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“反内卷”下的价格分化
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-01 05:41
Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In July, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, breaking the consecutive increase seen in Q2[5] - The decline in PMI is attributed to two main factors: the end of the overseas order recovery phase and disruptions caused by extreme weather[5] - The production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, with significant impacts on industries like non-metallic mineral products and chemical raw materials due to extreme weather events[5] Group 2: Price Dynamics in Manufacturing - The price indicators in manufacturing showed improvement, with the main raw material purchase price index rising to 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, marking increases of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively from June[10] - Despite the rise in purchase prices, factory prices are contracting, indicating a widening gap that may weaken overall manufacturing profits in the short term[11] - The basic raw materials sector is the only one among four major categories to see an increase in PMI, with its purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52%[11] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to near the threshold line, with both construction and service sectors contributing to this decline[16] - The construction sector's PMI dropped to 50.6%, the largest decline since January, primarily due to extreme weather and ongoing real estate weaknesses[16] - In the non-manufacturing sector, a divergence in price trends was observed, with service sector prices declining while construction input and sales prices increased significantly[19] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and the implementation of policies is not meeting expectations, posing risks to economic stability[22]
印度7月制造业PMI终值 59.1,预期59.2,前值59.2。
news flash· 2025-08-01 05:04
印度7月制造业PMI终值 59.1,预期59.2,前值59.2。 ...
印度7月制造业PMI终值 59.1,初值 59.2。
news flash· 2025-08-01 05:03
印度7月制造业PMI终值 59.1,初值 59.2。 ...
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250801
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:28
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 宝城期货股指期货早报(2025 年 8 月 1 日) 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种:IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:上涨 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 参考观点:上涨 核心逻辑:昨日各股指均震荡下跌。沪深 ...
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-08-01 01:50
中国7月标普全球制造业PMI录得49.5,预期50.4,前值50.4。(财新7月起终止对标普中国PMI的冠名)标普全球市场:中国制造业自2023年10月后第二次录得产量下降,调查企业反映新订单增速放缓,厂商相应减产。厂商反映外需疲软,新出口订单已连续4个月收缩,且较6月加剧。https://t.co/4eWCWIpcNz https://t.co/2px2vIDPvj外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国7月官方制造业PMI为49.3,预期49.7,前值49.7;非制造业PMI为50.1,预期50.3,前值50.5;综合PMI为50.2,前值50.7。 https://t.co/nHn2KnFYUy ...
关税阴霾笼罩,日韩制造业PMI双双萎缩
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-01 01:47
日本和韩国7月制造业活动双双陷入萎缩,凸显美国关税政策对地区经济的冲击正在加剧。 8月1日,据最新公布的数据显示,日本7月制造业PMI从6月的50.1降至48.9,重新跌破荣枯线。韩国制 造业PMI则从6月的48.7进一步下滑至48.0,连续第六个月处于收缩区间。 此外,日韩两国制造业均面临需求疲软和产出下滑的双重压力。分析称,最新数据反映出关税不确定性 对亚洲制造业供应链的持续冲击。两国PMI数据收集时间均在上周美日、美韩贸易协议宣布之前。 分析师指出,尽管美日和美韩贸易协议将关税从威胁的25%降至15%,但制造商信心恢复仍需时间。市 场关注焦点转向贸易协议能否在未来几个月内转化为客户信心提升和销售改善。 日本制造业重回收缩区间 数据显示,日本7月制造业PMI从6月的50.1跌至48.9,结束了短暂的稳定期。 产出分项指数重新陷入收缩,且收缩幅度为3月以来最大。企业普遍报告因新业务量减少而削减生产。 新订单在7月再次萎缩,尽管收缩速度较6月略有放缓。 尽管产出和订单下滑,制造商在7月继续增加员工,但就业增长速度降至三个月低点。价格方面,投入 成本通胀降至四年半来最低水平,而产出价格则以一年来最快速度上涨,反 ...
中国7月标普全球制造业PMI 49.5,前值50.4
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-01 01:47
风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 中国7月标普全球制造业PMI 49.5,前值50.4。 ...
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250801
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 01:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock - bullish", and the overall view is "shock" due to the weakening of the manufacturing PMI in July [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "shock - bullish", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "shock". It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "shock", and the intraday view is "shock - bullish". The core logic is the weakening of the 7 - month manufacturing PMI [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The 7 - month Politburo meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, leading to an increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts. After continuous corrections since July, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate, causing Treasury bond futures to bottom out and rebound. The 7 - month manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics is 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and insufficient effective domestic demand. The weak performance of the manufacturing PMI increases the expectation of future monetary easing, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures [5].
光大证券晨会速递-20250801
EBSCN· 2025-08-01 01:08
Macro Research - The manufacturing PMI index fell unexpectedly to 49.3% in July, indicating a slowdown in production activities and a contraction in demand index, highlighting supply-demand imbalances [1] - In the second quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy showed signs of weakness despite a rebound in consumer spending, with a consumer confidence index remaining low and private investment declining at an annualized rate of -15.6% [2] Bond Market - As of the end of Q2 2025, active bond funds saw an increase in performance, with leverage and duration rising compared to the previous quarter, indicating a comprehensive increase in various types of bonds [3] - The divergence between bond and bill market interest rates is attributed to both funding and credit attributes, with bill rates declining in response to increased bank credit [4] Industry Research - The European offshore wind sector is experiencing a positive trend due to improved policies, reduced project costs, and strategic positioning, with new installations expected to reach 2.6GW in 2024 and 11.8GW by 2030 [5] - The phosphate chemical industry is facing low operating rates for ammonium phosphate, with leading companies benefiting from upstream resource acquisitions, while those lacking such integration may face profitability pressures [8] Company Research - Jilin Chemical Fiber is expected to see a decline in profitability in its carbon fiber segment, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026, while maintaining a positive outlook for its transition to carbon fiber products [10] - Su Shi Testing reported a revenue increase of 8.09% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a strong performance in Q2, and is expected to benefit from recovering downstream demand and new growth from emerging industries [11] - Baidu Group is facing pressure on its advertising business due to competitive dynamics and AI transformation impacts, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [12] - Qualcomm's FY25Q3 results met expectations, with continued growth in automotive and IoT business segments, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [13]
韩国7月汇丰制造业PMI为48,前值48.7
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-01 00:40
Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that South Korea's HSBC Manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 48, a decrease from the previous value of 48.7 [1]