Core Insights - The establishment of new policy financial tools aims to transform policy dividends into development momentum, with an expected scale of around 500 billion yuan, potentially leveraging 6 to 6.5 trillion yuan in effective investment [1][9]. Group 1: Project Acceleration - Multiple provinces, including Anhui, Henan, and Hunan, have quickly responded to the new policy financial tools by holding meetings to interpret policies and plan projects [2]. - In Hunan, a meeting emphasized the importance of policy banks in facilitating project approvals and ensuring timely implementation of land consolidation projects [2]. - Anhui's meetings focused on key sectors such as industry, culture, agriculture, and urban construction, aiming to systematically identify and plan projects [2]. Group 2: Investment Direction - The new policy financial tools are expected to diversify investment directions, particularly towards strategic emerging sectors like technology innovation and consumer infrastructure, differing from traditional tools that mainly focused on infrastructure [4]. - The tools are designed to address capital shortages in key project areas, with a focus on digital economy, artificial intelligence, and low-altitude economy [4][6]. Group 3: Financial Mechanism - The new tools are characterized as "quasi-fiscal" instruments, primarily initiated by policy banks to address capital shortages in project construction, with a maximum capital injection of 50% of total project capital [7]. - The operational model of these tools is designed to enhance funding efficiency while minimizing fiscal burdens, as they rely on financial bond issuance and fiscal subsidies to lower financing costs [7][8]. Group 4: Expected Impact - The anticipated impact of the new policy financial tools includes a significant investment leverage effect, with projections suggesting they could drive 6 to 6.5 trillion yuan in effective investment, representing about 12% of the expected fixed asset investment in 2024 [9]. - Historical data indicates that previous policy financial tools have successfully mobilized substantial investments, demonstrating the potential effectiveness of the new tools [9].

Group 1: Policy Tools Overview - The new policy financial tools are expected to be implemented by the end of June 2025, driven by the National Development and Reform Commission's guidance and a stable economic foundation[2] - The first round of policy financial tools (2015-2017) issued approximately 2 trillion yuan, primarily targeting infrastructure and agricultural projects[4] - The second round in 2022 involved 740 billion yuan, focusing on major projects including new infrastructure and technological upgrades[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May 2025, retail sales of passenger cars increased by 13.0% year-on-year, indicating robust consumer demand[14] - Export-related indicators remain strong, with port cargo throughput increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in the 17th week post-Spring Festival[14] Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - New policy financial tools will support diverse sectors, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumer services[6] - Traditional infrastructure projects, such as water conservancy and transportation, will continue to receive funding to enhance social benefits[6] Group 4: Leveraging Effects - Policy financial tools exhibit strong leverage effects, enabling the mobilization of additional credit and social capital to bolster economic growth[5] - The tools are characterized by low-interest rates due to fiscal subsidies, alleviating local governments' debt servicing pressures while promoting sustainable fiscal practices[5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index increased to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity [2] - The new orders index rose to 49.8%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a positive trend in demand [2] Group 2: Export and Trade - The new export orders index and import index increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with rises of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [4] - The export container freight index rose by 0.9% to 1117.61 points, indicating a recovery in shipping rates [4] - Port cargo throughput reached 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, while container throughput rose to 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Experts emphasize the need for continued and coordinated efforts in growth-stabilizing policies to solidify the economic recovery [5][6] - The government is expected to enhance public investment to boost market demand and corporate orders, aiming to activate the domestic market [6] - New incremental policies are anticipated to be introduced by the end of June to support employment and economic stability [6]

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant "front-loading" of fiscal debt financing and expenditure structure, which has stabilized economic performance in the first half of the year [1][2][4] - From January to April 2025, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2%, indicating strong fiscal support for the economy [2][8] - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds, with net financing of 4.8 trillion yuan from January to April, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][21] Group 2 - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt, of which 6.3 trillion yuan has been financed by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32] - The issuance of treasury bonds has accelerated, with 42.7% of the budget target achieved by May 24, 2025, significantly higher than the average of 16.9% from 2020 to 2024 [3][21] - The government is expected to maintain high levels of net financing through the third quarter, with projections of 2.3 trillion yuan in the second quarter and 3.8 trillion yuan in the third quarter [4][35] Group 3 - The government may introduce incremental policies to smooth fiscal expenditure and ensure the achievement of annual economic goals, especially given uncertainties in economic recovery in the second half of the year [5][37] - Policy tools such as budgetary and non-budgetary measures will be utilized to stabilize economic fluctuations, with a focus on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment as key areas for fiscal support [6][50] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending by reducing burdens and increasing income, with significant potential for recovery in service consumption, which currently stands at only 87.7% of historical trends [50][51]

