations. The soybean meal market may be strong in the near term and weak in the far term, and the rapeseed meal market is in a state of weak supply and demand [28][29]. - **Fats**: The palm oil market may experience a short - term correction due to the Indonesian government's decision not to implement B50 this year. The soybean oil and rapeseed oil markets are affected by factors such as supply and policy [30]. 3.5 Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil may experience a rebound due to supply disruptions caused by US sanctions. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to improved supply [31][33]. - **Asphalt**: The price may be relatively strong in the short term due to factors such as the winter - storage policy and geopolitical tensions. The market is in a state of limited upward and downward space [34][36]. 3.6 Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, index parameter adjustments, and the Fed's monetary policy. There may be short - term callback risks, but the long - term bullish foundation remains [37][40]. - **Gold and Silver**: The price of silver is rising rapidly, and the gold - silver ratio has fallen below 50. The precious metals market is in a pattern of being prone to rise and difficult to fall, but short - term fluctuations may increase [41][43]. 3.7 Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The market is relatively stable, and the current situation is slightly bearish. It is advisable to wait and see and avoid chasing short positions [46]. - **LPG**: The price is supported by geopolitical factors, but the increase in PDH maintenance has a negative impact on the market. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [48]. - **PTA - PX**: The demand feedback is intensifying, and the short - term upward momentum is weakening. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026, but the PTA processing fee increase space is limited [48][51]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand feedback is negative, and the supply - demand situation is under pressure. The price may be affected by macro factors, and it is advisable to wait and see [51][53]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is relieved in the short term due to increased device maintenance. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of device maintenance plans [54][55]. - **PE**: The spot price is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the long term, and the demand may decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene market is in an oversupply situation and follows the cost - end fluctuations. The styrene market is strong due to factors such as exports and macro - news, and attention should be paid to export increments and supply returns [57][58]. - **Urea**: The price may rise in the first half of 2026 due to the agricultural demand peak season, but there may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to hold long positions [59][60]. - **Soda Ash - Glass - Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and the price is restricted by high - level inventory. Glass has high - level inventory in the middle - stream, and the spot pressure exists. Caustic soda is in a state of weak reality, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state [60][62]. - **Propylene**: The price may rise due to cost factors and device maintenance. Attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts on the cost - end and PDH device changes [62][63]. 3.8 Black - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar demand is seasonally weak, and the supply of steel products is increasing. The prices of steel products are in a bottom - oscillating state supported by raw materials [64][65]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has declined. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to support continuous large - scale production increases. It is not recommended to chase long positions at the current position [65][66]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading has improved, and the basis has strengthened. The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [66][67]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply pressure is high, but the prices are supported by the cost - end. Silicon iron is starting to accumulate inventory, and silicon manganese has a large inventory base [67][68]. 3.9 Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The price is in a high - level consolidation state. There may be short - term callback risks due to factors such as the squeeze on domestic cotton consumption by imported yarn. The callback amplitude may be limited [69][70]. - **Sugar**: The price is under pressure in an oscillating state. Short - term prices are strongly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the trend of raw sugar [70][72]. - **Apple**: The price is rising strongly. The market has a problem of shortage of delivery products, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation [73][74]. - **Date**: The price is oscillating at a low level. The domestic supply is abundant, and the price may be under pressure in the long term [74][75]. - **Log**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the short - term bottom is confirmed. The price may have a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to spot price changes and post - holiday demand [75][77].

