Group 1: Gold Price Surge - The gold price has surged approximately 19% in Q1 2024, a rare historical increase, with prices reaching over $3,500 per ounce in Q2 [1] - As of April 18, 2024, the total assets of gold-themed ETFs reached 145.1 billion yuan, more than doubling from the end of 2023 [1] - The influx of funds into gold ETFs has exceeded 51 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, driven by factors such as U.S. tariffs and a weakening dollar [1] Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - In 2024, global central bank gold purchases reached 1,044.6 tons, a 5% increase from 2023, with Q1 purchases totaling 289 tons [2] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 73.7 million ounces (approximately 2,292.33 tons) as of March 2024, marking a historical high [2] Group 3: Gold ETFs Performance - Gold ETFs have generally seen gains exceeding 30% since the beginning of the year, with performance slightly outpacing that of physical gold [4] - The 华夏 Gold ETF has the lowest management and custody fees in its category, which can significantly reduce investment costs over the long term [5] - The 华夏 Gold ETF has ranked second in excess returns among similar products in 2024, demonstrating strong performance while controlling investment costs [6] Group 4: Gold Mining Stocks ETFs - Gold mining stocks ETFs, such as 黄金股 ETF, focus on companies whose profits are highly sensitive to gold price fluctuations, providing significant upside potential [7] - The 黄金股 ETF has seen a cumulative increase of 38.5% in 2024, outperforming many gold ETFs [7][8] - The supply-demand dynamics in the gold market support the investment value of gold mining stocks ETFs, with global gold mine production growth slowing and investment demand increasing [9] Group 5: Economic Context and Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,300 to $3,700 per ounce, with potential peaks reaching $4,500 under extreme conditions [12] - The current trading volume in gold futures has reached record levels, indicating heightened market activity [13] - Gold is viewed as a hedge against economic downturns, with historical data showing it often provides excess returns during periods of economic decline [14] Group 6: Investment Strategies - A "core + satellite" investment strategy is recommended, combining the 华夏 Gold ETF for stability and the 黄金股 ETF for growth potential [15][16] - This strategy aims to balance the low elasticity of direct gold investments with the higher volatility of stock investments, providing a comprehensive approach to gold market exposure [16]

欧洲央行首席经济学家Lane：自夏季以来，贸易政策的不确定性一直备受关注。 有理由对经济保持长期乐观。 由于欧元和能源的存在，抗通胀的力量在那里。 欧洲经济正在增长，展现出韧性。 尽管存在贸易负面因素，经济应会保持增长。 美国是我们的贸易伙伴，但不是唯一的贸易伙伴。 ...

澳大利亚联邦银行矿业和能源大宗商品研究主管Vivek Dhar表示，这与美国总统特朗普执政下美国贸易 政策的巨大转变有关，黄金已"填补空白"，成为市场首选的避险资产。 Dhar补充说："近期这种涌向避险资产需求的独特之处在于，美元和美国国债的避险吸引力下降，导致 它们遭到抛售。" 黄金价格持续创下新高，周二触及每盎司3500美元，更多分析师预测金价将进一步上涨。摩根大通预计 这种贵金属将在2026年第二季度达到4000美元，并在2025年第四季度达到平均每盎司3675美元。 近期的贸易动荡推动投资者涌向避险资产，黄金价格因此一路飙升，而作为竞争性资产的美国国债和美 元则出现下跌。 相反，最近几周美国国债出现抛售，30年期国债收益率本月早些时候触及2023年11月以来的最高水平。 同时，美元指数一直在下跌，LSEG数据显示，今年迄今已累计下跌8%。 尽管今年迄今30年期美债收益率仅上涨约2个基点，但特朗普宣布对等关税后一周内，该收益率飙升超 过30个基点——基准的10年期美债收益率也飙升了30个基点。同时，LSEG数据显示，今年迄今现货黄 金价格已上涨25%。 尽管长期美国国债收益率已从本月早些时候触及的高点回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Warren Buffett's long-standing skepticism towards gold as an investment, emphasizing its lack of productive capacity and practical utility compared to income-generating assets like stocks and bonds [3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Value of Gold - Buffett's view underestimates gold's role as a "super-sovereign reserve" and its institutional demand, as evidenced by central banks purchasing 1,045 tons of gold in 2024, with China's reserves reaching 2,292.33 tons by March 2025 [5]. - The systemic impact of de-dollarization is underestimated, with U.S. government debt reaching $36.1 trillion (120% of GDP) and the dollar index declining by 8.53% since 2025, leading to concerns about the dollar's status as a reserve currency [5]. Group 2: Fear-Driven Investment - The article argues that fear has transformed into a long-term risk hedge, with sovereign funds and insurance companies incorporating gold into their portfolios due to structural uncertainties like geopolitical conflicts and financial market vulnerabilities [7]. - Data shows that gold prices increased by 25% during the Fed's interest rate hike cycle in 2024, and by 26.7% in early 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, indicating institutional demand rather than mere speculative behavior [7][10]. Group 3: Repricing of Risk Assets - The article highlights that gold's pricing logic as a "anti-fragile asset" is often overlooked, as its value increases when dollar credit is shaken, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of institutional allocation [9][14]. - The scarcity of gold, with central banks purchasing 1,045 tons in 2024, represents 28% of that year's mine production, providing long-term price support beyond traditional supply-demand dynamics [14]. Group 4: Non-Productive Assets in Modern Portfolios - The article critiques Buffett's assumption that asset value must derive from productivity, arguing that gold's low correlation with equities makes it an essential tool for risk diversification in modern investment portfolios [15]. - In 2025, gold's weekly correlation with the S&P 500 was -0.03, indicating its effectiveness in hedging against stock and bond volatility, especially during market downturns [15]. Group 5: Inflation Hedge and Monetary Economics - The article asserts that gold's anti-inflation properties are often ignored, as it serves as a hedge against currency devaluation, with a limited supply growth of only 1.5% annually [17]. - Historical data shows that during the high inflation period of the 1970s, gold prices surged by 1,781%, significantly outperforming stocks and bonds, underscoring its unique value during currency depreciation [17]. Group 6: Divergence in Investment Frameworks - The article concludes that Buffett's critique of gold stems from an industrial-era investment framework, while gold's current valuation is rooted in monetary economics, especially in a post-Bretton Woods context where trust in credit systems is eroding [17]. - Gold's core value has evolved from a commodity to a stabilizer of the monetary system, necessitating a reevaluation of its strategic importance in modern financial ecosystems [17].