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant front-loading of fiscal debt financing, which has positively impacted expenditure performance. From January to April, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2% [2][8][72] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds. From January to April, the net financing of government debt was 4.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, becoming the core support for broad fiscal expenditure [3][21][73] - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt. As of the end of May, 6.3 trillion yuan has been net financed, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32][74] Group 2 - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is not due to improved revenue, as the cumulative fiscal revenue from January to April showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3%, falling short of the budget target by 1.5 percentage points, mainly due to declines in tax and land transfer revenues [2][14][72] - The government is expected to maintain a high level of net financing for government debt until the end of September, with the second quarter's net financing expected to increase by 2.3 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the third quarter maintaining a historically high level of 3.8 trillion yuan [4][35][74] - To smooth out economic fluctuations in the second half of the year, the government may introduce incremental policies to stabilize broad fiscal expenditure growth, especially given the uncertainties in economic recovery [5][37][74] Group 3 - Various policies are available to mitigate fluctuations in the second half of the year, including flexible budgetary tools and policy financial instruments that can be deployed quickly. The effectiveness of these tools has been validated in practice since 2022 [6][39][74] - The focus of incremental funding will be on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment, with an emphasis on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents to stimulate consumption [7][50][74] - The government is likely to consider additional funding if fiscal revenue falls short of budget targets, which could impact the support of fiscal expenditure for nominal GDP [7][44][74]

自4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"以来，金融部门快速 响应，在5月集中发布一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。目前，降准降息、新的结构性货币政策工 具、债券市场"科技板"等政策措施陆续落地。尽管一揽子金融政策举措正在持续发挥政策效能，但考虑 到部分领域的结构性矛盾依然有待解决，新型政策性金融工具仍有出台必要，市场机构预计在二季度落 地。新型政策性金融工具或创新支持稳定外贸和扩大有效投资。在受访专家看来，财政货币政策有望提 供配套支持，通过扩张抵押补充贷款(PSL)和中央财政贴息支持新工具实施。(人民财讯) ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has established a service consumption and elderly re-lending program with a total quota of 500 billion yuan, aimed at boosting financial support for key service sectors and the elderly industry [1][3][5]. Group 1: Policy Details - The service consumption and elderly re-lending program has a quota of 500 billion yuan, an interest rate of 1.5%, a term of 1 year, and can be extended twice, with a maximum usage period of 3 years [1][3]. - The program is available to 26 national financial institutions, including state-owned banks and major city commercial banks, and will be executed until the end of 2027 [3][5]. - Financial institutions can apply for re-lending based on the loans they issue, with the People's Bank of China responsible for verifying the authenticity of the loan information submitted [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Context - The initiative aligns with the directives from the Central Economic Work Conference and the Central Political Bureau meeting, focusing on expanding service consumption supply and boosting demand [3][4]. - The program is part of a broader strategy to enhance domestic demand and stabilize economic recovery, particularly in the service sector [5][6]. Group 3: Market Impact - Analysts believe the new policy tool will invigorate the service consumption and elderly markets, enhancing financial support for these sectors and stimulating domestic consumption potential [2][5]. - The program is seen as an upgrade from the previous 40 billion yuan inclusive elderly re-lending policy established in April 2022, reflecting a significant increase in support [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - By 2028, the goal is to establish a comprehensive elderly financial system, with a diverse range of financial products and services aimed at improving the welfare of residents [6]. - The program is expected to address disparities in public services between urban and rural residents, potentially unlocking further consumption growth [7].

