据报道，古尔斯比周三表示："我理解市场快速处理信息是其商业模式，但这不符合我对央行运作方式 的理解。" 这位芝加哥联储主席强调，美国就业市场仍比7月劳动力市场数据显示的更为强劲。他还指出，通胀数 据中的一些细节引发了担忧，表明美联储抑制价格压力的努力可能不再处于"黄金路径"。 鹰派声音来了！美联储票委最新警告：不要在通胀受控前"仓促"降息，给市场对9月降息的强烈预期"泼 下一盆冷水"。 8月13日，据媒体报道，芝加哥联储主席、2025年FOMC票委古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）发出鹰派警 告，敦促美联储不要在通胀完全受控前"仓促"降息。 古尔斯比称，美联储可能面临将通胀推回2%目标的"困难时期"。他强调央行不应像市场那样快速处理 信息，暗示需要更加谨慎的政策路径。 分析人士称，这一表态显示美联储内部对降息时机存在分歧，与特朗普政府官员的激进降息呼声形成鲜 明对比。 据见闻文章提及，美国财政部长贝森特早些时候建议美联储在9月中旬会议上将基准利率下调50个基 点。另外，上周六，美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话，支持今年降息三次并敦促央行在9月会议上启动降息。 鹰派票委发声：不要仓促 市场此前已完全消化9月降息2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated a high likelihood of a significant 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September due to recent weak employment data [1][2][4] Group 1: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - Recent revisions to employment data show that job growth in May, June, and July has nearly stagnated, contrasting sharply with previous reports [4] - The market's expectation for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve has approached nearly 100% following the latest inflation data showing a mild increase [2] Group 2: Policy Recommendations and Political Context - Mnuchin suggested that the Federal Reserve should lower rates by 150 to 175 basis points, aligning with the Trump administration's criticism of the Fed's previous rate decisions [1][5] - The proposed rate cut would reduce the current rate from the 4.25% to 4.5% range to approximately 3%, which is considered a "neutral" level that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth [5] Group 3: Inflation and Future Outlook - Despite calls for rate cuts, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious, stating that the fight against inflation is not yet won, as price increases still exceed target levels [6] - Some policymakers are beginning to accept the idea of ignoring price fluctuations related to tariffs, focusing instead on the potential rise in unemployment [6]

当地时间周三，美国财政部长贝森特表示，鉴于近期就业数据疲软，美联储9月份有可能会大幅降息50个基点。 贝森特在当天接受采访时说："如果我们在5月或6月看到这些修正后的非农数据，我怀疑美联储可能已经在6月和7月降息了。这告诉我们，9月份降息50个基 点的可能性非常高。" 他还表示："利率目前限制性过强……美联储应该将利率降低150到175个基点。"他进一步呼应了特朗普政府对美联储的公开批评和详细政策建议，尽管美联 储坚称货币政策只会基于经济数据，而非政府施压。 然而，越来越多的美联储政策制定者开始接受忽略关税相关价格波动的观点。他们认为，就业数据的修正使他们更加关注失业率上升的可能性，一些降息倡 导者则认为，美联储需要提前采取行动。 在最新数据显示美国7月通胀温和上升，以及贝森特发表上述评论之后，市场对美联储9月降息的预期已接近100%。 美联储理事鲍曼上周表示："采取积极措施将政策从目前的适度紧缩立场向中性水平靠拢，将有助于避免劳动力市场出现不必要的恶化，并减少如果劳动力 市场进一步恶化，委员会需要实施更大规模政策调整的可能性。" 贝森特呼吁降息之际，特朗普政府正在寻找美联储主席鲍威尔的替代人选，目前潜在候选 ...

Group 1: China Macroeconomic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index indicates a slight slowdown in China's economic recovery, but overall remains stable[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index has dipped into contraction territory, reflecting limited declines in consumer confidence and market vitality[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index remains close to expansion territory, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments driven by policy[1] Group 2: Trade Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total import and export value increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a growth acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half[2] - High-tech product imports and exports grew by 8.4%, contributing 45.4% to the total trade growth[2] - Exports of "new three types" products rose by 14.9%, indicating a shift towards high-end and green products[2] Group 3: Global Economic Context - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, significantly below the expected 104,000[6] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations but higher than the previous 4.1%[6] - The EU announced a six-month suspension of tariffs on U.S. goods to maintain transatlantic relations, following an agreement with the U.S.[6]