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： KYXI 来源：雪球 巴菲特1998年曾有一段非常知名的表述 ， 他说 ： " 黄金从非洲和其他地方的地底下挖出来 。 之后人们将 其熔化成型 、 打孔 ， 然后又放到地底下的金库里 ， 还要花钱找人在金库四周保护 。 黄金没有任何用途 。 要是金星人看到地球人这么看重黄金 ， 想破头也想不明白 " 。 " 你可以把所有开采出来的黄金放在一起 ， 它们可以填满一个长宽高都为67英尺的立方空间 。 按照当前 的黄金价格计算 （ 当时黄金已到每盎司1350美元上方 ） ， 和这些黄金价值相当的钱可以让你买下全部美 国耕地 ， 不是部分 ， 而是全部 。 此外 ， 你可以买下10家埃克森美孚 。 然后你还有1万亿美元的闲钱 。 或者 ， 你可以拥有一个巨大的金属立方体 。 你会选择哪种做法 ？ 哪种做法能产生更多价值 ？ " 此后的多次股东大会上 ， 他也曾明确表达过 远离黄金 的建议 。 因为在他看来 ， 黄金没有生产能力 ， 不能用已有的黄金生出更多的黄金 ； 黄金的实际用途不多 ， 只在工业和珠宝饰品领 ...

以下文章来源于力的期权工作室 ，作者余力 Felix 力的期权工作室 . 对个人更通俗，对机构更专业，努力做最具品质的衍生品公众号~ 文 | 余力 Felix 来源 | 力的期权工作室 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 这个星期，相比于A股，我想另一个资产应该引起了更大的关注， 它就是年内涨幅一度快到30%的资产——黄 金。 隔岸的大嘴，原本想"make America great again"，最后搞成了"make Au great again"。尤其是前几天，每天 两三个点的涨幅，确实是简直了…… 然而，这个世界总是被反者道之动的规律所支配。任何一个风险资产的表现不会永远顺滑的，也没有一个风险 资产会只涨不跌的。偶然中蕴含着必然，尽管今天黄金的大跌与trump的态度缓和有很大关系，但其次这一次 大跌，也恰恰是发生一系列指标进入极值以后…… 图：当日沪金指数的分时走势 数据来源：Wind 最近的黄金有多疯狂呢？我们一起来跟踪两组数据。 首先，国际金价的乖离率又一次进入了历史极值区域。 所谓乖离率，指的是一个资产价格相对某根均线的偏离 程度，对于前天收盘的国际金价，它相对于20天均线的乖离率已经达到了2 ...