Report Overview - The report is a macro financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro Financial Research Center on May 7, 2025 [2][3] Central Bank Operations and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 1087 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1617.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 1087 billion yuan and 530.8 billion yuan maturing on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively [4] - The Politburo meeting stated the need to "timely cut reserve - requirement ratios and interest rates", "create new structural monetary policy tools, and establish new policy - based financial tools to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade" [4] Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DRO01 | 1.71 | -7.58 | | DR007 | 1.73 | -7.14 | | GC001 | 1.71 | 17.00 | | GC007 | 1.74 | 1.50 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.75 | -0.20 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.60 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.46 | 0.25 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.51 | 0.75 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.63 | 0.50 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.36 | 3.00 | [3] Stock Index and Futures Market Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.01% to 3808.5, the SSE 50 rose 0.55% to 2647.7, the CSI 500 rose 1.93% to 5740.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.57% to 6102.9 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1336.2 billion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - Most industry sectors rose, with small metals, power equipment, consumer electronics, precious metals, general equipment, communication equipment, computer equipment, diversified finance, and motor sectors leading the gains, while only the banking sector declined [6] Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | Volume Change (%) | Open Interest Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Current Month | 3798 | 1.2 | 22.8 | 0.9 | | IH Current Month | 2646 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 0.0 | | IC Current Month | 5706 | 2.1 | 19.0 | 3.3 | | IM Current Month | 6060 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | [5] Market Outlook and Strategy - On the first trading day after the holiday, the A - share market showed a gap - up and high - going trend driven by the collective recovery of overseas markets, with IM leading the gains in index futures [7] - Two repair drivers are worthy of attention: the expectation of Sino - US tariff relaxation and the verification of overseas AI industry prosperity are beneficial to improving market liquidity and boosting the technology sector; after the earnings disclosure window in late April, the performance uncertainty of small - and medium - cap companies has significantly decreased [7] - The CSI 1000's repair strength has significantly lagged behind large - cap indexes such as the CSI 300. If the market continues to recover, its technical catch - up potential is worthy of attention. Historically, the average excess return of CSI 1000 index constituents during the earnings vacuum period (May - July) is 2.3% [7] - It is expected that the significant differentiation between large - and small - cap styles may converge. The strategy is to focus on the elasticity release opportunities of small - and medium - cap stocks after the market stabilizes, with IM as the main long - position variety [7] Index Futures Premium and Discount | Variety | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 10.49% | 9.02% | 7.04% | 5.35% | | IH Premium/Discount | 2.64% | 5.55% | 5.00% | 3.24% | | IC Premium/Discount | 22.09% | 16.72% | 11.98% | 9.90% | | IM Premium/Discount | 25.91% | 19.90% | 14.46% | 12.20% | [8]

不过，当下形势和924有很大不同，尽管受关税战冲击，但当前股票市场风险偏好已显著改善；同时4月zzj会议已 经召开，下一步政策方向部署已经定调（vs上一轮9·26zzj会议，9·24发布会更像是打前站）。 我们之前也反复强调，本轮应对外 华泰政策|关于5·07金融部门发布会前瞻 华泰政策|关于5·07金融部门发布会前瞻 ① 新闻发布会选择在开盘时间召开（9：00），形式和规格上都很像924，一行一局一会"一把手"集体亮相。 ① 新闻发布会选择在开盘时间召开（9：00），形式和规格上都很像924，一行一局一会"一把手"集体亮相。 不过，当下形势和924有很大不同，尽管受关税战冲击，但当前股票市场风险偏好已显著改善；同时4月zzj会议已 经召开，下一步政策方向部署已经定调（vs上一轮9·26zzj会议，9·24发布会更像是打前站）。 是双降or降准+结构性降息 or only降准？ 不同的组合对债券市场有不同含义。 我们认为，如果有降息指引，更大概率可能是结构性降息。 2）落实新的增量政策工具——创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具（科技消费和外贸）和推 出债市科技板；3）消费：服务消费与养老再贷款 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Data - DRO01 closed at 1.54, down 5.09 bp; DR007 closed at 1.78, up 3.35 bp; GC001 closed at 1.61, down 28.50 bp; GC007 closed at 1.68, down 17.00 bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.75, unchanged; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.60, unchanged; 1 - year treasury closed at 1.46, down 0.50 bp; 5 - year treasury closed at 1.51, down 2.00 bp; 10 - year treasury closed at 1.62, down 2.35 bp; 10 - year US treasury closed at 4.23, down 6.00 bp [3] - The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net investment of 120 billion yuan [3] - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the funds due on Thursday and Friday will be postponed to the first trading day after the holiday [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Options - The CSI 300 fell 0.17% to 3775.1; the SSE 50 fell 0.22% to 2645.5; the CSI 500 rose 0.12% to 5604.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.45% to 5903.4. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 34.3 billion yuan [5] - The central political bureau meeting on April 25 released limited incremental information on aggregate policies, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies and the refinement of support policies for specific areas [6] - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the better - than - expected Q1 economic data reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation for stock index futures is to hold a light position and wait for the market direction to become clear. Before the May Day holiday, consider the double - buying strategy for stock index options due to overseas uncertainties and low option volatility [6] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different levels of premium and discount rates for different delivery months [7]