Core Points - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations and breaching the 100,000 threshold, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][4] - Despite the disappointing job growth, the unemployment rate remained at approximately 4.2%, which is puzzling given the job losses [1][4] - The release of the employment data led to a sharp decline in the stock market, with the Dow and S&P indices dropping nearly 2% and Nasdaq falling over 2.6% [4][8] - The credibility of the official employment data has been called into question due to the significant downward revisions, which undermines public trust in the data [4][8] - The political implications of the employment data are significant, as it reflects the ongoing power struggle and political maneuvering within the U.S. government, particularly in an election year [7][8] Group 1 - The July employment data was disappointing, with only 73,000 new jobs added, and prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, raising questions about the relationship between job growth and unemployment [1][4] - The stock market reacted negatively to the employment data, with major indices experiencing significant declines [4][8] Group 2 - The substantial revisions to employment data have led to skepticism regarding its accuracy and reliability [4][8] - The political context surrounding the employment data suggests it is being used as a tool for political gain, particularly by the Trump administration [7][8] - The situation highlights the intersection of economic data and political strategy, especially in the lead-up to elections [7][8]

Group 1 - President Trump dismissed Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre due to dissatisfaction with employment data, accusing her of manipulating data for political purposes [1] - Trump's approach to employment data has been inconsistent; he praises favorable data while criticizing unfavorable data, indicating a double standard [1] - Recent employment data showed a significant drop in job creation, with July 2024 adding only 114,000 jobs, which was 35% below expectations [3] Group 2 - In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Trump criticized employment reports, claiming that the Biden administration was responsible for poor job growth and high unemployment [4][5] - Trump highlighted that approximately 220,000 individuals exited the labor market in September and October 2024, attributing this to a lack of job opportunities [5] - Following a strong employment report in March 2025, where 228,000 jobs were added, Trump praised the data, framing it as evidence of a robust labor market [6] Group 3 - In June 2025, Trump linked positive employment data to stock market gains and significant tariff revenues, indicating a connection between economic performance and his administration's policies [7] - The employment data for May 2025 was initially reported as 139,000 jobs added but was later revised down to 125,000 and then significantly to 19,000, showcasing volatility in employment statistics [7] - Following disappointing employment figures in July 2025, Trump ordered the dismissal of McEntyre, claiming the data was fabricated to benefit the Biden administration [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday, indicating a correction from previous declines, but investors should remain cautious about weak demand impacting the market [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Price Movement - Copper prices on LME and COMEX are stabilizing, with LME prices unlikely to exceed COMEX prices in the short term [1] - The recent decline in COMEX copper has led to an oversold condition, which may slightly boost valuations in the other two copper markets [1] Demand Factors - Three bullish factors include: 1. Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries 2. Employment data causing a decline in the US dollar index 3. Clear support levels for copper prices [1] - Three bearish factors include: 1. Fluctuations in tariff policies 2. Tariff policies leading to a decrease in global demand 3. Adjustments in US copper tariff policies resulting in extremely high COMEX inventories [1]

