开头先讲一个故事。 抗战时期，清华、北大、南开师生一路南迁。1937年九、十月后，他们陆续到了长沙。 他们虽是大学生，在那个年代算得上见识比较广的了。但到了长沙，大部分人感到十分新奇，甚至震撼。 清华经济系的蔡孝敏就回忆，长沙的店铺感觉是很宽很深，有一家名叫"九如"的吃食铺更是深不见底，"一望无际的架橱内摆满各式各类食品，十分壮观 令人目迷五味，馋涎欲滴"。 将近百年之后，长沙商业繁荣给世人的震撼不减反增。 就像有网友分享第一次去长沙旅游。晚上吃完小龙虾已经两点，寻思着回酒店休息，但走到外面却发现街上全是人，一度怀疑自己是不是看错时间了。 位于长沙的湖南黄金楼 摄影/窦超 更有说服力的是数字： 今年国庆期间（从9月30日至10月7日），长沙市的商品和服务销售总额高达270亿元，也就是每天有超过30亿的现金在这座城市流动。 放眼全国，长沙新消费是独具一格的。 就在上周，长沙已经进入消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市、国际化消费环境建设试点城市两个国家级消费试点公示。 长沙，为什么能？ 长沙夜景 摄影/孙允广 01 长沙，一座不夜城 长沙和夜，有着天注定般的浪漫渊源。 每天傍晚6点到第二天凌晨2时左右，是长沙市民、游 ...

Core Points - The 2025 Boao Forum for Entrepreneurs will be held from December 2 to 5 in Boao, Hainan, focusing on the theme "Linking the World, Leading the Future: New Opportunities in the 15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The forum aims to enhance confidence in China's high-quality economic development, improve corporate innovation capabilities, and promote mutually beneficial cooperation [1] Event Details - The forum will last four days and include a main forum along with numerous parallel sessions such as the Digital Technology Innovation Development Conference, New Consumption Development Forum, CEO Innovation Business Forum, Health Future Forum, "Finance+" Ecological Alliance Conference, High-Quality Development Forum for County Economy, and Cultural Economy Development Forum [1] - Special events will also be held to promote the Hainan Free Trade Port [1] Historical Context - The Boao Forum for Entrepreneurs has been held successfully for nine sessions since its inception in 2016, recognized as an annual intellectual feast for the business community [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Hong Kong consumer sector, highlighting the rapid growth of instant retail, particularly in categories such as sports and outdoor, beauty, digital appliances, and pet products, which have outpaced the overall market growth. Traditional food and beverage categories are experiencing relatively weak growth [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Instant Retail Growth**: Instant retail has shown remarkable growth, with certain categories doubling their growth rates compared to the overall market. New consumption sectors are performing well both online and offline, with strong growth in new categories, demographics, and channels [1][2]. - **AI Technology Impact**: AI technology significantly enhances efficiency through precise marketing and consumer insights. Brands are encouraged to invest more in AI tools to capture consumer demand and predict product trends, thereby improving advertising conversion rates [1][4]. - **K-Shaped Market Recovery**: The market is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, where high-end products and cost-effective brands coexist. High-end products require value redefinition, while cost-effective brands leverage supply chain optimization to reduce prices [1][5][6]. - **Focus on Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns**: Essential consumer sectors emphasize certainty and shareholder returns, with a focus on companies with abundant free cash flow that can enhance shareholder returns through dividends or buybacks [1][7]. - **Potential in Health Supplements**: The health supplement industry is identified as a potential hidden champion due to the aging population and increasing health demands, with a strong growth outlook for anti-aging ingredients like ergothioneine [1][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Valuation of Consumer Sector**: The Hong Kong consumer sector is currently valued at historical lows, with the Hang Seng Consumer Index PE close to the 20th percentile over the past decade, indicating market pessimism [3][10]. - **Z Generation Consumer Behavior**: The Z generation is shifting from functional purchases to emotional and experiential ones, significantly impacting the essential consumer sector. This demographic is also price-sensitive, favoring high-cost-performance brands [3][15]. - **Risks in Essential Consumer Sector**: Despite its defensive nature, the essential consumer sector faces risks such as rising raw material costs and potential declines in consumer purchasing power during economic downturns [13][14]. - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Investors are advised to assess their risk profiles and consider funds that cover essential industries for stability, while more aggressive investors may explore high-volatility sectors like liquor [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Hong Kong consumer sector.