每经编辑｜陈柯名 美东时间周三，美股三大指数连续第二个交易日下跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.09%报49149.63点，纳指跌1%报23471.75点，标普500指数跌0.53%报6926.6 点。 | 股市行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球 | A服 | 港股 | | 美股 | | 纳斯达克 | 道琼斯 | | 标普500 | | | 23471.75 | 49149.63 | | 6926.60 | | | -238.12 -1.00% | -42.36 -0.09% | | -37.14 -0.53% | | | 涨3547 | | | | 跌2301 | 盘面上，大型科技股普跌，谷歌A跌0.04%，苹果跌0.42%，英伟达跌1.44%，特斯拉跌1.79%，微软跌2.4%，亚马逊跌2.45%，Meta跌2.47%。 银行股全线走低，富国银行跌逾4%，花旗、美国银行跌超3%，摩根士丹利跌逾1%，摩根大通跌近1%，高盛跌0.58%。 航空股普跌，波音跌0.81%，美国航空、达美航空、西南航空跌超1%，美联航跌逾3%。 芯片股涨跌不一，博通跌超4%，A ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. In December, exports and imports increased significantly. In 2025, imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil reached record highs, while coal imports decreased significantly, and rare - earth exports reached a record high [8]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the game between industrial and secondary market funds, with the margin depending on the guidance of the Indonesian government's statements [9][10]. - Tin prices have room to rise, but attention should be paid to the profit - taking pressure near the integer level of 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Foreign Trade - In December, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The export amount in December exceeded 350 billion US dollars, reaching a record high. In 2025, soybean imports reached 112 million tons, iron ore imports reached 1.26 billion tons, and crude oil imports reached 578 million tons, all hitting record highs and increasing for three consecutive years. Coal imports decreased by 9.6%, the largest decline in a decade. In December, rare - earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year, and the annual export volume reached 62,585 tons, the highest in at least 11 years [8]. Nickel - The reality fundamentals of nickel are weak, with over - supply pressure and the expected commissioning of low - cost wet - process projects. However, the main trading anchor of the market is the Indonesian nickel ore policy, and the attention of the secondary market to commodities has significantly increased, with sufficient commodity capital liquidity. - In the industrial perspective, there is a wait - and - see attitude towards the quota policy. In the secondary market perspective, there is a long - term view of buying on dips, focusing on the end of the "dividend" cycle of low - price ore attracting smelting investment and possible policy changes in the future. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to consider using options in trading and pay attention to structural opportunities [9][10]. Tin - Tin prices have been rising recently. The fundamentals of tight supply, relatively dry domestic tin ore and tin ingot inventories, and the price - insensitivity of downstream demand support the rise. The landslide in the core tin - mining area in the Congo (Kinshasa) may have also contributed to the rise. It is believed that tin prices still have room to rise, but attention should be paid to profit - taking pressure near 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Other Commodities - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment is rising [15]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high [15]. - **Copper**: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [15][22]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [15][25]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [15][28]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly [15][35]. - **Alumina**: Oscillating within a range [15][35]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [15][35]. - **Platinum**: Oscillating and adjusting [15][38]. - **Palladium**: Following a slight decline [15][38]. - **Stainless steel**: The price of ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is betting on the Indonesian policy [15][43]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Oscillating at a high level, paying attention to the resumption of production of overseas mines [15][48]. - **Industrial silicon**: Downstream production cuts lead to weakening demand [15][51]. - **Polysilicon**: In a bottom - oscillating state [15][52]. - **Iron ore**: The valuation is high, and caution is needed when chasing up [15][55]. - **Rebar**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - **Coke**: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - **Coking coal**: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - **Steam coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is adjusting narrowly in the short - term [15][69]. - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][71]. - **Para - xylene**: The cost support is strong [15][75]. - **PTA**: The polyester production cut plan is increasing, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength [15][75]. - **MEG**: The downside space of the valuation is limited [15][75]. - **Rubber**: Oscillating widely [15][83]. - **Synthetic rubber**: The center is moving up [15][87]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and the futures and spot markets continue to resonate [15][90]. - **PP**: The downstream rush for exports supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is strong [15][92]. - **Caustic soda**: Oscillating weakly [15][95]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating [15][100]. - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet is stable [15][105]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support [15][109]. - **Urea**: Oscillating upward in the medium - term [15][114]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating in the short - term [15][118]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [15][122]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [15][127]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [15][128]. - **PVC**: Oscillating weakly [15][136]. - **Fuel oil**: Rising significantly, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term [15][139]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Mainly following the rise, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market has slightly narrowed [15][139]. - **Container shipping index (European line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; operating weakly [15][141]. - **Staple fiber**: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in TA and a short position in PF [15][157]. - **Bottle chips**: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in the near - term contract and a short position in the far - term contract [15][157]. - **Offset printing paper**: Hold short positions [15][160]. - **Pure benzene**: Oscillating mainly in the short - term [15][165]. - **Palm oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to shrink [15][168]. - **Soybean oil**: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [15][168]. - **Soybean meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [15][172]. - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating [15][172]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price [15][175]. - **Sugar**: Mainly operating weakly [15][179]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [15][183]. - **Egg**: The spot market is profitable, and the sentiment in the far - term contracts is weakening [15][189]. - **Live pig**: The demand expectation is priced in advance [15][192]. - **Peanut**: Oscillating [15][196].

Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity in most regions of the U.S. has recently grown, with employment conditions remaining stable, but inflationary pressures have not fully dissipated [1][2] - Economic activity has accelerated at a "slight to moderate" pace since mid-November 2025, with 8 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts reporting growth, 3 reporting no change, and 1 reporting a moderate decline [4] - The improvement in economic activity is characterized by significant "unevenness," with regions dependent on consumption and services benefiting from a slight rebound in consumer spending [5][6] Employment Conditions - The employment market shows a "mixed" result, with 8 out of 12 districts reporting stable employment levels and near stagnation in job growth, indicating a lack of growth momentum [11][12] - Employment conditions vary significantly by industry, with stable employment in healthcare and education, while manufacturing and retail sectors face challenges due to tariffs and economic cycles [13][14] - Wage growth is described as "moderate," with reports indicating that wage increases have returned to "normal" levels [15] Price Pressures - Most Federal Reserve districts report moderate price increases, with only 2 districts noting slight price rises, driven by ongoing cost pressures from tariffs [16] - Companies are beginning to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers, although some sectors, like retail and dining, are hesitant to do so due to price sensitivity [16] - Energy and insurance sectors continue to significantly impact profit margins, with expectations of some price relief in the future, but prices are anticipated to remain high due to rising costs [17] Regional Highlights - Boston: Economic activity shows slight improvement, with consumer spending increasing, particularly in high-end goods and services [18] - New York: Economic activity continues to decline slightly, with a decrease in employment and moderate wage growth [19] - Philadelphia: Economic activity has shown signs of recovery, with slight improvements in employment levels [19] - Chicago: Economic activity remains unchanged, with slight increases in consumer spending and construction demand [20] - Dallas: Economic activity remains stable, with growth in the banking sector and cautious outlook due to inflation concerns [20]

Core Insights - The U.S. tariff policy is exacerbating domestic economic pressures, leading to declining consumer confidence and increased inflation [3][4][6] - A recent survey indicates that the consumer confidence index for December 2025 is at 53.3, significantly down from 74 in December 2024, reflecting growing concerns over economic stability [3][4] - The holiday shopping season saw a 26% average price increase for popular gifts compared to the previous year, with specific categories like home goods and electronics experiencing even higher price hikes [3][5] Consumer Impact - Many American families are feeling the financial strain from tariff policies, leading to reduced purchasing power during the holiday season [4][5] - A survey revealed that 87% of respondents believe grocery prices have risen, and about two-thirds reported increased expenses for utilities and holiday gifts [4][6] - Approximately 40% of families have cut back on the number of gifts purchased, and nearly one-third have reduced the number of gift recipients due to rising costs [5][6] Tariff Effects on Pricing - The majority of tariff costs (70.5%) are being passed on to consumers, with retailers absorbing the remaining 29.5% [6] - Retailers are incorporating tariff costs into product pricing, leading to higher expenses for consumers [6][7] - The analysis indicates that from March to September 2025, imported goods prices rose by about 4%, while domestic goods saw a 2% increase due to tariffs [6][7] Broader Economic Implications - The ongoing tariff policy is expected to suppress overall demand in the U.S., with a forecast of continued pressure on trade volumes and slowing household consumption growth [7] - The OECD has reported that the value of imported goods subject to tariffs has significantly decreased compared to non-tariffed imports, indicating a broader economic impact [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US economic data shows a continued slowdown, with concerns about the Fed's independence increasing. Key events such as the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs, US CPI data, new Fed chair nomination, and Q4 GDP data should be closely monitored [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve moderately, with a focus on the investment side. Policies are being implemented, and the central bank is increasing liquidity through a 300 - billion - yuan net injection of 6 - month repos [7]. - Asset views: Recommend long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold on a monthly basis. Treat silver as a short - term standard allocation and consider overweighting it after