全球市场周一开盘陷入了寂静，A股、美元、黄金几乎都没怎么波动。这有点出入预料——既没有因为 降息预期升温而上涨，也没有因为上周五的大跌而恐慌。 · 一方面，下次发布非农数据市场还会不会相信？如果不信任，那么波动将加剧。特朗普解雇了劳工统 计局局长，并称数据受到操纵。 · 另一方面，市场上很多人还没意识到"二次伤害"正在逼近。9月美国劳工部还要发布2025年3月的"基准 修正"初步估计。根据高盛的预测，可能会再砍掉 55-95万人。换句话说，接下来可能还要再平均"月 减"4.5万到8万人。如果属实，将是2010年以来最大的一次下修。这不仅是修正过去，也是重新定义当 前的"真实就业水平"。 安静背后，并非是因为缺少催化剂，而是"怀疑气氛持续加重"。 第一，初步答案将交给今晚，届时看美股的表现，如果其能够止跌，那么市场将迅速忘记当前的痛苦。 第二，美元的走势也是备受关注的，如果其能够收涨，证明非农数据不过是"一日行情"——焦点将迅速 转向下周的通胀数据，以及下个月的非农数据。 第三，上周五的非农就业报告发布，可能令就业数据上升到了与通胀数据同样重要的程度。不过，现实 的一个问题是——美国就业数据失去了信任——4月和 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the U.S. is moving forward with a new round of tariffs on multiple countries, which has implications for trade relations and market stability [1][2][3] - U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer stated that the new tariffs, including 35% on Canadian goods, 50% on Brazilian goods, 25% on Indian goods, and 39% on Swiss goods, are "basically set" and will not be adjusted during current negotiations [2][3] - President Trump criticized the former Labor Statistics Bureau chief, Erica McEntyre, for allegedly inflating employment data before the election and subsequently revising it down by nearly 1 million jobs, which he termed a "scam" [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, as evidenced by the July unemployment rate rising and non-farm payrolls underperforming market expectations [4] - The Labor Department's recent data revision for May and June, which significantly lowered previously reported job numbers, has led to strong dissatisfaction from the Trump administration, resulting in the dismissal of McEntyre [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak non - farm data in the US strengthens the drive for interest rate cuts. With Trump's pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and significantly lower - than - expected employment data, it is certain that the Fed will implement further accommodative monetary policies. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of SHFE gold being 773 - 801 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of SHFE silver being 8885 - 9287 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Market Review**: Affected by the hawkish stance of the Fed's July FOMC meeting, precious metal prices were weak this week. By the close of Friday's daytime session, SHFE gold fell 0.85% to 770.72 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver fell 5.05% to 8918.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 2.32% to 3416.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.18% to 37.11 US dollars/ounce [11][29]. - **Fed's FOMC Meeting Impact**: Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance on monetary policy at the FOMC meeting pressured gold and silver prices. However, Governors Bowman and Waller voted against and advocated for interest rate cuts. Their statements indicated a clear divergence within the Fed on monetary policy. Additionally, the potential resignation of Governor Kugler gives Trump the opportunity to appoint a Fed governor who aligns with his views, shaking the foundation of Powell's independent and hawkish monetary policy [11]. - **Non - farm Data Impact**: The ADP employment data and GDP data released on Wednesday showed resilience. But the non - farm payroll data released on Friday was significantly weaker than expected, reversing the market's previous view of the US economy's resilience. After the release of the non - farm data, the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent accommodative monetary policy rebounded sharply. The probability that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September FOMC meeting rose to 80.3%, and it is also expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [11]. 3.2. Market Review - **Price Performance**: Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, precious metal prices were weak. SHFE gold fell 0.85% to 770.72 yuan/gram, SHFE silver fell 5.05% to 8918.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold rose 2.32% to 3416.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.18% to 37.11 US dollars/ounce [11][29]. - **Position Performance**: The domestic gold position was stronger than the overseas one. SHFE gold's position increased slightly by 2.93% to 431,600 lots, while COMEX gold's position as of the latest reporting period fell 9.02% to 445,300 lots. Both domestic and overseas silver positions were weak. SHFE silver's total position fell 8.57% to 786,000 lots this week, and COMEX silver's total position as of the latest reporting period fell 1.93% to 170,300 lots [31][34]. - **Managed Fund Net Position**: As of the latest reporting period on July 29, the net positions of COMEX gold and silver managed funds both declined. COMEX gold's managed fund net position decreased by 25,700 lots to 134,300 lots, and COMEX silver's managed fund net position decreased by 990 lots to 43,000 lots [36]. - **ETF Position**: As of August 1, the total position of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope was 2167.6 tons, and the total position of overseas silver ETFs was 27,381 tons [39]. 3.3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yield Curve**: The report presents the spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries and the yields of short - term US Treasuries [50][51]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The report shows the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal and real interest rates, and inflation expectations [53][54]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: This week, the balance of the Treasury General Account on the Fed's liability side replenished 8.59 billion US dollars, and the scale of deposit reserves decreased to 3.29 trillion US dollars [56][59]. 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI & PCE**: In June, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.4%. The month - on - month was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.1%. The core CPI year - on - year was 2.9%, lower than the expected 3%, and the month - on - month was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [64]. - **Employment Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 26 was 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000 [67]. - **PMI & PPI**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, below the boom - bust line, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49 [70]. - **New Home Data**: In June, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the US was 1.321 million, higher than the expected 1.3 million and the previous value of 1.263 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.397 million, higher than the expected 1.39 million and the previous value of 1.394 million [73]. 3.5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report shows the basis of gold TD - SHFE gold [76]. - **Silver Basis**: The report shows the basis of silver TD - SHFE silver [78]. - **Domestic - Overseas Spreads of Gold and Silver**: The report presents the domestic - overseas spreads of gold and silver [81]. 3.6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventory**: The report shows the silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [88][91][92]. - **Gold Inventory**: The report shows the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [94].