从长期看，渗透率提升空间仍大，连锁化率与集中度持续提升。2023年，国内人均现制茶饮年消费量为 11杯，而中国香港及中国台湾地区则均超50杯。现制茶饮的渗透率成长空间广阔，随着未来新客群渗 透、消费频次提升，现制茶饮规模有望实现进一步增长。尤其是下沉市场的空间潜力大，2023年国内一 线城市的人均消费为27杯，二线及以下城市为不到10杯，引发龙头企业关注和深挖。从结构来看，行业 连锁化率与集中度持续提升，2023年中国现制茶饮连锁化率（门店口径）为56.1%，较2018年提升17.1 个百分点。近年来各头部品牌保持快速拓店，而中小品牌持续出清，预计行业集中度仍将持续提升。 中国拥有悠久的茶文化和庞大的茶消费群体，但繁琐的传统沏茶步骤限制了消费者，特别是年轻群体对 茶的消费。现制茶饮的出现大大简化了制作过程，并通过不断优化产品获得更多年轻人青睐。在这一过 程中，产生了"珍珠奶茶"等经典产品。2015年，新茶饮概念横空出世，现制茶饮品牌开始使用原叶茶、 鲜奶、鲜果等优质原料，产品品质明显提升。尤其是随着头部茶饮品牌规模化发展和供应链升级，更多 消费者能够通过实惠的价格享受高品质产品，行业逐步实现结构性升级。 近些 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：财信证券研究） 大势研判。上周在海外市场调整影响下，万得全A指数阶段性向下调整，跌破震荡调整区间，短期仍需合理控制仓位，静待指数企 稳信号出现。一是从资金面来看，11月底之前机构倾向于守住全年收益，加仓意愿不强，但12月中旬开始，机构资金将逐步开始布 局2026年方向，存在"抢跑"的预期；二是中央经济工作会议通常在12月中旬召开，将为明年经济工作指明方向，预计在中央经济工 作会议前后，政策预期利好将支撑市场；三是从技术形态来看，2015年以来，上证指数曾屡次挑战3700点未果，本次有效突破3700 点以后，上证指数3700点附近将从"强压力位"转为"强支撑位"，后续指数调整空间可能有限。我们对中长期市场走势仍然保有信 心，A股这一轮"牛市"并未结束，我们预计12月中旬前后，市场将迎来再次做多的机会窗口期。 投资建议。短期建议适当控制仓位水平，以防守方向为主，适当关注：（1）高股息的大盘蓝筹。例如银行、保险、公用事业、交通 运输等。（2）新消费方向。例如健康、文旅、体育、美容护理、IP经济、宠物经济、文化娱乐等。（3）"反内卷"方向。例如钢 铁、煤炭、建材等。（4）AI应用方向。例如传媒 ...

近期，多家国内外机构发布2026年度策略报告。各家金融机构报告显示，明年中国经济将延续稳健增长 态势。 多家机构对2026年中国经济走势形成积极共识，认为在政策支持、结构升级与潜力释放的多种利好叠加 之下，经济将持续稳健上升。 光大证券首席宏观分析师 赵格格：在超大规模市场和强大产业体系的协同作用下，我国还有较大的经 济增长潜力与提质升级空间，宏观政策工具箱储备充足。 外资机构普遍预测，明年中国经济将在政策支持下保持稳健增长。摩根士丹利认为，在适度的宽松政 策、渐进的再平衡以及有节制的"反内卷"措施下，2026年中国经济将温和增长。瑞银预计2026年国内将 施行更加精准的政策支持，经济活动整体将保持韧性。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室亚太经济学家 菲利普·怀亚特：比如为企业提供能源成本方面的优惠或补 贴，面向消费者的补贴；对首套房购房者的支持等，这些都属于"定向支持"。 此外，"十五五"规划建议也令外资机构充满信心。高盛认为，规划建议体现了中国将进一步提升先进制 造业竞争力，提振出口的决心和能力。基于此，高盛上调了对中国出口增速和实际GDP增速的预测。 与此同时，内需市场的潜力正加速释放。随着一系列促消费、惠民 ...

Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining caution in the short term and waiting for market stabilization [5][9] - The overall A-share market has seen a decline, with the Wind All A Index dropping by 3.17% to 6030.56 points, and various indices reflecting similar downward trends [7][8] Economic Insights - In October, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 10.4% year-on-year, reaching 857.2 billion kWh [15][16] - The breakdown of electricity consumption shows significant growth in the tertiary industry, particularly in charging services and information technology sectors [16] Industry Dynamics - A meeting was held to promote stable livestock production, noting that the number of breeding sows fell below 40 million by the end of October [25] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the livestock sector for potential price stabilization due to production adjustments [25] Company Updates - Baili Tianheng (688506.SH) received acceptance for its drug application for the first-in-class EGFR×HER3 dual antibody ADC for treating advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma [27][28] - Jindi Co., Ltd. (603270.SH) signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Dongpei Co., Ltd. to collaborate on humanoid robot harmonic reducer assemblies [29][30] - Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ) successfully secured small batch orders for ball screws and roller screws through negotiations with a leading foreign screw manufacturer [31][32] Local Economic Developments - Hengguang Co., Ltd. (301118.SZ) reported a reduction in shareholding by a major shareholder, which did not significantly impact the company's governance structure [33] - The Hunan provincial government launched the first phase of its public data circulation infrastructure, marking a significant step in digital economic development [34]

广发证券批零社服首席分析师 嵇文欣 中国拥有悠久的茶文化和庞大的茶消费群体，但繁琐的传统沏茶步骤限制了消费者，特别是年轻群体对 茶的消费。现制茶饮的出现大大简化了制作过程，并通过不断优化产品获得更多年轻人青睐。在这一过 程中，产生了"珍珠奶茶"等经典产品。2015年，新茶饮概念横空出世，现制茶饮品牌开始使用原叶茶、 鲜奶、鲜果等优质原料，产品品质明显提升。尤其是随着头部茶饮品牌规模化发展和供应链升级，更多 消费者能够通过实惠的价格享受高品质产品，行业逐步实现结构性升级。 近些年标杆性企业的优秀表现，让资本市场进一步认识到现制茶饮行业的发展潜力，并将板块贴上了新 消费的标签。不少投资者也对这一赛道表现出了浓厚兴趣。针对现制茶饮行业，我们可以从供需两侧、 长短期驱动、短期外卖补贴影响等维度展开分析。 益，而部分中小品牌加盟商很可能出现增收不增利的情况。 随着外卖补贴大战趋于理性，市场担心后续同店营业额是否仍有增长支撑、明年4月起的同店营业额高 基数压力，以及补贴教育出的低价习惯或将使消费者对原价茶饮的接受度降低。基于对行业的分析，我 们认为：（1）头部品牌拳头产品优惠力度相对较低，做活动的产品大多为低价引流品，产 ...