volatility stabilizes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary 3.1.1 Index Futures and Related Financial Instruments - Stock index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4740 with a daily decline of 0.44%, SSE 50 futures at 3114 with a daily decline of 0.57%, CSI 500 futures at 8197.8 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and CSI 1000 futures at 8156 with a daily increase of 0.09% [2]. - Bond futures: 2 - year bond futures closed at 102.334 with no daily change, 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily increase of 0.04%, 10 - year at 107.93 with a daily increase of 0.07%, and 30 - year at 111.27 with a daily decline of 0.03% [2]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 99.1842 with a daily increase of 0.29%, and the US dollar mid - price was 6.9777 with a 46 - pip increase [2]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5668% with a 1.94 - bp increase, the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.8494% with a 0.25 - bp decrease, and the 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.18% with a 1 - bp decrease [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Indexes - Computer, comprehensive finance, and media industries showed significant monthly increases of 17.81%, 6.64%, and 25.84% respectively, while banking and real estate industries had monthly decreases of 2.68% and 2.91% respectively [4]. 3.1.3 Domestic Commodities - Precious metals: Gold had a daily increase of 1.29% and a monthly increase of 6.51%, silver had a daily increase of 1.53% and a monthly increase of 2.54% [5]. - Energy and chemicals: Fuel oil had a daily increase of 5.1%, low - sulfur fuel oil had a daily increase of 6.15%, and crude oil had a daily increase of 0.38% [5]. - Non - ferrous metals: Stainless steel had a daily increase of 0.93%, tin had a daily increase of 8.84% [5]. 3.1.4 Overseas Commodities - Crude oil: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 61.1 with a daily increase of 2.69%, and ICE Brent crude oil was at 65.46 with a daily increase of 2.49% [6]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold was at 4594.4 with a daily decline of 0.44%, and COMEX silver was at 86.86 with a daily increase of 2.08% [6]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans were at 1039 with a daily decline of 0.95%, and CBOT corn was at 420.25 with a daily decline of 0.3% [6]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Views 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upward, awaiting incremental funds. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate, with long - end sentiment remaining weak [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Both gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upward, influenced by factors such as US fundamentals, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with attention on 2026 shipping company resumption plans, year - end long - term contract freight rates, and pre - Spring Festival cargo volume [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products, iron ore, and other related products are expected to fluctuate, with attention on factors such as special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron ore production and transportation [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper, aluminum, tin, and other non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each metal, such as supply disruptions and policy changes [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with geopolitical factors and raw material prices being important influencing factors. Asphalt is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Some agricultural products such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to fluctuate upward, while sugar is expected to fluctuate downward [11].

【资讯导读】 转自：新华财经 •美国对特定半导体加征25%关税 •美国11月PPI超预期上涨 能源成本推高通胀 •日元跌至18个月新低 日本财相警告干预可能 •韩国央行拟引导银行回流外汇储备 稳定汇率预期 【市场资讯】 •美国白宫宣布，自1月15日起对部分进口半导体、半导体制造设备及相关衍生品加征25%的从价关税， 旨在强化本土科技产业链安全。 •美联储最新褐皮书显示，12个辖区中有8个报告经济小幅至温和增长，较此前明显改善；消费者支出受 益于假日购物季，普遍呈现温和上升。 •美国总统特朗普表示，美国贸易逆差已降至2009年以来最低水平，且持续收窄；同时预测2026年GDP 增速将超过5%。 •美国联邦最高法院再次推迟就特朗普政府关税措施是否合宪作出裁决，全球市场需至少等到下周才能 获知该政策最终命运。 •费城联邦储备银行行长保尔森表示，若通胀持续降温且就业市场稳定，美联储可能在2026年晚些时候 进一步降息；票委卡什卡利则主张本月维持利率不变。 •明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长卡什卡利表示，当前无1月降息动力，并指出特朗普对美联储的施压涉 及货币政策核心，主席鲍威尔已作出"准确"回应。 •里士满联邦储备银行行 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the establishment of the "China IC Unicorn Alliance," which aims to foster collaboration and innovation within the integrated circuit industry [3] - It emphasizes the importance of partnerships and cooperation among companies in the semiconductor sector to enhance competitiveness and drive growth [3] Group 2 - The article encourages readers to engage with the content and share insights, highlighting the role of community in advancing industry knowledge [5] - It provides a call to action for business cooperation, indicating opportunities for collaboration within the industry [5]