天空才是尽头，黄金价格已经无敌了。投行们也都在喊加仓，高盛甚至将目标价喊出4500美元/盎司的极端价格， 特朗普也来凑热闹，发出"拥有黄金者制定规则"的逆天言论。 智通财经APP了解到，黄金现货价格按月持续飙升，3月突破3100美元/盎司，4月再度突破3400美元/盎司，按年呈 现加速上涨的态势，2023、2024以及2025年至今涨幅分别为13.7%、26.4%及32.9%。而受金价上涨影响，黄金板块 标的今年获得了大幅的市值溢价，其中港股赤峰黄金（06693）年内涨幅高达1.4倍。 其实黄金价格一直处于上升的趋势，以黄金作为非货币后长达超半个世纪周期看，黄金价格穿越了时间周期，而空 间高度则不断刷新高。 那么黄金为何能一直涨？ 从时间节点看，1971年为重要的分界线，美国关闭黄金兑换窗口，黄金非货币化，而布雷顿森林体系解体，黄金的 储备及投资价值飙升，此外参与者从国家到社会多样化也驱动了黄金投资的繁荣，其三大属性，包括抗通胀、避险 以及央行储备属性不断被放大，推动价格从37.44美元/盎司涨至如今的3500美元盎司。 | 特征/时期 | 黄金非货币化前(1971 年以前) | 黄金非货币化后(1971年以 ...

黄金将疯狂演绎到了极致，与此同时股汇债三杀终结了十余年美元资产牛市。 高盛、中金等机构预计2025年底金价可能达到3100美元/盎司，而一些更为乐观的预测认为可能会达到4042美元/盎司。 而仅用了四个多月，黄金就轻松突破了这一目标价格。国际金价从年初的2620美元/盎司涨至当前的3490.1美元/盎司，累计涨幅接近30%。 | | | | | 各机构对黄金的预测(美元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 树 构 最新预测 | | | | | 居 根 人 崩 4000 | | | | | 高 月 3700 | | | | | | 漫 第 年 行 3600 | | | | | 3500 | | | | | | 瑞 花友 | | | | | | 格 | | | | | | 観 開 नि | | | | | | 3500 3500 | | | | | @期货小褚根据最新数据整理 黄金会涨成普通人难以企及的"避险投资品"吗？还是十年牛市最后的疯狂？还能上车吗？这轮疯涨背后的推手到底是谁？ 搜狐号财经投向预言家栏目推出【十问黄金分析师】系列专栏，本期首篇邀请@期货小褚（ ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 避险情绪助推，金价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格继续维持强势运行，国际金价站上3250美 元/盎司，再创历史新高，银价在大幅下挫后上周也强势 反弹站上32美元/盎司上方。上周四特朗普对于超过175个 国家暂缓90天征收对等关税政策，但市场对全球贸易量萎 缩的担忧加剧。美元指数持续大幅下挫，提振贵金属价格 走势。 ⚫ 最新公布的美国3月CPI、PPI数据都低于市场预期，显示 短期通胀压力缓解。但市场预计关税政策可能在未来推高 通胀， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in gold prices and the significant inflow of funds into gold ETFs, driven by global risk aversion and expectations regarding U.S. tariffs, with many ETFs showing over 22% returns year-to-date [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price and ETF Performance - As of April 11, the spot price of gold in London reached a record high of $3,220.12 per ounce, with the Shanghai gold futures contract rising by 2.71% and a weekly increase exceeding 5% [3]. - The World Gold Council reported that in Q1 2025, global physical gold ETF net inflows reached 226 tons, valued at $21 billion, marking the highest quarterly inflow in nearly three years [3]. - The total estimated scale of 14 gold ETFs in the market is approximately 121.6 billion yuan, showing significant growth since the beginning of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Growth - Several smaller gold ETFs have experienced explosive growth, with some seeing their shares increase by over 100% year-to-date, such as the Jianxin Shanghai Gold ETF (161.31% increase) and the Bank of China Shanghai Gold ETF (148.02% increase) [4]. - Four gold ETFs have surpassed the 10 billion yuan scale, with the Huaan Gold ETF leading at 49.46 billion yuan, accounting for a significant market share [3]. Group 3: Premium Risks and Investor Caution - The rising gold prices have led to high premium risks for several gold funds, with some trading prices significantly exceeding their net asset values [6][7]. - Fund managers have warned investors about the dangers of blindly chasing high premiums, which could lead to substantial losses if market sentiment reverses [6][7]. - It is advised that ordinary investors closely monitor premium levels and policy trends when allocating gold assets through ETFs, and consider medium to long-term holding strategies to mitigate risks [7].