New Products - 羴牧欧铂佳 launched a new goat milk powder with high OPO content of 4.6g/100g and a dual prebiotic combination (FOS+GOS) [7] - FILA introduced the new "4810 Peak Goose Down" series of down jackets designed for extreme weather conditions [5] - 京东 officially launched its fresh coffee brand "七鲜咖啡" [5] - Kiri released a new product combining French cheese with crispy cookies, available in strawberry and blueberry flavors [10] - 盼盼食品 launched a customized butter layer toast in collaboration with 永辉超市, featuring ≥12% butter and ≥20% fresh milk [12] - 哈根达斯 announced winter new products including various ice cream flavors and desserts [13] - "茶颜悦色" is entering the coffee market with a new sub-brand and a unique coffee menu [18] - 斯凯奇 formed a strategic partnership with 美团闪购 to expand its market presence [18] - 飞鹤's 星飞帆 product won the prestigious Italian A' Design Award [11] - 太平鸟 showcased its "PEACEBIRD Starry Realm" pop-up event in Xi'an [11] - Sony acquired the film rights for the Labubu character, expanding its entertainment portfolio [11] Industry Events - Apple plans to shift its iPhone release strategy to twice a year starting in 2026, marking a significant change in its product launch approach [16] - 名创优品 registered the trademarks MINISO FRIENDS and MINISO LAND, indicating new store formats [18] - 斯凯奇 and 美团闪购's partnership will see over 200 stores in more than 40 cities collaborating [18] - 北京's largest Sam's Club is set to open on November 21 [18] - Babycare's diapers will be available in over 170 Kids Plaza stores in Vietnam [20] - 湖南 opened its first robot 4S store, showcasing various smart robots [20] - 京东外卖 will launch a standalone app, enhancing its delivery service [21] Investment Trends - Cur sor raised $2.3 billion in D round funding with investments from major firms including Google and Nvidia [22] - 欧莱雅 invested in the Chinese skincare brand LAN, indicating a focus on local brands [24] - 运动营养品牌 "迈胜" completed nearly 100 million yuan in A round financing led by 仙乐健康 [25] - 腾迈医药 raised $22 million in A+ round funding from prominent investors [26] - "新叶 NEAVES" secured 30 million yuan in angel round financing for product development [26] - 智能耳环 brand Lumia announced $7 million in funding, bringing total funding to $17.2 million [26] - 沃兰特航空 raised several hundred million yuan in B+ round funding, positioning itself as a leader in the eVTOL sector [27] - SKIMS achieved a valuation of $5 billion after raising $225 million [28] - 婴之坊 received a 10 million yuan investment aimed at facilitating its IPO [28] - 康诺思腾 completed $200 million in D round financing with backing from various venture capital firms [28] Food Industry Developments - 果子熟了 launched a new zero-calorie, zero-caffeine barley tea [29] - 纽仕兰牧场 introduced a high-protein milk product rich in Omega-3 [29] - 沃尔玛 upgraded its private label brand, introducing nearly a thousand new or improved products [29] - 全家 Fami l yMart opened 15 new stores in Yangzhou, marking a significant expansion [29] - 妙可蓝多's cheese product was selected as a featured food for Shanghai tourism in 2025 [30] - 古茗 launched a new slow-cooked series featuring premium ingredients [30] - 飞鹤's 星飞帆 product won the Italian A' Design Award for its design excellence [31] - 王老吉's WALOVI international can was launched in Malaysia, expanding its market reach [31] - 北海牧场 will operate independently from 元气森林, indicating a strategic shift [31] - 海底捞's 小嗨爱炸 brand opened its first pizza store, diversifying its offerings [32] Beauty Industry Movements - Garmin launched two new products in its instinct series, targeting fitness enthusiasts [34] - 太平鸟's pop-up event in Xi'an showcased a blend of art, technology, and fashion [34] - Dr. Martens collaborated with Marc Jacobs to release a new boot design [37] - 泡泡玛特 introduced a new IP, expanding its product line [37] - GARCON BY GARCON opened its first store in Shanghai, emphasizing cultural dialogue through design [37] - Sony acquired the film rights for Labubu, expanding its entertainment portfolio [38] - lululemon unveiled the Canadian national team gear for the 2026 Winter Olympics [38] - Hourglass's founder plans to launch a new makeup brand, focusing on high-performance products [40] - 雅诗兰黛 acquired a minority stake in the Mexican luxury perfume brand Xinú, marking its first investment in Latin America [40] - LV's women's leather goods director Johnny Coca has stepped down after over five years [40]

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 短期保持谨慎，静待市场企稳 财信证券宏观策略周报（11.24-11.28） 2025 年 11 月 23 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -0.75 1.82 13.86 沪深 300 -1.86 4.27 11.74 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。上周在海外市场调整影响下，万得全 A 指数阶段性向下调整，跌 破震荡调整区间，短期仍需合理控制仓位，静待指数企稳信号出现。一是从 资金面来看，11 月底之前机构倾向于守住全年收益，加仓意愿不强，但 12 月 中旬开始，机构资金将逐步开始布局 2026 年方向，存在"抢跑"的预期；二 是中央经济工作会议通常在 12 月中旬召开，将为明年经济工作指明方向，预 计在中央经济工作会议前后，政策预期利好将支撑市场；三是从技术形态来 看，201 ...