★美联储 -- ①洛根：应专注于实现2%的通胀目标，而不是试图弥补过去的通胀不足;2博斯蒂克：仍然认 为今年可能会有一次降息。 ★经合组织将2025年美国GDP预期下调至1.6%（之前为2.2%），将2026年的预期从1.6%调低至1.5%。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 | Milli | > 国投期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月04日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属延续震荡。美国公布4月JOL ...

铝类产业日报 2025/6/4 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,07 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed up, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chips. The market is facing uncertainties due to overseas trade issues and domestic economic conditions. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line. The index is oscillating near the gap before the market's sharp decline on April 3rd, facing significant upward pressure. The market is in a policy vacuum period, lacking a clear short - term main line and expected to maintain an oscillating trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - All main and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed upward trends. For example, the IF main contract (2506) rose to 3842.4, up 15.6. The spreads between different contracts also changed, with most showing an upward trend. The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts mostly decreased. For instance, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 73.0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF and IC decreased, while that of IH increased. The net position of IM decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 29,186.00, down 347.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. The basis of the corresponding main contracts also changed, with most showing an upward trend. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 3868.74, up 16.7, and the IF main contract basis was - 26.3, up 0.9 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume, margin trading balance, and north - bound trading volume all increased. The proportion of rising stocks increased, while the Shibor decreased. Option prices and implied volatilities also changed. For example, A - share trading volume reached 11,774.13 billion yuan, up 135.83 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares, technical, and capital aspects showed upward trends. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. New export and import order indices increased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US will raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31 [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - Important economic data and events to watch include the US May ADP employment number on June 4 at 20:15, the Canadian central bank's interest rate decision on June 4 at 21:45, etc [3].

中国香港5月标普全球制造业PMI 49，前值48.3。 ...

①09:30 澳大利亚第一季度GDP数据 ②15:50 法国5月服务业PMI终值 ③15:55 德国5月服务业PMI终值 ④16:00 欧元区5月服务业PMI终值 ⑤16:30 英国5月服务业PMI终值 ⑥20:15 美国5月ADP就业人数 ⑦20:30 美联储博斯蒂克出席活动 ⑧21:45 美国5月标普全球服务业PMI终值 ⑨21:45 加拿大央行公布利率决议 ⑩22:00 美国5月ISM非制造业PMI ⑪22:30 美国至5月30日当周EIA原油库存 ⑫次日02:00 美联储公布经济状况褐皮书 周二（6月4日）重点关注财经事件和经济数据 ...

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行 6 月 3 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 4545 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 4545 亿元，中标量 4545 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 8300 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净回笼 3755 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场周二资金面均衡偏松，主要回购加权利率均有下行，存款类机构隔夜加权利率来到 1.40% 关口附近；非银机构以信用债为抵押融入隔夜 报价也小幅回落到 1.55% 左右。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | | 1Y | 2Y | ЗУ | 54 | 7Y | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | 1.4625 0.75 | 42 1.4800 2.00 | 60 1.4875 0.75 | 60 1.5450 1.00 | 88 1.6300 1.00 | 219 1.6770 0.20 | 613 | | | 25附 ...

8. 美联储-洛根：应专注于实现2%的通胀目标，而不是试图弥补过去的通胀不足、博斯蒂克：仍然认为 今年可能会有一次降息。 2. 王毅会见美国新任驻华大使庞德伟。 3. 油价上调，加满一箱油将多花2.5元。 4. 商务部等五部门组织开展2025年新能源汽车下乡活动。 5. 王文涛在法国分别会见澳大利亚贸易部长和欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员。 6. 李强日前签署国务院令，公布《政务数据共享条例》，自2025年8月1日起施行。 7. 全国工商联汽车经销商商会倡议：坚决抵制以"价格战"为主要形式的"内卷式"竞争行为。 国内新闻： 国际新闻： 1. 关税-①特朗普政府上调钢铝关税至50%，4日起效 ②消息人士：美国在关税谈判中向越南提出了一 份"又长又苛刻"的要求清单 ③消息人士：欧盟未收到美国要求提供 "最佳贸易报价"的信件 ④巴西总 统：若未能与美就关税达成协议，将诉诸世贸组织，或采取对等措施 ⑤印度-欧盟自贸协定加速推进 近 半议题已达成共识。 2. 荷兰首相宣布将递交辞呈。 金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（6月4日） 1. 白宫称中美领导人本周将举行会谈，外交部：没有可以提供的消息。 8. 5月财新中国制造 ...

