Industry Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean has strong support at the bottom due to ongoing trade negotiations between various countries and the US, with many countries expected to purchase US agricultural products. The planting area of new-season US soybeans has decreased significantly, and weather conditions will have a greater impact on the market in the future. [6] - In the domestic soybean meal market, the spot and futures markets deviated last week. The shortage and price increase in North and Northeast China spread across the country, but the spot market has cooled down recently. The high basis indicates that the market expects the future spot shortage to ease significantly. After May, a large amount of soybeans will arrive at ports and clear customs, which is reflected in the supply increase on the futures market. [6] - Contracts 09, 11, and 01 have relatively more potential positive factors, including the increase in import costs after the Brazilian selling pressure eases, the US weather window, and tariff issues. However, investors may need to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter. [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market review**: The prices of soybean meal contracts 2505, 2507, and 2509 all declined. The trading volume of contract 2509 was the largest, and its position decreased. The US soybean 05 contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1055 cents. After the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, US soybeans rebounded and then entered a narrow range. [6] - **Operation suggestions**: Contracts 09 and subsequent ones have relatively more potential positive factors, but investors need to withstand the supply pressure in the second quarter. [6] 2. Industry News - As of the week ending April 27, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 18%, higher than the market expectation of 17%, and higher than the previous week's 8%, last year's 17%, and the five-year average of 12%. [7] 3. Data Overview - As of April 26, the harvesting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 94.8%, higher than last week's 92.5%, last year's 90.5%, and the five-year average of 93.5%. [18] - In the first four weeks of April, Brazil exported 12,954,887.78 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 762,052.22 tons, a 14% increase compared to the average daily export volume in April last year. The total export volume in April last year was 14,687,842.09 tons. [18]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 4 月 28 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 1 一、行情回顾与操作建议 每日报告 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - South Korea is urgently seeking a trade agreement with the U.S. before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension on July 8, to avoid potential trade impacts from the Trump administration [1] - South Korean officials are focusing on four main categories in discussions: tariffs and non-tariff measures, economic security, investment cooperation, and monetary policy [1][2] - The South Korean government emphasizes the need for a "reciprocal" solution to address tariff concerns and proposes specific measures to support U.S. shipbuilding and enhance energy security [2] Group 2 - South Korea's key export industries, particularly steel and aluminum, face a 25% tariff on exports to the U.S., while the automotive sector also encounters similar additional tax burdens [3] - Major South Korean automotive brands, Hyundai and Kia, rank among the top eight best-selling brands in the U.S. market, highlighting the significance of these tariffs on their performance [3] - Political uncertainty due to upcoming elections in South Korea may affect the timeline and outcomes of trade negotiations with the U.S., as a new government will be established after the June 3 elections [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Cost side: Affected by Trump's tariff exemption news, risk assets in the macro - level have stabilized temporarily, but related negotiations are at a stalemate, and market sentiment is cautious. The fundamentals of crude oil have limited marginal changes, with overall expectations slightly improved and support still existing [6]. - Supply side: Last week, the PTA capacity utilization rate decreased. Over the weekend, PTA plants such as Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua restarted. Without new maintenance plans, the PTA operating rate is expected to rise this week [8]. - Production profit: Last week, the PTA production profit declined. Before the macro - pessimistic sentiment eases and there are no obvious positive signs on the demand side, the PTA production profit is unlikely to recover significantly [8]. - Inventory: Last week, the total PTA inventory continued to decline, but the available days of in - factory inventory increased. The raw material inventory of downstream polyester and the warehouse receipt inventory both decreased [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester operating rate remained high, but the average available days of inventory increased, and the average production profit decreased [8]. - Overall logic: The cost - side support from crude oil remains. In terms of PTA supply and demand, supply decreased and demand remained high last week. The fundamentals are good, and the total inventory is continuously decreasing, but the pessimistic sentiment caused by tariffs has led to a decline in PTA processing fees. In the later stage, if there is no new maintenance for the restarted PTA plants last week, the operating rate will rise this week. Although the polyester on the demand side is at a seasonal high in operating rate, under the pressure of high inventory, insufficient orders, and compressed profits, the high operating rate is difficult to maintain in the long term. If the PTA operating rate continues to increase, supply and demand may turn weak. However, considering the cost - side support, the short - term PTA price is expected to fluctuate. The view is to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the short - term PTA price, with the reference range for the main contract being 4200 - 4500 [6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - PTA futures price: Last week, the PTA price fluctuated narrowly and rose, with the highest price reaching 4398 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4218 yuan/ton [15]. - PTA futures trading volume and open interest: Last week, the PTA futures trading volume decreased from 2.1226 million lots to 1.3233 million lots, and the open interest increased from 1.5443 million lots to 1.6102 million lots [20]. Supply - PTA weekly operating rate: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased from 77.99% to 76.74%, and the output decreased from 1.3617 million tons to 1.3385 million tons [28]. - PTA restart and maintenance plans: Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua plants restarted over the weekend. Without new maintenance, the operating rate is expected to increase this week. There are also multiple plants with maintenance and restart schedules, such as Hainan Yisheng, Sichuan Energy Investment, etc. [32]. Profit - PTA processing fee: Last week, the PTA spot processing fee decreased from 393.4 yuan/ton to 322.89 yuan/ton, and the average disk processing fee decreased from 392.63 yuan/ton to 338.43 yuan/ton [38]. Inventory - PTA total inventory: The PTA total inventory continued to decline, from 2.7843 million tons to 2.5549 million tons. The available days of in - factory inventory increased from 4.32 days to 4.36 days, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories decreased from 760,600 tons to 701,200 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 810,900 tons to 695,100 tons [47]. Demand - Polyester operating rate and output: Last week, the polyester capacity utilization rate decreased from 91.31% to 91.09%, and the output increased from 1.5506 million tons to 1.5588 million tons [53]. - Polyester inventory and production profit: The average polyester inventory increased from 15.56 days to 16.16 days, and the average production profit decreased from 53.02 yuan/ton to - 8.02 yuan/ton [60].

作者 | 弗雷迪 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 本周，当外围关税突然传来缓和声浪， A 股却在九连涨之后收住了势头。 今天下午两点，指数突然跳水，打破了市场一天的平静。 为何突然变脸？ 风不平，浪不静 01 截至， 上证指数收跌 0.07% ，创业板指涨 0.59% ，市场成交额再破万亿。 板块方面，电力板块尾盘发力，湖南发展等多股涨停；钛白粉板块走高，天原股份逼近涨停；旅游酒店板块震荡上行，三峡旅游、天府文旅双双 涨停； CPO 、云计算、 AI 医疗板块涨幅居前。另一方面，贵金属板块回落，西部黄金领跌；乳业股走低，贝因美尾盘跌停；跨境支付、创新 药、宠物经济、猪肉股跌幅居前。 昨天下午一份 "豁免清单"在网上流传，文件内提到部分科技产品的 125% 对等关税暂时取消，包括集成电路 ( 年进口量 87 亿，不含存储 芯片 ) 、血液类制品 (67 亿 ) 、半导体制造设备 (42 亿 ) 、医疗类闪烁扫描装置 (35 亿 ) 、乙烯聚合物 (26 亿 ) 半导体相关的特定检测仪 器 (19 亿 ) 等产品，合计豁免总额接近 450 亿左右，占到从美国进口总额的 30% 。 ...

Core Insights - ResMed Inc reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.37, slightly above the consensus estimate of $2.36 [1] - Quarterly sales rose 8% year-over-year to $1.29 billion, matching estimates, with a 9% increase on a constant currency basis [1] - Gross margin improved by 140 basis points to 59.3%, driven by manufacturing efficiencies and favorable product mix [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted operating income increased by 13% to $444.6 million [2] - Adjusted net income rose by 11% to $348.5 million [2] - Revenue in the U.S., Canada, and Latin America, excluding Residential Care Software, grew by 9% [3] - Revenue in Europe, Asia, and other markets, excluding Residential Care Software, increased by 8% on a constant currency basis [3] Product and Market Insights - Increased demand for sleep devices and growth in the Residential Care Software business contributed to sales growth [1] - Residential Care Software revenue grew by 10% on a constant currency basis, indicating continued organic growth [3] Regulatory and Analyst Commentary - Management confirmed that ResMed's products are exempt from tariffs under the Nairobi Protocol, which was approved in 2009 [2][4] - Analyst reactions include an 11% increase in ResMed stock price, with various price target adjustments from different firms [3][4]

对这些不同税率的任何豁免或"分层处理"都将受到汽车业高管的欢迎。特别是即将对汽车零部件征收的 关税，让行业官员担心复合成本。 本周，代表美国汽车行业的六个主要政策团体一反常态地联合起来，游说特朗普政府不要征收汽车零部 件征收关税。特朗普表示愿意重新考虑政府对进口汽车零部件征收25%的关税，类似于最近批准的对消 费电子产品和半导体的关税减免。"这些组织在给特朗普官员的信中说，这将是一个积极的进展，令人 欣慰。 代表特许经销商、供应商和几乎所有主要汽车制造商的这些团体表示，即将征收的关税可能危及美国的 汽车生产，并指出许多汽车供应商已经"陷入困境"，无法承受额外的成本上涨，从而导致更广泛的行业 问题。 例如，通用汽车首席执行官Mary Barra周三表示，为了更好地竞争，通用汽车需要明确和一致的监管规 定，这也呼应了其他高管的担忧。Barra解释称："首先，我需要明确，然后我需要一致性。为了进行这 些投资，并成为我们所有者资本的好管家，我需要了解政策是什么。" 智通财经APP获悉，白宫周三证实，美国总统特朗普正在考虑豁免汽车制造商的部分最严厉关税。此 外，还有媒体报道称，特朗普打算豁免汽车零部件的部分关税，其中包 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that it may be a relatively suitable time to "bottom fish" in the Hong Kong stock market if investors have low positions and costs [2][17]. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in a state of waiting and anxiety, with liquidity shock risks decreasing in the short term, but attention should be paid to changes in interbank, bill, currency, and credit market liquidity [1][2]. - The government may increase counter-cyclical adjustment efforts after the release of Q1 economic data to address uncertainties from trade frictions [1][4]. - Tariff exemptions may last longer, potentially solidifying at a 10% tariff, which could drag down U.S. economic growth by about 1 percentage point [1][5]. - The U.S. tax reduction policy is progressing rapidly, which could offset some negative impacts of tariffs if passed [11][12]. - The technology hardware industry is significantly affected by tariffs, and the results of trade negotiations will impact exports and supply chains [1][4][40]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The U.S., A-share, and Hong Kong markets are currently experiencing a waiting and anxious state, with market volatility decreasing [2][10]. - The VIX index and U.S. Treasury market volatility have decreased, aiding in avoiding liquidity shocks in the short term [2]. Economic Policy Outlook - The government is expected to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments in response to Q1 economic data, focusing on stabilizing growth and preventing risks [4][15]. - The macro policy direction will revolve around stabilizing growth and preventing risks to ensure smooth economic operation [4]. Tariff Impacts - Tariff exemptions may persist, potentially leading to a 10% tariff that could reduce U.S. growth by approximately 1 percentage point [5]. - The effective tax rate will decrease due to exemptions and high tariffs, significantly impacting U.S. economic growth [5][6]. Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that if investors have low positions and costs, it may be a suitable time to increase holdings in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in dividend and technology sectors [2][17][18]. - The technology hardware sector is under significant pressure from tariffs, but long-term opportunities may arise from domestic substitution and self-sufficiency [40][46]. Currency and Asset Performance - The recent weakness of the U.S. dollar has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with a recommendation for a dollar-cost averaging strategy [1][13]. - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is currently at a relatively reasonable valuation, suggesting potential for bottom fishing if risks do not escalate [10][9].

日本首相石破茂发表关税战爆发以来最强硬的表态，直面特朗普带来的日益增长的贸易压力。 据媒体报道，石破茂周一在日本议会表示："如果日本放弃一切，我们将无法确保我们的国家利益。"这 是自特朗普政府对日本敏感的汽车和农业领域发起贸易战以来，石破茂发表的最具对抗性言论之一。据 环球时报，石破茂上周表态称，在与美国政府举行的关税谈判中，日本"不打算做出重大让步，也不会 急于达成协议"。 在议会上，石破茂特别强调了保护日本农业的重要性："我们一直在使用各种方法保护日本农业，如关 税和最低准入规则。我们必须继续保护它，当然，我们也必须保护消费者安全。" 分析认为，尽管表态强硬，日本实际上需要寻找讨价还价的筹码，以期获得美国对其关税的全面豁免。 早些时候，美国将部分"对等关税"暂缓了90天实施，但日本仍面临25%的汽车、钢铁和铝材出口关税。 赤泽亮正在谈判中要求美方按照优先顺序列出其谈判重点，以便日方评估让步空间。不过，美方对日本 的具体要求仍然模糊，但特朗普经常抱怨日本市场缺乏美国汽车。 另据报道，日本财务大臣加藤胜信将于本周访问华盛顿，届时他可能在G20财长会议和IMF-世行春季会 议期间与美国财长贝森特举行双边会谈。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the volatility in the consumer electronics sector, indicating that the market is experiencing high openings followed by declines, suggesting a lack of clean chips in the sector [2] - The example of Luxshare Precision is provided, noting that it only faced two limit-downs despite being a leader in the Apple supply chain, indicating resilience amidst market fluctuations [3] - There is a significant amount of capital waiting for a good opportunity to either take profits or cut losses, particularly in light of the recent tariff exemption news [5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of stimulating domestic demand, especially as the bond market remains strong despite stock market fluctuations [7] - It suggests that upcoming monetary policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, are likely to occur soon, which could signal a shift in market focus towards domestic consumption [9] - The consumption ETF 510150 is highlighted as a balanced investment option, incorporating essential and discretionary consumer sectors, which has shown resilience since the market bottom in January [11] Group 3 - The consumption ETF 510150 has demonstrated a gradual upward trend, indicating that there is a market pricing in the potential for stimulating domestic demand [14] - The article notes that despite recent market downturns due to tariffs, there has been a recovery, suggesting that the market is adjusting to the new tariff landscape [16] - It is anticipated that as key economic meetings approach, more capital will flow into the consumer sector, leading to outperformance compared to the broader market [18] Group 4 - The article concludes that the market's focus will shift from external factors, such as tariffs, back to domestic responses, particularly the need for stimulus measures to support domestic demand [20] - It is expected that various measures to stimulate domestic demand will be introduced following the economic meeting in April, presenting opportunities for excess returns in the market [20]