今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年6月4日 周三 ① 00:45 美联储古尔斯比参与一场问答活动 ② 01:00 美联储理事库克就经济前景发表讲话 ③ 04:30 美国至5月30日当周API原油库存 ④ 09:30 澳大利亚第一季度GDP年率 ⑤ 12:00 美国总统特朗普上调进口钢铁关税 ⑥ 15:50 法国5月服务业PMI终值 ⑦ 15:55 德国5月服务业PMI终值 ⑧ 16:00 欧元区5月服务业PMI终值 ⑨ 16:30 英国5月服务业PMI终值 ⑩ 20:15 美国5月ADP就业人数 ⑪ 20:30 美联储博斯蒂克、库克出席活动 ⑫ 21:45 美国5月标普全球服务业PMI终值 ⑬ 21:45 加拿大央行公布利率决议 ⑭ 22:00 美国5月ISM非制造业PMI ⑮ 22:30 美国至5月30日当周EIA原油库存 ⑯ 22:30 美国至5月30日当周EIA库欣原油库存 ⑰ 22:30 美国至5月30日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 ⑱ 次日02:00 美联储公布经济状况褐皮书 相关链接 ...

每经记者｜郑步春 每经编辑｜赵云 端午小长假后首个交易日，A股低开，但随后表现不错，各大股指均录得些许涨幅。截至收盘，上证综 指涨0.43%至3361.98点；深综指涨0.48%，创业板综指涨0.85%，科创50指数涨0.48%，北证50指数涨 1.03%。全A总成交额为11638亿元，与上周五的11643亿元大致持平。 周一美元大跌的诱因主要有三个： 一是特朗普政府又开始在关税相关政策方面胡搅蛮缠，多数市场人士相信美国这是"自损"，故美元承 压。 二是美国新公布的ISM制造业PMI数据大幅不及预期，加重市场对美国经济增长放缓的担忧。 三是摩根士丹利大举唱空美元，其预测美元会在一年内贬9%。 周二上午公布的财新5月份中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为48.3，弱于4月的50.4，也弱于预期的 50.7。该数据明显与上周末公布的官方数据背离，因官方5月PMI由4月的49.0上升至49.5。其对A股的压 制也不明显，部分投资者反而对经济刺激政策加码的预期有所抬升。 预计中短期内，A股大体上仍将延续横盘震荡态势，如果短期内中美在贸易或关税等领域的谈判有大消 息，则不排除短期内波动有所加大的可能。操作方面，建议投资 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Macro - aspect: Internationally, the US May ISM manufacturing index was 48.5, with manufacturing activity contracting for the fourth consecutive month, and sales - cost inflation reaching the highest level since late 2022. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points. The economic recovery foundation needs to be consolidated, and policies are expected to be further strengthened [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and smelter profits have been further repaired. However, a zinc smelter in South China has extended its maintenance, and the import window is closed. On the demand side, it is at the end of the peak season, and downstream demand may shrink, but low zinc prices have led to increased bargain - hunting purchases, and inventories are decreasing. - Technical aspect: There is an increase in positions and a decline in price, with a strong bearish atmosphere. Zinc prices are expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation. It is recommended to wait and observe, focusing on the range of 21,800 - 22,300 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was 240 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,693 dollars/ton, up 63.5 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc was 238,690 lots, up 12,016 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 1,909 lots, up 1,365 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 1,675 tons, unchanged. - The SHFE inventory was 42,310 tons, down 1,763 tons; the LME inventory was 138,150 tons, down 1,000 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,790 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,440 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract was 610 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 26.08 dollars/ton, down 2.65 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 16,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production was 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production was 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory was 56,800 tons, down 2,200 tons. - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The new housing construction area was 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the housing completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters. - The automobile production was 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc was 15.94%, up 0.76 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc was 15.94%, up 0.76 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 12.27%, up 0.62 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 16.87%, up 0.02 percentage points [3]. 3.7行业消息 - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. - The sales volume of consumer goods trade - in has exceeded 1 trillion yuan. As of May 31, 5 major categories of consumer goods trade - in have driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with about 175 million subsidies issued. - The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November 2024. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value was 52, with an initial value of 52.3. - Fed's Daly said she is still comfortable with the Fed's March forecast, which shows two rate cuts by the end of the year. She hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive policy rate for now [3].